Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[yefi]

Haha. Where did you find that? When I went back through Lambie's history, most of the images were hosted on some platform that no longer exists.

Took a copy years ago. Forgot about it until I stumbled on an old post from 2017 containing it.

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[JayJuanGee]

Ahem, if someone has a current $36 mil btc position, why $70K shaving off would have any significance to their plans?
It wouldn't as it's basically ant's food amounts.

Listen to this, maybe finally you learn something useful:
https://youtu.be/wnQJ8ROyhrM?t=1545

Alas, you just don't get it after all those years, but hope springs eternal.

We seem to be talking past each other.. so I provided my response and some examples of various portfolio sizes and even including a hypothetical sales amount so you could see it with your own beanie lil eyes in order to attempt to show you how such a selling of BTC system might play out or how it might apply to someone's circumstances who wants to follow such a system.. especially trying to differentiate someone who may have over invested as compared to someone who underinvested or someone who might be in the middle of that and trying to figure out if they have enough or not. 

There is nothing wrong with Saylor's views too, but I already had my system in place for a bit more than 6 years before Saylor even got into bitcoin or started studying into bitcoin, so I am not saying that I am smarter than Saylor because he is pretty damned smart for a later arriver to bitcoin, but my whole system and even some of my underlying presumptions already anticipation that guys like Saylor would be coming into bitcoin and going hog wild crazy many years after I had already established my overinvested stash.., and sure the craziness of such guys as Saylor seems to have caused my BTC investment (and even overinvestment) to play out way the fuck better than even amongst the better of scenarios...

In other words, I am already prepared for the number going up and even with my sales of BTC along the way, those sales (since around $250) had already anticipated having an overinvestment in BTC and continuing to shave off of it as the BTC price goes up... Sitting quite pretty... sitting quite pretty and have nearly as many bitcoins as I started with, but since I was way over invested, I did not need so many bitcoins anyhow to be quite overly contented with whatever my BTC investment is doing and where I am on a personal level, including psychologically.    Now , your situation might be different and you seem to be worried about me (or others who might follow my system that is working out so wonderfully), is that right?


By the way, even if BTC prices were to go shooting up to $12million, I am still going to have a large percentage of my BTC stash, and I doubt that the BTC price will shoot straight up to $12million but my system already accounts for that.. . and even if my wealth would NOT quite be 200x higher (that is 12million/$60k = 200x) than it is now, but maybe my wealth would only be a meager 180x higher than it is now because I ended up selling 10% of my stash on the way up.. and even if I ended up selling 20% of my stash on the way up, then my wealth would still be 160x higher than it is now.   Do I need more than that? 

You hardly make any sense, Biodom, with your hold onto all your bitcoins proclamation, even if some people may well want to follow such a hold onto all your bitcoin strategy, and that is their choice.. .. but not the recommendation that I make, especially if some folks might end up falling into a kind of over invested category.. and surely that is the case with some folks, including folks who are active in this thread, but maybe NOT you Biodom, since you seem to be quite worried and stressed that you do not have enough coins or you might not have enough coins.. not the case with this cat.. or perhaps some of the other cats, herein.

So for me, I am surely already in surplus BTC territory.. but hey, you don't give any shits about me , personally, because you have some kind of your own bullshit agenda that you believe applies to me and to other folks in this thread, and you don't give any shits about guys and gals attempting to personally talor their systems to their own circumstances, do you?

You would rather seek out one correct answer and suggest that everyone has to follow such correct system in order to be correct, since that is what you are doing in your not over invested status.. and perhaps your underinvested situation.. too bad that you did not buy more BTC at $10k and below $10k like some of us did because you were anticipating too much that the BTC price was going to go lower or to stay lower longer than it did, but instead the BTC price got away from you and you were not adequately, significantly and materially pee pared for UPpity.  Sucks to be you.. inadequately pee-pared, and some of us are overprepared for UP and more than willing and capable of shaving off some BTC on the way up because our stashes are BIG enough...if that is even fathomable to someone who does not have enough coins?  Poor lil tingilie.

So yeah, you are trying to suggest that you are supposedly correct with whatever the fuck that you are doing  in terms of still wanting to accumulate coins but failing/refusing to disclose some of your detailed strategy but such strategy seems to involve quite a bit of anticipating and hopening that the BTC prices do not go up more or that BTC prices go down more because you failed and refused to stack enough BTC when the BTC prices were lower so you are regretting that you are not pee pared enuff ur lil selfie.. so since you are so fucking nervous about the inadequacy of your BTC stash, you are thinking that everyone else (including your truly and other peeps who are active in this thread) need to feel as nervous as you about not having enough coins.. blah blah blah, and contrary to your presumptions and assertions a decent number of the peeps who have been active in this thread, including yours truly, did pee pare our lil selfies for UPpity, and even some of us truly did stack way the fuck too many coins too early... too bad that you were to preoccupied with down or flat rather than adequately and meaningfully preparing for the UP that ended up playing out.

Sure, I understand that bitcoin is so generous, so even whining and pointing the finger at others fucks like yourself who try to act like they are adequately prepared for UP, you are still rewarded because bitcoin is quite generous in terms of its UPpity, so even if you make mistakes by NOT getting enough bitcoin, bitcoin still rewards you with whatever inadequate supply that you had created for yourself.  So I am not even proclaiming that you do not have a decent amount of coins or that you are not profiting from your coins, but the fact of the matter remains that you did not adequately prepare for UP and you are regretting such lack of preparations even if a lot of your understanding of your lack of preparedness for up is in a kind of denial status.. because you deny stock to flow, but now you are realizing that BTC's price is following stock to flow but you anticipated that BTC prices would be at $10k-ish or less than $10k.. but too bad, they around 6x higher than you expected.. and you do not have enough coins that you can shave some off without getting all fucking worried about not having enough coins.  sucks to be you.   

[Richy_T]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

Just take a look at the book from any exchange. On the one side are people who think Bitcoin is overvalued and want to buy it for less than the current market price, on the other are people who think Bitcoin is undervalued and want to sell it for more than the market price.

So the real question is what is the value to *you*? No one else can answer that for you (though many will attempt to try).

[JayJuanGee]

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

People come to differing judgements about BTC's valuation including which metrics to use for attempting to assign present value and future value which may cause differing strategies in response to value assessment or maybe in regards to price momentum.

Some people win more than others in terms of how much they choose to allocate into bitcoin and if they attempt to play longer investment strategies or shorter investment trading, and that is assuming once they get started to even be able to buy bitcoin.  There are a decent number of people who fail/refuse to get started by having some kind of stake in bitcoin.

How do you, Destrust_Defi, evaluate bitcoin's value?  

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

Just take a look at the book from any exchange. On the one side are people who think Bitcoin is overvalued and want to buy it for less than the current market price, on the other are people who think Bitcoin is undervalued and want to sell it for more than the market price.

So the real question is what is the value to *you*? No one else can answer that for you (though many will attempt to try).

Also, what Richy_T said.

 

How do you determine that the Bitcoin price is not overvalued?

The board periodically discloses the assets in btc coffer (Usd, Eur, UK Pound, Yen). The CEO signs the document, so it becomes official. At this point, anyone can check the value of btc against its coffer - although it's not a simple calculation: it requires lots of math and science.

Actually, this might be the MOAR better of answers.

[nullius]

[...discussion of KYC and stuff...]

A general note on this subject, not aimed at anyone in particular:

The problem—one of the problems with that type of thinking is that it ruins Bitcoin’s fungibility, and thus ruins Bitcoin’s value.

I’m not making an idealistic argument here.  I am making an argument that hits you in the wallet, based on Bitcoin’s fundamentals.

Right now—as Bitcoin is designed—Bitcoin transactions are closer to being absolutely frictionless than any payment technology that ever came before.  Whether the transaction is B2B, B2C, or between private individuals, A gives B a Bitcoin address, B clicks a button, and—that’s it.  Although the process is scary for n00bs who don’t understand the system, it is actually the easiest payment technology ever invented from the dawn of history until 2008.  That is a large and indispensable part of Bitcoin’s value proposition.

When “KYC” gets its hooks deeper into Bitcoin, you wind up with coins being assigned different “risk ratings”.  It is happening already.  And if coins are assigned “risk”, then to receive coins, you are financially coerced to subscribe to the risk ratings system.  (Perhaps in the future also legally coerced—but let’s start with the part that hits you straight in the wallet.)  After all, you don’t want to receive risky coins:  If you receive “risky” coins from A, and then you try to pass them on to B, and B subscribes to the risk ratings system, then B may refuse to accept the coins as payment.

For the value of money, this is a disaster.  If different same-sized pieces of a currency have different values, then it is not a currency at all:  It is a chaotic mess of non-fungible tokens.  (This is what Mike Hearn wanted; and where is he now?)

For electronic payments, the legacy financial system is encrusted with ugly, cumbersome, unreliable, expensive layers of “fraud detection” systems.  These are make-work schemes for the fraud detectors, who charge a hefty fee to scrutinize your counterparties and reduce your “risk”.  Of course, the people who make money by preventing fraud in a fraud-prone system do not want for the fraud problem to be solved:  If fraud disappears, they lose their jobs!  And of course, the shiny new financial system that we know as Bitcoin is being beset by wannabe fraud-detectors who want to make work for themselves in a system that’s designed to be immune to fraud.

Receiving money in Bitcoin is supposed to be zero-risk.  Control of the private keys equals control of the funds.  Your keys, your coins, at least from the perspective of the payment network; and transactions are irrevocable.

The sanctimonious scum who assign “risk” ratings to UTXOs are actively destroying this property, and thus destroying Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.  (N.b. that this process is inextricably entwined with “KYC” policies.)  They are trying to turn Bitcoin into a new iteration of the legacy financial system, with all the problems and costs of the legacy financial system—and with the world’s most inefficient database, i.e. the Bitcoin blockchain.  That is the worst of all worlds!  It turns Bitcoin’s value into a net negative, lower than zero.

If you want for “number to go up”, then you should care.

[nullius]

That would pretty much mean a total break of SHA-256.  The purpose of a cryptographically secure hash is to make the outputs computationally pseudorandom with respect to the inputs.  You imply some clever way to use a correlation between the inputs and outputs for other types of calculations.  Even MD5 (or even MD2) isn’t that broken.

There are ways to successively approximate PI using random numbers. Now, I'm not saying it *can* be done or even suggesting how (I'm smart but not that kind of smart). I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me. PI is one of those kind of fundamental constants.

That’s true, and it’s an interesting observation; but how does hashing help?  Some handwavy scheme to produce pseudorandom numbers faster than your CPU can process them?  ;-)

Well to be honest I wasn't talking about "ASIC" but only about the computational power that's around GPUs.

GPUs can’t be used to mine Bitcoin.  It’s so infeasible that discussion of GPU mining is banned from the Bitcoin mining forum, per the stickied rules thread there:

3. Mining BITCOIN is done exclusively with dedicated BITCOIN mining hardware based on ASICs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Application-specific_integrated_circuit . You CAN NOT meaningfully mine bitcoin today with CPU, GPU or even FPGAs. Bitcoin difficulty adapts to match the amount of mining done on the network and has reached levels trillions of times too high to mine meaningfully with PCs, laptops, tablets, phones, webpages, javascript, GPUs, and even generalised SHA hardware. You will not find software in this section to help you mine bitcoin in this absurdly inefficient manner in this subforum. It would cost you thousands of dollars in electricity per year to earn only a few cents in bitcoin. Even if you combined all the computers in the world, including all known supercomputer, you would not even approach 0.1% of the bitcoin hashrate today. Any discussion outside of ASIC related mining, except in the interests of academia, will be moved to the altcoin mining section. There isn't any point attempting to mine bitcoin with CPU or GPU even in the interests of learning as it shares almost nothing with how bitcoin is mined with ASICs and will not teach you anything.

TL/DR Summary:
 - You CANNOT meaningfully mine bitcoin with your PC or laptop no matter how powerful it is.
 - You CANNOT meaningfully mine bitcoin with your tablet or phone no matter how powerful it is.
 - Mining apps for your phone or tablet that claim to mine bitcoin are almost certainly scams.
 - You CANNOT find software here to mine bitcoin with your PC by itself.
 - You MIGHT be able to do one of the above with altcoins, but such discussion goes into the altcoin mining section.
 - You CANNOT find or post software here to mine on other peoples' PC without their permission.

I have seen some colourable claims that high-end FPGAs can still meaningfully mine Bitcoin.  I do not know whether or not that is true; either way, that would be ridiculously expensive compared to buying an ASIC.

My ideas was not about calculating the value of Pi, but the fascination of how much computation power we are putting in, in calculating Bitcoin hashes.

It is indeed astounding.  And that is what secures the network against double-spends!  To do a so-called “51% attack”, you need to do more computation than everybody else combined (so that you are doing more than half the total, and everybody else is doing less than half).  (N.b. that even a 51% attacker can only double-spend, and censor transactions.  Even a 51% attacker cannot spend arbitrary coins owned by other people, or otherwise violate consensus rules.)

When I read that computers on Bitcoin network are calculating quintillion of hashes per second I thought for the sake of argument let suppose if we combine all GPUs just to calculate the value of Pi,

I should note, GPUs are not necessarily faster than CPUs.  They are faster than CPUs for very specific types of operations:  Roughly speaking, tight loops that can be run in parallel.  The core speed of a typical GPU is actually slower than that of a typical high-end CPU!  But GPUs do a whole bunch of the same thing at once more slowly, instead of doing one thing at a time more quickly.  (That’s the most nontechnical way that I can explain it.)

I am not very much familiar with pi algorithms.  I don’t know how well they parallelize.  I do know that they typically require huge amounts of fast storage, as I have repeatedly mentioned.  If the algorithm can’t be parallelized, then a CPU will be faster than a GPU.  If it’s I/O bound, then the question is irrelevant because your processor wastes time waiting for your storage media.  Same as for memory bandwidth (another big issue in high-performance computing).

GPUs beat CPUs at Bitcoin mining because Bitcoin mining is what’s called “embarrassingly parallel”:  The algorithm is so easy to parallelize that it’s almost as if it was designed for that.  Games use GPUs because many different graphics rendering algorithms (especially 3D) are embarrassingly parallel.  AI also does a huge amount of parallel stuff.  Anything single-threaded will run much faster on a CPU.  That is essentially why we have CPUs, and don’t just redesign GPUs to run all of our programs.  Most types of general-purpose computing run best on a CPU; a few types of computing run much, much better on a GPU.  Different tools for different jobs.

we can calculate 10x60 quintillion digits of Pi that will be one followed by 20 zeros?

Not sure what you mean.  I think that your terminology is off.

Anyway, however many digits you mean:  How do you intend to store all of these digits?  Really, really biiiiig disks?

[Biodom]

Ahem, if someone has a current $36 mil btc position, why $70K shaving off would have any significance to their plans?
It wouldn't as it's basically ant's food amounts.

Listen to this, maybe finally you learn something useful:
https://youtu.be/wnQJ8ROyhrM?t=1545

Alas, you just don't get it after all those years, but hope springs eternal.

<snipped>
So yeah, you are trying to suggest that you are supposedly correct with whatever the fuck that you are doing  in terms of still wanting to accumulate coins but failing/refusing to disclose some of your detailed strategy but such strategy seems to involve quite a bit of anticipating and hopening that the BTC prices do not go up more or that BTC prices go down more because you failed and refused to stack enough BTC when the BTC prices were lower so you are regretting that you are not pee pared enuff ur lil selfie.. so since you are so fucking nervous about the inadequacy of your BTC stash, you are thinking that everyone else (including your truly and other peeps who are active in this thread) need to feel as nervous as you about not having enough coins.. blah blah blah, and contrary to your presumptions and assertions a decent number of the peeps who have been active in this thread, including yours truly, did pee pare our lil selfies for UPpity, and even some of us truly did stack way the fuck too many coins too early... too bad that you were to preoccupied with down or flat rather than adequately and meaningfully preparing for the UP that ended up playing out.

Sure, I understand that bitcoin is so generous, so even whining and pointing the finger at others fucks like yourself who try to act like they are adequately prepared for UP, you are still rewarded because bitcoin is quite generous in terms of its UPpity, so even if you make mistakes by NOT getting enough bitcoin, bitcoin still rewards you with whatever inadequate supply that you had created for yourself.  So I am not even proclaiming that you do not have a decent amount of coins or that you are not profiting from your coins, but the fact of the matter remains that you did not adequately prepare for UP and you are regretting such lack of preparations even if a lot of your understanding of your lack of preparedness for up is in a kind of denial status.. because you deny stock to flow, but now you are realizing that BTC's price is following stock to flow but you anticipated that BTC prices would be at $10k-ish or less than $10k.. but too bad, they around 6x higher than you expected.. and you do not have enough coins that you can shave some off without getting all fucking worried about not having enough coins.  sucks to be you.  

Why do you think that you know anything about my situation?
It all a bunch of baby-talk gobbledygook.
You try to read too much into people and it is misfiring 100%, at least in my case.

[nanobtc]

JJG, please stop.
Speaking that, baby talk. Now.
Many still like you.

But if you still rage
At peeps that you don't like,  then
One more, SIM attack?

Tell us what you said,
Tell us where you leaked info.
How much did you lose?

If I, searched for me?
I mostly see, bitcointalk.
Maybe change your name.

[milkshock100]

We appear to be headed below the previous ATH, which is a new occurrence in this bull run

[Arriemoller]

Yeah, price really going down yo!

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1371237471296585731?s=21

Game theory 101: the first central bank to print fiat to buy #bitcoin for itself will win.

Just waiting for the day 

And the next tweet:

There won’t be enough bitcoin though.

[...]

But you know in the far far future when we are about to build Dyson spheres we better be having bigger of Pi value

[...]

I remember I read somewhere that Pi to an accuracy of only 5 decimal places is sufficient for practical orbital calculations up to the scale of our solar system. Given that, I'd risk a guess that the approximation of Pi that I get using Windows 10 calculator (3.1415926535897932384626433832795) should be sufficient for Dyson Sphere calculations. But I'm not a physicist.

[...]

Though the truth is that you should have a backup strategy and use it (RAID is not a backup). Two is one and one is none. All storage equipment is ephemeral.

[...]

Anyone who has ever lost data due to a failed storage device would attest to that. I've set up my main PC to take daily backups to a device in a different physical location. Funny thing is that, since I started doing this, I haven't had a single device failure... Murphy's Law?

[AlcoHoDL]

Does a pump smell?

Because I smell a pump.

Could be COVID-19 though...

Thanks for the merit, serveria.com, but my above post didn't age well.

No worries, next week things will be totally different, as we all know...

[BitcoinBunny]

Does a pump smell?

Because I smell a pump.

Could be COVID-19 though...

Thanks for the merit, serveria.com, but my above post didn't age well.

No worries, next week things will be totally different, as we all know...

[NeuroticFish]

but my above post didn't age well.

Don't worry, the pump will come. The brrrr of the money machine is pretty loud and I don't think that the bears want to lose money, so they'll have to take a break pretty soon.


PS. I also thought that this Monday will start with a pump, but let's not forget that in America is not morning yet 

[nullius]

You folks are scaring me.

* nullius checks his ticker.

1 BTC = 1 BTC.  Ah, what a relief.

(The dollar got a bump up to 1720 sats; but the bubble can’t hold.  Yawn.)

[OutOfMemory]

but my above post didn't age well.

Don't worry, the pump will come. The brrrr of the money machine is pretty loud and I don't think that the bears want to lose money, so they'll have to take a break pretty soon.


PS. I also thought that this Monday will start with a pump, but let's not forget that in America is not morning yet  

It may be just me, but i think the weekly dump at the start of the week in european timezones became quite a regular occurrence.
(EDIT: especially after pumpy weekends)
Could be related.

EDIT: I had a funny lil talk yesterday, with a guy that started saving (fonds) for bulding a home two years ago, when i asked him to look into bitcoin.
Back then, he said: "Bitcoin is over, $20k was the top of the bubble..." and of course he brought the popular "too late to invest in BTC" argument.
So i asked him yesterday if he bought.
He replkied: "You know, i am doing this fonds savings stuff and i'm satisfied with the 19% i get out of it per year."
And then, what was the jawdropper of the year for me: "I heard Bitcoin did well too, afaik it shows about the same performance". 
I didn't know what to say. Things like "you know, you could have financed several houses until date with the help of Bitcoin AND set the tracks for early retirement", but i didn't want to blame a (humble and friendly) nocoiner. I can't imagine the pain if he decided to look at the charts later.

[somac.]

Dump

[milkshock100]

Some very aggressive dumping going on here

[somac.]

Some very aggressive dumping going on here

Just in time for all those stimulus checks to be sent to exchanges.

[OutOfMemory]

Some very aggressive dumping going on here

Calm down, we're at support now. The massive green weekend candle was crying for a dip like this. Some people don't get their greedy mouths full enough of worthless fiat (or shitcoins). Honey badger moving on.

#BTFD

I'd do like this: Buy the dip with half of what you want to put in, wait for a second one to spend the rest.
#nofinancialadvice