Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Ah! Yes,
There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options:

Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!

My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021.
You can check it at www.digitalik.net/BTC

nice info!
small comments:
1. Deribit is for non-US, for US only LedgerX
2. The gap between bid and ask is huge on ledgerX, I am surprised anything gets traded at all.
3. ledger X options are not very convenient: for later months they are in a HUGE gaps (like 25, 50, 75, 100K)
4. digitalik does not have 'www', so the link (for me) does not go there if used as posted. (EDIT: @fillippone already changed this)

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[bitserve]

After seeing all the diverse Bitcoin price predictions being made for 2021 ranging up to the several hundreds K's I have remembered about those futures markets that opened in 2017/18 like CME and Bakkt and most of us haven't even touched... And I am thinking? Is it worth exploring? Could we buy some options for our crazy expectations or use them to hedge some? How much is a $200K Bitcoin option for Q4 worth?

How do we check that? Is anyone here currently playing with that kind of futures?

I think to remember it was @fillippone who sometime in the past tried to explain some of the nuances about it... maybe even there is a thread about that subject?

I have the feeling that maybe the time to learn more about it has come...

Ah! Yes,
There is more than a thread to check what is the forward price implied by futures markets and options:

Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!

My suggestion, is also to check those forwards against the Stock to Flow price forecasted for end of 2021.
You can check it at digitalik.net/BTC

Edit: corrected digitalik link as biodom pointed out (as I typed it out of memory)

Now I remember seeing those threads in the past but at the time I thought it was too dense for something I was not really interested in. Now that I am, I can appreciate how good the info there is. I will just now start reading it all, thanks!!

[IntroVert]

Happy New 2021 to all of you crazies!!!

[JimboToronto]

Happy New 2021 to all of you crazies sanest people!!!

ftfy

And a happy 2021 to you too!!

[FullNode]

Nice threads fillippone
New year new rank,happy

[BobLawblaw]

[xhomerx10]

Very nice.  Thanks Bob and Rick!

[cAPSLOCK]

29297$ on Bisq

Merited entirely for "on bisq".

[JayJuanGee]

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

Your analysis is fine and your providing this kind of news is fine too, except for the "we are fucked part."

Overregulation is not necessarily a one way street, and there are going to be tradeoffs including potentially causing people to sell their bitcoin when they should be taking other measures.... so good luck to you guys who are overly pessimistic about these matters or believe that various administrative agencies are going to end up having the last word in regards to king daddy.

we're heading to reach $30K, personally I'm so much excited. we all hope there no dumps however, I have no clue. It might not happen at all. with so much momentum, BTC might keep climbing.

I expected a dump after hitting $20k, $25k and so on but it hasn't come yet. But there will be one for sure. This can't continue like this.

In other words, Dip incoming...

we are all fucked.   

Good luck everybody with how you approach your own stash....

in udder wurds..

corn = ded

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Happy New Year Wall Observer Brothers!
Another new year, another roller costar ride is awaiting.


Image source: Web


It's been a pleasure hanging up with you all. It never gets old.
Observing @ $28,960 🚀

[JayJuanGee]

I think Bitcoin could hit around $32,000 before we see any considerable correction from it.

Also keep in mind that Bitcoin has been kind of following SPX/USD chart and its trends since the pandemic so as long as US market is up you could expect Bitcoin to stay up, but then again SPX is also due for a correction for a while now, and soon enough we will see if Bitcoin keeps following SPX after its correction that will eventually happen or it will just go its own way.

Comparison between BTC and SPX chart after the pandemic(Jan 30th):

   

                                                     

I was about to send you a merit XZERO1 until I realized that your overall point was/is bullshit.


Dee corns don't give any shits about the stock market, and even if you might see or feel that you can see some short term correlation, you are likely delusional by attempting to extrapolate too much significance to such things that you believe that you are seeing...  

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1344981849634959361?s=21

A nice happy new year from our favorite .... though this saylor guy could be one of my favorites as well

There is a rule in these here parts:  you need to limit ur lil selfie to one favorite at a time, you fuck. #nohomo...


And happy new year to you, too.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Where I'm going to be then, I won't be able to post, so I sent 'em early... With brotherly love and kisses.

Someone's dream became true, not only true but it's now 3x true 🥳

What will change my life is when 1 BTC > $10000. Then I will be gaining hundreds of thousands of $ (€ in my case). At that point (if we ever get there -- and I hope and believe we will), I will sell some (but not all) of my 15 BTC, enjoy my earnings, and still be in the Bitcoin rocket on its way to the moon. I do believe and speculate that this will happen and I expect this to take no longer than 10 years.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1924731.0

Thanks man for that reminder. It's so cool to see your dreams come true and even multiplied.

Away from PC, so no #homo color BBCodes.

Once more, Happy New Year All!

You are welcome brother. It's good to see bitcoin changing our lives. Stay safe and have a cracking time.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/alistairmilne/status/1344732035546570753?s=21

Google search UP..... noobs are coming ?

That seems to be the case. I've mentioned it in other threads. Searches are up around the world but in countries with high inflation like Argentina or Turkey they are at an ATH. Add that to institutional investors' demand and see what 2021 will bring us.

This is more, earlier than expected.   Which leaves us with the question.  Is this a supercycle?  Or is it just early?

i believe we are in a 2013 kind of scenario:

price will rise until April, peaking somewhere between $80k and $240k.

then a dump during summer with a low in August around $40k to $80k.

2nd peak in Nov/Dez around $500k or even $1mil


uups... new ath...   congrats... observing 29600  

I find this to be a more than reasonable outline of a kind of possible happenings... but I am wondering somewhat about some of the seeming rigidity in your outline of dates, including confining such a scenario to this upcoming calendar year, when there could be such a situation that would drag out such a second peak significantly into 2022 (maybe even into the middle or late 2022 to throw off a lot of peeps who are too rigid in their thinkenings about dee corns).. perhaps if such a thing were to even be possible?.. [insert meme here]

[OutOfMemory]

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

Looks like the trump administration is quickly shooting out some inconvenient rules to protect their (clients) interests?
It would be good to ban lawmaking after an offcial winner has been announced in presidential votes, until the new president is put in place.
Mnuchin also seems to be some character of the lowest variety, imho.

EDIT: 1000 posts! Hooray 

[JimboToronto]

[serveria.com]

Happy New Year Bob & Rick! 

[Biodom]

On top of the wallet rule now only three days from final adoption, FinCEN just announced ANOTHER rule.
https://www.coindesk.com/fincen-foreign-crypto-exchange-disclosure-rule
With a bare three weeks before leaving office, it's impossible to have a public comment period that complies with the Administrative Procedure Act.
Treasury hasn't even provided a timeline yet.  
We only know that this new midnight rule will have an illegally short comment period, just like the last one.
The fact that the procedure is done illegaly won't prevent the rule from being enforced.  This is a standard administrative procedure whereby government agencies like Treasury write regulations into law without actually having to go to Congress.  Once these new regulations go into effect, overturning them involves a politically difficult congressional procedure; the incoming administration can't simply rescind rules that went on the books before they came to office.
In other words, we're fucked.
There's still time to comment on the wallet rule, though
https://beta.regulations.gov/commenton/FINCEN-2020-0020-0001

Meanwhile Mnuchin expects us crypto people to party instead of paying attention.

An annoyance, but foreign exchange rule is of less consequence for most and I doubt that it would be fought hard. We should push for 60-90 days comments, of course.

I kind of anticipated this from the beginning and thereby never opened (or at least funded) a mtgox, bitstamp or bitfinex account.
Basically, you would have to file a FBAR every time (yearly) you have cash at or over $10K in a foreign account. There are other important points, described below.
https://www.greenbacktaxservices.com/blog/determining-need-file-fbar-form-8938/
Interesting points (a difference between FBAR and form 8938-that one has much higher monetary limits):
Foreign stock, held outside of foreign account: FBAR-NO, form 8938-YES
foreign Mutual funds-yes for both FBAR and form 8938

[lightfoot]

My guess is Trump expected a taste from bitcoin, didn't get it, and thus we have to deal.

[Krubster]

Congratulations to all of our This Is Gentlemen Official Wall Observer Coloring In Competition competitors.  

The competition was extremely tough but one clear winner emerged chosen by the people.  Congratulations to Krubster!  Please feel free to tell all your friends, family and distant relations.  

Thank you, I'm honoured. My parents will be so proud of me when they will find out about this.

[Toxic2040]

noon charts


happy new year gentlemen

#dyor

1h



4h



D

#stronghands