Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WastedLTC]

Obviously this sounds like a conspiracy theory but I fail to see how it makes sense otherwise.

some say it was an attack on crypto, but I'm not convinced that is the motive.   

"After the recent hack, Twitter has introduced a new restriction, which prevents posting crypto addresses.  Right now, no one is able to post random-looking strings of numbers and letters.  While the move will prevent the kind of scams that users fell victim to, it will also limit crypto users."

[Biodom]

kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.

There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.

In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue).  By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling.  The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.  
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future.  Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.

I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.

Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.png
You can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used: https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculator

You need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart.  That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.

I am sorry, but this discussion is premature at best. Why fit something into a curve that is not supposed to fit?
Can you fit AAPL or AMZN into a formula? personalities, technology changes, etc , etc.
BTW, a curve suggesting 200K in 10 years is an impossibility. If it would go so slowly, it would fail long beforehand. People are impatient.
We are in a 3 year bear market and people already losing interest. The crowd is only excited if you have a parabola.
I understand S2F, but i don't get fitting btc into a regression or any other curve.

[DaRude]

Hmm chickun is not arising

[soxxx]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

[Biodom]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

I agree that this is probable, but the question arises..when will it stop? Never? Are we at a verge of basic income and MMT?
Too much resistance to those ideas, so it is unlikely to happen. However, passing every 6 mo a 2-3 trillion bill does not seem likely either.
At the moment, it is clearly gold and high beta stocks that benefit the most. Bitcoin is not in play and I wonder why. maybe because it was in a deep correction for too long and lost its appeal with the fast money. It could be temporary, though. At least, this is my hope, but the whole apple-cart is upside down.

If the trend described below is true, then we would have a deflationary impulse as well:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/wage-cuts-economy-crisis-368508

[OutOfMemory]

My thoughts: Bitcoin is going to pop one way or the other before the end of July. IMO it will depend on the Global Market. In the USA people are going lose their unemployment benefits at the end of July............what is likely to happen, is that we will see another huge stimulus bill pushed through which will lead to more inflation of the money supply. This should push the Global Markets higher, which in turn will allow Bitcoin to move higher too.

Im going to lean bullish here.

I agree that this is probable, but the question arises..when will it stop? Never? Are we at a verge of basic income and MMT?
Too much resistance to those ideas, so it is unlikely to happen. However, passing every 6 mo a 2-3 trillion bill does not seem likely either.
At the moment, it is clearly gold and high beta stocks that benefit the most. Bitcoin is not in play and I wonder why. maybe because it was in a deep correction for too long and lost its appeal with the fast money. It could be temporary, though. At least, this is my hope, but the whole apple-cart is upside down.

Regardless, there will be dumps as long as miners aren't finished liquidating spare coins.
This might also explain (partially) all the sideway-ish movements after the halvenings.
When the dumping has finished, the price has a chance to rise gradually into the next FOMO over the course of 1-2 years. I guess the next FOMO bull will be weaker, relatively, mainly because of higher corn dollar price.

Imagine SOMA disclaimer here  

[El duderino_]

I cannot follow bob atm...

Not surprising.

You're so vain.
I bet you think that song is about you ?

Don't you ?

And to think I came so close to revealing myself to you back on that other thing before V8 went fulltard.

Mmm I can only think one thing.... I have revealed myself fully to all those on our meet and I’m very glad I did so....

Also V8 is an extremely honorable man... you and everyone can take my word for that...
For you bob.... I cannot find one thing I did wrong, but see it as you pleased

Early drunk HODLsleep

Cheers brothers

[AlcoHoDL]

JSRAW sealed the deal :-)

Is he a Legendary now?

No he is still Hero Member. Icygreen is Legendary now.

Congrats Icy.

When was the last time we were this  quiet?

Yeah, congrats to Icygreen, on rising through the WO ranks!

Very quiet indeed. It does feel that something has changed... Only one force can remedy this stagnation, and that force is Bitcoin. A pump to $10k+ would surely liven up the place. Not to mention $20k+...

HoDL strong brothers. It will come.

Just be positive, and that positivity will come back to you 100% guaranteed. Sounds so cliché, I know, but it's true and it works -- whenever you have a bad argument with someone, or break up a friendship, just ask yourself if you ever were even a tiny bit unfair or did something wrong. If the answer is Yes and/or you've had a rough sleep the night after the incident, just call that person the next morning, meet up and hug him/her. If he/she doesn't want to do it, fair enough, you move on with your life. But that second chance after things have cooled off is essential. Speaking from experience.

[BobLawblaw]

* BobLawblaw passes the rusted pipe to Toxic and V8 so they can have their way with each other, like that final scene in "Requiem for a Dream"

"First Rule"

Seriously ?

Go fuck yourselves.

You want to know what started my downward spiral with this thread ?

It was that place, and V8's bullshit.

An absolute OBLITERATION of trust.

Me: "So this is a hard partition right ?"
Everyone: "Yes"
V8: "But... but... I anonymized the data"

And I'm the one with the problem.

Riiiight.

[Toxic2040]

So now your going to behave like a little child having a fit in walmart because mommy wont buy you a candy bar?  Really? Turn off your internet for a month or so and think about things for awhile is my advice.

I am disappointed in you Bob.

[Hyperjacked]

Hmm chickun is not arising
[/
This is a planned punishing attack by the big banks with all the free cash from qe ! The plan is to go sideways as long as possible and break the hodlers!!! Jamie diamond balls has been buying and shorting for years...imho
You guys must see this... right?
Disclaimer: someday Jamie will feed the homeless investors

Edit sorry vacation iPhone.... fat fingers

[BobLawblaw]

I am disappointed in you Bob.

I'm disappointed with a lot of you.

The feeling is mutual.

You are welcome to ignore me or request to have infofront delete all my posts, and have me banned from these forums if your little "Fight Club" is such holy and hallowed grounds.

[Wekkel]

It’s that time in the cycle again, right?

 

[Hyperjacked]

Bob , try and find peace and your center ...
I feel for you brother...

[OutOfMemory]

It’s that time in the cycle again, right?

 

I was thinking about that too.
But i wasn't around that early, so it was only a feeling until i read your post.

Seems Bob has reasons. Whatever these are...
I hope it will turn out well and won't happen again.

Interesting times

[Biodom]

Can we get some memes for a 'flat' btc (apart from that with a poking stick)?
I'll start:

[Toxic2040]

-snipped-
Can we get some memes..

+1 WOsMerit


Sanity slowly returns to the Wall as we mourn the fallen.

Carry on.

[suchmoon]

Can we get some memes for a 'flat' btc (apart from that with a poking stick).

Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

[Toxic2040]

That is really good...freaking deep.

+5 WOsMerits

[sirazimuth]

last few pages

yikes...