Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53763530

I don't get it how people just accept this kind of bullshit as a normal thing...

::sigh::. It is.

It ain't right, mind you, but it's perfectly normal.

The key to remember is that it's not your money and it never was.

Bitcoin... is different.

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[Heater]

It really does seem like the mother of all bubbles. I give it another 2 years absolute max.

Alan Kohler
@AlanKohler
Monetary financing of the budget is not on the agenda in Australia. I wonder what it’s being financed with? Clam shells? Anyway, it doesn’t matter. The budget is being financed with bonds, and the RBA is buying them along with others. That’s OK then.

https://twitter.com/AlanKohler/status/1294083511565991936

[yefi]

Well doh... seed phrase is supposed to be secure in the first place. It's essentially the private key to all your private keys, or whatever addresses correspond to that seed.

Keep that stainless steel bolt and nut safe.

12-word seed phrases do seem secure unless (a) there are flaws in the implementation that reduce entropy such as the pseudorandom number generator, (b) attacker knows something about your phrase or (c) there is a quadratic improvement in computing power such as with quantum computers.

Interesting point, Bitcoin's private keys are 256-bit - was Satoshi just wasting space?

edit (again): So, Bitcoin's private keys have 128 bits of security when the public key is known, e.g. you're reusing an address, and 160 bits when they're unspent - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1523431.msg15324846#msg15324846.

[savetherainforest]

War does not have stable prices.  That's all that I was saying.  

Good.

Have I said otherwise??... Chaos is needed! Volatility brings fortunes!

Holders are boring.    ... If you encourage a more aggressive accumulation behavior, we would fair off better. 

[JayJuanGee]

War does not have stable prices.  That's all that I was saying.  

Good.

I don't know whether the war phenomenon is good, because I am asserting it as a descriptive rather than a prescriptive statement, and i am also proclaiming that there is not really anything that any of us can do about it.. It just "is."

Have I said otherwise??...

Seems like you did, you waffler wannabe.  

Chaos is needed!

I am not sure if it is needed, but it just comes with the space... war and chaos go together, and you are better off if you prepare for what is likely to happen rather than going into it with rosey painted glasses.

Volatility brings fortunes!

It can bring fortunes if you neither go against it or fight it.  It can also bring some poverty or considerable poverty if you are on the wrong side of it or you try to play it, and you end up not playing it very well... so ultimately, again, best to recognize it for what it is and what it is likely to be... inevitable (or damned close to inevitable).

Holders are boring.  

HODLers still tend to profit from something like bitcoin, whether they are boring or not.. bitcoin is designed in such a way that HODLing seems to be a quite sound strategy.  Also, DCA, buying on dips and maybe even skimming some profits on BIG swings.. but safer strategies may well likely be proven to be much more boring.. (historically HODL and/or "boring" has proven to be pretty damned profitable, especialy in BTC).... in other words, basic approach would be largely boring and just accumulate by DCA, buy on dips and HODL.

... If you encourage a more aggressive accumulation behavior, we would fair off better.  

I don't know about that.  Bitcoin is already seeming to be quite an asymmetric bet, so with merely sound, prudent  and moderately aggressive strategies in regard to BTC (nothing too aggressive), normies can become rich as fuck.  So there really is no need or justification for very aggressive practices... I am just maybe proclaiming that a moderately aggressive strategy would merely be getting to some kind of investment amount that is meaningful.. rather than merely dabbling with less than 1% of wealth.. so something like 1% to 10% of quasi-investment capital would be sufficiently aggressive... and then maybe thereafter let it ride or just maintain with modest ongoing DCA.

In other words, more aggression takes a lot more skills and may end up screwing it up by attempting to be aggressive at all and then making matters worse... king daddy is not going to be very merciful to the aggressive one who goes beyond his/her skills, unless it is NOT too far beyond sticking with basic principles as described above (DCA, buy on dips, HODL).

[savetherainforest]

I don't know about that.  Bitcoin is already seeming to be quite an asymmetric bet, so with merely sound, prudent  and moderately aggressive strategies in regard to BTC (nothing too aggressive), normies can become rich as fuck.  So there really is no need or justification for very aggressive practices... I am just maybe proclaiming that a moderately aggressive strategy would merely be getting to some kind of investment amount that is meaningful.. rather than merely dabbling with less than 1% of wealth.. so something like 1% to 10% of quasi-investment capital would be sufficiently aggressive... and then maybe thereafter let it ride or just maintain with modest ongoing DCA.

In other words, more aggression takes a lot more skills and may end up screwing it up by attempting to be aggressive at all and then making matters worse... king daddy is not going to be very merciful to the aggressive one who goes beyond his/her skills, unless it is NOT too far beyond sticking with basic principles as described above (DCA, buy on dips, HODL).

When you are the one creating the chaos, you feel in control of the ups and downs. As for me as I do at least a 1% minimum net gain per day, sometimes when you need to panic when something unpredictable happens, you just short and take a 1% or less losses and you move on to the next session of trades. The problem is when your emotions get the better of you and you forget the long term wave that you need to ride with the rest of fish in the sea. But a key to trading well is to not make more then 1 trade usually after at least half a day from the dip. You just go play video games, watch some movies or tv shows, go on a date, cook something... or even sleep if u'r confident that no big moves will happen.


Edit: But when the volatility is high and mighty, you might be able to do a trade every few minutes. Just do the math on the numbers with what you are willing to lose or gain. Also... I don't recommend leveraged trading, get away from that sh!t, its just pure plain gambling. Stick with plain and boring trades... and you will get there!

[rdbase]

The officially self-designated Baron of Bitcoin?

Barstool sports ceo/president buys a whole lotta bitcoin from his neighbor the Winklevoss twins. Of course off their exchange.
https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1293993222868369408
They start speculating when Elon musk invests like he does but he's busy mining gold from asteroids.
https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente/status/1294051648533401600

They made him buy shit coin chainlink? https://youtu.be/oTcSnwKKaUY The bogdanoffs have been activated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y28Diszaoo4

Chainlink birth:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9rUrnk--VE

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know about that.  Bitcoin is already seeming to be quite an asymmetric bet, so with merely sound, prudent  and moderately aggressive strategies in regard to BTC (nothing too aggressive), normies can become rich as fuck.  So there really is no need or justification for very aggressive practices... I am just maybe proclaiming that a moderately aggressive strategy would merely be getting to some kind of investment amount that is meaningful.. rather than merely dabbling with less than 1% of wealth.. so something like 1% to 10% of quasi-investment capital would be sufficiently aggressive... and then maybe thereafter let it ride or just maintain with modest ongoing DCA.

In other words, more aggression takes a lot more skills and may end up screwing it up by attempting to be aggressive at all and then making matters worse... king daddy is not going to be very merciful to the aggressive one who goes beyond his/her skills, unless it is NOT too far beyond sticking with basic principles as described above (DCA, buy on dips, HODL).

When you are the one creating the chaos, you feel in control of the ups and downs.

Largely, I am trying to speak to the typical situations of normies, and there are not very many people who have enough capital to push market direction rather than merely reacting to it.

As for me as I do at least a 1% minimum net gain per day, sometimes when you need to panic when something unpredictable happens, you just short and take a 1% or less losses and you move on to the next session of trades.

Again.. normies probably should not be starting out with any kind of trading approach.. but merely DCA, buy on dips and HODL... Sure, if they have skills beyond normies (which again should be the exception rather than the rule), then of course, their approach might be more elaborate and more complicated, but I generally am NOT talking about those less than typical situations.

The problem is when your emotions get the better of you and you forget the long term wave that you need to ride with the rest of fish in the sea. But a key to trading well is to not make more then 1 trade usually after at least half a day from the dip.

I agree about attempting to establish systems that lessen any likelihood that emotions will get in the way.. yet as far as specific trading techniques, you seem to be getting into the weds and thus devolving into another topic that was quite a bit beyond what were some of the original points (and thus my responses were attempted to be tailored to the original points, which largely was regarding the extent to which BTC would continue to be volatile).

You just go play video games, watch some movies or tv shows, go on a date, cook something... or even sleep if u'r confident that no big moves will happen.

Sure.. if you set up your system to work like that, then sure.

Edit: But when the volatility is high and mighty, you might be able to do a trade every few minutes. Just do the math on the numbers with what you are willing to lose or gain. Also... I don't recommend leveraged trading, get away from that sh!t, its just pure plain gambling. Stick with plain and boring trades... and you will get there!

Sure some people trade smaller price ranges or larger ranges and then they might change their style when the BTC price is moving more or the mere movement of the BTC price might just cause their buy/sell orders to trigger more frequently, as you seem to be suggesting.  NOT everyone wants to get caught up in trading activities at all... that's for sure.

[Last of the V8s]

It is finished. Over and done. we knew it was coming but it's time. pack it all up and go home. don't forget to sweep under the chairs and switch off the lights. no more fun. no more degen gambling

https://blog.bitmex.com/announcing-the-bitmex-user-verification-programme/

mehlternatives include DarkMEX, bustabit, bybit stuff like that but eh


fin

[El duderino_]

A pyramid scheme is an investment scam based on a hierarchical setup of network marketing, in which higher layer participants profit at the expense of those lower down. Fiat currencies are pyramid schemes erected by central banks, who actively manipulate the price of gold.



https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1293517596185079812?s=21

Threw off a couple of interesting thoughts in my mind, duderino.  Have some merit.  BTC would have its own pyramid, but with fewer layers...  And KUDOS to our WO members above who have suggested trickery might be afoot in the BTC borrowing (scams?) should the borrowers default on returning the BTC...

BTC does count as money (both as SOV (Store of Value) and MOE (Medium of Exchange)) to at least some degree.  I have used BTC as a MOE to buy gold.  But I "stack" BTC in larger amounts as a SOV.

El Señor Duderino provided me a valuable insight today.  As have many of you.

So long as people remain sufficiently passive yet productive, fiat currency pyramid schemes can be built ever-higher, and continue to operate as a weapon of wealth extraction (time-theft) for their political perpetrators.



https://twitter.com/breedlove22/status/1293879977742499841?s=21

[Last of the V8s]

https://suredbits.com/introduction-to-schnorr-signatures/
was pretty hard for me, very math-y
https://suredbits.com/schnorr-security-part-1-schnorr-id-protocol/
hmm now i get it, well some of it
https://suredbits.com/schnorr-security-part-2-from-id-to-signature/
lots more lightbulbs

One of my goals in writing this blog post was to prepare people who would have trouble reading technical content such as the above (if they are interested). Another goal was to serve up a Schnorr security proof in the most accessible terms I could muster to reach a larger crowd than the above resources, though I will admit that there is no way to get around many of the complexities of such a precise argument.

Now that we have quite fully fleshed out “vanilla” Schnorr, the rest of this blog series will take 10 steps back out of the weeds and look (much) more casually at the countless variants on the Schnorr signature protocol that enable all of the cool things there are to be excited about with Schnorr’s integration into Bitcoin!

well worth a follow

[Last of the V8s]

morning Dr duderino_. how goes it? still locked down for reasons?

[El duderino_]

morning Dr duderino_. how goes it? still locked down for reasons?

Morning Mister 8

Naaaah locked up is better at this time... Finally living back at my place and everyone loves it here

[Last of the V8s]

morning Dr duderino_. how goes it? still locked down for reasons?

Morning Mister 8

Naaaah locked up is better at this time... Finally living back at my place and everyone loves it here

This is actually good news for Bitcoin.

[Globb0]

Just to give you a glimpse of a currently "crazy" world outside of orderly bitcoin, check out this "rant":
https://youtu.be/iHgDKdjNnpY?t=932
....

So I clicked on that you tube link and got served up an ad
of some random Vitalic interview embedded in a giant splash screen....

ETH HALVING 10,000 ETH GIVEAWAY!
SEND 5 ETH AND GET 10 ETH SENT BACK INSTANTLY!!
SEND 10 ETH.... etc etc etc....
You would think You Tube would be on top of this repeating scam-the-noob-suckers nonsense and nuke it immediately.
Apparently not.   SMH

Same a few days back. Money talks is all.

[Last of the V8s]

[-CryptoViking-]

This is ultimate lol

[machasm]

Lolled.
Here have my last merit.

[600watt]

kraken talks about a 50-200% price gain for bitcoin in the coming months.

In late July, Bitcoin broke out of a large, 2.5-year “pennant” formation, a move many believe could indicate the start of the next bull cycle. Further, price settled above $10,500, making a higher-high that added support to the upward trend.

Now that we are above $11,000, Bitcoin is trading in territory it has only been in for about 2.5% of its entire history. This may lead to higher volatility and higher prices as Bitcoin unlocks new levels of support and resistance and navigates uncharted waters.

On 12 separate occasions, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed between 15% – 30% before climbing, on average, to 140%. Considering that, and the fact that Bitcoin set a 21-month volatility low of 23% on July 24, volatility could exceed 100% as bitcoin rallies somewhere between +50% and +200% in the months ahead.

August is historically the third most volatile month on record with a 9-year average annualized volatility of 88%. If the pattern holds, we can expect volatility to continue trending higher next month.

is this a regular thing for exchanges to publish bullish statements? is the NYSE publishing press releases about the DOW likely going up? genuine question.


https://blog.kraken.com/post/5888/c-c-c-combo-breaker-kraken-releases-july-2020-bitcoin-volatility-report/

[Last of the V8s]

kraken talks about a 50-200% price gain for bitcoin in the coming months.

In late July, Bitcoin broke out of a large, 2.5-year “pennant” formation, a move many believe could indicate the start of the next bull cycle. Further, price settled above $10,500, making a higher-high that added support to the upward trend.

Now that we are above $11,000, Bitcoin is trading in territory it has only been in for about 2.5% of its entire history. This may lead to higher volatility and higher prices as Bitcoin unlocks new levels of support and resistance and navigates uncharted waters.

On 12 separate occasions, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed between 15% – 30% before climbing, on average, to 140%. Considering that, and the fact that Bitcoin set a 21-month volatility low of 23% on July 24, volatility could exceed 100% as bitcoin rallies somewhere between +50% and +200% in the months ahead.

August is historically the third most volatile month on record with a 9-year average annualized volatility of 88%. If the pattern holds, we can expect volatility to continue trending higher next month.

is this a regular thing for exchanges to publish bullish statements? is the NYSE publishing press releases about the DOW likely going up? genuine question.


https://blog.kraken.com/post/5888/c-c-c-combo-breaker-kraken-releases-july-2020-bitcoin-volatility-report/