Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[maz]

Love clarkmoody. Sell bell keeps ringing but price is slowly going up.

How does clarkmoody still work for you? It just gets stuck at "Got xxx asks and xxx bids" for me, and doesn't load any further.

Use goxtool (see my signature) if you want to watch gox realtime.

I only have windows installed, what's the easiest way to run linux virtually?

Virtual box + Linux Mint (or other dists)

[1714972871]

1714972871

[jzcjca00]

$500!!!!

looks like the chinese were later after all...

I think the impact of demand from China is overblown.  The volume in China is driven by day traders because of the 0% commission rate.  I think new U.S. investors with deep pockets are behind most of the recent price increase.

If I were given to conspiracy theories, I would think that the media was scheming to link the price of Bitcoin to made-up Chinese demand, expecting the Chinese government to outlaw Bitcoin, thus creating a big crash.

1) Any reason for your first assumption?
2) Why on earth should the Chinese government outlaw Bitcoins? It's a gift from heaven for Chinese economics. It might get like the nuclear bomb of international economics.

1.  I have no proof.  I have no secret source from China.  When I read things in the lamestream media, I try to read between the lines.  I try to figure out what facts they started out with before they started their garbling and slanting process.  I'm guessing that they saw reports of high volume at BTCChina and falsely concluded that this must necessarily mean there is high buying demand in China.  They probably don't know about the 0% commissions, or don't understand that it would lead to a heavy volume of speculative day trading.

The burden of proof lies on the one who asserts the positive, and I have seen nothing outside of MSM reports to suggest extraordinary demand from China.

2.  The Chinese government believes in tight capital controls and has already outlawed other non-government currencies.  The best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior.

Consider this MSM report:

"Chinese women have played a critical role in the rally, accounting for 40% of VIP customers. VIPs are defined as traders with over 10 million yuan (US$1.6 million) in total transaction volume using the online currency, according to the report."

This doesn't sound like Chinese housewives putting the family savings worth over $1.6 million into bitcoins.  This is a whole lot of trading happening because of low commissions.

[rpietila]

We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.

wow, you bearish?

 

The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend.

It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it.

I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better.

But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell.

[ardana123]

Love clarkmoody. Sell bell keeps ringing but price is slowly going up.

How does clarkmoody still work for you? It just gets stuck at "Got xxx asks and xxx bids" for me, and doesn't load any further.

Use goxtool (see my signature) if you want to watch gox realtime.

I only have windows installed, what's the easiest way to run linux virtually?

You can also run it with cygwin, I have made a separate page with installation instructions for windows users

Thanks, didn't notice that.

[Grafzep]

We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.

wow, you bearish?

 

The definition of trendline is that (about) half of the time price is over the trend, and half of the time it is under the trend.

It is therefore smart to buy when price is below trendline, and sell if it goes too high above it.

I do not easily recommend selling for trading purposes, because buy&hold works better.

But if you have been in it for a long time and want to sell periodically, we have just entered the period where it makes sense to sell.

Don't forget that if we spend significant time significantly above your trendline...

...you should re-draw your trendline

[Sitarow]

Expect some resistance:

Seems legit.

Anyway, if we follow that purple line indefinitely, I'm not complaining

We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.

If the price dipped to $400 right now, would you buy? $350? $300?

The fewer buyers, the more vicious the crash will be.

I think that if we go down from here, it will be 2-3 months maximum until we get back. Also $266 will not be violated. By bitcoin standards, this should hardly even be called a correction...

I have buy orders at $270 and $330 still up for bid. However I do not expect them to be fulfilled.

[bnjmnkent]

Bitcoinity having issues?

Forward timetravel exists.

[ChartBuddy]

[haightst]

Expect some resistance:

Seems legit.

Anyway, if we follow that purple line indefinitely, I'm not complaining

We are already 50% over the monthly-average exponential trendline, so a retracement is possible any time.

If the price dipped to $400 right now, would you buy? $350? $300?

The fewer buyers, the more vicious the crash will be.

I think that if we go down from here, it will be 2-3 months maximum until we get back. Also $266 will not be violated. By bitcoin standards, this should hardly even be called a correction...

I have buy orders at $270 and $330 still up for bid. However I do not expect them to be fulfilled.

i will sell .5BTC for that! >> NOT!!! 

[TERA]

Bitcoinity having issues?

[JimboToronto]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

[NewLiberty]

Bounced down off resistance at CNY 3K, but looks like making another run at it.

[batcoin]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

[macsga]

[BroodAap]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

www.fiatleak.com

[notthematrix]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg1ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

BTCChina passed 3000 CNY

[JimboToronto]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

Sorry, should have posted this link:

http://fiatleak.com/

[haightst]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

Sorry, should have posted this link:

http://fiatleak.com/

~nice site!~>Chinese are dumping their worthless paper!!!?= WEEEEE 

[batcoin]

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

Sorry, should have posted this link:

http://fiatleak.com/

Cool real-time graphic of bitcoin movement:

http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5288c45fecad04ed70d3d97f/gifanimation.gif

Is there an actual website that shows something like that?

www.fiatleak.com

Thanks to you both.  

This site is awesome!

[macsga]