Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Below is the latest Chartbuddy image of MtGox's order book history for 1 hour, sampled every 10 minutes.  Note the changes along my yellow highlight line.  There seems to be a robot that continuously repositions a sell order of 150-200 BTC at exactly 50 USD above the last transaction price.  What could be the purpose of that robot?

[T.Stuart]

Below is the latest Chartbuddy image of MtGox's order book history for 1 hour, sampled every 10 minutes.  Note the changes along my yellow highlight line.  There seems to be a robot that continuously repositions a sell order of 150-200 BTC at exactly 50 USD above the last transaction price.  What could be the purpose of that robot?

You have made dozens of posts over the past three weeks all with the same subject. I have answered several of them. Could I ask why you keep repeating yourself?  

[adamstgBit]

Below is the latest Chartbuddy image of MtGox's order book history for 1 hour, sampled every 10 minutes.  Note the changes along my yellow highlight line.  There seems to be a robot that continuously repositions a sell order of 150-200 BTC at exactly 50 USD above the last transaction price.  What could be the purpose of that robot?

You have made dozens of posts over the past three weeks all with the same subject. I have answered several of them. Could I ask why you keep repeating yourself?  

i dont get it whats the answer?

[TERA]

I just think that people have an exaggerated impression about a sudden paradigm shift over a mere 3 months in which the dynamics of bitcoin trading and the amount of volume and depth needed to support the price has completely changed,  when in fact if China is removed from the equation, things could go right back to how they were in early 2013.

First you're talking about a ban - that's not on the cards right at this moment. But it is a big question. How important is China to Bitcoin's fundamentals when the speculation has died down? Not important at this early stage I would say. Bitcoin is like a seedling now and will grow in any direction it has to. If we were a couple of years down the line and Bitcoin was in widespread use in China and then they banned it then yes, that would be a problem. But for now the only problems are FUD and panic.

There is also support building every day in the US and other places. Why would things go all the way back to early 2013? No way in my opinion - the "cheap coins" will be snapped up before then!  

This is an optimistic scenario that bulls keep repeating. In reality we have not seen any solid evidence that such a support exists on non-chinese exchanges. Each Chinese crash has been stopped by a sudden volume in explosion on a... Chinese exchange - either btcchina or huobi. You really have no idea what will happen when China is removed. It's like an uncharted territory. It's possible that your optimistic scenario occurs. Or it's possible that we dip back to 400s or lower because the type of horsepower needed to support these levels simply doesn't exist yet on non-chinese exchanges. And we could consider 400 to be a damn impressive increase from the level of 100 we were supporting previously and attribute it to recent developments. Money talks, and even though we might be incredibly bullish, it might still take time to gather all the fresh fiat needed to support these chinese-meth-cocaine-magic-powered levels of Yuan enchantment.

[Davyd05]

I just think that people have an exaggerated impression about a sudden paradigm shift over a mere 3 months in which the dynamics of bitcoin trading and the amount of volume and depth needed to support the price has completely changed,  when in fact if China is removed from the equation, things could go right back to how they were in early 2013.

First you're talking about a ban - that's not on the cards right at this moment. But it is a big question. How important is China to Bitcoin's fundamentals when the speculation has died down? Not important at this early stage I would say. Bitcoin is like a seedling now and will grow in any direction it has to. If we were a couple of years down the line and Bitcoin was in widespread use in China and then they banned it then yes, that would be a problem. But for now the only problems are FUD and panic.

There is also support building every day in the US and other places. Why would things go all the way back to early 2013? No way in my opinion - the "cheap coins" will be snapped up before then!  

This is an optimistic scenario that bulls keep repeating. In reality we have not seen any solid evidence that such a support exists on non-chinese exchanges. Each Chinese crash has been stopped by a sudden volume in explosion on a... Chinese exchange - either btcchina or huobi. You really have no idea what will happen when China is removed. It's like an uncharted territory. It's possible that your optimistic scenario occurs. Or it's possible that we dip back to 400s or lower because the type of horsepower needed to support these levels simply doesn't exist yet on non-chinese exchanges, and 400 would still be a damn impressive increase from the level of 100 we were supporting previously, due to recent developments. Money talks, and even though we might be incredibly bullish, it might still take time to gather all the fresh fiat needed to support these chinese-meth-cocaine-magic-powered levels of Yuan enchantment.

they also started on a Chinese exchange.. you need more sleep my friend.

you need to let off of the TA and breath in the global air of change. Countries accepting bitcoin as a part of their economies, economies continuing to struggle, overstock opening btc acceptance a quarter earlier putting every other online retailer inhaling dust fumes.

These bring more and more people in to the game that weren't coming, most people struggle to understand why you'd buy a bitcoin if you can't spend it easily, they'll easily learn why we weren't worried about spending when they find out how deflationary currencies work.

[JorgeStolfi]

You have made dozens of posts over the past three weeks all with the same subject. I have answered several of them. Could I ask why you keep repeating yourself?  

I have made a few (not dozens) of posts about the small "creeping ping-pong" trades on MtGox (which seem to have stopped a while ago). Thanks for your explanations.

This is a different "phenomenon": a much larger order that is being continuously repositioned on the ask side only, apparently without any transaction. Unless there is a sudden increase in price (more than 50 USD in less than 10 minutes), those coins would never be sold. Could it be a safety measure against excessive volatility? A trap for random impulse buyers?

[T.Stuart]

Or it's possible that we dip back to 400s or lower because the type of horsepower needed to support these levels simply doesn't exist yet on non-chinese exchanges...

Now and again you get clues as to the amount of support waiting, like last weekend when a few lurking buyers panicked! Remember how surprised you were?

Wallet providers recently announcing record numbers of accounts, exchanges getting flak for slow customer service, a constant swell of news all essentially pointing to Bitcoin's potential to grow...

There is much more support than before and also, a lot of the people who were in Bitcoin but nervous it would fall are now feeling more at ease.

Yes China can scare people but the fundamental support is much bigger than ever before outside China.

[TERA]

So many bull arguments; so little volume totals.

[T.Stuart]

So many bull arguments; so little volume totals.

And it's the inability to understand and accept this new low volume in the context of changing market sentiment (lots more people with Bitcoins are happier to wait for the log chart growth now) that will skew the calculations of many long-term Bitcoin traders. It's been happening a lot already.

[Ashitank]

So many bull arguments; so little volume totals.

Volume in BTC or USD ?

[TERA]

The volume levels seem like too drastic of a change to have occured over only 4 months. If they had decreased by 25% or maybe even 50% then that might make sense but not 80%.

[T.Stuart]

The volume levels seem like too drastic of a change to have occured over only 4 months. If they had decreased by 25% or maybe even 50% then that might make sense but not 80%.

But the price has gone up 500%!!! 

[Davyd05]

The volume levels seem like too drastic of a change to have occured over only 4 months. If they had decreased by 25% or maybe even 50% then that might make sense but not 80%.

less ta, more air and sleep

[kromer]

Maybe more people are holding now. If Bitstamp had no trading fees then you'd see high volumes. The Chinese love this because they love gambling.

[TERA]

Actually if you look at the mtgox chart there was no much volume decrease process that occured 2010-2013 - This phenomena has only started just recently, due to exchange diversification.

[adamstgBit]

The volume levels seem like too drastic of a change to have occured over only 4 months. If they had decreased by 25% or maybe even 50% then that might make sense but not 80%.

volume looks good...


if you look at gox it volume paints a different story but they did go from #1 to #3 

[Ivanhoe]

The volume levels seem like too drastic of a change to have occured over only 4 months. If they had decreased by 25% or maybe even 50% then that might make sense but not 80%.

volume looks good...

Yes indeed, and this is not even the volume in USD.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fluidjax]

So many bull arguments; so little volume totals.

Your analysis is just wrong, here is a rough graph of $volume for the past year at MtGOX only.
Remember in April Gox totally dominated, but $ volume in the December rally at Gox alone was higher than the April rally.

$ Volume has increased massively over the last year especially if we include the other exchanges.

(Apologies for the roughness of the graph  x axis=time, Y-axis is $ volume per day)

[adamstgBit]

its bouncing back with a vengeance  

if we slice through 860 (btc-e) I'm going to be impressed