Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

When the FBI sells, that should be a nice bit of publicity for Bitcoin. Potentially bullish.

If it goes to auction, as I believe, I would think the top bidder would likely be someone who sees the potential of Bitcoin so they are more likely to hold than dump.

Last time I checked, DPR wasn't convicted of anything in a court of law. The BTC being held are still his.

Then again, due process doesn't matter much in the land of the free. When I cross the border, they don't ask me if I've ever been convicted of a crime. They ask if I've ever been arrested.

[BitThink]

Why on earth do you think large growing companies SPLIT their stocks? Is this is not obvious to you?

I think we cannot buy 0.5 share of a company, but we are free to just buy 0.001 BTC, or one day even 0.00000001 BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

[SheHadMANHands]

I just bought 1 bitcoin for $206 on Coinbase.  Aren't I crazy?

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.   

[mccorvic]

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.   

Very cool. Was he a newbie to BTC?

[bobdude17]

The price needs to catch up to the way I'm feeling right now.

[mccorvic]

The price needs to catch up to the way I'm feeling right now.

Fat and sassy??

Wait, no, that's how I'm feeling....

[bobdude17]

The price needs to catch up to the way I'm feeling right now.

Fat and sassy??

Wait, no, that's how I'm feeling....

I've been spending a bunch of time in the Reddit frontpage thread answering questions and it feels great. There's so many people interested.

[mccorvic]

The price needs to catch up to the way I'm feeling right now.

Fat and sassy??

Wait, no, that's how I'm feeling....

I've been spending a bunch of time in the Reddit frontpage thread answering questions and it feels great. There's so many people interested.

You sir, are a braver soul than I.

[JimboToronto]

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.   

Very cool. Was he a newbie to BTC?

A single coin? Probably. Otherwise he probably would have upped the ante.

Then again it may have been someone who couldn't afford more.

I turned an old friend and his teenage son onto BTC earlier this summer, and when I asked the kid later how he felt about his $94 coins being worth over $140, he was more concerned about how to buy them anonymously than about the current price. I turned him onto LocalBitcoins.

Maybe it was him.  

[SheHadMANHands]

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.  

Very cool. Was he a newbie to BTC?

Ya, he was completely new to it.  He started talking about the story of the guy who turned $26 into $800k or whatever.    

Had to show him how to make an online wallet with Coinbase so I could send him the btc.  I enjoy it though, and was completely new to it myself only 6 months ago.  Made $8 off the transaction, but really do it more to meet people into Bitcoin on occasion.  He'll probably be back for more at some point.  I just try to be nice and helpful, and get a new recruit and bitcoin enthusiast.  

[JimboToronto]

Actually, some guy visited me via Localbitcoins.com to buy 1 btc off me.  I had to immediately replenish my stash after he left.  

Very cool. Was he a newbie to BTC?

Ya, he was completely new to it.  He started talking about the story of the guy who turned $26 into $800k or whatever.    

Had to show him how to make an online wallet with Coinbase so I could send him the btc.  I enjoy it though.  Made $8 off the transaction, but really do it more to meet people into Bitcoin on occasion.  He'll probably be back for more at some point.  I just try to be nice and helpful, and get a new recruit and bitcoin enthusiast.  

Cheers. 2 thumbs up.

[MAbtc]

This is the disconnect. The very meaning of the words "priced in" indicates "at the present time". If something "will be priced in in the future" then it is, obviously, not priced in currently. I think there is a clear difference between news -- upon which speculators react dynamically -- and future demand spurned by that news over time.

See, then this is pointless. When you ask if something is priced in then all you are asking is "what is the price right now".

No, that's not it. When you ask if something is priced in, you're asking if speculators have acted on it to the extent that they will. If news came out today that Amazon will accept bitcoin, there would be a threshold at which speculators would stop buying based on the perceived future valuation. So if the price jumped from $215 to $600 in two days, you could be fairly sure that the news was being priced into the market to some extent. The full extent is obviously subject to speculation -- and that is specifically the question of whether or not something is "priced in."

By your definition, there is never, ever an answer. Nothing is ever priced in, because we have no idea what future demand looks like. It is much less tangible -- especially because of the multitude of variables and the inability to isolate the effect of any one event on future demand. Perhaps the first reward halving will be "priced in" two years from now. How would we know?

The bitcoin exchange markets are not sophisticated enough or liquid enough to have much "priced in." I would speculate that <5% of any rumor is ever priced in before it is news.

And once it is "news" I think a lot of speculators in bitcoin exchanges are not leading the action, they are following it.  The market is too volatile to try to lead. And most dont have the financial leverage to take those risks. Therefore, if the news generates new money into the markets, there is a delayed effect. That effect is then further "priced in" or "over priced in" once the speculators start following the action.

So, in China, there have been news stories for months. Money finally found its way into the market and started leading. Speculators then drove the price up through the roof.

Bolded does not compute. And we're not talking about rumors, but news. A lack of liquidity does not mean that speculators can't buy or sell based on news.

Who are speculators following? Are they not following other speculators?

I don't think money "finally found" its way to the Chinese market because of news circulating for months... Speculators drove the price up overnight, probably based on Baidu news.

No, you are wrong. News may drive new money to the markets. There is a delayed effect. Speculators follow the moves that new money makes.

The only time speculators drive the markets is in flash crashed and panic sells. Some of them get out so they can try to buy back lower and some of them just panic.

But upward sustained motion is not led by speculation. Its lead by new money. The April rally was lead by new money. It was sent into the stratosphere by speculation.

Plus, the fact that you don't think the ability for a market to "buy the rumor sell the news" is not an indicator of speculators driving day to day prices, shows what you are missing about these markets. You need to do some day trading for a couple for years on the Nasdaq and come back and have this conversation again.

You haven't explain how I am wrong. I never said news doesn't drive money to markets. I am saying there is a distinction between the long term effect on demand and the short to mid term effect of speculators trading on said news.

Keep thinking speculators have nothing to do with markets outside of panic selling. How would you have any idea whether it's "new money" or money that has been sitting on the exchanges? And I said nothing remotely close to the notion that news/exposure doesn't bring new money.

I don't see how one can separate speculators from the equation. They speculate on the prospect of new money coming in. Speculators are the ones who have provided the liquidity and have money on exchanges to drive the price up in the first palce. The "new blood" will continue buying at the top, indeed, and will be crushed when the market turns.

And honestly, blurting out a slogan like "buy the rumor sell the news" is simply ridiculous and completely irrelevant. What are you even talking about? Can you explain to me what you're saying, in the context of what I said?

Ok, look, I don't think we disagree on everything. And I think some of it might be semantics. When I think of speculators, I think of day traders - active speculators. Not speculators in the sense of intermediate term players.

There is a term called smart money. Smart money can mean the market makers, which only today has an enchange opened that gave people the ability to be market makers (UK exchange). Smart money can also be seasoned or "inside information" traders. Often these traders take advantage of trends, including a popular one, which involves buying into a rumor of potential good news forth coming. This basically "prices in" the news, whether the news comes or not. So by the time the news arrives (or doesnt) the smart money is out and the stock flatlines or goes down.

Most people just read the news and react.

And that is just one common scenario in a seasoned market.

I just do not see these types of plays being done in the BTC market. I mean, its pretty obvious that alot of BTC day traders (what I am referring to as speculators) are not seasoned traders. Just read the hundreds of threads and posts about "whales" and "market manipulation" and "Gox theories of trapped coins" and "what dump caused the last flash crash" and "when will we be at 10k".  These people are following trends not setting them.

The market is going up because more money is coming into it. Thats the only reason. And, in my opinion, most of that new money is not from day traders.

Yeah, I don't think it's coming from day traders. But I do think it was largely speculators already in the game, with money on the sidelines, that fueled the rally. When I say "speculators" I definitely don't mean for it to be taken as "day trader." I consider myself a speculator, as someone who invests on a mid to long term basis. For example, I had my trading funds in all fiat until after the SR crash, and have been all in since.

I understand the notion of smart money, and I see what you're saying. That's not what I meant at all -- everything I said was in the context of news that had already happened, meaning, like you said, people reading and reacting. But at this point, I think price movement is driving price movement. And the new money is new blood. We'll see how high they drive up the price.  

[adamstgBit]

 He started talking about the story of the guy who turned $26 into $800k or whatever.    

That is the guy who traded 2 pizzas for 10,000 btc?

lol i dont think so...

[ChartBuddy]

[vokain]

 He started talking about the story of the guy who turned $26 into $800k or whatever.    

That is the guy who traded 2 pizzas for 10,000 btc?

lol i dont think so...

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/29/bitcoin-forgotten-currency-norway-oslo-home
ballllin

[MAbtc]

Bears got a shot here, maybe. What do you think?  

[adamstgBit]

http://www.cbc.ca/player/Embedded-Only/News/BC/ID/2414917638/  lmao!


Next Bitcoin ATM Downtown Montreal. cant wait to try it!

[SheHadMANHands]

Bears got a shot here, maybe. What do you think?  

I think Gox is dead and just passively tracking btcchina these past few days.   

r/bitcoin has exploded today with people asking about buying/getting into bitcoin..  pretty interesting to watch and participate in.

[adamstgBit]

watch cavirtex

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Canada/BC/ID/2415040283/