Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

wow.

its still going up! faster and faster

did some new chips recently come out?

[byronbb]

wow.

its still going up! faster and faster

did some new chips recently come out?

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

[adamstgBit]

wow.

its still going up! faster and faster

did some new chips recently come out?

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

looks like they dont care tho.

they are buying more mining rigs faster

crazy!

[HairyMaclairy]

Clearly a hash rate bubble.

[HairyMaclairy]

Clearly a hash rate bubble.

Clearly and obviously its unsustainable, it could even end up using more power than the entire financial system someday.

It will be back at late 2012 levels by mid 2014.  Obviously. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Gox is such a tease. Stop bouncing off 680. 

[TERA]

[TiagoTiago]

Clearly a hash rate bubble.

Clearly and obviously its unsustainable, it could even end up using more power than the entire financial system someday.

It will be back at late 2012 levels by mid 2014.  Obviously. 

When some ingenious person figures out how to hash directly from heat transfer and creates home insulation that pays for its self? This currencies also backed by innovation towards higher efficiency

You can't have it both ways, either it is hard for the heat to leave the house, or it is easy. The more you keep the heat inside, the less energy you can get from it going outside and vice-versa.

[aminorex]

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

Miners always make money.  The reasons are simple.  Any miner who does not hold his coins until they are worth the cost of mining goes bankrupt, and sells his mining gear to a miner who does.  The bankrupt party is not a miner, but an ex-miner.  The remaining miners hold until the coins are worth enough to be profitable.  Consequently, by hoarding all the new coins, the miners drive up the price, since demand cannot meet supply at the older, lower prices.  Since mining is always profitable, it is an attractive investment.  Therefore, more miners come online all the time.  Some few are inept, and go bankrupt.  The survivors make money, and drive up the difficulty, and hoard coins until they are profitable, thus creating an incentive for more miners to come online, driving up the difficulty, which drives up the prices.

In short, because miners are always profitable, difficulty always increases, and bitcoin always goes up.

You may protest:  But bitcoin has gone down!  In fact that is noise.  You must separate the signal from the noise, or you will be deceived by your innate talent for detecting patterns in information.  The signal is:  Bitcoin is going up.

[JorgeStolfi]

Yes, if China goes through that wall at 3300, then we are down to at least 3000 and probably eventually 2500. Where we might meet some real support.

Bid "walls" cannot be expected to hold against a general drop in the perceived value of bitcoin.

Most of the bids 3-5% below the current price must be market players waiting for someone who must sell a few 100s BTC at any price;  whose coins they will promptly offer to sell at 3-5% above the current price, for someone who must buy a 100 BTC at any price.   Those players will ignore changes in price due to small transactions, but if they see that the whole Ask Mountain is coming down, they will quickly lower their bids too, to preserve their margin of play.

[Voodah]

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

Miners always make money.  The reasons are simple.  Any miner who does not hold his coins until they are worth the cost of mining goes bankrupt, and sells his mining gear to a miner who does.  The bankrupt party is not a miner, but an ex-miner.  The remaining miners hold until the coins are worth enough to be profitable.  Consequently, by hoarding all the new coins, the miners drive up the price, since demand cannot meet supply at the older, lower prices.  Since mining is always profitable, it is an attractive investment.  Therefore, more miners come online all the time.  Some few are inept, and go bankrupt.  The survivors make money, and drive up the difficulty, and hoard coins until they are profitable, thus creating an incentive for more miners to come online, driving up the difficulty, which drives up the prices.

In short, because miners are always profitable, difficulty always increases, and bitcoin always goes up.

You may protest:  But bitcoin has gone down!  In fact that is noise.  You must separate the signal from the noise, or you will be deceived by your innate talent for detecting patterns in information.  The signal is:  Bitcoin is going up.

This is wrong on so many levels I won't even comment.

[aminorex]

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

Miners always make money.  The reasons are simple.  Any miner who does not hold his coins until they are worth the cost of mining goes bankrupt, and sells his mining gear to a miner who does.  The bankrupt party is not a miner, but an ex-miner.  The remaining miners hold until the coins are worth enough to be profitable.  Consequently, by hoarding all the new coins, the miners drive up the price, since demand cannot meet supply at the older, lower prices.  Since mining is always profitable, it is an attractive investment.  Therefore, more miners come online all the time.  Some few are inept, and go bankrupt.  The survivors make money, and drive up the difficulty, and hoard coins until they are profitable, thus creating an incentive for more miners to come online, driving up the difficulty, which drives up the prices.

In short, because miners are always profitable, difficulty always increases, and bitcoin always goes up.

You may protest:  But bitcoin has gone down!  In fact that is noise.  You must separate the signal from the noise, or you will be deceived by your innate talent for detecting patterns in information.  The signal is:  Bitcoin is going up.

This is wrong on so many levels I won't even comment.

This is known as tacit agreement.  Unless you mean that it is aesthetically displeasing (I disagree) or morally corrupt (perhaps - I have no opinion).

[tHash]

Clearly a hash rate bubble.

Clearly and obviously its unsustainable, it could even end up using more power than the entire financial system someday.

It will be back at late 2012 levels by mid 2014.  Obviously. 

When some ingenious person figures out how to hash directly from heat transfer and creates home insulation that pays for its self? This currencies also backed by innovation towards higher efficiency

I was able to heat my entire home with my ASICs, for no more than the furnace would have cost to heat.   Next generation incoming will heat my greenhouse as well.   For me it has all worked out extremely well.   I can see being able to heat everything eventually, hot water, home, shop, swimming pool . . .

[Voodah]

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

Miners always make money.  The reasons are simple.  Any miner who does not hold his coins until they are worth the cost of mining goes bankrupt, and sells his mining gear to a miner who does.  The bankrupt party is not a miner, but an ex-miner.  The remaining miners hold until the coins are worth enough to be profitable.  Consequently, by hoarding all the new coins, the miners drive up the price, since demand cannot meet supply at the older, lower prices.  Since mining is always profitable, it is an attractive investment.  Therefore, more miners come online all the time.  Some few are inept, and go bankrupt.  The survivors make money, and drive up the difficulty, and hoard coins until they are profitable, thus creating an incentive for more miners to come online, driving up the difficulty, which drives up the prices.

In short, because miners are always profitable, difficulty always increases, and bitcoin always goes up.

You may protest:  But bitcoin has gone down!  In fact that is noise.  You must separate the signal from the noise, or you will be deceived by your innate talent for detecting patterns in information.  The signal is:  Bitcoin is going up.

This is wrong on so many levels I won't even comment.

This is known as tacit agreement.

Sure. Kid yourself.

Miners are NOT always profitable. There is no "always profitable" investment; none, zip, zero, nada.

[aminorex]

I can see being able to heat everything eventually, hot water, home, shop, swimming pool . . .

ocean, atmosphere, dysonsphere, space-time...

[TiagoTiago]

Clearly a hash rate bubble.

Clearly and obviously its unsustainable, it could even end up using more power than the entire financial system someday.

It will be back at late 2012 levels by mid 2014.  Obviously.  

When some ingenious person figures out how to hash directly from heat transfer and creates home insulation that pays for its self? This currencies also backed by innovation towards higher efficiency

I was able to heat my entire home with my ASICs, for no more than the furnace would have cost to heat.   Next generation incoming will heat my greenhouse as well.   For me it has all worked out extremely well.   I can see being able to heat everything eventually, hot water, home, shop, swimming pool . . .

The home insulation has nothing to do with that though; well, except for keeping warm things warm.

[aminorex]

Miners are NOT always profitable. There is no "always profitable" investment; none, zip, zero, nada.

I see.  There are actual disagreements.  Firstly, a religious one.  Perhaps my language was blasphemous to TANSTAFFL.  I do apologize, as I had no intention of defaming your deity.  Secondly, a semantic one.  You wish for "always" to mean something like "invariably" whereas I use it to mean something like "ever and anon" or at least "anon".  Duly noted.  Moot as regards substance, but noted.

[tHash]

Tons of people must have been burned bad buying mining rigs.

Miners always make money.  The reasons are simple.  Any miner who does not hold his coins until they are worth the cost of mining goes bankrupt, and sells his mining gear to a miner who does.  The bankrupt party is not a miner, but an ex-miner.  The remaining miners hold until the coins are worth enough to be profitable.  Consequently, by hoarding all the new coins, the miners drive up the price, since demand cannot meet supply at the older, lower prices.  Since mining is always profitable, it is an attractive investment.  Therefore, more miners come online all the time.  Some few are inept, and go bankrupt.  The survivors make money, and drive up the difficulty, and hoard coins until they are profitable, thus creating an incentive for more miners to come online, driving up the difficulty, which drives up the prices.

In short, because miners are always profitable, difficulty always increases, and bitcoin always goes up.

You may protest:  But bitcoin has gone down!  In fact that is noise.  You must separate the signal from the noise, or you will be deceived by your innate talent for detecting patterns in information.  The signal is:  Bitcoin is going up.

This is wrong on so many levels I won't even comment.

Mining is currently very profitable . . .   Perhaps not for those who ordered late.   Maybe only about 5% of income is needed for power currently, with first generation ASICs.   There is no need to hoard coins, and I think that is what keeps selling pressure up in a bear market, miners selling.   Miners tend to hoard in a bull market.

[aminorex]

high efficiency ... will get more common as energy prices go up.

Interesting economic question for speculation:  Will the profits from mining rise faster than the costs of energy?  If so...singularity.  Renormalization can derive a perpetual price of energy in bitcoins.

[jojo69]

Mining is currently very profitable . . . 

I beg to differ

60GH/s cost me 100BTC, I will never, ever, make that back