Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[...]
Did anyone notice WO is awfully quiet? What is happening?

The WO might have forked and we are unknowingly on the minority chain. It might as well just be JJG taking a little break.  

I am back now, and stirring up shit...

sorry

bout

dat.

Benzos  

You and Mic can go sodomize yourselves with the same length of rusted pipe going around, you retarded fucks.

This is an absolute repugnant asshole comment meant nothing more as a pointed jab, rooted in complete ignorance.

It's almost like you guys are pretending I'm a different person or something right now.

I'm still the same old Bob.

?? So.... ?? What did I have done wrong??

You did not suck dick forcefully and passionately enough.

You fucker!!!!  (#nohomo)


hahahahahahaha

I cannot follow bob atm...

Not surprising.

You're so vain.
I bet you think that song is about you ?

Don't you ?

And to think I came so close to revealing myself to you back on that other thing before V8 went fulltard.

I am trying to remember when V8 when fulltard.... hahahaha

I remember V8 lost a bet against hairy... hahahahahahaha.. sucks to be v8.    

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.

Congrats Icy.

When was the last time we were this  quiet?

Yeah, congrats to Icygreen, on rising through the WO ranks!

Very quiet indeed. It does feel that something has changed... Only one force can remedy this stagnation, and that force is Bitcoin. A pump to $10k+ would surely liven up the place. Not to mention $20k+...

HoDL strong brothers. It will come.

Just be positive, and that positivity will come back to you 100% guaranteed. Sounds so cliché, I know, but it's true and it works -- whenever you have a bad argument with someone, or break up a friendship, just ask yourself if you ever were even a tiny bit unfair or did something wrong. If the answer is Yes and/or you've had a rough sleep the night after the incident, just call that person the next morning, meet up and hug him/her. If he/she doesn't want to do it, fair enough, you move on with your life. But that second chance after things have cooled off is essential. Speaking from experience.

And, sometimes you have given that person enough chances, and when they continue to be in a "bridge burning" mood, you have to let that other person go, at some point.  No more chances.  

I am disappointed in you Bob.

I'm disappointed with a lot of you.

The feeling is mutual.

You are welcome to ignore me or request to have infofront delete all my posts, and have me banned from these forums if your little "Fight Club" is such holy and hallowed grounds.

That banning, suspending and/or deleting seeming like increasingly a likelihood.  Hate filled trolls, even if they are hating themselves, are likely not very much appreciated by too many folks who are trying to come to this thread in order to interact about king daddy and related topics... rather than with increasingly outrageous drama-filled-queens.

Looks like he is gone; thus, poor one out for our homie bob.

Sanity slowly returns to the Wall as we mourn the fallen.

Carry on.

ToxicMoxic beat me too it, again....  

-1 WO 

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[bitebits]

https://twitter.com/erikvoorhees/status/1284968530673307648

The properties of money are widely cited: durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, scarcity, and verifiability. #Bitcoin  emerged, and added a new property no prior money ever held: immutability.  With this, it has a fair chance of becoming the base-layer money of Earth.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

[...]

Just be positive, and that positivity will come back to you 100% guaranteed. Sounds so cliché, I know, but it's true and it works -- whenever you have a bad argument with someone, or break up a friendship, just ask yourself if you ever were even a tiny bit unfair or did something wrong. If the answer is Yes and/or you've had a rough sleep the night after the incident, just call that person the next morning, meet up and hug him/her. If he/she doesn't want to do it, fair enough, you move on with your life. But that second chance after things have cooled off is essential. Speaking from experience.

And, sometimes you have given that person enough chances, and when they continue to be in a "bridge burning" mood, you have to let that other person go, at some point.  No more chances.  

[...]

Absolutely correct!

[kellrobinson]

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

+1 WOsMerit

Glad you like my pictures.
Illustrative chart of the logistic, don't take at face value numerically.  Shows how the linear chart typically squashes data in the lower orders of magnitude.  You can barely see the price data in red.  And you can see how unreliable an extrapolation that extends orders of magnitude beyond the data.



This curve-fitting exercise comparing the logistic and polynomial models does have some value if you don't take it too far, or too literally.  At least, it directs one's attention at the long term.
I didn't curve-fit the stock to flow model, which paints an unrealistic picture in the long run.  And I don't bother with models that put time on a log scale, which is nonsensical.

Of course, time is logarithmic, but it doesn't start on January 3, 2009.  It started 14 billion years ago, which means that for all practical purposes time is linear in our lives and for millions of years before and after.
http://www.turbulence-online.com/Publications/log_time_cosmology_final_printed.pdf

[JayJuanGee]

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

+1 WOsMerit

Glad you like my pictures.
Illustrative chart of the logistic, don't take at face value numerically.  Shows how the linear chart typically squashes data in the lower orders of magnitude.  You can barely see the price data in red.  And you can see how unreliable an extrapolation that extends orders of magnitude beyond the data.



This curve-fitting exercise comparing the logistic and polynomial models does have some value if you don't take it too far, or too literally.  At least, it directs one's attention at the long term.
I didn't curve-fit the stock to flow model, which paints an unrealistic picture in the long run.  And I don't bother with models that put time on a log scale, which is nonsensical.

Of course, time is logarithmic, but it doesn't start on January 3, 2009.  It started 14 billion years ago, which means that for all practical purposes time is linear in our lives and for millions of years before and after.
http://www.turbulence-online.com/Publications/log_time_cosmology_final_printed.pdf

Even though you are asserting a 14 billion year timeline, any kind of specific new invention that has paradigm shifting attributes is going to see a curve that is a lot more tightly packed, including the fact that some inventions might have births and deaths that are on very short time horizons, and for the sake of us mere mortal humans, we can live, and prosper, before we die by picking the right horses during our short time here.

We are going to lose some of the picture, even when we talk about time periods that are longer than 20 years, even if we might make some investment decisions for longer time periods, we can also change our investment allotments during shorter time horizons, even make substantial changes every few years, even if we might have some assets that kind of end up being killer all life performers that we might not have expected to be so in the beginning of our investment lives, whether we start investing when we are teenagers or in our twenties or thirties, but even with that if we did not have parents to really guide us with those kinds of choices, we might be stuck with some of our investment choices, too in terms of longer (lifelong) implications that we did not realize when we started down the road of investing our time and/or money in such direction.

[Heater]

Bitcoin trading in such a tight range for so long must be a real PIA for the traders.

I see many posts predicting a dramatic breakout to the upside and I blame the S2F model for the groupthink. Bitcoin always seems to find a way to surprise everyone and cause maximum carnage. Things do look bullish, maybe the time isn't right? Who knows.

Anyhow, I've been reading this thread for almost 7 years. 7 years! People come and go. We have had (and still have) our fair share of trolls, spammers, shit coiners, and arseholes. I really wish they'd all just f-off, but instead, I block them until they drop-off. Joffe and roach come to mind....

Every now and then we get a few newbies who are intelligent, thoughtful, and articulate - they're the people that keep it interesting in here. It's sad when they leave but life goes on.

Bob - thanks for your posts and know you will be missed. I'm playing a long game and will be hanging around a bit more.

[bitebits]

https://btc.com/stats/diff

Halfway into the two weeks difficulty period. Next difficulty adjustment expected to be +6% and ATH. The Bitcoin network is in top notch conduction, bullish!

Next difficulty adjustment in 24 blocks. Expected +9.5% to 17.29T, which is an All Time High (previous ATH was 16.55T around the halving).

Bitcoin boring or bearish? Far from!

Halfway into the next two week difficulty period and another +6.37% estimated towards a new ATH of 18.45T.

Fundamentals solid, miners extremely bullish. This is per two weeks (!), mind blowing considering the current already beyond imagination hashes per second.

Look beyond the current price and you need to wear .

[serveria.com]

Bob - thanks for your posts and know you will be missed. I'm playing a long game and will be hanging around a bit more.

I hope you understand a piece of rusty pipe is now dangerously close to your anus? 

[nutildah]

mind blowing considering the current already beyond imagination hashes per second.

True... other than bitcoin, the only time those types of numbers ever come into play are calculating the number of atoms in things or the distances between stars.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@cryptosommelier
It looks like bitcoin is right on schedule




Better image -

[BobLawblaw]

...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

...

Expect a price move then surely.....

@MrSurfvivor
Gonna blow 🌋 #Bitcoin 

[BobLawblaw]

[BobLawblaw]

This may likely be the last text post I make on this site.

Going to make an attempt to just post relevant market information without any comment. No more meming. Increased my ignore list, as an unfortunate side effect of everything that has gone on, after much self-reflection. Really have no desire to interact with people here any more, but recognize the thread has its place of importance in the Bitcoin sphere, with regards to staying on top of news.

Hope I'm able, at the very least, to share what I see happening on Twitter.

Good or Bad. Draw your own conclusions sorta thing.

[sirazimuth]

<merit dump>
Well that was unexpected and generous.
Thank you kindly, Bob. I will endeavor to pay forward to worthy posts.
Cheers and good luck.

[dragonvslinux]

30-day volatility reaches new 18-month low of 1.14%, as previously anticipated it can now briefly drop below 1% before a big move in either direction. Worth remembering that last time volatility dropped below 1% in November 2018 it lasted one day before a 50% move within a few weeks. Given the lack of return of volume & volitility in previous weeks as previously expected, price is now ready to make a big move in the coming days imo, as opposed to the coming weeks. Don't get caught with your pants down:



Unsurprisingly price action supports this theory of an impending increase of volatility as btc sits at the end of conflicting bullish & bearish patterns:



Currently remaining neutral until confirmation, while having a slightly bearish bias.

[AlcoHoDL]

I just hope that it won't ever be necessary to add WO next to BCH & BSV:

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
A boring observation of $9,166

I just hope that it won't ever be necessary to add WO next to BCH & BSV

Who give a F**K to shitcoin? 

Are you saying that Bitcoin finally is stable. 😜

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Continuing with a mind-numbing lack of price movement... currently $9180USD/$12452CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

At least it's not going down. We need some real upward movement to wake this place up. Too much boring negativity.

C'mon Bitcoin. Rise and shine.

[JSRAW]