Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

--------

At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

I don't buy it, but hey whatever... there is a chance for anything to happen..

My overall thinkenings continue to be that bitcoin no doesn't work like dat... and I am not even trying to be stubbornly caught up in the already existing models, but there still seems to be more evidence to the currently credible three existing models rather than proposing some new model that may or may not end up playing out.

[eddie13]

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

--------

At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

I don't buy it, but hey whatever... there is a chance for anything to happen..

My overall thinkenings continue to be that bitcoin no doesn't work like dat... and I am not even trying to be stubbornly caught up in the already existing models, but there still seems to be more evidence to the currently credible three existing models rather than proposing some new model that may or may not end up playing out.

Something is different now..

All these real money players getting into BTC..
Their might not be such a crash after this cycle as their have been before..
That may lead to the next cycle not having to come up from such a bottom..

Might be the end of “cycles” as we know them..

[eddie13]

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

[heslo]

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

--------

At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

I don't buy it, but hey whatever... there is a chance for anything to happen..

My overall thinkenings continue to be that bitcoin no doesn't work like dat... and I am not even trying to be stubbornly caught up in the already existing models, but there still seems to be more evidence to the currently credible three existing models rather than proposing some new model that may or may not end up playing out.

Something is different now..

All these real money players getting into BTC..
Their might not be such a crash after this cycle as their have been before..
That may lead to the next cycle not having to come up from such a bottom..

Might be the end of “cycles” as we know them..

Yeah I've been thinking about this a lot too recently. With everything going on in the world at the moment and with how crazy all the markets are I think we need to throw out and past trends regarding to BTC. That's not to say the same boom/bust cycle won't happen again but I definitely don't think it will be as severe. Far far far too much institutional money is being tied up now, these are not weak hands, people in it for a quick buck, this is a long haul type of deal. The repercussions are definitely going to be very interesting, especially if the money from these players keeps coming as has been suggested

[heslo]

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?

We've all been there (at least I have) Just count your blessings that even just by holding any BTC you're WAYYYY ahead of most people. I have a, modest, stash. I'd love more, but I'm definitely glad I have what I do

[JayJuanGee]

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

--------

At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

We'll just have to see what the top would be. If 100K, 80% down is a bit crazy.
I can see it happening fromm $300 with a 50% probability and with 65-70% probability from $500K.
The canonical numbers would be $300K, then $60K, but I agree that we MIGHT not dip 80% even from there, unless short term interest rates will go above 7-8%.

I have no problem with presentations that suggest that bottom corrections might become less, and it might be much more difficult to have a 60% to 70% correction, but one thing about momentum, is that sometimes it makes sense to continue going down, even if the down part that ends up being reached might not be sustainable more than a few weeks... sure a variety of scenarios that could both cause a correction and then to cause the price to stay down even though it might feel that the BTC price ends up being undervalued for a period of time..

[HairyMaclairy]

To provide some perspective - we have not (yet) broken the old models and forecasts

[Arriemoller]

@MMCrypto
1 #BITCOIN  IS NOW WORTH MORE THAN 1 KG GOLD!
https://twitter.com/mmcrypto/status/1363467875692994560?s=21

Not if you include the completely ridiculous premium on gold rn.

And good luck even finding a kilo of gold in stock, anywhere.

Another reason that Bitcoin will beat PMs: bitcoin is available to be purchased (and sold) anytime, anywhere, 24/7/365.

Here you go.

https://www.libertysilver.se/kopa/produkt/heraeus1000gram

[d_eddie]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

[cAPSLOCK]

What's wrong with mainstream media ? Are they falsely reporting these opinion about bitcoin  

I am a contrarian.  This is music to my ears.

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

[d_eddie]

For anyone considering selling covered calls, just keep in mind this could be a very expensive decision

There is an outside chance that Bitcoin could go to crazy number this year.  A $3.5k payment for giving away all the upside on a $200k sale in December 21 may not be a very good deal at all. It’s only a good deal if you are happy selling at $200k no matter what.  Because the price could be $500k at that time. In that scenario, you just lost $296.5k in value.  

Yes this is the risk, one has to remember you are doing this for the income and will forgo, if necessary capital gains. However, your example is not the best. Right now you could earn 3.5k on an option with strike price of 60k that expires in 2 weeks (5th March). Or, 3.2k an an option with strike price of 72k that expires in a little of 4 weeks (25th March). These 2 I mention also offer capital gains if the price expires over the strike price.

I would only sell one month options at most.

Options are still hard for me to grasp. As far as I understand the moment you try options, you are 'naked' buying and selling and that is very bad. How do you cover?

Don't worry for them. They won't let you go naked. The options we're talking about are covered - which means you have to post btc collateral before being able to write them.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

To provide some perspective - we have not (yet) broken the old models and forecasts

You’re a genius, mate. I genuinely mean that by the way. Love your work, I’ve told you before that I’ve listened to everything you’ve said for years.

[HairyMaclairy]

And I admire you for your bullheaded tenacity. 

No homo.

[lightfoot]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

[d_eddie]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

[cAPSLOCK]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.

[Elwar]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.

The decimal units are not part of the protocol. The decimal point can be used by consensus of miners letting those values go through. No hard fork required.

[Torque]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

[cAPSLOCK]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

I actually think bitcoin helps kill that narrative.

Who do we think is writing the news anyway?  It isn't democrats, republicans, brexiters, socialists, POC, fascists...  Umm well wait.  It IS pretty close to that alst one... but not quite.

[Biodom]

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.