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Question: Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? (credits to Jay)
$25K - 56 (33.7%)
$50K - 110 (66.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25378866 times)
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cAPSLOCK
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February 21, 2021, 08:23:03 PM



What's wrong with mainstream media ? Are they falsely reporting these opinion about bitcoin  Huh

I am a contrarian.  This is music to my ears.

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.
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February 21, 2021, 08:23:53 PM

For anyone considering selling covered calls, just keep in mind this could be a very expensive decision

There is an outside chance that Bitcoin could go to crazy number this year.  A $3.5k payment for giving away all the upside on a $200k sale in December 21 may not be a very good deal at all. It’s only a good deal if you are happy selling at $200k no matter what.  Because the price could be $500k at that time. In that scenario, you just lost $296.5k in value.  

Yes this is the risk, one has to remember you are doing this for the income and will forgo, if necessary capital gains. However, your example is not the best. Right now you could earn 3.5k on an option with strike price of 60k that expires in 2 weeks (5th March). Or, 3.2k an an option with strike price of 72k that expires in a little of 4 weeks (25th March). These 2 I mention also offer capital gains if the price expires over the strike price.

I would only sell one month options at most.

Options are still hard for me to grasp. As far as I understand the moment you try options, you are 'naked' buying and selling and that is very bad. How do you cover?

Don't worry for them. They won't let you go naked. The options we're talking about are covered - which means you have to post btc collateral before being able to write them.
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February 21, 2021, 08:28:39 PM

To provide some perspective - we have not (yet) broken the old models and forecasts



You’re a genius, mate. I genuinely mean that by the way. Love your work, I’ve told you before that I’ve listened to everything you’ve said for years.
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February 21, 2021, 08:31:14 PM

And I admire you for your bullheaded tenacity. 

No homo.
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February 21, 2021, 08:31:26 PM

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....
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February 21, 2021, 08:36:02 PM

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?
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February 21, 2021, 08:44:20 PM

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork? Cheesy

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.
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February 21, 2021, 08:48:03 PM

Soon 100,000,000 units won't be enough. When hard fork? Cheesy

Seriously, I think the time for a smaller minimum unit is approaching fast. Maybe a hard fork isn't technically needed, and two different "resolutions" can coexist for a while, but I hope that when 1 sat = 0.01$ happens, we're ready with further subdivisions.

Layers also solve this.

The decimal units are not part of the protocol. The decimal point can be used by consensus of miners letting those values go through. No hard fork required.
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February 21, 2021, 08:48:04 PM
Merited by Elwar (10), JimboToronto (1), jojo69 (1), HairyMaclairy (1)

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...

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February 21, 2021, 08:48:17 PM

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

I actually think bitcoin helps kill that narrative.

Who do we think is writing the news anyway?  It isn't democrats, republicans, brexiters, socialists, POC, fascists...  Umm well wait.  It IS pretty close to that alst one... but not quite.
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February 21, 2021, 08:57:38 PM

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.
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February 21, 2021, 09:07:27 PM
Last edit: February 21, 2021, 09:24:14 PM by OutOfMemory
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I was on the verge of further selling a bit, but i have no idea how to spend the fiat, and i don't need money for finishing my house, yet.

Of course, if you have a specific expense in mind, then it does not hurt to shave a bit of BTC off on the way up, because it could become problematic, if the time comes to spend the money on the house, for example, and you have not adequately prepared for making sure that you have enough money because BTC prices dropped to below they had been when you could have shaved a bit off.

So sure, I am do not have details about what you have in mind, but if you specifically have such expense in 6-12 months, then you could consider shaving off 20% of the expense now.. and then just waiting in regards to what to do for the other 80%..  

In my humble bumble opinion, such 20% shaving would be better than 0% shaving and just waiting it out.. of course, if your house expense might get deferred for a couple of years without anyone getting upset with you because of your gambling addiction, then sure, maybe you could merely wait it out without taking any reasonable/prudent shaving actions..

Another thing is that we do have a decent number of models that suggest that our current cycle is likely to last at least through this calendar year, but sure we also have decent models that reasonably suggest that we could end up with a 2013 style double top rather than a single top, and sure either scenario is possible, including some scenarios that end up causing our current price location to be the top rather than later down the road.. so you are likely in a better place than me, when I was planning expenses in the beginning of 2018 that ended up coming due.. more or less at the end of 2018 at a relatively inconvenient time, as many of us likely realize after the fact and likely even realized during (or immediately before) such late 2018 happenings.

Thanks, i found a similar way to handle it.
The whole story, until today:
I had some money on the bank account, it was destined for house expansion costs. I would have spent it last fall, but the project got delayed in an early phase and finally got suspended over the winter. I started around december to put half of the money into BTC, bought some dips with the remaining money later on. Then i sold two thirds of my initial investing sum, about a third of the total BTC value at around $47k-$49k. Then i realized that i won't need all of it, kept half of the fiat on the exchange, of which 50% went into Bitcoin at around $52k again. I recovered almost all of the initial invested fiat, have some spare fiat for quick transfer on the exchange as well. The point is, i want to take as little BTC as possible from the total investment, to grow my stash further, because i want to support reaching my "1BTC for each family member" goal, too, even if this is just a tiny step on my way to reach it.
If the rise is continuing, and some more, small delays will appear on the house extension schedule, i can send half of the invested BTC to cold storage. If it doesn't go well with the price of Bitcoin, it will be less, but to compensate for the past growth (i mean not saving any extra BTC), the price would have to tank more than 50% of what it is currently. I doubt that, but you know, we know: We don't know  Grin

EDIT:

Decided to spam the thread with a photo from my last holiday at the sea, when i had no kids back then.
It was early morning, i was sleeping on the big rocks on a beach under the sky. I had to capture these small ripples on the surface of the water, just before the sun started to heat up the rocks again. You can almost feel the cool, very light breeze, looking at this scene.

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February 21, 2021, 09:35:14 PM
Merited by Elwar (1)

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...




If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   
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February 21, 2021, 09:41:47 PM

I’m having a bit of a mental struggle..

How much should I be kicking myself in the ass for not accumulating more, VS how thankful am I for having accumulated what I have and for the most part held..

Thankful or regretful?


When the crypto world changed around 2017 I got lazy and stopped accumulating..
Since then, my methods of accumulation have become almost impossible..

I’m almost afraid to go back to it..
Do I still have it in me? Can I even do it legally? All that paperwork and accounting they require now?
I SHOULD but I just can’t bring myself to it..
Shit, I can barely bring myself to even move coin anymore..

You can always mine. It still produces meaningful amount of coins.
Requires a leap of faith, though, in purchasing the miner and either sticking it in the basement or arranging for hosting.
I am surprised that this method of DCAing is not much discussed here even though it is VASTLY more profitable as a DCA method during bull runs since your purchase price is rising only with difficulty rising, NOT with btc price rising. Difficulty rise was not exponential (16T to 22T) during the last 12mo.

Hmmm tempting if you frame it as buying for 1 - 2 cycles ahead.  I’m thinking of putting more solar on anyway. 
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February 21, 2021, 09:44:32 PM

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...




If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   

Insert >GIF<

So you’re saying that ....

You never get anything out of this bitcoin this for over all these years being involved ?

 Kiss Tongue

*you’re doing something wrong H’M’

But I have doubts that this is the situation
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February 21, 2021, 09:47:40 PM

Plus the CNN narrative and choir are not going to very warm towards bitcoin.  We might as well get used to hearing that it is white supremacy, toxic male, environmental disaster tulips.  I will eat my shoe if they present it a different way.

Well, how do we get ourselves out there as more accurate sources of information. I understand that in the "penny paper" dot.com information economy what sells is salacious crap as opposed to facts, but we should be trying for just a BIT more accuracy.

Maybe we need someone as an interesting spokesman. Maybe a flaming gay rich bitcoin dude building Rancho Apocalypse II to catch peoples' attention but then saying basic facts and truths about what bitcoin is, how it works, etc?

Or someone driving around the country buck naked in a top notch Lambo at 55mph. That would probably garner some attention, bring the click shit to CNN and allow a more rational discussion.

Hm....

... or a mature musician with properties in Mexico shopping for a private lake in his native Canada?

...or Elwar's story...




If I get nothing else out of this Bitcoin thing, I will be proud to have known Elwar, if only digitally.   

Same here. Smiley
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February 21, 2021, 09:48:51 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1), HairyMaclairy (1), BitcoinBunny (1)



This really says it all. Don‘t know who did this. But it‘s brilliant.

https://twitter.com/jilnik/status/1363420139077705732?s=21
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February 21, 2021, 09:51:25 PM

I actually think bitcoin helps kill that narrative.

Who do we think is writing the news anyway?  It isn't democrats, republicans, brexiters, socialists, POC, fascists...  Umm well wait.  It IS pretty close to that alst one... but not quite.

Honest answer: It's people who want to make money. Currently the best way to make money in news is to post or print salacious crap that people can use to reinforce their existing beliefs and beat other people over the head endlessly. Since there is very little observable consequences for news-as-crap*, people can happily buy it up with no regrets.

Hell, even Facebook's shit-based AI figured this out, and spend most of 2020 happily stoking a race/religious/political war just to increase "engagement" and ad impressions because it works.

So although I like the Canadian musician bit, that needs something bigger of a hook. Can you possibly develop a psychosis that would interest the "common man"? Maybe promote sex with aliens or something.

*Lack of consequences does not mean no deaths, a lot of people are dying of Coronavirus. However they usually can't post about it and wind up gurgling away as they drown in their own bodily fluids on a respirator. Since they're gone, no one notices. Likewise with endless stimmy checks the economic impact of erronious decisions is muted as well.
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February 21, 2021, 09:57:43 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

If you have at least double the btc you need to attain your objective, why not earn 4.5% on your btc with half, or even 1/10th?

Because I'd rather not wake up to find half my stash has been goxxed?
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February 21, 2021, 10:02:39 PM
Merited by JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

If you have at least double the btc you need to attain your objective, why not earn 4.5% on your btc with half, or even 1/10th?

Because I'd rather not wake up to find half my stash has been goxxed?

We seem to be getting a lot of tards in here lately, suggesting what a great idea it is to leave our coins on at best shady lending platforms that promise 4-5% interest annually on coins you leave with them.

I’d rather get punched in the crown jewels than let anybody else control my stash.
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