Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

I think a fundamental problem with the analyses of these wall street types is that they can't comprehend the power of the HODL.

Many of the early adopters, who are still HODLing, got involved in bitcoin to begin with for philosophical, moral, or political reasons. These HODLers are fundamentally different from 99.9% of people/organizations who are long on a stock.

The typical equities investor will take profits at fairly predictable intervals, and cut their losses at fairly predictable levels. Bitcoin HODLers realize they're invested in a world changing technology that has an incomprehensible upside in price still.

Agree. It's also about liquidity. The way IPOs are launched, 99% of stock shares are insta-mined and distributed to the founders, employees, angel investors, and hedge fund traders. The remaining 1% hits the exchange float and gets leveraged up 1000X. Then trading bots take over.

Over time more liquidity is provided from the first 99% stock insta-mine on a release schedule. Large pools of stock shares get into the hands of mega whales, who from which you are just leasing stock as an IOU when you purchase stock. In addition to that, what is believed to happen is some deep pocketed wealthy elite calls up and says "Hey, can I get some more shares over here?" and either 1) some more shares get released and change hands, or 2) extra shares are just magically conjured into existence (either just fraudulently created, or through "phantom sharing" fractional reserve, or both).

More info here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/systemic-risk-pffft-my-friends-systemic-risk

So, in the equity world you find that 99% of shares START OFF in the hands of the elites and whale traders and they control everything a particular stock might do. It's a club and they know and trust all the inner circle members. And they know that retail investors have a minimal effect on the performance of a stock.

However in the Bitcoin world, 90% of bitcoins mined have STARTED OFF in the hands of Average Joes and they are in control. And that worries the establishment. They're not part of the club, the inner circle (because there isn't one). They worry that there's some demented, libertarian Average Joe out there sitting on a half million coins with crazy thoughts, that might on a whim decide to mega dump on the market one day in the future. Or just as bad, may never part with his coins.

This is why the establishment have no control over the initial liquidity of bitcoin in the market. And they won't for a really long time. I suspect it will be a slow ramp up for them and they will get frustrated. Trying to continuously pump and dump is the only way they can "shake the tree" to try and get some more coins to fall out.

[1714809974]

1714809974

[Meuh6879]

Source : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/defense-bitcoin-hoarding

Under old-style Keynesian theory, economic growth is driven by consumer spending, not saving, so anyone who is hoarding money under the mattress is holding back progress. Hoarders are the enemy. “Every such attempt to save more by reducing consumption will so affect incomes,” wrote J.M Keynes, “that the attempt necessarily defeats itself.” He popularized what became known as the “Paradox of Thrift.”

It’s supposed to be counterintuitive. You think that saving up for the future is a good thing. Whoops, you are hurting others and, in the long run, hurting yourself. You should be spending, even going into debt to spend.

But sometimes “counterintuitive” is just wrong. That is the case here. There is no paradox. The intuition is right. Thrift is a good thing, on the individual level or for the whole society. Deferring consumption is the necessary precondition to permit saving. Saving is never wasteful. It’s true that infinite saving is pointless but that’s not how this works.

You are always saving for something. The end of saving is eventual consumption in some form. More importantly for economic growth, saving is the precondition for investment. Investment is what extends the complexity of the structure of production. This leads to employment, expansion of the division of labor, and the eventual rise of wealth.

[lightfoot]

Here's a wild firstworldproblem.  I'm torn.  On one hand, I have ALWAYS wanted a Ferrari.  Here I am able to buy one, something I never thought would happen.  I could sell now, get my ferrari and be happy.  On the other hand, I could hodl, it could either go up or down.  If it goes down, I feel satisfied with my choice.  If it goes up, I will feel some regret but fuck it, I have a god damn ferrari.  I have a house and no debt, perhaps I'm just being greedy at this point and should get the one thing I've wanted and be happy with it.  Fucking wild decision I never thought I'd even have to make.   

Main problem is maintenance. You can buy the Ferrari, but can you afford the time/parts/etc to maintain it? They can be finicky.

Thus you need to make enough to support it. Other cars may have a lower maintenance cost and have benefits like being able to live in them when times are bad (see my posts on my homeless friend who lived in his Maybach).

C

[Ludwig Von]

Source : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/defense-bitcoin-hoarding

Under old-style Keynesian theory, economic growth is driven by consumer spending, not saving, so anyone who is hoarding money under the mattress is holding back progress. Hoarders are the enemy. “Every such attempt to save more by reducing consumption will so affect incomes,” wrote J.M Keynes, “that the attempt necessarily defeats itself.” He popularized what became known as the “Paradox of Thrift.”

It’s supposed to be counterintuitive. You think that saving up for the future is a good thing. Whoops, you are hurting others and, in the long run, hurting yourself. You should be spending, even going into debt to spend.

But sometimes “counterintuitive” is just wrong. That is the case here. There is no paradox. The intuition is right. Thrift is a good thing, on the individual level or for the whole society. Deferring consumption is the necessary precondition to permit saving. Saving is never wasteful. It’s true that infinite saving is pointless but that’s not how this works.

You are always saving for something. The end of saving is eventual consumption in some form. More importantly for economic growth, saving is the precondition for investment. Investment is what extends the complexity of the structure of production. This leads to employment, expansion of the division of labor, and the eventual rise of wealth.

Good reading. (Between all the sensational soars-crashes).

For who might be interested : this is part one from a five part essay publishing on the Automatic Earth :

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/12/bitcoin-doesnt-exist-1/

[Torque]

As far as expensive cars go, don't buy the hype.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/03/millionaire-athletes-who-drive-super-cheap-cars.html

[AlcoHoDL]

As far as expensive cars go, don't buy the hype.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/03/millionaire-athletes-who-drive-super-cheap-cars.html

I never liked those super-expensive cars... Most of them are way over-priced, offer no real design/technology innovation, consume lots of fuel, and some are really ugly to my taste (Lambos included).

I'd prefer a good Japanese, super-reliable and normally-priced car. Or a car with real innovation in its design, like a Tesla (provided they sort out their QC issues).

This would not change at all if I had 10, 100, or 1000 BTC.

[Phil_S]

Most luxury items are stupid, from "limited edition sneakers" to diamonds to those "super" cars.

Basically a "stupid tax".

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Most luxury items are stupid, from "limited edition sneakers" to diamonds to those "super" cars.

Basically a "stupid tax".

Well, I guess they serve a purpose in signalling wealth for people who want to use that to attract people of the opposite sex, but I mostly agree with you on the "stupid tax" thing.

[Torque]

Most luxury items are stupid, from "limited edition sneakers" to diamonds to those "super" cars.

Basically a "stupid tax".

Well, I guess they serve a purpose in signalling wealth for people who want to use that to attract people of the opposite sex, but I mostly agree with you on the "stupid tax" thing.

I had a high school football coach that got divorced during my first year. Then he goes out and buys a Porsche 911. Gets a new girlfriend, dates for a year, then gets married again. Then gets rid of the Porsche (probably because she asked him to).

A few years later, he's divorced again. Probably because he got rid of the Porsche. 

[Imbatman]

As far as expensive cars go, don't buy the hype.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/03/millionaire-athletes-who-drive-super-cheap-cars.html

I never liked those super-expensive cars... Most of them are way over-priced, offer no real design/technology innovation, consume lots of fuel, and some are really ugly to my taste (Lambos included).

I'd prefer a good Japanese, super-reliable and normally-priced car. Or a car with real innovation in its design, like a Tesla (provided they sort out their QC issues).

This would not change at all if I had 10, 100, or 1000 BTC.

We've always liked buying slightly used higher end cars.  Have had Cadillacs, Lexus and most recently BMW of late.  Wife got a 328ix and I just got a used 550ix.  Hands down best car I've ever had, and probably will stay brand loyal for a while. 

But I'm cheap too.  The 550 is a 2011 with 100,000 miles and it had it's engine replaced at mile 80,000 so it was sitting on the lot for around 90 days $3,000 under blue book.  I was like, "but it has a brand new engine" and snapped it up.  Been driving it a year with no problems whatsoever.  And she moves.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Here's a wild firstworldproblem.  I'm torn.  On one hand, I have ALWAYS wanted a Ferrari.  Here I am able to buy one, something I never thought would happen.  I could sell now, get my ferrari and be happy.  On the other hand, I could hodl, it could either go up or down.  If it goes down, I feel satisfied with my choice.  If it goes up, I will feel some regret but fuck it, I have a god damn ferrari.  I have a house and no debt, perhaps I'm just being greedy at this point and should get the one thing I've wanted and be happy with it.  Fucking wild decision I never thought I'd even have to make.   

Main problem is maintenance. You can buy the Ferrari, but can you afford the time/parts/etc to maintain it? They can be finicky.

Thus you need to make enough to support it. Other cars may have a lower maintenance cost and have benefits like being able to live in them when times are bad (see my posts on my homeless friend who lived in his Maybach).

C

Linki, please.

Either way, what are you talking about ? My goal is, to smash this Maybach into a wall, and walk away like i just let a fart . . .  

[ghandi]

Looks like the Bitcoin Train is leaving again

[Phil_S]

yeah, +1k in two hours, no big deal. 

[Richy_T]

Ridiculous conspiracy all in your head and in the heads of the other r/btc nutjobs.. including Ver, jihan and Craig... .. all circle jerking the same bullshit censorship nonsense over something that more or less did not exist... except for the purpose of whining, distracting and trying to change the governance of bitcoin with the various attacks and nonsense.

Thank you for providing a prime example of the toxic approach Richy_T was describing.

I don't even mind toxic too much. I've been on the internet a long time and have a very thick skin. The actions JJG are poo-pooing are well documented and can be seen in external sites which track deletions. You only have to look at the sub now and see how cultivated the narrative is there. Some of the stuff floating around on r/btc has little to no foundation but there's plenty that's well-proven. That's just the risks of having an uncensored sub though. It depends if you prefer to use your own brain or the mods...

But this is a wall thread and I don't want to get deep into all that. Amazed not to have seen a huge movement while I slept and pleased to see my transaction eventually went through.

[svdleer]

Looks like the Bitcoin Train is leaving again

yeah, +1k in two hours, no big deal. 

Still strong downforce

[Dotto]

The price high is the wet dream of hodlers. And this price jumps is the wet dream of every trader. You can not love bitcoin.

Go fuckers, go

[TERA2]

Hey Tera

Remind me, what was the bottom before that rally?

It was $2.

$265/$2 = 132.5

$17171 / $152.4 = 112.6

Almost there

[Richy_T]

I like these small dips. It shows that the current Bitcoin growth is healthy and not a bubble.

Definitely. It could still be a bit of a bubble but the constant rise was unnerving.

[Richy_T]

Source : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-07/defense-bitcoin-hoarding

Under old-style Keynesian theory, economic growth is driven by consumer spending, not saving, so anyone who is hoarding money under the mattress is holding back progress. Hoarders are the enemy. “Every such attempt to save more by reducing consumption will so affect incomes,” wrote J.M Keynes, “that the attempt necessarily defeats itself.” He popularized what became known as the “Paradox of Thrift.”

Keynes was a hack. I think he only gained favor because he allowed governments to rationalize their kleptocratic behavior to the masses. And the masses actually buy it.

[Richy_T]

I never liked those super-expensive cars... Most of them are way over-priced, offer no real design/technology innovation, consume lots of fuel, and some are really ugly to my taste (Lambos included).

I'd prefer a good Japanese, super-reliable and normally-priced car. Or a car with real innovation in its design, like a Tesla (provided they sort out their QC issues).

Definitely. I'm currently driving a 2000 TDI VW Jetta with 280,000 miles I paid cash for. I've had a new car on my radar for a while now but this one just keeps on keeping on. My replacement wishlist is pretty modest too (though it does include a Tesla ).