Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[uninterestedparty33]

I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless

I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been.

Congratulations to all of you.

This could be an interesting poll -- who of us has retired thanks to bitcoin?

It's not my time......yet! too small of a fish.

Don't want to get into any of your specifics or your OPsec, but $50 per week for 7 years would have put relatively "small fish(es)" into a decent place... - nearly 22 bitcoin and a value of nearly $1.3 million - with "ONLY" about a $18.5k investment spread over 7 years.

There could have been a problem with anyone to attempt to be consistent in such investing into BTC over the years and even having some sense of frontloading the investment stake could have caused the BTC accumulation levels to become MOAR higher than those listed in the above linkening... and another thing would have been NOT getting shaken from coins at various points along the way - or temptations to sell some of dee lil fiends to try to accumulate more coins and take those selling actions at the wrong time or failing to buy at the right time (getting too greedy or to smart).

Another thing, as we have been discussing is trying to figure out how much is enough coins based on a variety of factors including ongoing volatility and expected volatility - and maybe another doubling or tripling of value could help... which does seem reasonably reachable within this cycle (odds of such may be approaching 30% or greater?  I know some peeps are putting odds of another 2x or 3x or even 5-20x this cycle at greater probabilities than I am assigning, but hey, I really hate counting any chickens before they are hatched - even though I am NOT at all in any kind of disagreement about either the asymmetric nature of the bitcoin bet or that the odds for having "great" upside performance in bitcoin seems to be way higher than any other asset that I can imagine investing into at this time).

I can't be consistent about brushing my teeth, let alone investing $50 per week or whatever over 7 years.

[philipma1957]

I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless

I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been.

Congratulations to all of you.

This could be an interesting poll -- who of us has retired thanks to bitcoin?

It's not my time......yet! too small of a fish.

Don't want to get into any of your specifics or your OPsec, but $50 per week for 7 years would have put relatively "small fish(es)" into a decent place... - nearly 22 bitcoin and a value of nearly $1.3 million - with "ONLY" about a $18.5k investment spread over 7 years.

There could have been a problem with anyone to attempt to be consistent in such investing into BTC over the years and even having some sense of frontloading the investment stake could have caused the BTC accumulation levels to become MOAR higher than those listed in the above linkening... and another thing would have been NOT getting shaken from coins at various points along the way - or temptations to sell some of dee lil fiends to try to accumulate more coins and take those selling actions at the wrong time or failing to buy at the right time (getting too greedy or to smart).

Another thing, as we have been discussing is trying to figure out how much is enough coins based on a variety of factors including ongoing volatility and expected volatility - and maybe another doubling or tripling of value could help... which does seem reasonably reachable within this cycle (odds of such may be approaching 30% or greater?  I know some peeps are putting odds of another 2x or 3x or even 5-20x this cycle at greater probabilities than I am assigning, but hey, I really hate counting any chickens before they are hatched - even though I am NOT at all in any kind of disagreement about either the asymmetric nature of the bitcoin bet or that the odds for having "great" upside performance in bitcoin seems to be way higher than any other asset that I can imagine investing into at this time).

I can't be consistent about brushing my teeth, let alone investing $50 per week or whatever over 7 years.

At least you are honest and admit to your limitations.

[Krubster]

This could be an interesting poll -- who of us has retired thanks to bitcoin?

It's not my time......yet! too small of a fish.

Your time will come -- probably sooner than later. In fact, anybody with more than 1 BTC will probably be able to retire within 5 years.

It kind of sucks getting older, but when it comes to bitcoin I just want to fast-forward the time -- I can't wait to see how this play out!

[JayJuanGee]

I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless

I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings

8+ years later I'm retired with a close to double-digit $million fortune. What an incredible experience it's been.

Congratulations to all of you.

This could be an interesting poll -- who of us has retired thanks to bitcoin?

It's not my time......yet! too small of a fish.

Don't want to get into any of your specifics or your OPsec, but $50 per week for 7 years would have put relatively "small fish(es)" into a decent place... - nearly 22 bitcoin and a value of nearly $1.3 million - with "ONLY" about a $18.5k investment spread over 7 years.

There could have been a problem with anyone to attempt to be consistent in such investing into BTC over the years and even having some sense of frontloading the investment stake could have caused the BTC accumulation levels to become MOAR higher than those listed in the above linkening... and another thing would have been NOT getting shaken from coins at various points along the way - or temptations to sell some of dee lil fiends to try to accumulate more coins and take those selling actions at the wrong time or failing to buy at the right time (getting too greedy or to smart).

Another thing, as we have been discussing is trying to figure out how much is enough coins based on a variety of factors including ongoing volatility and expected volatility - and maybe another doubling or tripling of value could help... which does seem reasonably reachable within this cycle (odds of such may be approaching 30% or greater?  I know some peeps are putting odds of another 2x or 3x or even 5-20x this cycle at greater probabilities than I am assigning, but hey, I really hate counting any chickens before they are hatched - even though I am NOT at all in any kind of disagreement about either the asymmetric nature of the bitcoin bet or that the odds for having "great" upside performance in bitcoin seems to be way higher than any other asset that I can imagine investing into at this time).

I can't be consistent about brushing my teeth, let alone investing $50 per week or whatever over 7 years.

Hahahaha

These are the kinds of thingies that we attempt to learn as we grow our lil selfies UPpity.

In other words, we have capacities to learn practices to discipline ourselves to engage in behaviors that are better for ourselves in the longer term rather than the short term.. like waiting for the two marshmellows rather than eating the one right away.. It is also called delayed gratification in some circles.

I was thinking about another point, too, in terms of someone who may have been able to accumulate somewhere in the ballpark of 20BTC over the last 7 years or more.  Sure, $1 million-ish could generate a passive income of around $3,333 per month if BTC is able to keep its $50k plus value, but it would be difficult to feel assured about that... and gosh, would $3,333 per month be enough.  Frequently, I have argued that it is, especially with a passive income kind of thinking - in terms of NOT having to work but to be able to withdraw that amount every month.

Surely, a more solid grounding would be to use the 208-week moving average which is currently at about $10k, and going up close to $200 per week.

I am considering kinds of BTC price projection plans and some projects that might get put into a trust or something, but then if we currently use 100 BTC to assess the value at $1million, maybe it would still be prudent to withdraw at 10% per year in such a system and to also maybe have a 2% per year fee going to the trust administrator.  That would be $8,333 per month going to the beneficiary (which is ($1million x 10%) / 12 months) and $1,667 per month going to the administrator (which is ($1million x 2%) / 12 months)...  Of course there is a total of $10k passive income being generated at these levels, so if the income requirements are much less, then the size of the stash would then be much less, and currently a stash that is 1/3 the size would end up generating a $3,333 monthly income - which would be $10k (208k weekly MA price) x 33 BTC = $333,333k BTC stash value x 12% (allowed withdrawal rate per year - $40k) / 12 months.

Just playing around with some of these ideas and use of a 100 BTC stash, a trust and considering creating a separate thread on the topic at some point... and surely, I do consider the 208-week moving average to continue to go up at a decent pace in the coming years.. but if there were a kind of program that were to be created using those kinds of evaluations could be quite interesting for some of us trying to figure out what to do with some of our BTC stash (and the likely value that could be generated from such on a regular and ongoing basis).

[lightfoot]

Don't want to get into any of your specifics or your OPsec, but $50 per week for 7 years would have put relatively "small fish(es)" into a decent place... - nearly 22 bitcoin and a value of nearly $1.3 million - with "ONLY" about a $18.5k investment spread over 7 years.

That's enough for me to buy
A trip to France across the seas,
A motorboat and water skis,
Maybe even a foregian car,
A charge account at the corner bar,
Not to mention a scrabble board with letters made of gold!

Props to anyone who recognizes this without searching. Some things don't change.....

[Wekkel]

To all those concerned that they have told too many people about their Bitcoin ownership, fearnot. In 5-10 years time everyone will own Bitcoin, so you will no longer stand out from the crowd and instead will be mostly forgotten in the noise. Just give it time.

You’ve got a point 

[Biodom]

My take on this is that bitcoin is a chance for humanity as a whole to transition to a better system.
It would be something akin to a cruel joke if this is somehow curtailed after 12 years in the making.

That said, the trajectory is unclear, the current patch of following the "predicted" graph notwithstanding.
Everybody expect a straight path at a 45 degree angle to 150-200K, then a typical bear market to, say, 60K.
However, we might get something that not many are prepared for-a brief and violent correction from 60-80K to 35-40K, then flat, then a rise to above 288K, maybe even above 500k.
The difference: earlier correction, then rise to higher than expected.
Personally, I am quite comfortable with a 52-60K range. In my book, it could continue for months, but how likely is this? Not very.

How bitcoin looks like in a higher inflation background? We expect it to be very bullish, albeit gold is declining despite apparently higher inflation expectations.
Does it show that inflation would be followed by a stronger deflation pulse? If so, then why oil is rising? Maybe gold is being de-monetized (in favor of btc) and gold's movement is irrelevant?

Interesting nugget: I was checking some RE around the country and it is an amazing picture. In some spots things are stable, while in others there is an incredible bump up in the last 6-12 mo. COVID effect (escape from the cities)?
What happens if you buy now at that 1.5-2X bumped price? Most likely it would slowly go down in the next 10-20 years, which makes buying in those places and prices a non-starter, hence someone cannot even exchange btc proceeds into something stable aka real estate (at favorable locations). Of course , you can buy if you want to be there, but you are bound to lose money on many of the current "deals", imho.

[Wekkel]

Updated Chart.

https://i.imgur.com/iqiV6Wz.png

Almost 

In the vocabulary of this thread: this means that Bitcoin is going sideways for too long 

[dieselmeister]

As per chart below $57000 BTC is bullish .  And My Targets are $72000/$78000  



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/dpUsEzQv-Bitcoin-Ready-for-78000-for-New-All-time-high-and-After/

mmmh ... seems to working yet.

[Wekkel]

I think there will be a flood of cheap gpus for sale by next july, when ETH activates EIP1559.

Dunno who is still buying and scalping gpus at these prices with such a deadline in close sight...

I’m not familiar with the change in Ethereum. Could you elaborate?

[cAPSLOCK]

We know the stimmy was $1400 - Please tell us you spent the rest on steaks and beer. 

Didn't need a stimmy. Does not feel right asking for one.

Respect.

[Wekkel]

True words:

If you treat #bitcoin  like a fiat asset, it will treat you like a fiat holder

source: https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1373417055999959051?s=21

[OutOfMemory]

Massive pump to 75000 coming before April, you heard it here first. Once we break 60000 comfortably we will move to new highs. 2021 is the shit!

Yes, we heard it here first, but IIRC already some weeks ago  

EDIT: I see support building in the low to mid €49k's. We could break $60k (€50k) comfortably today, but this would be clearly a very optimistic view.

THAT didn't age well 
Too optimistic, as i said 
No fiat to reload, wifey wanted to buy a horse, but since it turned out to be a rather lame duck, she will put the same amount into corn.
Good girl 

[vroom]

Massive pump to 75000 coming before April, you heard it here first. Once we break 60000 comfortably we will move to new highs. 2021 is the shit!

Yes, we heard it here first, but IIRC already some weeks ago  

EDIT: I see support building in the low to mid €49k's. We could break $60k (€50k) comfortably today, but this would be clearly a very optimistic view.

THAT didn't age well 
Too optimistic, as i said 
No fiat to reload, wifey wanted to buy a horse, but since it turned out to be a rather lame duck, she will put the same amount into corn.
Good girl 

I'm very curious to see what comes from NYDIG next week. Maybe that will make Bitcoin pumpy.

[Biodom]

True words:

If you treat #bitcoin  like a fiat asset, it will treat you like a fiat holder

source: https://twitter.com/pierre_rochard/status/1373417055999959051?s=21

True, but, overall, there are some truly nut cases on that thread.

[wxa7115]

I think there will be a flood of cheap gpus for sale by next july, when ETH activates EIP1559.

Dunno who is still buying and scalping gpus at these prices with such a deadline in close sight...

I’m not familiar with the change in Ethereum. Could you elaborate?

It is difficult to know if people are being sarcastic in written form since this is probably the most hardcore bitcoin thread on the forum but I will answer, basically the ethereum developers are trying to reduce the fees users need to pay to move their shitcoins and they are planning to throw miners under the bus by reducing their profits, taking into account ethereum plans to move from PoW to PoS this is not surprising, and also in the process the ethereum developers added something called a base fee that will be burned to try control the supply of ethereum, or to put it in fewer words this makes ethereum way worse than it was so miners will either switch coins to mine or will just sell their equipment.

Sorry for the altcoin rant.

[Millionero]

[...]

I have recalled several occasions driving by myself in a fairly spacious luxury car (think of a medium-sized SUV) and then parking in the parking lot next to someone who has a tiny car, but they are fitting a family of 7 (including dog) into a car that really should only sit 4 at most (think of a vw beetle or some small car that might be slightly larger)... and sure, I feel a bit guilty in my thinking that they would fit much more nicely in my car, and I could fit more easily into their car as one person rather than 7, but I still do not exchange cars with them, even though I already realize that it should be quite obvious that I am much better off financially than them, and I am not sure whether they might have more bonding over their ridiculous experiences of fitting so many in their car and hanging out in such proximity that would be quite uncomfortable for me.

[...]

If you did swap your car with theirs, you could be called a truly religious person, not just in name, but in substance, at least as far as Christianity is concerned. Someone once said: "If you have two shirts and your neighbour has none, you are not religious."

Although I'm an atheist, so I don't recognize any god whose teachings I should dogmatically follow, I can understand and sympathize with the situation you're describing above. The world, by its very nature, is an extremely cruel place, and one cannot survive and keep his/her sanity without having to live with, and tolerate such huge imbalances of wants, needs, and ability (or lack thereof) to fulfill them. Communism has attempted to solve the above problem, but we've all seen the consequences... IMHO, in the end, it all comes down to human nature, which is a selfish nature. Whether we like it or not, we are all programmed to survive at all costs.

So, don't feel guilty about not swapping your car with theirs. This is the expected behaviour. If you wish to help the world, just help yourself first (as you've already said), and then you'll be in a better position to help others if you so wish.

Damn, Sunday afternoon, no coffee, and here I am blabbering again...

Got to visit my dear cousin, niece & nephew today (will need to sneak past COVID-19 movement restrictions, hopefully I won't get stopped/fined).

Corn is not doing so well (relatively speaking—are we greedy or what?), the Stimulus Check pump was not even for ants, if it even materialized... Not to worry though, the real pump will come soon, and it won't be for ants. Math & science.

Have you even considered the effect of swapping a nice big car for a dinky, worn out rattletrap?  First of all, if you offered them your car, they might see you as a meddlesome, self-absorbed goody two-shoes (which might be close to the truth) and tell you to fuck off.  Or if they accepted, they might end up hating you for it.  And you would end up kicking yourself for doing such a stupid thing -- look at this smelly little rust-bucket with bad shocks I gave my nice SUV away for!
Let's be real, you ain't giving your car away.

[Wekkel]

I think there will be a flood of cheap gpus for sale by next july, when ETH activates EIP1559.

Dunno who is still buying and scalping gpus at these prices with such a deadline in close sight...

I’m not familiar with the change in Ethereum. Could you elaborate?

It is difficult to know if people are being sarcastic in written form since this is probably the most hardcore bitcoin thread on the forum but I will answer,  [...]

Sorry for the altcoin rant.

Thanks for the explanation. So essentially, the rewards for miners goes down I guess.

[vroom]

I think there will be a flood of cheap gpus for sale by next july, when ETH activates EIP1559.

Dunno who is still buying and scalping gpus at these prices with such a deadline in close sight...

I’m not familiar with the change in Ethereum. Could you elaborate?

It is difficult to know if people are being sarcastic in written form since this is probably the most hardcore bitcoin thread on the forum but I will answer,  [...]

Sorry for the altcoin rant.

Thanks for the explanation. So essentially, the rewards for miners goes down I guess.

The PoW to PoS transistion will be fun to watch. I predict a fork, ethpow and ethpos.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Cameron Winklevoss
@cameron
#Bitcoin  before and after headlines. How it started. How it’s going.

https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1373731821482037258?s=21