Because some of us are still used to 2017 pump levels. I made that mistake, too.
But JJG got me straight again
What are "we" saying now then?
Are we in like mid-2017 ish price levels, where we might have a decently large pullback before continuing up in a kind of blow-off top?
Or might we end up in more of a kind of 2013 double top performance where we might be somewhere in the first price bubble (whether it has peaked or not might be another question), and then our pullback would be longer than the one(s) that happened after August 2017.
I keep getting the sense that the top of this particular bubble could end up dragging into 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of 2022.. but surely there is a whole hell of a time between now and then, so it is difficult to suggest how this bubble could get there - so maybe in the end, those folks who have been more reliant on the four year fractal for providing their guidance end up being correct and we just get another cycle that ends up playing itself out in the last quarter of 2021.. I still don't know how that happens either and could reasonably result in tops that range anywhere in the $150k territory to even up to $1.5 million.. and yeah no one finds this helpful to have such a broad range and the higher end of the range does come off as a bit over-the-top in terms of probabilities, especially to be able to reach it by the end of the year (which then causes me to consider that if the top ends up being even close to that $1.5million high for this cycle, then it just seems more reasonable that the cycle could take a wee bit longer to play out).
Surely, difficult to speak with any kind of confidence without coming off as a wee bit of a kook.. but at the same time, I have hardly any sense of financial expectations that any of the UPpity BTC price performances need to play out to make me feel MOAR better financially.. even though psychologically there could be some good feelings in regards to pointing at the no coiners who had continued to fail/refuse to take any kinds of meaningful actions to acquire some corns in case they catch on.. and BTC prices going up to the upper end of the range - even $500k to $1.5k would surely be quite validating (just in case some of us don't already feel validated enough.. .I was even feeling pretty validated in the $10k to $20k range.. so, there is that angle, too)
Alright, but "we" learned that BTC historic chart moves/prices can't simply be mapped onto the future.
While a $1k dump/pump thrilled the shit out of me in 2017, it's just a "meh" occurrence nowadays, but relatively speaking, a -$1k move in Q1 of 2017 would be like about a -$5k move in the todays. If expressed in percent, the same price movements would "feel" bigger in absolute values,
Sure, the use of percentages are better approximations of what is reasonable or possible than using absolute numbers - that's for sure. But at the same time, we also need to appreciate that absolute numbers have meaning too, in the sense that it takes more capital to move the price by the same percentage - while at the same time, it does seem that we have sufficient quantities of new players and new capital as well as seemingly other kinds of behaviors of removing bitcoins from the market that do seem to be contributing to similar kinds of dynamics as we had earlier in terms of percentage and maybe even more bullish than earlier because we seem to have been ongoingly (or at least mostly) ahead of the curve in this particular cycle.
maybe you remember our little discussion about this, some weeks or months ago.
Off the top of my head, I am NOT being struck by a memory of any specifics of our earlier conversation in the direction to which you refer
Even relatively spoken, $500k is plausible, because it would be under 900% move up from current price, which we "know" BTC does like to do, post halvening.
I doubt that it is very healthy to get locked into exact percentage moves even though I have also been suggesting even $150k to $1.5 million to be all reasonable possible ranges, and even we cannot count upon the lowest of the range, even while some perfect storm factors do seem to be setting us up to make those kinds of lower numbers to be relatively easily reached.
That is what we used to know. With the s-curve hypothesis, the nearing liquidity crisis and big institutional money flowing in for the long haul, it is clearly possible that there will be no -80% two year lasting bear market in the next years.
I agree that it is possible that there will not be a 80% or so dip, but I also believe it is a bit of a long shot and therefore a bit of a fantasy to be putting any kind of hope or expectation upon such a theory, even though it could happen.
To me, it seems that the underpinnings of human behavior, including the pump bullshit and the inability to control oneself in free markets is likely to once again lead to irrational exuberance that inevitably causes BTC to become way too overpriced which inevitably causes the correction to end up being way more than it should be.
Yeah sure we all have fantasies of stability and living in love and peace and all that bullshit, but bitcoin no work like dat... and I am not even saying that it will not happen for sure, but the odds are stacked quite against such a scenario... the way that you are describing it.
Actually, if you consider the matter, the 2018, 2019, 2020 correction and recovery was way better than the 2014, 2015 and 2016 correction and recovery... so I am not really opposed to some of the extremes getting a bit more smoothed out, but still does not give a high probability that extremes are not going to happen or that we should not be prepared both psychologically and financially for a variety of scenarios, including more likely scenarios and less likely scenarios.
As the time goes on, your mappings of a peak in Q1/2 2022 could even turn into a plateau, followed by further plateaus, gradually decreasing by height and increasing in duration, what would result in said s-curve.
Sure.. that does not sound like a bad tentative idea of what could or might happen.
I like the idea, and i would be happy to observe this, and it's not only unrealistic to happen, because we didn't have it yet. Honey badger will surprise (most of) us, and hopefully not in proudhon's favour.
Sure.. again prepare for a lot of possible scenarios including the pretty damned unlikely ones such as proudhon's nonsense.
The end of cycles as we know them, followed by "steps".
Sounds a bit pie in the sky the way that you are saying it.. .. but hey.. as long as you are not ONLY locked into your dominant theory or however we should be framing the matter.
I realized i have to look back to 2017 like early adopters looked back at 2013 in 2017, but there's still no right way to look forward.
Fair enough.. but even stock to flow allows for a quite a bit of deviance from the projected line .. remember he used the analogy of a dog and a drunk man walking a path or at least tethered to the path and so they might never get too far from the path.. or tethered to a leash or whatever.. so even though so many peeps get really caught upon how far they might be from the path, there could be periods of considerable deviance from the path that cause some folks to prematurely assert that the model is not valid blah blah blah but the price performance is within standard deviation (or tolerance) and we might be too caught up in the moment to be able to see what is happening while at the same time historical performance does shed some light upon not only what is possible and probable but what is reasonably within the model or starting to seem as if the happening might be breaking the model.. or not.
EDIT: Just checked the price ($56.6xx) and like that i'm "in the money" while i bought a bit too high today. I could also have waited for that second dip, what seems quite a regular thing following significant dumps, lately. IDC. I got more sats, that's all that counts.
sure get some more sats.. but better not to run out of fiat to buy more sats.. especially when we are ONLY within a dump for ants, and surely it does not seem to be a good thing to not be prepared to pick up a few sats if the price dips 30%, 40%, 50% or more.. (or should I say "when"?)
May i quote nullly:
1 BTC = 1 BTC
or is it
1 BTC == 1 BTC
?
That is a vague and amorphous expression, and sure I agree with the concept of planning ahead in terms of stacking sats, but seems a bit crazy to completely discount fiat. .at least at this time, even if you might be planning ahead with your sats.
Many of us still have bills in fiat.. if you want to categorize hookers, lambos and blow bills?
Poll
