Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.

[Its About Sharing]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

Wow, big news!

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

[hlynur]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

doesn't quite fit the subject, but however i have to throw in that article
as it's a very interesting read about Hawala - an old method for trading money (that roots back to the eighth century)

http://mkshft.org/2013/07/thin-wire

[byronbb]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

Wow, big news!

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

That makes sense because that is where the weakest fiat is issued.

[rezurect]

offtopic:

ASICMiner- Letting the cat out of the bag.

Recent analysis has led me to some interesting conclusions. I would like to present them to the community for discussion. Feel free to shoot holes in it as you desire.

In the early 1990's, Microsoft made a huge investment in their direct competitor, Apple. Apple was failing, and common wisdom dictated that this was done to keep from getting impaled by anti-trust lawsuits. I would suggest that it was nothing of the sort. I believe they were just doing it to grow the market, so that the value of their share would increase. Witness AM. AM has demonstrated a capability to completely dominate the entire global hash if they so desired. I don't think this is conjecture, but rather a demonstrable fact. But unlike Microsoft, they had to deal with a very important restraint: they could not ever under and circumstances breach 50% of market share. This placed a practical limit on their growth. They could never grow to more than 50% of the current hash. So what is the obvious solution? Increase the hash that they do not control, and the easiest way to do that is to supply their competitor (Joe and Jane miner) with devices that could hash. AM, in order to grow, increased the hash of their competition by selling them hardware that they could have easily put into their own farm. AM effectively put themselves into the catbird seat by not only profiting from their own farm, but from hardware sales as well. The tertiary profit came from increased hashrate allowing them to expand even further. They raised the value of the cap.

I have no doubt that many have realized this strategy already, in fact, there have been several posts that have alluded it to it. What I think most have missed however is much more complicated.

As specialized hardware is required to make any sort of profit, the actual number of miners has been decreasing. The costs of obtaining the latest hardware continue to increase leading to only one conclusion: That eventually no individual will be able to own hardware capable of hashing a profit. We will eventually reach a point where there exist only a handful of companies with the resources to purchase and operate the hardware required... and instead of owning hardware, we will all own shares in farms. Just as the wildcat oil-drillers gave way to Standard Oil. But Friedcat has a trick up his sleeve, there will be no Standard Oil. Friedcat appears to have embarked on a strategy that pays attention to history. He knows the result of a monopoly, and knows it is poison to bitcoins. He welcomes the competition. he encourages it, and above all else, he profits from it. He knows he needs it. So he ensures it exists.

Where will this lead? The obvious conclusion is a system wherein Friedcat runs the bitcoin mining ecosystem in the same manner the federal Reserve manages dollars. A total domination on almost every level. Avalon kicking up the hash? Excellent, we can just increase to match, and sell even more block erupters to everyone who is trying to keep up. More profit for shareholders. BFL actually delivering? Pop the cork, we can now bring another 10 Terrahash online and sell even more USB miners! More profit for shareholders!

And so, we end up with AM ensuring no entity ever gets 51%, protecting the bitcoin system, and rewarding shareholders with an almost endless stream of dividends. It almost looks like it is all tied up with a pretty bow. When you read it like this, it is hard to wonder if Friedcat and Satoshi might be in some way... related.

Oh, well, off to bed. It was a good bedtime story if nothing else. Please deposit the tinfoil hats in the bin as you leave.

[byronbb]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

doesn't quite fit the subject, but however i have to throw in that article
as it's a very interesting read about Hawala - an old method for trading money (that roots back to the eighth century)

http://mkshft.org/2013/07/thin-wire

Imagine entities that wished to move large value assets over borders without declaration or taxation. They convert it to bitcoin from A then sell it in B. If the local bitcoin market place becomes robust enough, this could be performed at a cloud type level.

[gandhibt]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.

Gox did not give any date when the trading engine would come online or that it will include LTC. I'm waiting for dates before I buy back to LTC. It is possible that there's no LTC support in the first release of the new trading engine. I'm not sure is this the best choice thou.

[Jaroslaw]

I might help you guys reach 72$ again

[wonkytonky]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

Wow, big news!

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

like china price.. did not move

[wonkytonky]

I might help you guys reach 72$ again

iI might help you guys up to 85 

i'm sure 1 of us is right

[Jaroslaw]

I might help you guys reach 72$ again

iI might help you guys up to 85 

i'm sure 1 of us is right

in your dreams bro

[molecular]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

the news is pretty awesome recently. not only mtgox, etf, but also german taxation clarification, the m-pesa bitcoin client I just mentioned, visa/mastercard banning VPN providers, flattr adding bitcoin as funding option,...

these are substantial news, too, in the sense that they will actually effect an increase of use of Bitcoin (what everybody is demanding: we need to grow the bitcoin economy) and also an increase in exposure.

based on that a bull can hope.

[ChartBuddy]

[Richy_T]

Are we at 180 yet?

I think he meant 180 m$

[hlynur]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

doesn't quite fit the subject, but however i have to throw in that article
as it's a very interesting read about Hawala - an old method for trading money (that roots back to the eighth century)

http://mkshft.org/2013/07/thin-wire

Imagine entities that wished to move large value assets over borders without declaration or taxation. They convert it to bitcoin from A then sell it in B. If the local bitcoin market place becomes robust enough, this could be performed at a cloud type level.

jep, it seemed to me like a human peer-to-peer financial system when i read that article.
that's still the big question mark for me how authorities would react if this becomes more common.
right now authorities in europe try to get more hold of  tax evasion (like in suisse, luxembourg or liechtenstein). at some point btc will be adapted for such procedures when people need new possiblities for avoiding taxes or laundering money .

[oda.krell]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.

You can turn it any way you want, those *are* good news. Maybe you're sceptical about them, but for those who trade on mtgox, this press release is almost certainly better news than the previous where they announced they'd stop (automatically) processing them.

Similar with the ETF. Sure, might take a while before it becomes reality, maybe it'll never do... that's not the point I made in my post however: I recognized we're in a downtrend, but that I'm somewhat nervous because of the relatively good news recently, and that I recognize the possibility that it might turn around soon. Nitpicking about the *exact* quality of goodness of the news doesn't influence that argument, in my opinion.

[ManBearPig]

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hn0ue/kipochi_launches_first_bitcoin_wallet_in_africa/

interesting

This is indeed very big. It's exactly what we were looking for, to get into the same market as MPESA. Thanks for the share.

[Its About Sharing]

I don't see a trend reversal, not even short term. Only the most fine-grained of the indicators I look at saw a swing in the other direction, everything else indicates we're going down further, or are at least not about to go up rapidly, within the next 24h.

I am however mildly nervous because my gut feeling tells me that recent news (Bitcoin ETF, mtgox press release re: wire transfers) are comparably positive, and we've reached a price level that, say, 4 weeks ago would have had people salivating. In other words, I don't trust this downtrend.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.

You can turn it any way you want, those *are* good news. Maybe you're sceptical about them, but for those who trade on mtgox, this press release is almost certainly better news than the previous where they announced they'd stop (automatically) processing them.

Similar with the ETF. Sure, might take a while before it becomes reality, maybe it'll never do... that's not the point I made in my post however: I recognized we're in a downtrend, but that I'm somewhat nervous because of the relatively good news recently, and that I recognize the possibility that it might turn around soon. Nitpicking about the *exact* quality of goodness of the news doesn't influence that argument, in my opinion.

I'm not trying to turn anything. MtGox is almost back to functional regarding outgoing wires. Do you understand that the initial announcement cause a boost in BTC price as it was the only way for those affected to get money off Gox? I think Gox has done a lot for the BTC community and I know being #1 comes with costs.

The ETF thing can be a good way to hedge bets but I think it is must for large investors. Who does it benefit? I mean to buy Gold ETF's make sense, but bitcoin is already digital. It is pretty easy to buy as well. It seems the ETF, at least so far, benefits the twins and not so much BTC (though like I said it is advertising but I have a feeling that is not why the twins did it.)

I'm a huge long term BTC Bull, just in case you get the wrong idea. But I don't see either of these things as great news. Just my opinion (and so far the market seems to agree, but only so far...)

Oh, I'm not nitpicking about the news, I just pretty much disagree with you.

The Kipochi announcement above I think is really exciting and potentially great news.

[rezurect]

offtopic: http://kipochi.com/

[Its About Sharing]

Not perfect (missing a bit on the second candle) but this does look like a symmetrical triangle coming off clear down movement. Am I reaching?  
(Then again you can have the triangle, albeit small, start 2 candles later. To complete we need to hit 81 or so and then move back down next candle over.)

This is a 4 hour chart so the outcome should be later today or by tomorrow.