Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles

The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back

The one where web3 supercedes web2

Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically

Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1363035740507017216

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At first it sounded bearish to me, until I unerstood what is meant. Since its creation Bitcoin went through several severe bear periods between the halvings. But what if the mass adoption has increased so much  that no such bear periods of 80%+ crashes from tha last ATH are possible? We see the first sign for that - unlike any other period of 12 months, there was only one 30% correction and two 20% corrections. What if this is a sign that such long periods of lack of interest from the big investors  are no longer possible? The implications on any sell strategy involving considerations of the previous cycles will be hugely negative. I mean if someone is selling with the hope of buying 80% cheaper, this may turn to be a total disaster with some 30-40% dips occurring here and there. Not only that, but this will make any unnecessary major sell from our stash to be a big mistake. This tweet predicts more than a supercycle, rather an infitite bull market. Well, this may look unrealistic now, but certainly the probability for that is not 0 as some may think based on previous experience. And sometimes the past experience may be misleading.

We'll just have to see what the top would be. If 100K, 80% down is a bit crazy.
I can see it happening fromm $300 with a 50% probability and with 65-70% probability from $500K.
The canonical numbers would be $300K, then $60K, but I agree that we MIGHT not dip 80% even from there, unless short term interest rates will go above 7-8%.

I have no problem with presentations that suggest that bottom corrections might become less, and it might be much more difficult to have a 60% to 70% correction, but one thing about momentum, is that sometimes it makes sense to continue going down, even if the down part that ends up being reached might not be sustainable more than a few weeks... sure a variety of scenarios that could both cause a correction and then to cause the price to stay down even though it might feel that the BTC price ends up being undervalued for a period of time..

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[HairyMaclairy]

To provide some perspective - we have not (yet) broken the old models and forecasts

[Arriemoller]

@MMCrypto
1 #BITCOIN  IS NOW WORTH MORE THAN 1 KG GOLD!
https://twitter.com/mmcrypto/status/1363467875692994560?s=21

Not if you include the completely ridiculous premium on gold rn.

And good luck even finding a kilo of gold in stock, anywhere.

Another reason that Bitcoin will beat PMs: bitcoin is available to be purchased (and sold) anytime, anywhere, 24/7/365.

Here you go.

https://www.libertysilver.se/kopa/produkt/heraeus1000gram

[d_eddie]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

[cAPSLOCK]

What's wrong with mainstream media ? Are they falsely reporting these opinion about bitcoin  

I am a contrarian.  This is music to my ears.

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

[d_eddie]

For anyone considering selling covered calls, just keep in mind this could be a very expensive decision

There is an outside chance that Bitcoin could go to crazy number this year.  A $3.5k payment for giving away all the upside on a $200k sale in December 21 may not be a very good deal at all. It’s only a good deal if you are happy selling at $200k no matter what.  Because the price could be $500k at that time. In that scenario, you just lost $296.5k in value.  

Yes this is the risk, one has to remember you are doing this for the income and will forgo, if necessary capital gains. However, your example is not the best. Right now you could earn 3.5k on an option with strike price of 60k that expires in 2 weeks (5th March). Or, 3.2k an an option with strike price of 72k that expires in a little of 4 weeks (25th March). These 2 I mention also offer capital gains if the price expires over the strike price.

I would only sell one month options at most.

Options are still hard for me to grasp. As far as I understand the moment you try options, you are 'naked' buying and selling and that is very bad. How do you cover?

Don't worry for them. They won't let you go naked. The options we're talking about are covered - which means you have to post btc collateral before being able to write them.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

To provide some perspective - we have not (yet) broken the old models and forecasts

You’re a genius, mate. I genuinely mean that by the way. Love your work, I’ve told you before that I’ve listened to everything you’ve said for years.

[HairyMaclairy]

And I admire you for your bullheaded tenacity. 

No homo.

[lightfoot]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

[d_eddie]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

[cAPSLOCK]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.

[Elwar]

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork?

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.

The decimal units are not part of the protocol. The decimal point can be used by consensus of miners letting those values go through. No hard fork required.

[Torque]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

[cAPSLOCK]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

I actually think bitcoin helps kill that narrative.

Who do we think is writing the news anyway?  It isn't democrats, republicans, brexiters, socialists, POC, fascists...  Umm well wait.  It IS pretty close to that alst one... but not quite.

[Biodom]

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.

[OutOfMemory]

I was on the verge of further selling a bit, but i have no idea how to spend the fiat, and i don't need money for finishing my house, yet.

Of course, if you have a specific expense in mind, then it does not hurt to shave a bit of BTC off on the way up, because it could become problematic, if the time comes to spend the money on the house, for example, and you have not adequately prepared for making sure that you have enough money because BTC prices dropped to below they had been when you could have shaved a bit off.

So sure, I am do not have details about what you have in mind, but if you specifically have such expense in 6-12 months, then you could consider shaving off 20% of the expense now.. and then just waiting in regards to what to do for the other 80%..  

In my humble bumble opinion, such 20% shaving would be better than 0% shaving and just waiting it out.. of course, if your house expense might get deferred for a couple of years without anyone getting upset with you because of your gambling addiction, then sure, maybe you could merely wait it out without taking any reasonable/prudent shaving actions..

Another thing is that we do have a decent number of models that suggest that our current cycle is likely to last at least through this calendar year, but sure we also have decent models that reasonably suggest that we could end up with a 2013 style double top rather than a single top, and sure either scenario is possible, including some scenarios that end up causing our current price location to be the top rather than later down the road.. so you are likely in a better place than me, when I was planning expenses in the beginning of 2018 that ended up coming due.. more or less at the end of 2018 at a relatively inconvenient time, as many of us likely realize after the fact and likely even realized during (or immediately before) such late 2018 happenings.

Thanks, i found a similar way to handle it.
The whole story, until today:
I had some money on the bank account, it was destined for house expansion costs. I would have spent it last fall, but the project got delayed in an early phase and finally got suspended over the winter. I started around december to put half of the money into BTC, bought some dips with the remaining money later on. Then i sold two thirds of my initial investing sum, about a third of the total BTC value at around $47k-$49k. Then i realized that i won't need all of it, kept half of the fiat on the exchange, of which 50% went into Bitcoin at around $52k again. I recovered almost all of the initial invested fiat, have some spare fiat for quick transfer on the exchange as well. The point is, i want to take as little BTC as possible from the total investment, to grow my stash further, because i want to support reaching my "1BTC for each family member" goal, too, even if this is just a tiny step on my way to reach it.
If the rise is continuing, and some more, small delays will appear on the house extension schedule, i can send half of the invested BTC to cold storage. If it doesn't go well with the price of Bitcoin, it will be less, but to compensate for the past growth (i mean not saving any extra BTC), the price would have to tank more than 50% of what it is currently. I doubt that, but you know, we know: We don't know  

EDIT:

Decided to spam the thread with a photo from my last holiday at the sea, when i had no kids back then.
It was early morning, i was sleeping on the big rocks on a beach under the sky. I had to capture these small ripples on the surface of the water, just before the sun started to heat up the rocks again. You can almost feel the cool, very light breeze, looking at this scene.

[HairyMaclairy]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   

[HairyMaclairy]

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.

Hmmm tempting if you frame it as buying for 1 - 2 cycles ahead.  I’m thinking of putting more solar on anyway. 

[El duderino_]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   

Insert >GIF<

So you’re saying that ....

You never get anything out of this bitcoin this for over all these years being involved ?

 

*you’re doing something wrong H’M’

But I have doubts that this is the situation

[cAPSLOCK]

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   

Same here.