Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitdig]

I believe after Gox issues it will take us longer to get to 3200, so they will have time to fix it

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[zyk]

and shortly you´d be happy when finally got you craptofuck out of cold storage that you get the 121 dollars

which still is an optimal deal for TBF members

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..

Fun fac, it's easy to trick an order book if you don't do that !

[zyk]

bearstamp is leading the way in the outgoing tide.....nevertheless my bet is on BTC-e who don´t want to be seen

naked next....they were already announing the announcment of announcing a date for auditing...goxed?

[zyk]

watch how easy it was for Mark just bowing down saying sorry and thank you while laughing his ass off

and delegating the rest to the laywers.....a bit embarassing may be inside the wider community...but

btc-e doesn´t need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye

[billyjoeallen]

We should get together and buy an island with bitcoins, call it Satoshi Island and have the currency as BTC of course, use the bitcoin protocol to vote trade etc.. and live happily ever after.

It would be nothing but endless Goxings. And as with any utopia, who would clean the toilets?

That's not the biggest problem. Banksters would launch a propaganda war calling Bitcoin Island a hive of gambling, prostitution, drugs and money laundering; then it would get invaded. The Seasteading Institute is even dumber. At least Islands can't be sunk. This is a DISTRIBUTED network. We can have a group hug at the conventions.

[bitdig]

btc-e doesn´t EVEN need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye

watch how easy it was for Mark just bowing down saying sorry and thank you while laughing his ass off

and delegating the rest to the laywers.....a bit embarassing may be inside the wider community...but

btc-e doesn´t need to confront any consequence saying thank you and good bye

[zyk]

oh no ..I forgot OKcoin....this bug is searching for the windshield next....raising the fees 300 % for

withdrawls....is the 5% emergency fee next?

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Mar/01

(Since by now I must be in most people's "ignore" lists, advance warnings seem unnecessary.)

This is no fun...

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-28, 22:19 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Saturday 2014-03-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3522 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3479 CNY
Error: 43 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 575 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 572 USD
Error: 3 USD

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday Mar/02

Trade volume V_d for today Mar/01 is already ~102 kBTC, and volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 100 BTC; so, by the new rule V_h/V_d < 0.005, it is definitely a True Slumber Point.

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Feb/28 19:00--19:59) was 3464 CNY.  The new data point leads to a slight revision of the last segment of the new trendline.  The average of the True Slumber Points since the Second Karpeles Catastrophe of Feb/20 (namely, Feb/21, 23--25, 27--28, and Mar/01) is now 3515 CNY instead of 3522. Thus,

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-03-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3515 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 572 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle almost outside the right margin in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp was 6.08. That is so close to the factor R = 6.12 that I have been using, that I prefer to stick to the latter.  Thus, the prediction for Bitstamp is simply that for Huobi, divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: The prediction is void and null if Mark Karpeles issues another press release, or somebody sneezes.

[Carra23]

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..

It keeps changing depending on how high the price went.

[JayJuanGee]

After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now...
I expect much higher volatility from what we are used...
And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....

If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.

the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way  down (similar to 2011)

I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again

currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero

YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...


likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...

After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.

Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.

AH  HA!!!!!!   The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!......     The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......

No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.

My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....

So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash).  If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours.  True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.  

Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?  

Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...

I think that you make some very good points, especially regarding a potential for volatility in the event that there is actually less capital invested and/or circulating in the exchanges.  Nonetheless, I remain uncertain about whether the scenario is going to play out in the way in which you describe.  At this point, it remains unclear about whether the 750K-ish GOX coins have already been introduced into the overall bitcoin circulation.  

On the other hand, we have a large number of institutional investors that have likely been chomping at the bits to get into bitcoin; however, they have been holding off in their getting in based on December/January uncertainties about the status of China... and then February concerns about Mt. Gox.....   NOW, the China situation seems to be more clear and the Gox situation is somewhat clarified and contained (and I would suggest sufficiently clarified and contained - even though  NOT completely clarified b/c some of the story still does NOT quite add up).  

In that regard, I stick to my guns with my earlier prediction of more likely moving towards the $750-$850 direction - and I remain betting my fiat into BTC accordingly - though of course, I have NO real insider information besides what I read in various parts of the BTC community.

[JorgeStolfi]

Whats up with the movement the last 3 days? I've never seen this currency stay at the same price for so long really. Explain? For the last months the bots been all over the place (bitstamp for example) and trading/manipulating the price like crazy. Why not now?

Actually the price charts have been this dull before: e.g. from Dec/30 to Jan/2,  from Jan/20 to Jan/24, and from Jan/29 to Feb/05.

The first interval must be connected to the Western new year, the last one spans the Chinese New Year holidays.   I have no guess for  Jan20--24.

Investors must now be exhausted after seven straight days of highly intense trading and unbelievable news.  So, now that the bad news have ceased, many of them may have relaxed and paused for a while.

Also, the definitive closure of MtGOX removed a major source of "noise" in the market.  For example, many ill-informed investors may have tried to do arbitrage with MtGOX.  Others may have been "withdrawing" BTC from it via bitcoinbuilder and selling it on the other markets.  And perhaps the MtGOX thieves were trying to unload their booty.  

[yrtrnc]

Whats up with the movement the last 3 days? I've never seen this currency stay at the same price for so long really. Explain? For the last months the bots been all over the place (bitstamp for example) and trading/manipulating the price like crazy. Why not now?

Actually the price charts have been this dull before: e.g. from Dec/30 to Jan/2,  from Jan/20 to Jan/24, and from Jan/29 to Feb/05.

The first interval must be connected to the Western new year, the last one spans the Chinese New Year holidays.   I have no guess for  Jan20--24.

Investors must now be exhausted after seven straight days of highly intense trading and unbelievable news.  So, now that the bad news have ceased, many of them may have relaxed and paused for a while.

Also, the definitive closure of MtGOX removed a major source of "noise" in the market.  For example, many ill-informed investors may have tried to do arbitrage with MtGOX.  Others may have been "withdrawing" BTC from it via bitcoinbuilder and selling it on the other markets.  And perhaps the MtGOX thieves were trying to unload their booty.  

Amen brother

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

these indicators are driving me nuts! 1D macd has a weak cross for 2 candles but stoch rsi is still insanely high even higher than before. the order book on stamp looks really strong but it's still not nearly as large as the gox order book used to be when gox was market leader. also, China still leads, which seems weird and dangerous.

[zyk]

put yourself in  the boots of an exchange owner...of course can and are they able to deal in bitcoin just by

bookentrys as heretofore nobody wanted to withdraw more than 10 % of the Fiat or BTC...given the

unaccountability of their books it is more than tempting to deal on your own exchange but when the early

chain - letter birds decide to cash out where to find the money all at once?....or why the hell find all the

money all at once ?

[JayJuanGee]

Christopher Walken, it's great to have you on board with Bitcoin.

What is the point about Walken?  Can you explain? I looked up Walken, and surely I cannot figure out the reference.

More cowbell!
(Walken talks erratically. You type erratically)

Yeah, right...   a little humor can't hurt.... and thanks for a possible explanation...

Fun facts, did you know that you can only set a max selling price of 3200 usd per btc on btc-e..

Does this mean that BTC will NEVER go beyond $3,200?  interesting!

[yrtrnc]

these indicators are driving me nuts! 1D macd has a weak cross for 2 candles but stoch rsi is still insanely high even higher than before. the order book on stamp looks really strong but it's still not nearly as large as the gox order book used to be when gox was market leader. also, China still leads, which seems weird and dangerous.

My guess is, people are waiting to see what happens. Trust is damaged and will take a while to get people spending again. Also, people have put their coins into cold storage following all the recent rumors and problems.