Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dgarcia]

http://www.businessinsider.com/overstock-bitcoin-2014-1

Is this sufficent to rise above 1000,00$ and go down to 900,00$ again? 

[1714242971]

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[1714242971]

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[Nightowlace]

I understand that many people are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin; fine, but I am not.

Why is that?

He feels like he missed the boat so instead of buying now and hoping for a continued growth he wishes for its failure so he can validate his decision not to enter the market.

[JorgeStolfi]

Cryptocurrencies pay no dividends and have no "destructive" demand. So they have no base price to anchor the speculation, even remotely.

They have a fundamental value which is described by PQ=MV.
Destructive demand in this case means savings.  Dividends in this case means deflation.

Deflation means change in price, so that is not "base value" but the very unknown variable that the market has to define.

Savings is not "destructive" because the bitcoins saved will be traded again depending on expected price.  Indeed every bitcoin is always someone's "savings" except for an instant while it is being traded.

(Perhaps one may consider that bitcoins are "destroyed" temporariliy while a transaction is awaiting confirmation from the net, if they cannot be traded or used for commerce in that interval.  From that "consumption" and predicted volume of commerce one may be able to compute a "base value" that does not depend on speculation, assuming that Bitcoin will be the only cryptocoin in use.  However, the volume of "consumption" depends on the speed of confimation.  Is that predictable?)

[alexeft]

However, the volume of "consumption" depends on the speed of confimation.  Is that predictable?)

The speed of confirmation is opposite to security. The speedier the confirmation, the less security there is.
It's false to think that a "fast" cryptocurrency is as secure as a slower one.

That being said, one could do daily transactions without waiting for confirmation, the chance of double
spending being very very small.

[windjc]

I understand that many people are optimistic about the future of Bitcoin; fine, but I am not.

For someone who isn't optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, you sure are around a lot. What are you doing? Research?

Probably in a way. I've seen this with other people. It's like they are curious so they do research for themselves. Most of them have already made up their minds so they constantly frame everything in a context that best suits their underlining beliefs.

He'll eventually leave as soon as he is satisfied that he was correct all along.

[JorgeStolfi]

For someone who isn't optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, you sure are around a lot. What are you doing? Research?

Basically yes. I do not expect to make any great discoveries, but as a computer scientist I am supposed to understand Bitcoin (and have a reasoned opinion about it). 

As I said before, I am satisfied that the technical part is sound, but I still cannot see how it can succeed economically.  I am still trying to understand how the market works (if it does).

People who take risks are the ones typically rewarded. Even if you were to buy two bitcoins. If they double in price sell one and you've earned a free one. If they halve in price sell both and you lost half of your investment. It's a calculated risk with great reward potential.

Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.

He feels like he missed the boat so instead of buying now and hoping for a continued growth he wishes for its failure so he can validate his decision not to enter the market.

That too, I suppose.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[virtualfaqs]

For someone who isn't optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, you sure are around a lot. What are you doing? Research?

Basically yes. I do not expect to make any great discoveries, but as a computer scientist I am supposed to understand Bitcoin (and have a reasoned opinion about it).  

As I said before, I am satisfied that the technical part is sound, but I still cannot see how it can succeed economically.  I am still trying to understand how the market works (if it does).

People who take risks are the ones typically rewarded. Even if you were to buy two bitcoins. If they double in price sell one and you've earned a free one. If they halve in price sell both and you lost half of your investment. It's a calculated risk with great reward potential.

Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.

He feels like he missed the boat so instead of buying now and hoping for a continued growth he wishes for its failure so he can validate his decision not to enter the market.

That too, I suppose.

There are ton of factors why I'm not all in BTC either.

1. Price skyrocketed in the last 3-4 weeks.
2. FBI's coins
3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat. This is because there appears to be a fiat investment opportunity to look into which has a stable growth potential that I must look into first.
4. Stupid alt-coins.
5. Jan 31 in China and other unpredictable China announcements.
6. Overstock accepting BTC price increase was less than satisfactory. Is it because they're selling everything right away and that's affecting the price negatively?

[Richy_T]

As I said before, I am satisfied that the technical part is sound, but I still cannot see how it can succeed economically.  I am still trying to understand how the market works (if it does).

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.

[macsga]

As I said before, I am satisfied that the technical part is sound, but I still cannot see how it can succeed economically.  I am still trying to understand how the market works (if it does).

You remind me of me a couple of years ago; I was skeptical about it too. I have a degree in computer science as you do which helped me a lot to understand the protocol and security part... My second degree in Physics helped me a lot understand the chaotic nature of it and determine its equity predictability (more here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=372346.0 ). I had to study economic theory (which I did). That explained why it's gonna be the "last man standing" after a global economic conflict. All in all, I came up with a bold conclusion:

Bitcoin is a virus. I'm infected. We here, are ALL infected. We will be assimilated and doomed to HODL some!

PS: Having a couple will be your life's safest bet. Go for it if you can afford it.

[solarflare]

Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.

Then just invest what you can lose, even if it's 10 bucks!
Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.

Stop loss orders work for me.

[hyphymikey]

So... should we prepare for a weekday dip now?

[Erdogan]

Cryptocurrencies pay no dividends and have no "destructive" demand. So they have no base price to anchor the speculation, even remotely.

They have a fundamental value which is described by PQ=MV.
Destructive demand in this case means savings.  Dividends in this case means deflation.

Deflation means change in price, so that is not "base value" but the very unknown variable that the market has to define.

Savings is not "destructive" because the bitcoins saved will be traded again depending on expected price.  Indeed every bitcoin is always someone's "savings" except for an instant while it is being traded.

(Perhaps one may consider that bitcoins are "destroyed" temporariliy while a transaction is awaiting confirmation from the net, if they cannot be traded or used for commerce in that interval.  From that "consumption" and predicted volume of commerce one may be able to compute a "base value" that does not depend on speculation, assuming that Bitcoin will be the only cryptocoin in use.  However, the volume of "consumption" depends on the speed of confimation.  Is that predictable?)

You do not need consumption or destruction of bitcoins. The demand is reservation demand, and only reservation demand. This is the characteristic of pure money, money that is not at the same time some useful commodity.

[Erdogan]

[...]
Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.
[...]

Go as low as you need, to be comfortable. Try out a few payments, for instance give something to a charity in another country. Tip a blog. Anything. You will get a feel for the usefulness. Believe me, if you ever have had some difficulty or high cost with paying internationally, you will be surprised how elegant bitcoin is. That usefulness creates demand.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Sorry for the off-topic, but does anyone know a good/cheap/safe way to transfer credit card money to regular bank account money (US)?  Or to bitcoins?  Trying to help out a friend.

[BitChick]

Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.

I am not a betting person either so I get this.  I used to think that Bitcoin was a bit of a gamble but as time has gone on I have come to realize that in a strange way, our fiat is a gamble too.  Pretty much everything we have our money invested in has some risks.  Real estate can lose value, even gold and silver fluctuate in value, although it can hold value better than some things.  Nothing in life is a "sure thing."  The wise person makes educated guesses and puts money where there is less risk in doing so I believe.

So far Bitcoin has shown to be the best store of value I have ever had the opportunity to have though.  I am rethinking how I look at things because of this.  The coins are the last resort we use when we need funds.  Unfortunately it looks like we will have to sell one in the next week to pay some bills thanks to a bigger than expected credit card bill because of Christmas and some extra curricular activities for the kids.  Maybe I am too optimistic about where BTC is going?  I am not sure, but I would way rather hold them right now if at all possible.

[mb300sd]

Sorry for the off-topic, but does anyone know a good/cheap/safe way to transfer credit card money to regular bank account money (US)?  Or to bitcoins?  Trying to help out a friend.

Open a bluebird.com account, buy a vanilla reload with card, load and transfer to bank account. $3.95 per $500, much cheaper than cash advance/balance transfer fees.

[macsga]

Sorry for the off-topic, but does anyone know a good/cheap/safe way to transfer credit card money to regular bank account money (US)?  Or to bitcoins?  Trying to help out a friend.

Open a bluebird.com account, buy a vanilla reload with card, load and transfer to bank account. $3.95 per $500, much cheaper than cash advance/balance transfer fees.

Something has to do with this??? 
http://www.coindesk.com/colorado-marijuana-dispensary-bitcoin-evade-federal-laws/

J/K of course. It was far too tempting

[Ducky1]

Sorry for the off-topic, but does anyone know a good/cheap/safe way to transfer credit card money to regular bank account money (US)?  Or to bitcoins?  Trying to help out a friend.

Its not very cheep, but it was how i bought my first bitcoins: www.virwox.com
Here you can buy something called Linden dollars with a credit card, and then exchange the Linden dollars for BTC.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Thanks guys !