Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

It's an interesting point of view; but it works also vice versa. Meaning that IF somebody has so many BTC handy and in cold storage, he's gonna be more concerned on stabilization of the currency than it's destabilization and accumulation of more. Being in such a position is not always "problems free" you know. When a major exchange is practically sets itself out of business, we all should be heading for MONTHS of time into recovering with strong possibilities the reverse (and most wanted by them) media attention than what it came with the $1240 ATH.

So; my guess is that it's not like that... but of course my chances of being wrong is the same with yours being right... about 50%

[adamstgBit]

Viretx isn't moving
so i'm like ok ill place a wall infront of everyone else and hope they start placing walls lower and get this party started
the second my wall pops up someone takes a bite, i panic remove my wall, and a 10BTC bid appears at the very top.
lol
wtf!

[Four-Rings-Workshop]

OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.

Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to  900-1000 by new years, or just after

[Voodah]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

Listen, I read loaded's posts. You guys have to understand that if he really was carrying bags of cash, he would not have been able to set foot on Chinese soil... Do any of you live in the real world? If he has off-shore entities and his cash that is a wire away, that is slightly different. Still though, there is no reason for him to go there to put money back into the Chinese exchange. Government trumps Bobby ability to find a willing third party payment system.

He went there to talk about what is next, and how can he move his wealth accordingly. Buying back in on a exchange chocked by government, I don't think so.

Looks like you haven't actually read the posts, you weren't paying attention or you lack reading comprehension skills.

He specifically said he bought from a single seller, so that the coins did not hit the market (aka BTCChina).

Also, smuggling fiat in planes is common practice all around the world. All you need is a friendly crew, and a diplomat in your party. That's the real world.

[fotosonics]

It's only the chinese and regular folks prone to panic who are dumping.

The real whales are accumulating at these prices.

Don't take my word for it. Go back a few pages and carefully read Loaded's posts. They are quite telling (and bullish).....

I speculate he's one of the whales who are dumping right now, in order to buy back lower, because it just makes sense.
I mean hey guys I know you all need a hero figure but he is a portfolio manager! Making money for his customers is his job.
I speculate that he dumped close enough to the top and he cashed out fiat. Then he flew to China with bags of cash, and he gave them directly to Bobby Lee in order to deposit them on his BTCChina account. The he slowly bought coins, causing the price rise in BTCChina.
And now he is closing the circle and dumping again, for a second final round of this "squeeze-a-nob" game.

Yes, that's all certainly possible.

My only point is that if real big whales are accumulating (either at 300 or 500), it's because they know they will soon have ROI.  They know the accumulation game is coming to an end.

2014 will make the $1240 top a joke.

"small bull case scenario for Bitcoin is a 400 billion USD dollar market cap, so 40,000 USD a coin, but I believe it could be much larger. When this will happen, if it happens, I don't know, but if it happens, it will probably happen much faster than anyone imagines."

(http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1swnnl/i_am_cameron_winklevoss_and_i_love_me_some/)

Now who/what determines market cap, and when?

[spooderman]

Gox decided its time to buy

and stamp

High 500s (gox) and mid 500s stamp is lowest this weekend gonna go I think no chip coins

edit: waaay too much buying pressure! Everyone wants btc!

[CryptStorm]

if it goes up for 20 minutes buy, down for 20 minutes sell?

It could work. Especially with 0% fees.

The real take away for me was that entry point is wildly over-valued component (a coin flip might even return better odds), while the added components of setup, position sizing, risk management, expectancy, and exit are *all* required to actually avoid gambling and manage funds properly. We have a long way to go to have those tools available to us, laymen (albeit relatively smart ones), and I'm looking forward to that evolution.

[CryptStorm]

OK, i guessed 715@12pm, i saw it was like 660 the, and 630-640 now.

Thought it was going down today, but wrong by how much!

C'mon bitstamp verify, I want to get in on some of this action.

Save yourself much grief, buy low, wow profit, not so doge.

Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to  900-1000 by new years, or just after

Som ting Wong!!!! You no read 1W chart? You no read adoption curve??? You no understand what we saying???

[justusranvier]

The real take away for me was that entry point is wildly over-valued component (a coin flip might even return better odds), while the added components of setup, position sizing, risk management, expectancy, and exit are *all* required to actually avoid gambling and manage funds properly. We have a long way to go to have those tools available to us, laymen (albeit relatively smart ones), and I'm looking forward to that evolution.

If Bitcoin is successful then the only relevant factors is how many you manage to grab before it happens.

In that outcome currency exchanges are a transitional technology because in the end there won't be other currencies to exchange with.

If Bitcoin fails, then this this is all a bunch of meaningless gambling.

[oda.krell]

Viretx isn't moving
so i'm like ok ill place a wall infront of everyone else and hope they start placing walls lower and get this party started
the second my wall pops up someone takes a bite, i panic remove my wall, and a 10BTC bid appears at the very top.
lol
wtf!

Something in the same order of magnitude as 10 BTC is a wall now? o_O

[MAbtc]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adoption. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Excellent post, thank you.

[adamstgBit]

Viretx isn't moving
so i'm like ok ill place a wall infront of everyone else and hope they start placing walls lower and get this party started
the second my wall pops up someone takes a bite, i panic remove my wall, and a 10BTC bid appears at the very top.
lol
wtf!

Something in the same order of magnitude as 10 BTC is a wall now? o_O

on virtex it is.

F' this i'm panic hodling!

[MAbtc]

Someone just market bought 500 coins.

[EuroTrash]

Someone just market bought 500 coins.

much slippage, very wtf

[adamstgBit]

Someone just market bought 500 coins.

much slippage, very wtf

bitcoin

its value is very much UNDEFINED.

starting to think i feel in a trap.

[adamstgBit]

everyone panic hodl your positions!

[adamstgBit]

Someone just market bought 500 coins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fyE6N4JQt0

LMAO!

[I_bitcoin]

The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.

We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.

If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.

April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.

Nailed it...   Not sure about going below 500 but if it does I have prepared my contingencies :-)

Check out the 1W, how can it *not* return to a lower stance? You know you want those cheepz coinz. NOM NOM

Stop it!  I have poor impulse control.   Next thing you know I am buying everything under 625.

[tHash]

Yeah, I want some of the 400-500$ coins, I'm thinking back to  900-1000 by new years, or just after

Som ting Wong!!!! You no read 1W chart? You no read adoption curve??? You no understand what we saying???

Well, to be fair, the adoption curve does not move in a straight line on the exponential scale.   Adoption comes in spurts, so we may lag behind the curve for a while then shoot over it for a while.   Look at early this year, after spending a long time in the $10 range, we shot up to a "stable" $100ish, with a few (not so)minor bumps along the way.  

I don't expect that our growth will always be along the line, and to be sure, at some point we will fall way below the predicted trend and stay there.   People don't find out about and enter bitcoin at a set rate.   Events, etc. accelerate or stagnate the adoption.  

Quick piece of math for you to do, Gox just announced they crossed 1 million customers.   I am sure the other exchanges have at least some customers that never signed up on Gox, so that is a lot of people.   How many coins are out there to go around?   We know how many have been mined, but there are a LOT in cold wallets, lost, etc.   There are not enough coins for those people to have even 4 each probably, and the price would be astronomical once they did.

Short term may still have some bear left in it, but I think the manipulators/accumulators are doing a pretty good job of keeping even reasonable people bearish.   As long as they are successful, it is a bear market.   Take advantage of it, but there is a great risk of getting burned at some point.  

Try not to make it look like you are telling someone they are stupid because they have different opinions than you do . . .

[Voodah]

Someone just market bought 500 coins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fyE6N4JQt0

LMAO!

LOL.

Would've have been a whole different story if that room was full of Goat Shit Coins.