Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013.  This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66.  People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #.   Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it.  If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.

Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.

Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.

I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.

I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.

You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me  

[seleme]

I seriously can't believe people are still trading on MtGox.

I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.

Mtgox also has the highest price (and much volume/depth) and I am able to withdraw euro (or simply wait for price to equal any other exchange which happens occasionally). If I'm going to sell, it makes sense to sell for the highest price I can get.

In conclusion I like gox, and I feel that my funds are safe with them.

Goxxing doesn't bother me so much, yes it can be annoying, but trust is more important for me (but i don't trade a lot anyways). I think btc-e is great, low fees, many trading opportunities, but I don't trust them as much (or more precise I'm fearing that they will eventually be targeted by law enforcement).

How can you trust gox? How many times they have promised to do something and then just not done it? Only thing they have done is to be there, but that's only because people are willing to pay that outrageous fee and doesn't mind that they are ass raped in every major movement, Mark is doing a lot of money.

0.60% fee should be enough for everyone to fuck them off. It's scandalous fee.

[windjc]

All I try to do on the 'clear drops' is take the small trading fraction of my BTC holdings and increase it by 7%, then hold it again until I see a 'clear drop' again.

No point trying for more I figure, being greedy is only going to bite me back later... so come on, drop a few dollars more....

Yeah thats pretty easy these days.

I would argue its still not easy. Otherwise everyone would be doing it right?

No, not really. Most people can't recognize the signs. Some can. Depends on so many factors. I actually have to make my calls once or twice a day as my schedule allows. So I don't try to guess top and bottom. Only sell or buy small positions (10-20% of my coins) when it looks obvious to me.

For instance right now we are forming a pennant. The bear in me says it should go down as the short term trend is that way. Bull in me knows that new money could hit exchanges soon from wires, etc. I also know that if it doesn't go down now it is always more likely to go down on the weekend.

Although I think our movements are going to be less and less for the next couple of weeks.

[windjc]

It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013.  This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66.  People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #.   Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it.  If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.

Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.

Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.

I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.

I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.

You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me  

Dude, this is NOTHING like April. How much in total USD value was sitting in the bid sum in late April? How much is sitting there now?

How many new wallets did Coinbase have being made every day last April? How many now?

How much was 2ndMarket investing into the market last April? How much are they investing now?

It is ridiculous that you say "things dont change" and if they do you can "quantify them."  My examples above quantify what I am saying.

There is no way we are in a continued bear market for 3 months barring some hugely bad news.

And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.


EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.

[Vycid]

It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013.  This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66.  People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #.   Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it.  If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.

Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.

Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.

I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.

I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.

You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me  

You keep talking over and over about analysis, but the only analysis of substance that I've seen is the trendline, and you should know from undergraduate statistics that extrapolation cannot reliably predict the future.

Regression is great for predicting the impact of altering parameters in a controlled or otherwise constant system. But the Bitcoin system is different from how it was in April... and that means you cannot expect the same behavior, or even the same average rate of growth.

[windjc]

It took years to recover from 2011. It took months to recover from April 2013.  This rally will be even easier to recover from. Barring some bad news, it won't take several months before we start going up again. We might, MIGHT, dip below $600 but I really doubt it. I thought for sure we would go back to $50. So much so that I ignored the obvious fact that the bottom was in at $66.  People are staring at $600 now. Everyone knows the significance of that #.   Barring bad news, I don't think we go below it.  If we do then $500 will be the absolute bottom. But we will be headed north again, most bearish scenario, by February.

Agreed. The cycle is accelerating, all the signs are there. We're hitting the mainstream. Train is picking up steam, if you like.

Risto and the bears are myopically pointing to the meaningless trendline... look at the time lag between the April and November rallies compared to the behavior before, and tell me this thing isn't accelerating.

I'd be unsurprised to see the next rally inside of 3 months.

I have also had my first bubble, which is characterized by disbelief, and the second (first in which I was invested) characterized by euphoria and denial of bubblepop. Now in my third bubble I am wiser and know the trendline, and the value of pi() is still 3.14159... even in heaven, and some things just don't change, and even if they do, you can quantify then mathematically. This is analysis over emotion thing now. Some point in the next 3 months we will see 0.5, possibly lower, and afterwards I will tell you how much I made.

You(pl.) sound so much like me last April that I wonder if your investor cycle is one bubble behind me  

You keep talking over and over about analysis, but the only analysis of substance that I've seen is the trendline, and you should know from undergraduate statistics that extrapolation cannot reliably predict the future.

And he keeps making calls and being completely off about them. Just a few days he was no longer a bear and now we were going to ATHs. I knew this wasn't going to happen. 

So many on this forum think that it either has to be $400s to ATHs. No. It. Does. Not.

There is nothing to keep us from moving in a range for several weeks. And, again, barring bad news, we are eventually going higher.

[MicroFi]

Gox going down ...

[macsga]

Party is starting... Maybe TODAY we will see Risto's low before we see a new ATH (tomorrow)... forget months. We're talking days, maybe even hours here. 

[capsqrl]

860 tested for the second time in 24 hours. Up from here?

[Vycid]

Party is starting... Maybe TODAY we will see Risto's low before we see a new ATH (tomorrow)... forget months. We're talking days, maybe even hours here. 

Yes, CLEARLY this market is unstable and can't maintain support in the $800-$900 range.

[TheKoziTwo]

I seriously can't believe people are still trading on MtGox.

I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.

Mtgox also has the highest price (and much volume/depth) and I am able to withdraw euro (or simply wait for price to equal any other exchange which happens occasionally). If I'm going to sell, it makes sense to sell for the highest price I can get.

In conclusion I like gox, and I feel that my funds are safe with them.

Goxxing doesn't bother me so much, yes it can be annoying, but trust is more important for me (but i don't trade a lot anyways). I think btc-e is great, low fees, many trading opportunities, but I don't trust them as much (or more precise I'm fearing that they will eventually be targeted by law enforcement).

How can you trust gox? How many times they have promised to do something and then just not done it? Only thing they have done is to be there, but that's only because people are willing to pay that outrageous fee and doesn't mind that they are ass raped in every major movement, Mark is doing a lot of money.

0.60% fee should be enough for everyone to fuck them off. It's scandalous fee.

I'd say 100% fee is much worse.   (i wish mtgox would change their fee schedule to account for usd instead of btc though, but I have less than 0.5% fee at least)

[macsga]

Party is starting... Maybe TODAY we will see Risto's low before we see a new ATH (tomorrow)... forget months. We're talking days, maybe even hours here. 

Yes, CLEARLY this market is unstable and can't maintain support in the $800-$900 range.

Or maybe THIS is the new low... I believe some eager funds are testing the waters now... It's gonna be a very interesting day I believe.

[ChartBuddy]

[rpietila]

And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.

How come I am so much richer than you if all I do is to handle money, and I do it so badly?   How old are you, 22?

EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.

What were the differences in the bubbles' endings?

[Vycid]

And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.

How come I am so much richer than you if all I do is to handle money, and I do it so badly?   How old are you, 22?

EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.

What were the differences in the bubbles' endings?

I should clarify something about my own comments. When I question your abilities as a fortuneteller, I do not imply anything about your business acumen. If you started from nothing and built your own wealth, congratulations, that is a rare achievement. I would never argue that a good businessman cannot find wealth the hard way.

However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems (and, as proven recently, even to manipulate them).

[NUFCrichard]

Seems to be quite a bit of selling pressure.  I think we will get back to $950 and hang around there for a while, before the next push!

[fr33d0miz3r]

Get ready for

[ChartBuddy]

[gandhibt]

I seriously can't believe people are still trading on MtGox.

I use mtgox because I don't trust any other entity with much of my funds. We've seen many exchanges come and go (bitcoin24,bitcoin7,tradehill,bitparking etc) but mtgox has been here all the time.

Mtgox also has the highest price (and much volume/depth) and I am able to withdraw euro (or simply wait for price to equal any other exchange which happens occasionally). If I'm going to sell, it makes sense to sell for the highest price I can get.

In conclusion I like gox, and I feel that my funds are safe with them.

Goxxing doesn't bother me so much, yes it can be annoying, but trust is more important for me (but i don't trade a lot anyways). I think btc-e is great, low fees, many trading opportunities, but I don't trust them as much (or more precise I'm fearing that they will eventually be targeted by law enforcement).

How can you trust gox? How many times they have promised to do something and then just not done it? Only thing they have done is to be there, but that's only because people are willing to pay that outrageous fee and doesn't mind that they are ass raped in every major movement, Mark is doing a lot of money.

0.60% fee should be enough for everyone to fuck them off. It's scandalous fee.

I'd say 100% fee is much worse.   (i wish mtgox would change their fee schedule to account for usd instead of btc though, but I have less than 0.5% fee at least)

You would have 0.2 on stamp and isn't stamp worth more trust?

[macsga]

And you're going to be eating crow AGAIN when your prediction (based on the past performance of bitcoin bubbles) comes up false.

How come I am so much richer than you if all I do is to handle money, and I do it so badly?   How old are you, 22?

EDIT: In addition you say that 2011 left you in disbelief and 2013 in euphoria. Ummmm...notice that those 2 bubbles ended completely different. And yes, I am a bubble behind you, but I am aware enough to know that this bubble and the last will end completely different too.

What were the differences in the bubbles' endings?

I should clarify something about my own comments. When I question your abilities as a fortuneteller, I do not imply anything about your business acumen. If you started from nothing and built your own wealth, congratulations, that is a rare achievement. I would never argue that a good businessman cannot find wealth the hard way.

However, you are mortal and catastrophically overconfident in your ability to predict chaotic systems.

Vycid I think he was talking about what windjc wrote to him. I couldn't agree more with your last statement though... No one can 100% successfully predict chaotic systems; atleast no one I've met so far. I do like Risto's thought though; he's very stochastic and sound on his analysis so far. On the other hand, I surely think that some of those thinghs he says on this thread, are not for other people's good...