Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OldGeek]

I like that chart, TERA.

[OldGeek]

The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.

Would this work:

....

It sounds possible, but too complicated and perhaps a long time frame.

[OldGeek]

I have wondered about the arbi potential before.

With the China market about the only way I can think of that might work is to have multiple accounts.  Buy XBT on cny, transfer to home wallet, transfer to friends home wallet, transfer to western exchange, sell.  That would still take at least three hours to complete and a complicit (and trustworthy) friend.

edit:  cut out the middle man and it makes more sense.

[ChartBuddy]

[aminorex]

 * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

That's a losing proposition.  You are buying BTC high and selling them low.
The opposite direction involves buying BTC with RMB which is challenging right now.
However, you might get a good deal from miners in China.

[nanobrain]

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

That's a losing proposition.  You are buying BTC high and selling them low.
The opposite direction involves buying BTC with RMB which is challenging right now.
However, you might get a good deal from miners in China.

Yes, I did post my results from research into getting funds into China yesterday (impossible unless you have a bank account in mainland China) but no-one seemed remotely interested.

I'll go back to my knitting.

[Adrian-x]

The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.

Would this work:

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

or the other way around.   Not for amateurs, of course.

This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs.

Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate.

Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen 

[OldGeek]

Yes, I did post my results from research into getting funds into China yesterday (impossible unless you have a bank account in mainland China) but no-one seemed remotely interested.

I'll go back to my knitting.

Wait please.  I missed it among the trash.  Cliff's notes version please.

[CryptStorm]

Yes, I did post my results from research into getting funds into China yesterday (impossible unless you have a bank account in mainland China) but no-one seemed remotely interested.

I'll go back to my knitting.

Wait please.  I missed it among the trash.  Cliff's notes version please.

Also, when there are 30-100 pages a day, I imagine plenty of us read the posts but didn't have a chance to reply-- so little time.

I always appreciate the good posts, certainly yours!

[CryptStorm]

Anyone think we'll see 800 in the next week or two?

[JorgeStolfi]

The opposite direction involves buying BTC with RMB which is challenging right now.

If you have deep pockets you do not need to transfer funds right before/after each purchase.  You start with a large pile of USD (or RMB) and end with a large pile of RMB (or USD) that is worth more than what you started with, even though it may take months or years to get it out (or in).

[jojo69]

they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up

[OldGeek]

The opposite direction involves buying BTC with RMB which is challenging right now.

If you have deep pockets you do not need to transfer funds right before/after each purchase.  You start with a large pile of USD (or RMB) and end with a large pile of RMB (or USD) that is worth more than what you started with, even though it may take months or years to get it out (or in).

I agree that this would work, but I don't see it as arbitrage.  More like RMB laundering.

[JorgeStolfi]

I agree that this would work, but I don't see it as arbitrage.  More like RMB laundering.

OK maybe it is the wrong name. But it would explain why the exchanges track each other so closely.  Once the player figures out the actual ultimate "exchange rate" he can get, it is profitable to buy BTC in one market and sell them in another, whenever the price ratios deviate from that rate.

[JorgeStolfi]

For example, as of yesterday it would seem that pocketing one USD in Japan (that's where Mt Gox is?) is as good as pocketing 5.3 CNY in China, even though the official exchange rate is 6.07 or so.

[QuestionAuthority]

HODL FOREVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OldGeek]

For example, as of yesterday it would seem that pocketing one USD in Japan (that's where Mt Gox is?) is as good as pocketing 5.3 CNY in China, even though the official exchange rate is 6.07 or so.

Okay.  I get it now.  Thanks.

[JorgeStolfi]

HODL FOREVER !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yodel forever? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B00nfVc4FPI

[CryptStorm]

So perhaps this oscillating dampening thing is more than just a natural occurrence-- witness the ask wall on gox?

[OldGeek]

So perhaps this oscillating dampening thing is more than just a natural occurrence-- witness the ask wall on gox?

I believe it is defo unnatural.  The bot traffic is the key IME.