Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[porcupine87]

less than 50K till 200 that is what in bitstamp order book at the moment, and there is only bitstamp and btc-e for trading now, BTC-e have a very tinny book order, you could bring the price to 0 with 10K dump on BTC-e,

This would be no real price anymore. How many people would by for 100$? Many people. But do you think all this people park their money on an exchange?
The same with the way up to 1000$. I would maybe sell a few for 1000$, but I have the coins for that now in cold storage, because I don't see it possible, that I wake up in the morning and then "Oh shit, yesterday night it jumped to 1000$ and now back to 600$."
This is economics 101, too!

Yes I know, btc-e had a flash crash from 650 to 102 and back to 600 within 5min. Everything is possible, but I buy that with a threat, that the exchange gets robbed or bankrupt. So I rather stay in cold storage.

nope from now until june we are in a gradual climb to $800. July 1st-10th the spike to 5-9k peak will happen, then 3k~ to end of year for the next spike sometime April 2015.

Why?

[mellowyellow]

Mark my words, a large whale buy is coming, this will spark a rally similar to the rally after the china crash. There's are many traders waiting to buy back in who are hoping this isn't the bottom yet but have their fingers on the trigger, look at the order book on Bitstamp, buyers far outweigh sellers. There are also many ex gox customers who need to buy back in. Don't get left behind, when it happens, it will happen quickly.

I expect 820 within 7 days, if not more.

less than 50K till 200 that is what in bitstamp order book at the moment, and there is only bitstamp and btc-e for trading now, BTC-e have a very tinny book order, you could bring the price to 0 with 10K dump on BTC-e, dont forget that there is 12 million bitcoin on existence, that 50K against the 12M is nothing .

and also if bidders would think that the price at 560 or at 600 is reasonable they would place their orders there, but I see only 9K bitcoin to 500 and 20K to 400 and 35 to 300 and most down less than 200, people base their bids based on what they think bitcoin is worth, and the same works for sellers, they put sell orders on what they think their bitcoins are worth, but at the moment buyers are not voting for $560.


IMHO there is no whale that would pump the price just like that, if someone decided to buy 10K bitcoin at a market order, then there is only 3 scenarios: a) pump and dump b) insider trading c) someone who doesn't give a fuck about his money and don't care about buying at 100 or 1000 which means he is not a whale but rather an idiot.

You are only talking about the buy end, there are only 18k for sale up to $1000 at Bitstamp, and only 21.28k to $5000.

yes, we are at the adoption fase of this technology, Bitcoin is not gold yet, also if you decide that your Bitcoin is worth $1000 and will not sell for less and if  buyers think that $1000 is not the real value you will get stuck with that bitcoin and no matter how many you have there is it 1 or 50K bitcoin you wont be able to sell.

remember:  "your item is worth only what the best bidder is willing to pay for and nothing more" commerce 101.


I also would like to point out why you shouldn't care allot about the ask book, people will not leave their bitcoins on exchanges for long time, so for example if I have 10BTC in which I want to sell at $1000/BTC, I wouldn't leave them on any exchange for months, I would wait to see demand increasing toward that point, and only then I would send the bitcoins and open an order and maybe wait a couple of days for it to fulfill.

but honestly I usually execute a market orders when selling, I very rarely open a selling order, I usually wait for support to build up at the price I wish to sell at then execute a market sell order

I think you are manipulating (maybe unconsciously) the facts to fit what you would like to happen, all of your arguments could be applied to a bullish or bearish position. You can apply logic to how buys or sells work, create charts, but the facts are that strange things happen, people do execute large market orders, buy and sells, and it doesn't make much sense to day traders, but they happen all the time.

To leave this channel we need a buyer / seller with the muscle and inclination to move the market. The market is like a coiled spring at the moment, and I believe more need / want to buy in than want to sell (they have had the last 3 weeks to sell).

I'm calling a rally, you are calling a further drop, we'll come back to this in a week and see who is right, fair enough?

[billyjoeallen]

Little reminder about SHTF situations: http://www.silverdoctors.com/one-year-in-hellsurviving-a-full-shtf-collapse-in-bosnia/

Interesting read.  The most valuable lesson to learn from that story is don't let yourself get trapped in a blockaded city in the first place.

[MickeyT2008]

How is the situation in Ukraine going to affect Bitcoin ? What if a new war in Europe starts ?

I'm tense...

Gosh, didn't Europe have already enough wars.... one of my biggest fears is the war, but how will bitcoin help you in that situation ? when the infrastructure is destroyed no fiat neither Bitcoin is going to help you, we will eat grass if that happens.


 

The original design requirements the internet were for a decentralised communication system which can automatically reroute itself around areas of severe damage in the event of a nuclear war.  This means that both the internet and therefore bitcoin would survive a war in Europe.  I'm not going to speculate as to what that would do to its price, but it would survive

[tailor]

nope from now until june we are in a gradual climb to $800. July 1st-10th the spike to 5-9k peak will happen, then 3k~ to end of year for the next spike sometime April 2015.

And you base this one what ?

The P/E ratio is solid in this one...

The force is strong in this one...

[EuroTrash]

I really never understood your posts....

Me neither. It keeps reading "This user is currently ignored."

[mmitech]

less than 50K till 200 that is what in bitstamp order book at the moment, and there is only bitstamp and btc-e for trading now, BTC-e have a very tinny book order, you could bring the price to 0 with 10K dump on BTC-e,

This would be no real price anymore. How many people would by for 100$? Many people. But do you think all this people park their money on an exchange?
The same with the way up to 1000$. I would maybe sell a few for 1000$, but I have the coins for that now in cold storage, because I don't see it possible, that I wake up in the morning and then "Oh shit, yesterday night it jumped to 1000$ and now back to 600$."
This is economics 101, too!

Yes I know, btc-e had a flash crash from 650 to 102 and back to 600 within 5min. Everything is possible, but I buy that with a threat, that the exchange gets robbed or bankrupt. So I rather stay in cold storage.

nope from now until june we are in a gradual climb to $800. July 1st-10th the spike to 5-9k peak will happen, then 3k~ to end of year for the next spike sometime April 2015.

Why?

well you just confirmed my post BTW, and you just figured out how bitcoin volatility works read your post again and come back at me....

[mmitech]

I think you are manipulating (maybe unconsciously) the facts to fit what you would like to happen, all of your arguments could be applied to a bullish or bearish position. You can apply logic to how buys or sells work, create charts, but the facts are that strange things happen, people do execute large market orders, buy and sells, and it doesn't make much sense to day traders, but they happen all the time.

To leave this channel we need a buyer / seller with the muscle and inclination to move the market. The market is like a coiled spring at the moment, and I believe more need / want to buy in than want to sell (they have had the last 3 weeks to sell).

I'm calling a rally, you are calling a further drop, we'll come back to this in a week and see who is right, fair enough?

I am a so small player that I couldn't even manipulate anything if I wanted so, but be assured that I do hold more than the FIAT laying on exchanges if my predictions are wrong... and to point out "again" I am just speculating I am far from acting as I know things....

but I would really appreciate an input about how the price would go up now, at the end this is why we are here, to track the price movements

[machasm]

I am quite new to this game and have begun mining alts late Oct 13.
These are some of the points I have found frustrating when dealing with bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies.

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?
I would prefer to be able to leave coins and fiat on trusted exchanges so that I can set up buy and sell orders but I am absolutely paranoid about doing so since this MtGox debacle.
It would seem to me that until people feel safe trusting their money (be it coins or fiat) to these exchanges then this must be really stifling the growth of cryptocurrencies.
Mac.

[zyk]

who wants to be seen hodling buttcoins if everbody and his mother knows now that its worked as an insider ripp off scheme where the ponzi heads even get to

file for creditors protection instead of being thrown in jail !

nice cover up for sucking in the last bagholders to offload ther bookentrys and run

I really never understood your posts....

the prices are made at the exchanges and Gox serves as the best example what happens when everybody wants to see the real money he can get when selling buttcoins

for his bookentrys he believed being bitcoins at an exchange......what will be the price then?

[mellowyellow]

I think you are manipulating (maybe unconsciously) the facts to fit what you would like to happen, all of your arguments could be applied to a bullish or bearish position. You can apply logic to how buys or sells work, create charts, but the facts are that strange things happen, people do execute large market orders, buy and sells, and it doesn't make much sense to day traders, but they happen all the time.

To leave this channel we need a buyer / seller with the muscle and inclination to move the market. The market is like a coiled spring at the moment, and I believe more need / want to buy in than want to sell (they have had the last 3 weeks to sell).

I'm calling a rally, you are calling a further drop, we'll come back to this in a week and see who is right, fair enough?

I am a so small player that I couldn't even manipulate anything if I wanted so, but be assured that I do hold more than the FIAT laying on exchanges if my predictions are wrong... and to point out "again" I am just speculating I am far from acting as I know things....

but I would really appreciate an input about how the price would go up now, at the end this is why we are here, to track the price movements

I didn't mean you were manipulating the market, just the inner debate in your head. I was doing the same which is why I felt I recognised it in you, I've been permabear since the china crash, and probably would still be now if my friends hadn't started asking me about getting bitcoins for them in the last few days. This made me reappraise the whole situation, I believe nothing but a flash crash would take this market below 475-500 again, if you look at the charts only flash crashes have taken us down there since November, 550 is a pretty solid support area. Chart wise there could be a large inverted head and shoulders developing on stamp, but tbh I really do think we need a large buy (or sell) to move this thing. It could happen slowly as other people have predicted, but hey, this is bitcoin

[mmitech]

who wants to be seen hodling buttcoins if everbody and his mother knows now that its worked as an insider ripp off scheme where the ponzi heads even get to

file for creditors protection instead of being thrown in jail !

nice cover up for sucking in the last bagholders to offload ther bookentrys and run

I really never understood your posts....

the prices are made at the exchanges and Gox serves as the best example what happens when everybody wants to see the real money he can get when selling buttcoins

for his bookentrys he believed being bitcoins at an exchange......what will be the price then?

again I still don't understand your post.... but never mind you don't need to explain your self anymore...

[billyjoeallen]

How is the situation in Ukraine going to affect Bitcoin ? What if a new war in Europe starts ?

I'm tense...

Gosh, didn't Europe have already enough wars.... one of my biggest fears is the war, but how will bitcoin help you in that situation ? when the infrastructure is destroyed no fiat neither Bitcoin is going to help you, we will eat grass if that happens.


 

The original design requirements the internet were for a decentralised communication system which can automatically reroute itself around areas of severe damage in the event of a nuclear war.  This means that both the internet and therefore bitcoin would survive a war in Europe.  I'm not going to speculate as to what that would do to its price, but it would survive

In war, fiat currencies rapidly become worthless. Credit evaporates first, then cash, then precious metals as the economy devolves into barter. Quality information becomes a matter of life and death. Bitcoin will be ideally situated to purchase intel and fund covert, rescue operations. Paying spies may prove to be the "killer" app. 

[Adrian-x]

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?

check out Open Transaction - this technology should be coming to an exchange near you, just ask for it. (Supply and Demand)

[jl2012]

I am quite new to this game and have begun mining alts late Oct 13.
These are some of the points I have found frustrating when dealing with bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies.

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?
I would prefer to be able to leave coins and fiat on trusted exchanges so that I can set up buy and sell orders but I am absolutely paranoid about doing so since this MtGox debacle.
It would seem to me that until people feel safe trusting their money (be it coins or fiat) to these exchanges then this must be really stifling the growth of cryptocurrencies.
Mac.

Actually this dilemma can be perfectly solved by mutli-sig transaction. The function is available in the bitcoin protocol back 2009, but no one is really using it.

EDIT: What I mean is that, with multi-sig transaction, you have a safety level of cold wallet AND the ability to sell instantly

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[yrtrnc]

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?

check out Open Transaction - this technology should be coming to an exchange near you, just ask for it. (Supply and Demand)

How would open transactions be implemented to current exchanges in your opinion?

Thanks

[zyk]

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?

check out Open Transaction - this technology should be coming to an exchange near you, just ask for it. (Supply and Demand)

How would open transactions be implemented to current exchanges in your opinion?

Thanks

They won´t...the maguc heads of the ponzi can´t show you yet that your money is gone

[Adrian-x]

1). The exchanges appear to be unregulated and trusting them can lead to a load of heartache (Read MtGox here).
2). Time taken to send bitcoins to these exchanges (with confirmations) can be rather lengthy and this may lead to missing any good buy/sell windows.

With these 2 issues in mind, can anyone see a way round them so that you can leave coins on exchanges safely? Or at least speed up the transaction?

check out Open Transaction - this technology should be coming to an exchange near you, just ask for it. (Supply and Demand)

How would open transactions be implemented to current exchanges in your opinion?

Thanks

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teNzIFu5L70

[Yololintian]

Any speculation as to why LTC/BTC and LTC/USD are going down a bit? Litecoin seems to be an even bigger bear market atm.