Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Coinseeker]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

Why would you think 40 is dead when it's still outperformed 99% of other investments.

Something being a good investment yesterday, doesn't necessarily make it a good investment today. 

I just think a mental break will happen, where people will go from thinking "I can buy cheap coins" to "I could be buying soon to be worthless coins".  It's all about the mental.  Of course, it would probably depend on how fast we broke through 50.  If someone dumped 50k coins in one shot, all hell is going to break loose.  If it took a month, maybe not so much. 

[sarc]

Actually meant to post this here:

Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:

How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY  haha

Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.

Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?

Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.

When you first showed this, I took the buys to be a failed attempt to shift the price back into an upwards trend (like previously)...is that what you meant?

[Frozenlock]

Yeah ... that looks like a bullish formation to me ... NOT
I guess you covered your short then  

Actually, I did close my short.

We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound.

Edit:

[Traktion]

Yeah ... that looks like a bullish formation to me ... NOT
I guess you covered your short then  

Actually, I did close my short.

We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound.

Edit:

I bought back in at 65 (Bitstamp). 63-64 has been tested 3 times and has held. My guess is that the price will rally for a while now.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.

[Ultraviolet]

Volume sucks because every mini-rally/bounce has been killed very early on so bids are stacked hard in the 50s (26k to $60 and almost 92k to $50) and asks are stacked up with people trying to get out alive/ahead. The last time the market swung down hard and touched 79 from 165 it acted similarly, albeit the volume wasn't as bad, and only reversed when someone bought $20 points worth of coins from 80 to 100+ after the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda mouthpiece aired their little non-effectual segment on Bitcoin one fateful Saturday morning.

[ChartBuddy]

[Coinseeker]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.

You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there.  Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.  

I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130.  We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process.  Excluding that, I understand what you're saying.  So what happens when people really start selling?  I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!"  Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment.  This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is.  If it can't hold, what's left?  At that point, you're absolutely right.  Look out below.

[ChartBuddy]

[Miz4r]

You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there.  Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely. 

I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130.  We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process.  Excluding that, I understand what you're saying.  So what happens when people really start selling?  I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!"  Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment.  This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is.  If it can't hold, what's left?  At that point, you're absolutely right.  Look out below.

If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Loads of fiat on the sideline and loads more coins for sale that are not on the order book, waiting nervously for that rally ... that may or may not come before their pain threshold is reached

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M

[darklight]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.

You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there.  Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.  

I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130.  We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process.  Excluding that, I understand what you're saying.  So what happens when people really start selling?  I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!"  Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment.  This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is.  If it can't hold, what's left?  At that point, you're absolutely right.  Look out below.

The problem is, what people on this forum say and what they actually do are completely different. If you look back over the past month or so there are plenty of people saying things like "oh hai, below $100 and I'm all in", "keep selling silly bears, more cheap coins for me at $80 lolz". I'd be very surprised if most of them did actually buy in at the points they were claiming they would. The current "OMG cheap coinz!" point seems to be $50 according to the current sentiment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get there and blow right through it as people wait for $30. Since $50 hasn't been touched since very briefly at the bottom of the crash, theres not really any evidence on whether it will provide support or not. If it falls theres no reason to think it will be the end of Bitcoin

[Coinseeker]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.

You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there.  Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.  

I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130.  We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process.  Excluding that, I understand what you're saying.  So what happens when people really start selling?  I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!"  Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment.  This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is.  If it can't hold, what's left?  At that point, you're absolutely right.  Look out below.

The problem is, what people on this forum say and what they actually do are completely different. If you look back over the past month or so there are plenty of people saying things like "oh hai, below $100 and I'm all in", "keep selling silly bears, more cheap coins for me at $80 lolz". I'd be very surprised if most of them did actually buy in at the points they were claiming they would. The current "OMG cheap coinz!" point seems to be $50 according to the current sentiment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get there and blow right through it as people wait for $30. Since $50 hasn't been touched since very briefly at the bottom of the crash, theres not really any evidence on whether it will provide support or not. If it falls theres no reason to think it will be the end of Bitcoin

It's true, there's no guarantee it will hold, that's why it's posted in the speculation forum. It's just the view I have chosen to deem most likely.  There will be massive push back in the 50's.  Bitcoin's death is also speculation but without speculators, there is no Bitcoin.  It has no value or purchasing abilities.  It failed to land a single major company accepting it as currency and thus, the only reason it continues to hold the illusion of value is from speculators.  Once we break through 50, I think those left will all jump ship.  Some faster than others but when you can't make money speculating on Bitcoin, there's no point in dealing in Bitcoin.  The ideological beliefs that follow Bitcoin, don't really give it much monetary value all by themselves so dead to me and dead to you may mean two different things.

TL;DR  If I can't make money on it, it's dead to me.  However, ideological types may deem it alive simply because the blockchain still exists.

[phoenix1]

Loads of fiat on the sideline and loads more coins for sale that are not on the order book, waiting nervously for that rally ... that may or may not come before their pain threshold is reached

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M

lol 
I think someone just blinked ...

[Frozenlock]

Reddit is wising up:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hroin/how_low_do_you_think_btc_is_gonna_go/

I think it'll go to around 50. I also see it going back down to the previous crash price of 30.

Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.

likely lower than 50, likely higher than 32

Step of dropping isn't big now, I think it would be 20-30 for example. It will raise when people will buy cheap BTC. It may be $5 for example

Which means that if you are planning on buying at around $50 or $30, you aren't alone anymore. 

[byronbb]

Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.

There is still a persistent belief in another hype-bubble....Might have to wait a LONG time before this train begins to leave the station again.

[Frozenlock]

Of course there is. I said wising up, not geniuses. 

But I don't see as much deniers.

[Voodah]

I've been buying and selling the whole way down.  My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing.  If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.

It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.

You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there.  Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.  

I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130.  We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process.  Excluding that, I understand what you're saying.  So what happens when people really start selling?  I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!"  Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment.  This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is.  If it can't hold, what's left?  At that point, you're absolutely right.  Look out below.

The problem is, what people on this forum say and what they actually do are completely different. If you look back over the past month or so there are plenty of people saying things like "oh hai, below $100 and I'm all in", "keep selling silly bears, more cheap coins for me at $80 lolz". I'd be very surprised if most of them did actually buy in at the points they were claiming they would. The current "OMG cheap coinz!" point seems to be $50 according to the current sentiment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get there and blow right through it as people wait for $30. Since $50 hasn't been touched since very briefly at the bottom of the crash, theres not really any evidence on whether it will provide support or not. If it falls theres no reason to think it will be the end of Bitcoin

It's true, there's no guarantee it will hold, that's why it's posted in the speculation forum. It's just the view I have chosen to deem most likely.  There will be massive push back in the 50's.  Bitcoin's death is also speculation but without speculators, there is no Bitcoin.  It has no value or purchasing abilities.  It failed to land a single major company accepting it as currency and thus, the only reason it continues to hold the illusion of value is from speculators.  Once we break through 50, I think those left will all jump ship.  Some faster than others but when you can't make money speculating on Bitcoin, there's no point in dealing in Bitcoin.  The ideological beliefs that follow Bitcoin, don't really give it much monetary value all by themselves so dead to me and dead to you may mean two different things.

TL;DR  If I can't make money on it, it's dead to me.  However, ideological types may deem it alive simply because the blockchain still exists.

I have to say I sadly agree with some of your points regarding value, purchasing ability and market penetration. All these issues are showing a big fail in Bitcoin development over the last year, which I've been preaching about. The unregulated free for all anti-fiat currency of the future has merely become a financial platform for big fiat fishes. Most of the development has shifted towards that focus, ignoring usability and every day commerce.

I think, however, you're wrong in your conclusion.  Even if what you say happens and 99% of the people leave when/if we go below 50, that's REBIRTH, not death. The people left will then be in charge of steering the project back on track, hopefully in the right direction this time, but it may even take several tries of this whole process. If Bitcoin goes into a slumber, there's a reason for it, and it needs to be corrected. The fundamental values of the original concept will always be valid and valuable, up until the day there is a stronger crypto-currency or alt-money to compete with fiat.

And that's the bottom line, the demand for Bitcoin (outside of speculation), is in reality the demand for an (unregulated) alternative for gov' controlled fiat. As long as there is no bigger player in this segment, Bitcoin cannot die.

[Walsoraj]

Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.

There is still a persistent belief in another hype-bubble....Might have to wait a LONG time before this train begins to leave the station again.

I personally guarantee another hypermegaultra-bubble immediately after we hit bottom. Me and the wink-twins will set the biggest bid floors that've ever been seen. Then we pump and pump and pump ... etc