Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CryptStorm]

Have you heard of turtle trading? Simplest trading system-- I think it goes, if up 20 days (or whatever in BTC), then buy, if 20 down, sell. Has very good followers and record. Funny.

So... buy high, sell low?

Ha, that's exactly what I thought too Justin justus! The idea is 20+ indicates an up trend, and, what's not to like, and vice versa. (I still look forward to plowing through your writing on Lex Cryptographia, btw, must wait till I don't have a fever-- all I can do now is watch kung fu movies and make $). Nice to be in a smart community.

[spooderman]

Have you heard of turtle trading? Simplest trading system-- I think it goes, if up 20 days (or whatever in BTC), then buy, if 20 down, sell. Has very good followers and record. Funny.

So... buy high, sell low?

Lol. Brilliant.

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

"Land grab" coming to and end?

[jojo69]

if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

[CryptStorm]

Have you heard of turtle trading? Simplest trading system-- I think it goes, if up 20 days (or whatever in BTC), then buy, if 20 down, sell. Has very good followers and record. Funny.

So... buy high, sell low?

Seriously, this type of system does not work with BTC time-frame. All the strategy really is, is glorified trend position trading. In btc, that would have blew your account faster than you can imagine.

Right, neither did I suggest it works or that the time-frame wouldn't need to be adjusted were it to be tried, rather responding to magicmexicans thoughts about other's trades informing his movements.

[Voodah]

Have you heard of turtle trading? Simplest trading system-- I think it goes, if up 20 days (or whatever in BTC), then buy, if 20 down, sell. Has very good followers and record. Funny.

So... buy high, sell low?

Lol. Brilliant.

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

"Land grab" coming to and end?

Yup, Cameron Winklevoss also expressed something along these lines the other day. Paraphrasing, he said we're entering full mania mode rather sooner than later, and when it happens, it will be SO VERY fast. If you have not been accumulating, there will be no time left.

[CryptStorm]

if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

I think *this* is closer. Thank you, jojo. I going back to watching Woochi try and find the magic flute to become the Tao master... sheesh.

[nagnagnag2]

if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

shouldn't that be seconds instead? 

[rpietila]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adoption. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

[CoinDox]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

[jojo69]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

I would agree with this, and welcome back R

[CryptStorm]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

+1 This, plus basic comprehension of the S-Curve (it's adoption, yo) is making me money. Cheers Risto

[windjc]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

Why can't people on here read?

Loaded said he bought coins that would have landed on the other exchanges. That means he bought OFF EXCHANGE. He didn't go hand Bobby Lee a briefcase of cash. And, yes, if he was on a private plane he could have got money into China and exchanged the deal before even going through customs.

He bought the coins from someone who took them off the exchange and sold it to them at a set price. Pretty obvious.

[CryptStorm]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

I don't doubt he could bring assets into the country on a private plane, with the right connections; further, he mentioned brokering private deals, as I understood.

[Four-Rings-Workshop]

OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

[CryptStorm]

OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.

[I_bitcoin]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Nailed it...   Not sure about going below 500 but if it does I have prepared my contingencies :-)

[granathus]

Wow, BTCChina is completely dead atm. No money left there?

[CryptStorm]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Nailed it...   Not sure about going below 500 but if it does I have prepared my contingencies :-)

Check out the 1W, how can it *not* return to a lower stance? You know you want those cheepz coinz. NOM NOM

[EuroTrash]

Wow, BTCChina is completely dead atm. No money left there?

Middle of the night. Most traders are sleeping - and maybe they have lost interest for now. Bots are mostly off because trading fees.

[molecular]

if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

It could work. Especially with 0% fees.