Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

God, if I was not so lazy I would be setting up some west Texas wind/solar.  I wonder how much those turbines cost to deploy.

I looked at the numbers.
1 turbine of 2-3 mW is $2-4 mil.
Lets assume $3 mil.
It looks like it can probably 'feed' 1000 S11-say, another $3 mil.
maintenance-they say about 50K/year.
2 people (at the minimum) taking care of 1000 miners-another $100-150K/year.

Total investment for the first year $6.2 mil.
1000 S11 would make roughly 20BTC/mo or $0.47mil/mo (current prices) or 5.64mil/year if everything stays put (it doesn't).
So, about 13-14 mo to profitability if turbine is fully paid for, not a loan.
However, second year is almost pure profit  .
This business would need to very strategically buy new miners (on the cheap when possible).
I am not sure how reliable the wind is (it probably isn't)?

Why does the business have to get more miners? If it's pure profit on the second year, the smart thing to do is milk that profit until it's gone, all the while buying more corn.

1. replace broken (or malfunctioning), could be as much as 10%, only partially covered (180 days warranty).
2. slowly replace older models with newer models, maintaining a profitable, yet efficient mix. With wind turbine lifespan of 25 years, you've got to do it, otherwise you can provide the electricity to the grid, which would be less profitable, I assume.

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[HairyMaclairy]

We are back in the old channel that lifted us by our bootstraps from $3122.  It is a nice place to be.

[Biodom]

We are back in the old channel that lifted us by our bootstraps from $3122.  It is a nice place to be.

Thanks, very instructive, I appreciate it, but to me the chart vs the channel looks like one of Feynman diagrams of the possible particle paths while the channel is the probability-weighted integral of those paths.

In other words, the chart looks nothing like the channel, more like some "random walk" that started and ended in the "channel".

IMHO.

[cAPSLOCK]

To that end, I'm still not convinced to spend money to get one of them. I'm now leaning towards a Trezor, but I do fine with my own hardware. My "hardware wallets" are my freshly formatted refurbished air-gapped old ancient workstations / servers. Almost eternally quarantined.

Air-gapped is the way. Sign the TX on the offline machine, push the TX to the network on the online. Never seen the need for specialized hardware when generalized will do the job just fine.

Agreed.  99% of my Bitcoin are older than HD wallets.  I had everything safely set up in a notebook full of single address private keys, lol.

The are two things about hardware wallets that make them a viable and important product:

1.  They are the safest way for a non technical person to self custody.
2.  Convenience.  You are approaching cold storage security with hot wallet ease of use.

Nowadays I use a 2/3 multisig setup with seeds stored in multiple locations on the washer/bolt getups.

Well that and a couple hardware wallets.  

If it's true and accurate it looks like my address was not leaked from Ledger. Whew?

[smartcomet]

1/ More major US government action on crypto, this time from the White House working group on financial markets, with a slate of proposed policy around USD stablecoins.  We have a few things to say on the matter! 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1223

...

6/ This paves the way for stablecoins to become a major part of the payments and settlement infrastructure of the financial system.  With Centre expanding, expect many more FI's to be involved with USDC, and expect more Centre stablecoins.

...

10/ Most importantly, it is vital that the US government carefully considers how digital dollar stablecoins work over the internet and tap into the massive innovation of public chains, DeFi, smart contracts, etc.

in the digital era
stablecoins: native payment, smart contract
BTC : international payment,investment

and there are many bridges between stablecoins and BTC.

[cAPSLOCK]

1/ More major US government action on crypto, this time from the White House working group on financial markets, with a slate of proposed policy around USD stablecoins.  We have a few things to say on the matter! 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1223

...

6/ This paves the way for stablecoins to become a major part of the payments and settlement infrastructure of the financial system.  With Centre expanding, expect many more FI's to be involved with USDC, and expect more Centre stablecoins.

...

10/ Most importantly, it is vital that the US government carefully considers how digital dollar stablecoins work over the internet and tap into the massive innovation of public chains, DeFi, smart contracts, etc.

in the digital era
stablecoins: native payment, smart contract
BTC : international payment,investment

and there are many bridges between stablecoins and BTC.

That is a terrible haiku.  Keep trying!



Oh, and Jeremy Allaire has been so wrong about so much in the "crypto" space.  He has been trying to prop up the altcoin universe from the beginning.

[HairyMaclairy]

Actually i am loving this dump.  This is the BEST case scenario.  Ripple is the pin that slaughters the alts.  A few alt projects will survive.  ANY of them that look even a little like a security are gonna get killed.

Bitcoin basically holds.  Dominance goes wild.

Edit.. Wow.. the more I look at this the more beautiful it is.

Ripple another coin not backed by mining gear. Did well right?

true, but grin (backed by mining) did nothing positive so far-one of the shittiest of the shitcoins as far as ROI is concerned.

Grin fucked up their emissions schedule.  Just like Monero. Sad.

[Biodom]

1/ More major US government action on crypto, this time from the White House working group on financial markets, with a slate of proposed policy around USD stablecoins.  We have a few things to say on the matter! 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1223

...

6/ This paves the way for stablecoins to become a major part of the payments and settlement infrastructure of the financial system.  With Centre expanding, expect many more FI's to be involved with USDC, and expect more Centre stablecoins.

...

10/ Most importantly, it is vital that the US government carefully considers how digital dollar stablecoins work over the internet and tap into the massive innovation of public chains, DeFi, smart contracts, etc.

in the digital era
stablecoins: native payment, smart contract
BTC : international payment,investment

and there are many bridges between stablecoins and BTC.

That is a terrible haiku.  Keep trying!



Oh, and Jeremy Allaire has been so wrong about so much in the "crypto" space.  He has been trying to prop up the altcoin universe from the beginning.

Totally sideways, but every time I see Jeremy Allaire pic, it reminds me of a poor psych "Dr" in the first install of the "Total Recall" with A. Schwarzenegger.

[philipma1957]

It connects to the security narrative.  1 to 2 dimensional thinkers can't see why POW is so damn efficient and such a GOOD use of energy, that will actually transform the entire power industry in 50 years.  But there is ZERO chance for a distributed system, much less a decentralized one without it.

Care to explain your reasoning why a system like POS can't work? (genuinely interested)

Basically it is no different then a corporate bond or even a bank. Except in one way

It is centralized. Controlled by a handful of people.

Worse not much regulation to protect investors.

Here is how it is different than a corporate bond or a bank "No real collateral"

A bank has deposits and loans to back itself.

A business has inventory and income to back its bonds.

Ripple has no real backing of the coin.
Did they put 100 million USD in escrow with Lloyd's of London nope.

Most pos coins don't have any 'real' backing.

Most pow coins have real backing in the form of gear and power infrastructure.

I see ripple's failure as a plus for crypto coins. Certainly a plus for BTC.

[HairyMaclairy]

We are back in the old channel that lifted us by our bootstraps from $3122.  It is a nice place to be.

Thanks, very instructive, I appreciate it, but to me the chart vs the channel looks like one of Feynman diagrams of the possible particle paths while the channel is the probability-weighted integral of those paths.

In other words, the chart looks nothing like the channel, more like some "random walk" that started and ended in the "channel".

IMHO.

Give it a few more weeks and let’s see what happens

[explorer]

   Getting harder to see, but I think it's going sideways...

[BayAreaCoins]

Everyone at Christmas dinner knew how much a Bitcoin was! 

First-year that has ever happened to me.

[Hueristic]

Grin fucked up their emissions schedule.  Just like Monero. Sad.

Untrue but I'll not sully this thread with alt talk.

[JayJuanGee]

You get used to the good stuff too soon. After the inicial excitement, I now find it pretty boring being sideways for a while at $22-24k levels.

I see myself yawning in the future because we are sideways at around $100k.

i remember it being a big deal (to me anyway) when it hit $100 USD/coin. wild! unbelievable! (well to the uninformed, which i was still kinda at that point). it was sort of the validation for me that this pig could actually fly and just hang on tight no matter what.. moon or crater, i was in the game to stay.

and now? 20k+ ..   meh. wake me up at 30k+.. just so i can sneer at the price for a moment till i nap again until 40k+

Unfortunately (or not) I missed the entire way up to ~$1k top. I got my first coins at $1 something ($1.20-1.80?) and then I saw it in the news BTC was $1k+. That was a real shocker!     

How did those bags work out for you?

I can hardly imagine buying an asset that ends up 500x without me even realizing it.  But sure, shit happens.

[bitserve]

We are back in the old channel that lifted us by our bootstraps from $3122.  It is a nice place to be.

Thanks, very instructive, I appreciate it, but to me the chart vs the channel looks like one of Feynman diagrams of the possible particle paths while the channel is the probability-weighted integral of those paths.

In other words, the chart looks nothing like the channel, more like some "random walk" that started and ended in the "channel".

IMHO.

Agreed.

While it does show the trend we have followed since then in a linear way, it's no "channel". Nice representation of whatever it is though.

[JayJuanGee]

   Getting harder to see, but I think it's going sideways...

Bitcoin does not know sideways, especially in times like these...

Get a grip, explorer.

We are in the top of no man's land (how the hell could that end up in any kind of sideways?)... hardly seems plausible.. even though anything could end up playing out in bitcoinlandia, even if it should not have been considered as plausible.

TLDR: Sideways appears to be a kind of wishful-thinkening coming out of uie.

[explorer]

    This is getting serious, guys.  Bitcoin!  Do Something!

[HairyMaclairy]

While it does show the trend we have followed since then in a linear way, it's no "channel". Nice representation of whatever it is though.

The above chart was 1 week candles.  This is the same chart represented with 4 hour candles. It is a lot easier to see the pattern in this view, appreciate why you would say that only seeing the 1 week candles.  Personally, I do think it is a channel, but all TA is bullshit in any event.  YMMV.



As seen in TradingView 1 hour candles:

[bitserve]

While it does show the trend we have followed since then in a linear way, it's no "channel". Nice representation of whatever it is though.

The above chart was 1 week candles.  This is the same chart represented with 4 hour candles. It is a lot easier to see the pattern in this view, appreciate why you would say that only seeing the 1 week candles.  Personally, I do think it is a channel, but all TA is bullshit in any event.  YMMV.

Yeah, in that view looks as if it would be inside some sort of channel but the middle point (in the weekly view) was maybe a bit forced and it would have been more than repeatedly broken. I mean, it makes more sense as a trend than as a channel IMHO. Or maybe it is me that I prefer to see it as a trend than a channel.

[Karartma1]

1.  Alts have no value of their own

2.  The price of alts is a function of how much greed / fear is in the market.

3. Fear / greed is determined by Bitcoin price performance.  

4.  Alts are denominated in BTC.  

5.  When people are greedy they buy alts using BTC.

6.  When people are fearful they sell alts using BTC.

Important when shared, important today.