Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Sitarow]

[JulieFig]

JulieFig nice post, welcome to the forums!

I've been reading for a while, but quite frankly, have been too intimidated by you big guns to post before. So thanks for the welcome - it is nice of you .

I think my Dad is in a pretty good situation - he has his 3000+ BTC which I know he would be tempted to cash out to get a nice tidy fiat sum. (Despite being a bitcoin believer, I think the lure of instantaneous gains is pretty strong.) But he physically can't touch it for another 8 years - it's all in his super account. I suspect he will be very thankful that the decision was out of this hands when the time comes to access it.

What's a super account?

The best equivalent I can think of is the 401k, but there are some differences. It is basically your retirement fund - can't touch it until you meet the minimum age.

[rpietila]

My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:

I constructed a trendline based on daily prices, and calculated through the last and current bubbles.

It is helpful to know what a logarithmic scale means. Basically it means that every 0.1 difference equals to 26% (compounding). Ten times 0.1 compounds to 1.26^10 = 10.

We express the relative undervaluation/overvaluation in logscale, where 1.0 means that the actual value is 10.0x trend and -1.0 means that it is at 0.1x the trend. That extreme valuations we did not see, though.

Spring

At the low point in 14.1., we started the rise from -0.46.
The trendline was crossed in 21.3., at 0.00 (66 days later)
The peak was reached in 9.4., at 0.45 (19 days later)
The low was reached in 7.7., at -0.30 (89 days later)

Autumn

At the low point in 3.10., we started the rise from -0.34.
The trendline was crossed in 9.11., at 0.00 (37 days later)
The peak was reached in 30.11., at 0.46 (21 days later)
The low was reached in TBD

After spending the whole week so far pretty much with these calculations, I can say that I mostly subscribe to the scenario where bitcoin's exchange rate is currently overvalued by more than 100% (0.32 in log scale). Because the overvaluation is so gross and the delusion of fair value so pervasive (I even personally "turned bull" at the ATH after making my initial bearish call in 20.11. at a lower price), it will take 1-3 months to reach the healthy low in relative valuation. It is not guaranteed that the relative low coincides with the absolute low (the cheapest intraday opportunity to buy in April was only 2 days after the bubble pop, whereas the final capitulation happened at a little bit higher level).

Because I am now so sure of this, I will seek the opportunities to trade the downtrend, sell up to 50% of my bitcoins with the intention to buy them back at the trendline, and to instruct the ones in their bitcoin accumulation phase to buy only very limited amounts when there is still air in the price.

Bitcoin is going to the moon, but it is not going to the moon overnight. I watched it go as close as possible to the moon from 0.25 to 32 and then to 2, which was my entry point. Realistically the following 6 months will not see similar development (going from 1000 to 128,000 per bitcoin, without stopping). If they do, then the other half of my bitcoins is worth so much that it gives me enough to think about.

The trendline (which I constructed anew from daily data) is now at 420, indicating that there is not much point to buy anything over 500 from the flashcrashes that will certainly continue during the following days and weeks.

If we allow 60 days of downtrend from the bubblepop (30.11.) to the final capitulation (est. 29.1.), the trendline is approximately at 590. The characteristic of a low is about -0.20...-0.30 relative valuation. To be on the safe side, we take -0.20, which corresponds to the target price of 372. To add some safety margin, the highest bids should be at 450 or so.

So now it's the time to be right and sit tight (this time with the fiat of your choice). Objectively bitcoin is now expensive, and speculative selling at prices above 800 is a very good proposition. If you have been thinking where I've been the last few days, the answer is: selling. And running excel calculations. and selling some more.

I believe that bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars in 2016, but not now.

Selling now a large percentage of bitcoins with the intention to double the stash by buying at half the price 1-3 months from now has more than 50% probability of success, therefore is a +EV move. It would have been possible both in 2011 aftermath and at the top of the spring 2013 dcb. The only time it would not have been possible was after the 2010 "bubbles" that never popped and just went on. I think I have way better than 50% chances here - especially as the "negative" scenario is that I will be one of the richest people in the world

[virtualfaqs]

Hi all,


Not having a crystal ball, I asked myself "Do you truly believe in the fundamentals behind Bitcoin?" and I could honestly answer "yes".
So I went back and collected all my Bitcoin research and pitched it to my husband. I think it was my enthusiasm (which was probably bordering on reverence by this point) that did it - he agreed to redraw on our home loan. I told him that time was of the essence and if we didn't buy now, it would be too late. This was the night of Wednesday 4th December. The very next day I went and bought 7.7 BTC for $9000. The very NEXT day.... well you all know what happened. I won't deny, the next few days have definitely tested my belief in Bitcoin. But I stuck to my guns and held. I still maintain that one day in the near-ish future, I will tell my sister's grandkids that I once owned 7.7 BTC, and that they be all wide-eyed and gob-smacked "No freakin way!!!!".

Was your dad showing you his cellphone when the price was crashing? Although BTC investments has historically done well I can't for sure say what's going to happen in 10 years. Also I know the bulls will hate me when I say this, but keeping track of crashes and try to figure out why. They are just as important as when the price skyrockets. Maybe you won't sell, but it's important to to understand. Also every single person posting here is pushing their own agenda.

[nagnagnag2]

git pull

./goxtool.py --protocol=pubnub

experimental, coded in a hurry (emergency because of my bot) but seems to work ok already

thank you! I do have some modification that I think you might be interested in....

[ChartBuddy]

[JulieFig]

Was your dad showing you his cellphone when the price was crashing?

Good point. He is a wily bastard... so, probably not.

Has anyone with a good chunk of spare time up their sleeve ever identified periods where Bitcoin received negative (or positive) media attention with the troughs and peaks on the chart? Of course, how you could identify whether a trough was due to a whale who woke up and decided to offload 20,000 coins or a negative story about bitcoin is another matter.

[Dragonkiller]

JulieFig nice post, welcome to the forums!

I've been reading for a while, but quite frankly, have been too intimidated by you big guns to post before. So thanks for the welcome - it is nice of you .

I think my Dad is in a pretty good situation - he has his 3000+ BTC which I know he would be tempted to cash out to get a nice tidy fiat sum. (Despite being a bitcoin believer, I think the lure of instantaneous gains is pretty strong.) But he physically can't touch it for another 8 years - it's all in his super account. I suspect he will be very thankful that the decision was out of this hands when the time comes to access it.

What's a super account?

The best equivalent I can think of is the 401k, but there are some differences. It is basically your retirement fund - can't touch it until you meet the minimum age.

Ah, I see. I'm from Europe, hadn't heard of it before.

[nanobtc]

Fidelity? My workplace uses them! A great move towards legitimacy, but with the middlemen involved, probably more profitable  to own and hold on your own.

prof7bit: The pubnub protocol worked, got goxtool back to talking to gox.

[gandhibt]

My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:

I constructed a trendline based on daily prices, and calculated through the last and current bubbles.

It is helpful to know what a logarithmic scale means. Basically it means that every 0.1 difference equals to 26% (compounding). Ten times 0.1 compounds to 1.26^10 = 10.

We express the relative undervaluation/overvaluation in logscale, where 1.0 means that the actual value is 10.0x trend and -1.0 means that it is at 0.1x the trend. That extreme valuations we did not see, though.

Spring

At the low point in 14.1., we started the rise from -0.46.
The trendline was crossed in 21.3., at 0.00 (66 days later)
The peak was reached in 9.4., at 0.45 (19 days later)
The low was reached in 7.7., at -0.30 (89 days later)

Autumn

At the low point in 3.10., we started the rise from -0.34.
The trendline was crossed in 9.11., at 0.00 (37 days later)
The peak was reached in 30.11., at 0.46 (21 days later)
The low was reached in TBD

After spending the whole week so far pretty much with these calculations, I can say that I mostly subscribe to the scenario where bitcoin's exchange rate is currently overvalued by more than 100% (0.32 in log scale). Because the overvaluation is so gross and the delusion of fair value so pervasive (I even personally "turned bull" at the ATH after making my initial bearish call in 20.11. at a lower price), it will take 1-3 months to reach the healthy low in relative valuation. It is not guaranteed that the relative low coincides with the absolute low (the cheapest intraday opportunity to buy in April was only 2 days after the bubble pop, whereas the final capitulation happened at a little bit higher level).

Because I am now so sure of this, I will seek the opportunities to trade the downtrend, sell up to 50% of my bitcoins with the intention to buy them back at the trendline, and to instruct the ones in their bitcoin accumulation phase to buy only very limited amounts when there is still air in the price.

Bitcoin is going to the moon, but it is not going to the moon overnight. I watched it go as close as possible to the moon from 0.25 to 32 and then to 2, which was my entry point. Realistically the following 6 months will not see similar development (going from 1000 to 128,000 per bitcoin, without stopping). If they do, then the other half of my bitcoins is worth so much that it gives me enough to think about.

The trendline (which I constructed anew from daily data) is now at 420, indicating that there is not much point to buy anything over 500 from the flashcrashes that will certainly continue during the following days and weeks.

If we allow 60 days of downtrend from the bubblepop (30.11.) to the final capitulation (est. 29.1.), the trendline is approximately at 590. The characteristic of a low is about -0.20...-0.30 relative valuation. To be on the safe side, we take -0.20, which corresponds to the target price of 372. To add some safety margin, the highest bids should be at 450 or so.

So now it's the time to be right and sit tight (this time with the fiat of your choice). Objectively bitcoin is now expensive, and speculative selling at prices above 800 is a very good proposition. If you have been thinking where I've been the last few days, the answer is: selling. And running excel calculations. and selling some more.

I believe that bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars in 2016, but not now.

Selling now a large percentage of bitcoins with the intention to double the stash by buying at half the price 1-3 months from now has more than 50% probability of success, therefore is a +EV move. It would have been possible both in 2011 aftermath and at the top of the spring 2013 dcb. The only time it would not have been possible was after the 2010 "bubbles" that never popped and just went on. I think I have way better than 50% chances here - especially as the "negative" scenario is that I will be one of the richest people in the world

the is one of the most bullish news yet, even today after all these wall street etc. news

[Davyd05]

My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:

I constructed a trendline based on daily prices, and calculated through the last and current bubbles.

It is helpful to know what a logarithmic scale means. Basically it means that every 0.1 difference equals to 26% (compounding). Ten times 0.1 compounds to 1.26^10 = 10.

We express the relative undervaluation/overvaluation in logscale, where 1.0 means that the actual value is 10.0x trend and -1.0 means that it is at 0.1x the trend. That extreme valuations we did not see, though.

Spring

At the low point in 14.1., we started the rise from -0.46.
The trendline was crossed in 21.3., at 0.00 (66 days later)
The peak was reached in 9.4., at 0.45 (19 days later)
The low was reached in 7.7., at -0.30 (89 days later)

Autumn

At the low point in 3.10., we started the rise from -0.34.
The trendline was crossed in 9.11., at 0.00 (37 days later)
The peak was reached in 30.11., at 0.46 (21 days later)
The low was reached in TBD

After spending the whole week so far pretty much with these calculations, I can say that I mostly subscribe to the scenario where bitcoin's exchange rate is currently overvalued by more than 100% (0.32 in log scale). Because the overvaluation is so gross and the delusion of fair value so pervasive (I even personally "turned bull" at the ATH after making my initial bearish call in 20.11. at a lower price), it will take 1-3 months to reach the healthy low in relative valuation. It is not guaranteed that the relative low coincides with the absolute low (the cheapest intraday opportunity to buy in April was only 2 days after the bubble pop, whereas the final capitulation happened at a little bit higher level).

Because I am now so sure of this, I will seek the opportunities to trade the downtrend, sell up to 50% of my bitcoins with the intention to buy them back at the trendline, and to instruct the ones in their bitcoin accumulation phase to buy only very limited amounts when there is still air in the price.

Bitcoin is going to the moon, but it is not going to the moon overnight. I watched it go as close as possible to the moon from 0.25 to 32 and then to 2, which was my entry point. Realistically the following 6 months will not see similar development (going from 1000 to 128,000 per bitcoin, without stopping). If they do, then the other half of my bitcoins is worth so much that it gives me enough to think about.

The trendline (which I constructed anew from daily data) is now at 420, indicating that there is not much point to buy anything over 500 from the flashcrashes that will certainly continue during the following days and weeks.

If we allow 60 days of downtrend from the bubblepop (30.11.) to the final capitulation (est. 29.1.), the trendline is approximately at 590. The characteristic of a low is about -0.20...-0.30 relative valuation. To be on the safe side, we take -0.20, which corresponds to the target price of 372. To add some safety margin, the highest bids should be at 450 or so.

So now it's the time to be right and sit tight (this time with the fiat of your choice). Objectively bitcoin is now expensive, and speculative selling at prices above 800 is a very good proposition. If you have been thinking where I've been the last few days, the answer is: selling. And running excel calculations. and selling some more.

I believe that bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars in 2016, but not now.

Selling now a large percentage of bitcoins with the intention to double the stash by buying at half the price 1-3 months from now has more than 50% probability of success, therefore is a +EV move. It would have been possible both in 2011 aftermath and at the top of the spring 2013 dcb. The only time it would not have been possible was after the 2010 "bubbles" that never popped and just went on. I think I have way better than 50% chances here - especially as the "negative" scenario is that I will be one of the richest people in the world

the is one of the most bullish news yet, even today after all these wall street etc. news

He wants my cheap coins NEVARRRRR

[Vycid]

My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:

I constructed a trendline based on daily prices, and calculated through the last and current bubbles.

It is helpful to know what a logarithmic scale means. Basically it means that every 0.1 difference equals to 26% (compounding). Ten times 0.1 compounds to 1.26^10 = 10.

We express the relative undervaluation/overvaluation in logscale, where 1.0 means that the actual value is 10.0x trend and -1.0 means that it is at 0.1x the trend. That extreme valuations we did not see, though.

Spring

At the low point in 14.1., we started the rise from -0.46.
The trendline was crossed in 21.3., at 0.00 (66 days later)
The peak was reached in 9.4., at 0.45 (19 days later)
The low was reached in 7.7., at -0.30 (89 days later)

Autumn

At the low point in 3.10., we started the rise from -0.34.
The trendline was crossed in 9.11., at 0.00 (37 days later)
The peak was reached in 30.11., at 0.46 (21 days later)
The low was reached in TBD

After spending the whole week so far pretty much with these calculations, I can say that I mostly subscribe to the scenario where bitcoin's exchange rate is currently overvalued by more than 100% (0.32 in log scale). Because the overvaluation is so gross and the delusion of fair value so pervasive (I even personally "turned bull" at the ATH after making my initial bearish call in 20.11. at a lower price), it will take 1-3 months to reach the healthy low in relative valuation. It is not guaranteed that the relative low coincides with the absolute low (the cheapest intraday opportunity to buy in April was only 2 days after the bubble pop, whereas the final capitulation happened at a little bit higher level).

Because I am now so sure of this, I will seek the opportunities to trade the downtrend, sell up to 50% of my bitcoins with the intention to buy them back at the trendline, and to instruct the ones in their bitcoin accumulation phase to buy only very limited amounts when there is still air in the price.

Bitcoin is going to the moon, but it is not going to the moon overnight. I watched it go as close as possible to the moon from 0.25 to 32 and then to 2, which was my entry point. Realistically the following 6 months will not see similar development (going from 1000 to 128,000 per bitcoin, without stopping). If they do, then the other half of my bitcoins is worth so much that it gives me enough to think about.

The trendline (which I constructed anew from daily data) is now at 420, indicating that there is not much point to buy anything over 500 from the flashcrashes that will certainly continue during the following days and weeks.

If we allow 60 days of downtrend from the bubblepop (30.11.) to the final capitulation (est. 29.1.), the trendline is approximately at 590. The characteristic of a low is about -0.20...-0.30 relative valuation. To be on the safe side, we take -0.20, which corresponds to the target price of 372. To add some safety margin, the highest bids should be at 450 or so.

So now it's the time to be right and sit tight (this time with the fiat of your choice). Objectively bitcoin is now expensive, and speculative selling at prices above 800 is a very good proposition. If you have been thinking where I've been the last few days, the answer is: selling. And running excel calculations. and selling some more.

I believe that bitcoin can reach 1 million dollars in 2016, but not now.

Selling now a large percentage of bitcoins with the intention to double the stash by buying at half the price 1-3 months from now has more than 50% probability of success, therefore is a +EV move. It would have been possible both in 2011 aftermath and at the top of the spring 2013 dcb. The only time it would not have been possible was after the 2010 "bubbles" that never popped and just went on. I think I have way better than 50% chances here - especially as the "negative" scenario is that I will be one of the richest people in the world

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/06/ruthless-extrapolation/

Once again, trend-fitting is excellent at predicting the past, but is useless for predicting the future unless your trend is a product of the analysis of fundamental growth mechanisms instead of past data. You are simply fitting data.

Look at these adoption curves: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/TBuFe2NvKHI/AAAAAAAABBE/Z3mDC6xW_aE/s1600/Picture+99.png

None of them were a perfect logistic, despite the fact that none were nearly so frictionless as Bitcoin adoption. The Internet, being the most recent and probably the most rapid, didn't pay much attention to exponential growth expectations.

It is not reasonable to expect that the adoption rate (and therefore the exponential trend) will remain constant throughout Bitcoin's rise. Media attention feeds off media attention in a self-reinforcing fashion that should logically accelerate the growth as a percentage of current users. Exponential growth is constant growth (in a percentage sense). It helps adoption, too, that the utility of a Bitcoin is increasing alongside the value - the much-vaunted "network effect".

This is more about predicting when and if the attention will slow than trying to force-fit exponential curves.

My bet stands, by the way, in case you really believe all this and aren't just trying to reverse the mistake you made by selling out at $700.

Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?

You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.

I am game. 10 BTC that we don't touch your exponential trendline in December?

The one that projects $428, not one that incorporates data up to Dec. 9.

[Kouye]

Lots of time spent to compute useless calculations

I'm really sorry to tell you that, but your work, as fine as it may be, is probably useless.

Going into bitcoin to earn money is just gambling.

What if...
Amazon accepts bitcoins as a payment tomorrow?
A major flaw is discovered in ECDSA ?
Switzerland banks decide to allow bitcoin denominated accounts?
Gavin turns out being a NSA sub-contractor ?

You're considering bitcoin just as another company share, when it's a solid - in some aspects (for now) yet also fragile - in some aspects (for now) new way of life. New way to trade. New way to vote. New way to trust.

Bitcoin is a great idea that made it to reality.
Bitcoin will have a future, whether through evolving and dodging the traps, or through death and rebirth.
The concept has now reached the critical mass, and won't ever be discarded until it is fully adopted or a better idea comes up.

Bitcoin. is. no. fucking. stock.

[almonds99]

JulieFig nice post, welcome to the forums!

I've been reading for a while, but quite frankly, have been too intimidated by you big guns to post before. So thanks for the welcome - it is nice of you .

I think my Dad is in a pretty good situation - he has his 3000+ BTC which I know he would be tempted to cash out to get a nice tidy fiat sum. (Despite being a bitcoin believer, I think the lure of instantaneous gains is pretty strong.) But he physically can't touch it for another 8 years - it's all in his super account. I suspect he will be very thankful that the decision was out of this hands when the time comes to access it.

What's a super account?

The best equivalent I can think of is the 401k, but there are some differences. It is basically your retirement fund - can't touch it until you meet the minimum age.

would you mind explaining how your dad has BTC locked up in an account he can't touch for 8 years?  I've never heard of anything like that.
And if it's true, then doesn't it mean he doesn't actually hold the BTC?  Like holding the derivative of gold, it's nowhere near the same thing as holding physical.
And furthermore, no one knows what will happen in 8 years, in the next 7 years BTC could go to $100,000 per coin, but in the 8th year a newer version with an improvement could come out and over 6 months everyone moves into the newer coin, but your dad is stuck holding the older coin. Or any other of a million possible scenarios that could play out in 8 years.  I would never want to have my coins locked up for 8 years.
So anyway, can you explain this setup he is in??
Thanks!  Please give specifics, not just say "it's like an IRA"
I didn't even think any companies existed yet that were doing this.

[Vycid]

My firm analysis is that bitcoin is overvalued:

... blah blah blah ...

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/06/ruthless-extrapolation/

... blah blah blah ...

This is more about predicting when and if the attention will slow than trying to force-fit exponential curves.

From the statistics blog I linked, a visual aid to help people understand the dangers of exponential extrapolation. This is a logarithmic chart, the straight lines are exponential curves.

[Dragonkiller]

JulieFig nice post, welcome to the forums!

I've been reading for a while, but quite frankly, have been too intimidated by you big guns to post before. So thanks for the welcome - it is nice of you .

I think my Dad is in a pretty good situation - he has his 3000+ BTC which I know he would be tempted to cash out to get a nice tidy fiat sum. (Despite being a bitcoin believer, I think the lure of instantaneous gains is pretty strong.) But he physically can't touch it for another 8 years - it's all in his super account. I suspect he will be very thankful that the decision was out of this hands when the time comes to access it.

What's a super account?

The best equivalent I can think of is the 401k, but there are some differences. It is basically your retirement fund - can't touch it until you meet the minimum age.

would you mind explaining how your dad has BTC locked up in an account he can't touch for 8 years?  I've never heard of anything like that.
And if it's true, then doesn't it mean he doesn't actually hold the BTC?  Like holding the derivative of gold, it's nowhere near the same thing as holding physical.
And furthermore, no one knows what will happen in 8 years, in the next 7 years BTC could go to $100,000 per coin, but in the 8th year a newer version with an improvement could come out and over 6 months everyone moves into the newer coin, but your dad is stuck holding the older coin. Or any other of a million possible scenarios that could play out in 8 years.  I would never want to have my coins locked up for 8 years.
So anyway, can you explain this setup he is in??
Thanks!  Please give specifics, not just say "it's like an IRA"
I didn't even think any companies existed yet that were doing this.

I agree, I wouldn't like to have my BTC locked in for 8 years and I'm as bullish in the long term as you can get! If there's anyway for your dad to get the coins so that he controls them himself, he should definitely look into it.

[Patel]

bitcoin will probably be dead by 8 years. locking it up and not having access to it, even if you wanted to, is pretty stupid

[Dragonkiller]

Lots of time spent to compute useless calculations

I'm really sorry to tell you that, but your work, as fine as it may be, is probably useless.

Going into bitcoin to earn money is just gambling.

What if...
Amazon accepts bitcoins as a payment tomorrow?
A major flaw is discovered in ECDSA ?
Switzerland banks decide to allow bitcoin denominated accounts?
Gavin turns out being a NSA sub-contractor ?

You're considering bitcoin just as another company share, when it's a solid - in some aspects (for now) yet also fragile - in some aspects (for now) new way of life. New way to trade. New way to vote. New way to trust.

Bitcoin is a great idea that made it to reality.
Bitcoin will have a future, whether through evolving and dodging the traps, or through death and rebirth.
The concept has now reached the critical mass, and won't ever be discarded until it is fully adopted or a better idea comes up.

Bitcoin. is. no. fucking. stock.

+1

[rpietila]

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/06/ruthless-extrapolation/

Once again, trend-fitting is excellent at predicting the past, but is useless for predicting the future unless your trend is a product of the analysis of fundamental growth mechanisms instead of past data. You are simply fitting data.

Incorrect. Phew. Understatement of the century. If you have read any of my threads, you know very well that I know a lot about many things, and actively use this knowledge to my advantage.

What comes to the predictive value, both of the previous big bubbles behaved nicely according to this model, with predictive value. We need to have jumped to something completely different, in order for this model not to continue holding true. The probability of this happening is well under 50%, even with Bitcoin

Look at these adoption curves: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/TBuFe2NvKHI/AAAAAAAABBE/Z3mDC6xW_aE/s1600/Picture+99.png

None of them were a perfect logistic, despite the fact that none were nearly so frictionless as Bitcoin adoption. The Internet, being the most recent and probably the most rapid, didn't pay much attention to exponential growth expectations.

Bitcoin price and adoption are different, and I have an article about this in store.

My bet stands, by the way, in case you really believe all this and aren't just trying to reverse the mistake you made by selling out at $700.

Breaking out of that triangle in a big way. Anyone want to place bets on recovery or bull trap?

You mean an actual bet? Yeah, sure. I feel we will go visit the exponential trendline.

I am game. 10 BTC that we don't touch your exponential trendline in December?

The one that projects $428, not one that incorporates data up to Dec. 9.

Ah, never saw that one. From the high point of the dead cat bounce, to the day that exponential trend is breached, last time it was 45 days. If we were to bet on similar terms, the bet would stand as follows:

- On or before 25. January 2014, the price is less than 573.

There is no much reason to bet 1:1 whether price goes to 428 in December. I am getting better odds by just selling at >2*428

[Davyd05]

someone just bought coins for 1500 on cavirtex or a glitch occured.