Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

Waking up to see this ...another completely failed rally attempt... I think there might be some panic today
60's on their way soon ... have to say, I didn't think it would happen so quickly
What do you think Rampion and IAS ?

I said this yesterday, think I was day off.  

A move up to 86 or so and then a bit of selling to bring things back down is possible. That will then create a nice spinning top candle. Some indecision for a day or two and then continue with the down trend.

I hope quoting myself isn't too egocentric in appearance. At least IAS doesn't talk about himself in the 3rd person... oops...  

Seriously, what we are seeing is quite clear and a few of us have mention it - All rallies are being sold into. Once the walls are built on the buy side they are being sold into.
The danger lies in when those walls are not quite rebuilt and then sold into. When that happens be very very very careful not to go long!

But we all know this can change on a dime, so even though many of us here are short to mid term bearish, it is wise to be careful and not ignorant...

And what do you think? You have had some good points as I recall...

Well, I was kind of with you on a day or two of holding/rally before resuming the downtrend. I thought we would have  a bit more of a bounce off 72. That we are straight back down here looks BAD to me. I know I boldly predicted $50 this week, based off the breakout of the massive triangle on the weekly chart. I am starting to believe it is a possibility.
Bottom to top ($72 - $85) in 4 hours,sideways for 12 and then just then just falling over like this ... I think we are about to go down HARD and see the real knife
I covered all my shorts yesterday, but have now re-opened them plus some, so I am putting my money where my mouth is in case anyone wants to call me on that. And by short I mean negative Bitcoins, not just sitting in fiat.

I think the down move is excellerating. I was looking at the long red candles and they are getting larger in size on this down move. The volume is still not huge so it looks like we are building towards a very hard move down. Now, I might play the bottom of that one if there is volume, huge volume.

Notice what I'm saying and the last red large hammer candle...
It is called... THE QUICKENING! 

[sarc]

I think the down move is excellerating. I was looking at the long red candles and they are getting larger in size on this down move. The volume is still not huge so it looks like we are building towards a very hard move down. Now, I might play the bottom of that one if there is volume, huge volume.

Notice what I'm saying and the last red large hammer candle...
It is called... THE QUICKENING!  

pun? Freudian slip?

[w00dy]

pun?

quoting 2 screens of post for this? 

[ChartBuddy]

[sarc]

pun?

quoting 2 screens of post for this? 

begging your pardon.

[oda.krell]

I think Bitfinex lends BTC to short from what Frozenlock has said. There may be others. Some online FX brokers are now offer BTC CFD's. Plus500 and Spreadex to name two accessible in the UK. I am sure there are many more. But tread carefully and manage your risk well if you intend to use leverage on something like Bitcoin. Things can blow up in your face real quick if you don't have the cash to cover it. TBH, for me the leverage just serves as a way to give them less of my fiat.
A CFD is a Contract For Difference in case you are not aware- basically a bet that the price will go up or down where you make or lose only fiat and never touch the underlying asset, though the issuer may do. Its a derivative - the paper shit that Rampion hates ! TBH for me it's not the 'paper shit' that is the issue, it is it's misuse/abuse that is the problem. Any market should have the ability to go short in my opinion otherwise there is no way for true price discovery. It's when the derivatives become greater than the value of the underlying that the problems start to arise and the house of cards starts to be built . When people use them to magnify position to such an extent that a small unexpected move can 'blow them up' that the systemic risk arises. See Long Term Capital (Mis)Management for the best example. And Lehmans for the more widely known one.

EDIT : I normally don't disclose my positions - I feel it can bring bad luck. I just felt in this instance it was necessary

You just made it into my list of bookmarked bitcointalk members (the line about the value/risk of derivatives warranted that). Don't you dare stop disclosing your position from now on.

[MikeH]

i will dump 7k btc

you freak, why would you sell when btc is at its lowest for ages.

[Traktion]

Yes, approx. 91 and 81 are my immediate goals. I suspect there will be bounces to profit off these resistance points. I would expect to buy in again lower should the price permit.

Well, I was about right for this phase. Unfortunately, I wimped out at 98 just before the drop, as an insurance against it going up! I should have stuck!

Still, I made a good BTC profit regardless and bought the other half at 91. I'm hoping to sell on a bounce up to the high 80s, then buy back at the low 80s. I'm hoping to gain a few more BTC in the process and claw back some USD losses.


EDIT: P.S. Unfortunately, I was away during the weekend and couldn't trade it out. Ofc, the last few weekends it was dead... when I was free to trade!

[On Bitstamp]

An update on my position. I should have bought in the high 80s as was my original plan, but held out hoping to regain the loss, which was foolish! We hit about 89 and then plunged into the 70s, so it would have been a good strategy. I made a loss there - that's twice I should have stuck to my original plan over the last couple of weeks! Still, you have to cut losses and move on to the next trade!

I recently bought in at 78, being unconvinced by the rally. A head and shoulders then appeared to be form and has now largely completed with a fall back to low 70s. As I think we're still in a downward trend, I suspect 70 won't hold and I pulled by 71 buy position (half my trading fund).

I'm now sitting on the side and waiting to see how things pan out over the next few days. I'm still tempted to try a trade at 71, as there seems to be substantial support. However, I doubt there would be much of a bounce and as the head and shoulders pattern has just completed and I suspect enthusiasm for another rally may be low.

[sarc]

pun?

quoting 2 screens of post for this? 

begging your pardon.

That's ok, just stick to what you're good at. Pencils, pencils, I must have more pencils 

I'm good at being insincere   

[gizmoh]

Yes, approx. 91 and 81 are my immediate goals. I suspect there will be bounces to profit off these resistance points. I would expect to buy in again lower should the price permit.

Well, I was about right for this phase. Unfortunately, I wimped out at 98 just before the drop, as an insurance against it going up! I should have stuck!

Still, I made a good BTC profit regardless and bought the other half at 91. I'm hoping to sell on a bounce up to the high 80s, then buy back at the low 80s. I'm hoping to gain a few more BTC in the process and claw back some USD losses.


EDIT: P.S. Unfortunately, I was away during the weekend and couldn't trade it out. Ofc, the last few weekends it was dead... when I was free to trade!

[On Bitstamp]

An update on my position. I should have bought in the high 80s as was my original plan, but held out hoping to regain the loss, which was foolish! We hit about 89 and then plunged into the 70s, so it would have been a good strategy. I made a loss there - that's twice I should have stuck to my original plan over the last couple of weeks! Still, you have to cut losses and move on to the next trade!

I recently bought in at 78, being unconvinced by the rally. A head and shoulders then appeared to be form and has now largely completed with a fall back to low 70s. As I think we're still in a downward trend, I suspect 70 won't hold and I pulled by 71 buy position (half my trading fund).

I'm now sitting on the side and waiting to see how things pan out over the next few days. I'm still tempted to try a trade at 71, as there seems to be substantial support. However, I doubt there would be much of a bounce and as the head and shoulders pattern has just completed and I suspect enthusiasm for another rally may be low.

Forget another bounce in the the late 70's. this decade is done now. Soon we'll Welcome The Sixties, hippies and social revolution.

[micalith]

Forget another bounce in the the late 70's. this decade is done now. Soon we'll Welcome The Sixties, hippies and social revolution.

that's a pretty steep wall not to bounce off of...

edit:, though yes, I'd guess not to high 70s from 71, but at least mids

[gizmoh]

Forget another bounce in the the late 70's. this decade is done now. Soon we'll Welcome The Sixties, hippies and social revolution.

that's a pretty steep wall not to bounce off of...

edit:, though yes, I'd guess not to high 70s from 71, but at least mids

For my part, I opened a position around 85, another at 82 seeing massive walls behind. Seeing no momentum i wanted to close again at 82 but mistakenly decided to hold. Waking up i was half shocked to see 14k sells and other biggies and price at 79 and continuing to plummet. At 76-77 i closed my position.Then bought and sold a few in this small rally with marginal profit.. This time i wont trust those walls at 70, it can get eaten by gorillas quick,as Blitz say juicy bids with little spread. And the bounce may not trespass 70 again before visiting further lows.

[micalith]

Forget another bounce in the the late 70's. this decade is done now. Soon we'll Welcome The Sixties, hippies and social revolution.

that's a pretty steep wall not to bounce off of...

edit:, though yes, I'd guess not to high 70s from 71, but at least mids

For my part, I opened a position around 85, then 82 seeing massive walls behind. Seeing no momentum i wanted to close again at 82 but mistakenly decided to hold. Waking up i was half shocked to see 14k sells and other biggies and price at 79 and continuing to plummet. At 76-77 i closed my position.Then bought and sold a few in this small rally with marginal profit.. This time i wont trust those walls at 70, it can get eaten by gorillas quick,as Blitz say juicy bids with little spread. And the bounce may not trespass 70 again before visiting further lows.

Yeah allot of dropping without bouncing earlier, so hard to judge it. It's looking more bouncy today though. temptation is leading me to risk a small amount on this one

[gizmoh]

Forget another bounce in the the late 70's. this decade is done now. Soon we'll Welcome The Sixties, hippies and social revolution.

that's a pretty steep wall not to bounce off of...

edit:, though yes, I'd guess not to high 70s from 71, but at least mids

For my part, I opened a position around 85, then 82 seeing massive walls behind. Seeing no momentum i wanted to close again at 82 but mistakenly decided to hold. Waking up i was half shocked to see 14k sells and other biggies and price at 79 and continuing to plummet. At 76-77 i closed my position.Then bought and sold a few in this small rally with marginal profit.. This time i wont trust those walls at 70, it can get eaten by gorillas quick,as Blitz say juicy bids with little spread. And the bounce may not trespass 70 again before visiting further lows.

Yeah allot of dropping without bouncing earlier, so hard to judge it. It's looking more bouncy today though. temptation is leading me to risk a small amount on this one

Yes the order book on the buy side is slim towards 79. may indeed go a little bit higher.But buyers who wanted to buy at this price,already had their take yesterday,for me its not worth the risk.

[el_rlee]

Isn't it nothing but good news for Bitcoin at the moment? Why is the price so low then?

[Diabolicus]

For my part, I opened a position around 85, then 82 seeing massive walls behind. Seeing no momentum i wanted to close again at 82 but mistakenly decided to hold. Waking up i was half shocked to see 14k sells and other biggies and price at 79 and continuing to plummet. At 76-77 i closed my position.Then bought and sold a few in this small rally with marginal profit.. This time i wont trust those walls at 70, it can get eaten by gorillas quick,as Blitz say juicy bids with little spread. And the bounce may not trespass 70 again before visiting further lows.

Same here, bought in at 82, hoping for a bounce that never came, and cut my losses at 76 this morning, just seconds before it went down to 73. Don't trust those walls.

48hrs ago:

There are currently 49122.396 bitcoins demanded at or over 70.0 USD, worth 3867157.121 USD in total.

now:

There are currently 9603.5655 bitcoins demanded at or over 70.0 USD, worth 680341.619087 USD in total.

This means we basically went through bids worth 40k in just 2 days. At that speed we are mid-50s by the end of the weekend.

[Pompobit]

Isn't it nothing but good news for Bitcoin at the moment? Why is the price so low then?

because jaroslaw is dumping 

[niothor]

In the last days the avergae number of transaction fell by 10k (25%) but the amount transfered has risen by 50%.
Lots of coins on the move , and I really hope not in the gox or bitstamp purse.

Quite interesting , the change happend right after the winklewinkle bros announcement.

[samson]

In the last days the avergae number of transaction fell by 10k (25%) but the amount transfered has risen by 50%.
Lots of coins on the move , and I really hope not in the gox or bitstamp purse.

Quite interesting , the change happend right after the winklewinkle bros announcement.

LOL http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/07/05/comment/the-editor/don-t-bother-with-bitcoin-2PGuuJiaOG3THnmMYSg5RO/article.html

[ChartBuddy]