Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nanobrain]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=457057.0

interesting thread.

best explanation/speculation on the mtgox situation i've seen so far.

Do we have a word for the opposite of FUD? Im more inclined to believe the second post in that threat.

Antonym for FUD = GAC  (gallantry, assurance and conviction)

 

and I agree:

Unless, Gox fixes the BTC withdrawal AND fixes fiat withdrawals AND introduces say zero fees, then I can't see a scenario where we are not going to start testing Risto's $450 capitulation mark in the next 14/21 days.


I think Hyphymikey has you on ignore!

[1714802440]

1714802440

[nanobrain]

1:46PM in Tokyo Japan Mtgox headquarters.


Marks finds enough change for one last mega-choc-frappacino

Thanks Adam, we can riff on this all afternoon.

[hyphymikey]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=457057.0

interesting thread.

best explanation/speculation on the mtgox situation i've seen so far.

Do we have a word for the opposite of FUD? Im more inclined to believe the second post in that threat.

Antonym for FUD = GAC  (gallantry, assurance and conviction)

 

and I agree:

Unless, Gox fixes the BTC withdrawal AND fixes fiat withdrawals AND introduces say zero fees, then I can't see a scenario where we are not going to start testing Risto's $450 capitulation mark in the next 14/21 days.


I think Hyphymikey has you on ignore!

Nah, I don't ignore anyone….

I think creekbore and I are on the same page!

[hyphymikey]

Any prediction on what will happen when Gox does not release an update? It's almost 2pm over there.

[surfer43]

Any prediction on what will happen when Gox does not release an update? It's almost 2pm over there.

Price of goxBTC plummets? 

[bitwager]

If Gox fixes BTC withdrawals, there will also be a ton of buying pressure from all of the people who converted to fiat (which drove the price this low in the first place) wanting to convert back to BTC so they can transfer them out, perhaps to sell for a profit, if it is indeed profitable for them.

[surfer43]

Any prediction on what will happen when Gox does not release an update? It's almost 2pm over there.

Well, according to my highly scientific poll
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456413.0
16% of users here think there will be no update and with every hour that passes th emarket is going to get more jumpy.  If we go past 5pm Tokyo time and the US starts waking up to find no news I imagine it could get ugly for a few hours.

Also, 5.4% think the announcement will be Mark has run of with all the coins 

[hyphymikey]

Any prediction on what will happen when Gox does not release an update? It's almost 2pm over there.

Well, according to my highly scientific poll
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456413.0
16% of users here think there will be no update and with every hour that passes th emarket is going to get more jumpy.  If we go past 5pm Tokyo time and the US starts waking up to find no news I imagine it could get ugly for a few hours.

+1

My vote was that there will be no update. I thought "What Would Gox Do?"…. which would be absolutely nothing.

[surfer43]

Any prediction on what will happen when Gox does not release an update? It's almost 2pm over there.

Well, according to my highly scientific poll
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456413.0
16% of users here think there will be no update and with every hour that passes th emarket is going to get more jumpy.  If we go past 5pm Tokyo time and the US starts waking up to find no news I imagine it could get ugly for a few hours.

+1

My vote was that there will be no update. I thought "What Would Gox Do?"…. which would be absolutely nothing.

You can make quite a nice profit betting they will process all withdrawals. 40% or so profit.

[DaRude]

We got a BTC5 lil Willy at Gox now?

[surfer43]

less than 5 hours until it is 20:00 in Japan 

[Adrian-x]

It is mathematically inevitable that debt-based monetary systems will explode.  It does not require any particular economic theory or political ideology to recognize this, merely mathematical literacy.

Those be some strong claims.  Doubts about them, I have.
I am presuming you are talking about the "where does the money come from to pay the interest"-situation.

That is a major component.  In and of itself, it would not make collapse inevitable, but it forms the foundation upon which collapse is built.
The system was designed to rent-seek in the margin, draining the energy made available by economic growth, on an exponential growth model.
The system can no longer work as designed, because the exponential growth assumption has reached end-of-life.  The energy available is declining.
It could in hypothetical principle be adapted, modified, to conform to the new material conditions; however, other factors make that impossible,
in particular the fragility of low-diversity tightly coupled systems:

It is useful to characterize ecological systems by their path through a three-dimensional phase-space, the axes of which are energy requirements, interconnectedness, and diversity.   Ecological systems, incorporating predator-prey dynamics, are attracted to a lemniscate path through this phase space.  When energy requirements approach the limits of available energy, interconnectedness is high, and diversity is low, the system is reaching a catastrophic portion of the trajectory, and a very rapid motion to a loosely-coupled, low-energy, high-diversity region ensues.  

The predators are about to become carrion, upon which a new diversity will feed.

Thanks this is a concise summary and describes our dilemma well.

[ShroomsKit]

So if Gox fucks up people on other exchanges are expected to panic sell? Is this correct?

[RicePicker]

So if Gox fucks up people on other exchanges are expected to panic sell? Is this correct?

Kinda what happened when China announced they are going to restrict banks and payment processors from dealing with bitcoin exchanges....

[surfer43]

<iframe width="350" height="240" src="//w2.countingdownto.com/464321" frameborder="0"></iframe><p><a href="http://countingdownto.com">Countdown Clocks</a></p>

lulz no html allowed 

[creekbore]

<iframe width="350" height="240" src="//w2.countingdownto.com/464321" frameborder="0"></iframe><p><a href="http://countingdownto.com">Countdown Clocks</a></p>

lulz no html allowed 

Go ahead....laugh...laugh at the old man struggle with technology     

[OldGeek]

Go ahead....laugh...laugh at the old man struggle with technology     

Us oldsters need to stick together.  If you gorra post images, then you gunna need to use the BB codes.  Like this [ and that ].

[OldGeek]

Been away from the interwebs for a while and I'm surprised to find practically no change.

BTC-e seems to be miming MtSux while Stamp is more conservative.  Trading ranges on these two are hanging in at ~25 peak-to-peak.  No further FUD about gox, so we are just circling the wagons.

Sigh.  So much wasted time on such a worthless exchange.

What's the latest consensus?  Up, down, sidewise, or ? 

[creekbore]

Go ahead....laugh...laugh at the old man struggle with technology     

Us oldsters need to stick together.  If you gorra post images, then you gunna need to use the BB codes.  Like this [ and that ].

Absolutely.

I tried all the tags possible, the problem was the iframe...as surfer pointed out...no html allowed.

Anyway...bottom line is Tokyo office hours nearly over and still no announcement.

I'm off for a swim...expect all hell to break loose in next hour while I'm away

[kromer]

So if Gox fucks up people on other exchanges are expected to panic sell? Is this correct?

Maybe a dip. But I think Gox is mostly factored in on the other exchanges, in which case there might be a rise, when people realize that the world is not going to end.