Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Happy Pi Day guys... today is a Pi π day - 3.14

Just read as of today we have calculated 31.4 trillion decimal places—31,415,926,535,897 of Pi to be exact. It was done by a Google employee (Emma Haruka) who set a world record for calculating the most digits of Pi. She and her team used 96 vCPUs with 1.4TB of RAM and spent 121.1 days.

So here’s thought what if all the Bitcoin mining rigs starts calculating the value of Pi just for 10 minutes? How much can we calculate? Keeping in mind (in early 2020) the computers on the bitcoin network were calculating close to 120 exahashes per second.

And for a reference “One terahash is a trillion hashes per second, one petahash is a quadrillion hashes per second, and one exahash is one quintillion hashes per second (a one followed by 18 zeros).”



Ref:
https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/compute/calculating-31-4-trillion-digits-of-archimedes-constant-on-google-cloud/

https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-power-does-the-bitcoin-network-use-391280

I am not sure whether I understand the answer in regards to the bitcoin network's calulations and pi.. in other words, how many decimal places of pi could the bitcoin network calculate in 10 minutes versus the 121.1 days that were used by the team of 96vCPUs of Emma Haruka?  Did I miss the answer?  Is there an answer?  Her team got 31.4 trillion decimal places, and another variation of the question would be how long would it take the bitcoin network to arrive at that number of decimal places of pi?  

Next bitcoin price milestone...  age*1000....

 That's gonna fall shortly for me, albeit, for most Wo Bros, that was long since broken months* ago.
....Except Jimbo.. and that will fall shortly too, no doubt, right after mine.
 (*or years ago in "crypto time"...and please don't bat-slap me jay, I couldn't come up with a better term....)

You are weak, weak, in terms of your lacking in abilities to choose words.

Did I mention weak?

.....

Well I don't see your lil selfie offering an alternative. Perhaps?...

Have you heard about a lil ting-i-lie called king daddy, honey badger, lillie fiend, dee corns, aka bitcoin?



that's what you been asking for, biatch?

#nohomo

[1714880165]

1714880165

[1714880165]

1714880165

[smartcomet]

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/1371137332171116552

[Richy_T]

But I'm ok with getting beaten over the head for making that observation.
So keep the bashing going... Have a sucky day already....

Huh. It was you that started the bashing but whatever.

As for sucky days, new ATH for Bitcoin, my son's birthday and I finally got around to adding an 8TB mirrored array to my server? Yeah, that sure bites... 

I may have to open a nice bottle of red to help get me through the rest of the day.

[savetherainforest]

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/1371137332171116552

The higher it gets, the more I want to hide in a shell and move to places where less and less people know me. Its getting terrible and I feel an emptiness inside of all the despair I see in the eyes of those that know things about me.    

[Richy_T]

It's like NotLambChop is back.

Haha. Where did you find that? When I went back through Lambie's history, most of the images were hosted on some platform that no longer exists.

It is not your fault, just as some are seeing ghosts now thanks to that hoax there are some people using the OK symbol with that intention, which is why I shared my techniques to keep making it and keep yourself safe or troll people if you want, I am sorry lets just forget about it, this has been a bad day for everyone as bitcoin is now barely above 60k.

Sadly, your technique may not even protect you. That poor hispanic guy got fired when he was just flexing his fingers (some speculate he may have been flicking boogers).

[nullius]

I am not sure whether I understand the answer in regards to the bitcoin network's calulations and pi.. in other words, how many decimal places of pi could the bitcoin network calculate in 10 minutes versus the 121.1 days that were used by the team of 96vCPUs of Emma Haruka?  Did I miss the answer?

Yes.

Is there an answer?

Yes.

Her team got 31.4 trillion decimal places, and another variation of the question would be how long would it take the bitcoin network to arrive at that number of decimal places of pi?

NaN.  The Bitcoin network cannot calculate the digits of π.  Not at all.  Not even one digit.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”.  Furthermore, as I mentioned briefly, the algorithms used to set these pi calculation records are I/O-limited, not CPU-limited.

Edit:  From shahzadafzal’s reference:

I was referring to Chudnovsky’s Formula when I mentioned I/O.  Look at the disk specs there.  What ASIC farm has that kind of fast persistent storage?  And look at the RAM!  LOL.

Edit again:  See also:  http://www.numberworld.org/y-cruncher/faq.html#why_desktops

Next question is, “Why not use this as an ASIC-resistant PoW algorithm?”

Answer:  How do you verify it?  PoW must be slow to calculate, and very fast to verify.  Bitcoin’s PoW makes it hard to produce a block.  Verifying that a block hash meets the PoW difficulty level takes only a double-SHA256, some bit-twiddling, and an integer comparison.  (Then, of course, you need to verify the rest of the block per all consensus rules, and build a Merkle tree of transactions in the block matching the block header’s Merkle root.)

[Richy_T]

The Bitcoin network cannot calculate the digits of π.[/url]  Not at all.  Not even one digit.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”.  Furthermore, as I mentioned briefly, the algorithms used to set these pi calculation records are I/O-limited, not CPU-limited.

You know, while I'm sure you're completely correct, it wouldn't surprise me if some clever bod found a way to exploit some characteristic of hashing to be able to calculate PI using some tricky methodology.

[DaRude]

The Bitcoin network cannot calculate the digits of π.[/url]  Not at all.  Not even one digit.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”.  Furthermore, as I mentioned briefly, the algorithms used to set these pi calculation records are I/O-limited, not CPU-limited.

You know, while I'm sure you're completely correct, it wouldn't surprise me if some clever bod found a way to exploit some characteristic of hashing to be able to calculate PI using some tricky methodology.

*ahem* *ahem* primecoin anyone, but that's my wetdream, for BTC to switch POW to something useful instead of SHA256, like sequencing genes SETI etc...

[DaRude]

It's like NotLambChop is back.

Ahh that one hurt the most, hitting $2xx was painful. Can someone update it to reflect current reality?

[JayJuanGee]

-multisnips-

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.

Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

Ahh leverage, good idea, as long as markets keep going up 10% every year. How many months would it take to completely loose everything once market starts moving against you? Get triple whammy lose premium, your collateral gets reduced, and you get slammed with a tax bill once you're liquidated. Leverage is no panacea, despite what YOLO generation might say.

Duly noted, hence don't borrow 70%, borrow 10-20%.
The main point is that selling the best asset in the history of earth for rapidly diminishing in buying power fiat is stupid, and I stand by that.

Maybe it makes a difference if you are quasi-desperate because you have not accumulated enough corns.. and so if you have a bitcoin collection that is already substantial, then it may not make a big impact to shave off some corns.


Let's look at some differences between various portfolio sizes in order to try to feel that there are material differences that can cause pretty BIG ass affects upon feelings that will be had depending on the size of the BTC holdings:

# of Corn        CornValue at $60k    price up $3,333 (5.3%) value up by   $ to shave off (3.5% of total profits, / .25% of total Corn value)

10                          $600k                                  $33k                                                             $1,200     

15                          $900k                                  $50k                                                             $1,750

50                          $3mil                                   $167k                                                            $5.83k   

150                        $9mil                                   $500k                                                            $17.5k     

300                        $18mil                                 $1mil                                                             $35k

600                        $36mil                                 $2mil                                                             $70k             

Can you actually notice that even though all of these projections are using similar percentages to shave off for the same price rise of $3,333 (5.3%), the more coins that a person has the less shits that s/he is likely to give about shaving off some value of his/her corns because his/her portfolio is already worth a whole fucking a lot that shaving off is not going to matter - relatively speaking... For example, the value of the 600BTC portfolio of the $36 million portfolio goes up $2million based on a $3,333 BTC price rise, and s/he shaves off $70k but in the whole scheme of things that shaving off of some value does not significantly decrease his/her corn or the overall value of his BTC portfolio in any kind of meaningful way.. the same could be said for the 150BTC and the 300BTC holdings, and probably less so for the 10BTC and 15BTC portfolios where there might be more worries about the overall size of the holdings and if there is enough coins in the portfolio, even though the same percentages are being shaved off for each of them.. but maybe the recommendation for the smaller portfolios would be to either NOT be selling any or to engage in more desperate behaviors, and the larger holdings have way the fuck more options. 

The middle option of 50 BTC might be a bit more torn about whether more coins are needed or whether various more risky strategies might be employed to preserve the corn balance.. and there is going to be variations with different people too in terms of how much they believe that they need to maintain their lifestyle with something like 50 corns and depending on how much they believe that they need, including if they believe that corn price is going up or if they are going to start attempting to live off of corns this cycle or wait one more cycle... and of course individualized factors such as: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak from time to time including whether to reallocate from time to time and/or trade.                             

[nullius]

The Bitcoin network cannot calculate the digits of π.[/url]  Not at all.  Not even one digit.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”.  Furthermore, as I mentioned briefly, the algorithms used to set these pi calculation records are I/O-limited, not CPU-limited.

You know, while I'm sure you're completely correct, it wouldn't surprise me if some clever bod found a way to exploit some characteristic of hashing to be able to calculate PI using some tricky methodology.

That would pretty much mean a total break of SHA-256.  The purpose of a cryptographically secure hash is to make the outputs computationally pseudorandom with respect to the inputs.  You imply some clever way to use a correlation between the inputs and outputs for other types of calculations.  Even MD5 (or even MD2) isn’t that broken.

Furthermore, a Bitcoin mining ASIC can’t even do SHA-256.  It does a particular part of a double-SHA256 calculation, on a very specifically structured piece of data which cannot have any other structure.  Any repurposing of an ASIC must be based on that exact format.

Per the bitcoin.SE quote in my prior post:

The inputs to the ASIC chips are a 32 byte midstate, the last 4 bytes of the merkle root, a 4 byte timestamp, and 4 byte "bits" (target/difficulty).

The word “midstate” means that the CPU in the machine running the ASIC does the first part of the SHA256 calculation.  Where are the first 28 bytes of the Merkle root?  Already hashed into the midstate, together with the block’s version number and the hash of the previous block.

Substantially all that the ASIC does is to complete the hash that was already started, hash the hash (for double SHA256 as specified by Satoshi and required by consensus), compare the result to the target, and, if it failed, increment the 4-byte nonce so that it can try again.

That is the innermost loop of an optimal implementation of the Bitcoin mining algorithm—the part that must be run most often.  It needs a CPU to feed it newly calculated parameters from grinding extraNonce in the coinbase tx, thus changing the Merkle root (also, potentially increasing the timestamp).  Fortunately, a CPU can keep up with this.  The CPU only needs to feed the ASIC new data after every 4,294,967,296 failed hashes; thus, the ASIC is doing almost all of the computational work, by many orders of magnitude.

Even a slow ASIC chip nowadays can run through the whole nonce space a number of times per second (and a pro-grade ASIC miner unit contains a bunch of these chips).  For comparison, each core of my very slow, Satoshi-era CPU would take almost an hour and a half to run through the whole nonce space.  My CPU could keep up with feeding an ASIC chip—easily so.

It is all done this way for reason of efficiency.  The ASIC can do that innermost loop orders of magnitude faster than any CPU or GPU, at much lower electrical power cost.  Everything except for the innermost loop is stripped out.  The innermost loop is directly programmed into the silicon; it cannot be changed.

An ASIC that did generalized SHA256 hashing would be more complex.  That means more circuitry, more transistors—more power use.  Mining is a hot competition with thin margins, at best.  Ask any miner if he wants an ASIC that is even a few percent less efficient, and see what answer you get!  It’s like asking a Formula One race-car driver if he wants an air conditioner, an in-dash CD changer, and some handy cup holders in his car.

In this rough analogy, your ordinary automobile with
the A.C., cup holders, passenger seats, etc. is like a CPU.

N.b., this means that miners are deeply invested in Bitcoin.  Their hardware is absolutely useless for anything except for the exact inner loop of the Bitcoin mining algorithm.

A hostile miner can try to attack Bitcoin with a contentious hardfork.  That has been tried by Jihan Wu, and others.  It does not seem to work out very well for them!

A hostile miner with an unlimited external budget could attack Bitcoin outright.  (E.g., a hypothetical government agency attack.)  But that means destroying the value of the hardware that is needed for the attack.

Miners and mining pool operators can censor transactions.  That is being done; and I consider it to be a significant threat.  Countermeasures include Stratum v2, Payjoin, and CoinSwap.  Miners should have a strong incentive to adopt Stratum v2, because it has technical improvements that miners need (e.g., protection against hashrate theft attacks).

But overall, a typical business-minded miner who acts only in his own selfish financial interest must protect Bitcoin.  If Bitcoin loses value, he loses financially—and if Bitcoin fails, then all of his fancy ASIC hardware is absolutely worthless garbage because it can’t be repurposed.  Miners are financially locked into Bitcoin.

Much though I myself wish that mining could still be done on commodity hardware, let’s not lose sight of the fact that ASICs also have a benefit to Bitcoin.  Glass half full/glass half empty, etc.

[Biodom]

Ahem, if someone has a current $36 mil btc position, why $70K shaving off would have any significance to their plans?
It wouldn't as it's basically ant's food amounts.

Listen to this, maybe finally you learn something useful:
https://youtu.be/wnQJ8ROyhrM?t=1545

Alas, you just don't get it after all those years, but hope springs eternal.

[Richy_T]

That would pretty much mean a total break of SHA-256.  The purpose of a cryptographically secure hash is to make the outputs computationally pseudorandom with respect to the inputs.  You imply some clever way to use a correlation between the inputs and outputs for other types of calculations.  Even MD5 (or even MD2) isn’t that broken.

There are ways to successively approximate PI using random numbers. Now, I'm not saying it *can* be done or even suggesting how (I'm smart but not that kind of smart). I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me. PI is one of those kind of fundamental constants.

[Wekkel]

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.

Just waiting for the day 

[JayJuanGee]

Here's another. Color me a Saylor fanboy. He gets it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkkXCoAVnX8

So I watched the whole hour plus video because it was a good talk...you're right he gets it.

I'm not criticising his view but I am certainly in disagreement on some of his points.

I think one of his major points is that all of the billionaires in the world will be moving their wealth to bitcoin due to its excellent ability as a store of wealth. I won't jump into the "store of value" vs "currency" debate as that has been fought tirelessly, I have always seen it as both but if people are ok with it being a store of value without the ability to use it as a currency then that's all good. I always assumed that it would not be seen as valuable without the ability to spend it easily. Hence my interest in the lightning network and making it easy to spend your wealth.

He also focuses on the fact that corporations, billionaires, etc. won't really care if they have to follow KYC/AML guidelines if they are placed on Bitcoin because they're already doing that for all of their assets and they don't really care. Adding that it may even make Bitcoin even more valuable as it gets more regulated.

Of course, that's where it rubs me the wrong way. Though I am open about my bitcoin spending and have nothing to hide, if you look at history there are several examples where being able to hide wealth and what you do with it from the government. I use the example of...what if the jews had bitcoin under Hitler's reign. They could have used OpenBazaar to order weapons, radios, their families that escaped could have sent them funds from overseas, etc. To blindly trust that governments having full knowledge of your finances should be ok over the next 100 years requires ignoring the past 100 years. Of course, the technology of Bitcoin is moving toward full privacy of transactions so that's a good thing. Get all of the money into Bitcoin then make it a privacy coin. Too late for the tyrants to put the genie back in the bottle at that point.

That's a decent explanation and summary of some of the stances that Saylor has been seeming to be taking, and good thing that no one man, company or set of rich peeps have any material and meaningful abilities to control bitcoin, so bitcoin can be used through AML KYC ways that are being adopted and employed and also there are ways to use it outside of those AML/KYC ways and as you know those outside of AML/KYC ways are still being developed and expanded within bitcoin and on second layers and good thing that we have various bitcoin developers and entrepreneurs working on these matter and sure if some shitcoin ends up being able to achieve some of those properties and functionality and ease of use that allows transacting outside of AML/KYC, then maybe it will end up getting absorbed and sucked into bitcoin or pegged to bitcoin in some kind of way as another possible way of transacting in bitcoin or attached to bitcoin.. like second layer solutions.

I'm the brokedummy because I started with no capital when everyone said it was too late to get rich. The most BTC I ever held was under 13

Hardly makes any sense why you should be participating in the forum, and maybe especially this thread and bragging about being broke and dumb.. and maybe moreso part of the problem would be if you have little to no aspirations to attempt to take measures to fix either of those situations by learning and maybe attempting to employ reasonable strategies in regards to your BTC holdings..

Hardly enough information to go by, but your forum registration is around the same time as mine.. a few months earlier, so at least you may have started attempting to learn about bitcoin in late 2013.. but if the most bitcoin that you ever held was 13, you either did something wrong or you are doing something wrong.. so do you want to change your stupid ass broke dummy status or not?

By the way, there have always been people in bitcoin saying it is too late to get rich with bitcoin, yet there have been people who have also gotten involved in bitcoin at various points in the last 7.5 years, and every single one of them would have become richer than he was by merely employing strategies of buy and attempting to accumulate bitcoin (I am not talking about selling or using shorts or margins, you dumb fuck but various forms of buying and holding BTC until reaching BTC accumulation goals whether that is 1 BTC, 13 BTC,  21 BTC or some other/higher amount).  So since we are again reaching all time highs in bitcoin, everyone who concentrated on buying and accumulating would be in profits as of today.. and there is no reason to believe that ongoing buying should not continue to be profitable with at least a four year strategy of hanging onto coins for at least 4 years after buying them, and surely longer such as 10 or more years might be better, depending on personal timeline circumstances but having a longer time horizon continues to seem to be amongst the best of approaches to BTC.

bitcoin down over $1000! is this the start of a bear market?

Quick search of post history & I can see the username matches (I’m not sure if you belong with elite gentlemen in the WO. The Altcoin sub called, it’s missing its brokedummy).

I’ve seen many of your kind come & go over the years. Trolling in this thread won’t make you happy after messing up the opportunity of the century by selling all your bitcoin too cheap & ending up as a sad, brokedummy.

Well I hope ya'll are proud of yourselves. down $5000 in 6 hours, of course one more tweet and you're all rekt again. we'll see tomorrow

I sold too early on the last bull run and never got to buy the coins back....

Hi guys I also need a loan of 500$ right now through paypal

Good find, LFC, good find. Observing those weak hands that sold their coins so low, coming over to WO to troll and play smart and know-it-all wise guys, is sad and amusing at the same time. That's why my Ignore List is, and always will be, empty. Guys like brokedummy, proudhon, r0ach, STRF, gembitz, are kind of like little clowns that cheer us up when corn is going sideways and things get a little boring.

I'd say, let them troll and enjoy the show. Just don't feed them, 'cause they're going to shit on you.

I mean I'm still hodling the second half of my stack after all these years. Yeah I sold early to make sure I was playing with house money and lost half my bitcoins that I'll never get back but I just posted that I sold puts and bought out of the money calls for this week. It's a bullish play. Why the hate?

Good for you, but frankly speaking was it really a half? Or perhaps 90%? Or otherwise why would you apply for a $500 loan while still having half of your stash?    

Because he is just making shit up.

[Dextrust_Defi]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

[HI-TEC99]

...I finally got around to adding an 8TB mirrored array to my server

You must know your stuff about hard drives. Are SSD hard drives less reliabe than spinning disk ones?

Someone here recommended avoiding SSDs for storing important stuff.

[d_eddie]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

The board periodically discloses the assets in btc coffer (Usd, Eur, UK Pound, Yen). The CEO signs the document, so it becomes official. At this point, anyone can check the value of btc against its coffer - although it's not a simple calculation: it requires lots of math and science.

[shahzadafzal]

Bitcoin mining hardware is restricted to a single use.  That is the meaning of “ASIC”:  Application-Specific Integrated Circuit.  A Bitcoin mining ASIC can only perform the inner-loop calculation for mining Bitcoin.  It cannot be repurposed for anything else.

The inputs to the ASIC chips are a 32 byte midstate, the last 4 bytes of the merkle root, a 4 byte timestamp, and 4 byte "bits" (target/difficulty).

Compare:  https://rya.nc/asic-cracking.html

Edit:  I forgot to add:  The algorithms usually used to calculate digits of pi are I/O limited, not CPU-limited.  That is one of the reasons why supercomputers are usually not used to calculate digits of pi.  You need big storage on fast SSDs.  Even a pi-digit-specific ASIC would not help you there.

Well to be honest I wasn't talking about "ASIC" but only about the computational power that's around GPUs. My ideas was not about calculating the value of Pi, but the fascination of how much computation power we are putting in, in calculating Bitcoin hashes. When I read that computers on Bitcoin network are calculating quintillion of hashes per second I thought for the sake of argument let suppose if we combine all GPUs just to calculate the value of Pi, we can calculate 10x60 quintillion digits of Pi that will be one followed by 20 zeros? 

Of course the limitation aside that brilliantly explained by Ryan Castellucci "Why Bitcoin Mining ASICs Won’t Crack Your Password".

But you know in the far far future when we are about to build Dyson spheres we better be having bigger of Pi value

I am not sure whether I understand the answer in regards to the bitcoin network's calulations and pi.. in other words, how many decimal places of pi could the bitcoin network calculate in 10 minutes versus the 121.1 days that were used by the team of 96vCPUs of Emma Haruka?  Did I miss the answer?  Is there an answer?  Her team got 31.4 trillion decimal places, and another variation of the question would be how long would it take the bitcoin network to arrive at that number of decimal places of pi? 

Yes exactly that was the question how many decimal places of pi could the bitcoin network calculate in 10 minutes? Just to imagine how much computation power we have in our Bitcoin network.

[Richy_T]

You must know your stuff about hard drives. Are SSD hard drives less reliabe than spinning disk ones?

Someone here recommended avoiding SSDs for storing important stuff.

SSDs are great. But... I have had spinning disk hard-drives which I have been able to recover all important data from as they began to fail where SSDs I've had that have failed just suddenly stop working completely.

Though the truth is that you should have a backup strategy and use it (RAID is not a backup). Two is one and one is none. All storage equipment is ephemeral.

My configuration of choice for workstations is an SSD of low-to-intermediate size for the OS and games that like fast disks and large spinning storage for a secondary. Laptops get a larger SSD because they *really* benefit from it and usually have fewer options. If your needs are simple, backup directly to an external drive is fine. If more complex, get some network storage as it's easier to manage backups from a single point than multiple devices.