Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I revised my post a wee bit (including that cited part), but still.. I think that we can agree to disagree.  Can we not? I think that you are both coming off as too judgmental and seem to have some kind of built in (wrong) presumption that people are less than objective because they are talking their book (maybe even subliminally).

I will agree that many of the more active participants are interested in a common topic, and some of us have more time than others to participate in discussion here.  But, even amongst peeps who seem to agree, we don't necessarily agree as much you seem to be making us out to be agreeing.

Probably you need to hang out with us a bit more, so you will lessen the quantity of your premature (and ill-founded) judging.. and join the fucking club.. where's your hat? where's your lazer eyes?  Don't you know nuttin about being a proper WO moonie?  At least you got such the right wow name for it.  #nohomo.

Disagreeing is half 99% of the fun on the intertubes, otherwise it would be an utterly boring circle jerk.

That's a bit much suchmoon.  Whether on the interwebs or not, it is not a good character trait to merely disagree for the sake of it, and I surely do not mind a bit of argument here and there, but if the arguments are NOT really attempting to get anywhere or even switching the facts or the questions, then there can be a certain amount of disingenuineness there rather than really batting around differing opinions or even having differing interpretations and weighings of importance of facts.

Your seeming flippancy kind of reminds me of another dog-walking related story.  Sorry to bore you with dog walking stories and maybe it just goes to show some of my lackenings of real life excitement... but anyhow, here goes.

I was walking my dog in a neighborhood in which it seemed that every house had 1-5 dogs in their gated yard (on both sides of the street, so I am walking down the street with my 33 lb dog (15 kilos).. kind of medium sized dog, and my dog was attempting to meet with the dogs through the fences as we were walking.  Sometimes I would pause a bit so that she could meet the other dogs and other times I would just try to keep moving, and some of the dogs were continuing to go crazy while others were settling down after meeting with my dog through the fence, so as I was getting through that block area (maybe 100 feet or so), I continued to walk on the street and a stocky guy was walking towards me from the other direction but on the other side of the fairly narrow street. I was not paying too much attention, and I had some noise-cancelling headphones on, so I just kind of walked and then just looked at the guy and he was trying to get my attention and was speaking at me in a kind of loud voice.  I could not really hear what he was saying and I was trying to shut off my Iphone or to take off my headphones, and finally I started to say something like:  "huh, I could not hear you because of my headphones."  He talked over me and he yelled across the street so we were maybe 20 feet from each other but i was kind of continuing to move but sort of stopping so I could hear what he was saying.  He might have been getting more aggravated because he was already repeating himself, and he said something like: "You are provoking my dogs" and I said, "huh I am just walking through and not doing anything."  He repeated, "you are provoking my dogs, and don't be provoking my dogs", and again I said something like: "huh? No I am not.  I am not doing anything"  He repeated again:  "Don't provoke my dogs.  You should not be provoking my dogs."  By then, I started to just give a rolling eye and sort of irritated look as I was putting my headphones back on and continuing to walk.  He did not say anything further except kind of looking at me, and did not try to get closer to me as I continued to walk and I just continued walking.

So point of the story seems to be that you, suchmoon, had been provoking this dog.

 

BTW I'm hanging out here probably more than I should, just not posting much because y'all seem to be able to rile each other up without my help LOL. I know, judging-generalizing again.

There are various reasons to get riled.. the price is a bit frustrating, and even if there were nothing to rile anybody, seems that some people may want to provoke others from time to time on a variety of topics... some of the topics repeat, too... as you can imagine, without me having to list them.

Seriously though, even if I'm (at least partly) right, it's not necessarily a bad thing. Having this... uhm...
supportive atmosphere here

That does not sound right.  "supportive"... seems to me that we are talking about a subject matter of mutual interest, and there are quite a few people who either provide decent perspectives or links to current events, and surely sometimes we can try to brainstorm about some ideas.. and largely seem to be able to carry on a bit of a higher level of discourse  in terms of what is going on and sometimes various misleading information that might be batted around in the space.

You have likely been out to some of the various threads in the forum, and gosh, sometimes the level of understanding seems to be quite lacking... and it can become a bit aggravating to have to bat around some of the seeming basics and maybe not even getting beyond the basics or may be even some reiterations of mainstream media ideas, so there are quite a few guys in this thread that do seem to be quite capable of cutting through a lot of the bullshit, even some of the ones who have some trollie kinds of childish behaviors can sometimes bring some decent insights and perspectives from time to time.. some more frequently than others.

probably helped some peeps to not dump their coins at the bottom of a dip.

Could be.  We might have a pretty decent number of mostly HODLers and buyers on dips.. and many know not to sell on dips... but surely guys s have differing perspectives and some have used leverage and even changed their minds about the BTC price direction, and does not hurt to hear some of those arguments, too.. to the extent that there might be arguments rather than just squiggly lines or a mere feeling....

I may disagree on what is or is not positive for Bitcoin but in the long run it all kinda blurs out anyway.

I would not know if anything we say here has much if any of an effect on BTC price direction, and also it can be unclear about what kinds of factors might affect BTC price direction, including some of the BIGGER news items or BIGGER hype around certain subjects.  Also, sometimes there can be questions about what might cause some of the BTC price prediction models to break.. and surely some guys either do not believe in some of the BTC price prediction models or they want to make up their own shit.  Sure, if we zoom out, it might not have mattered about some of our conversations - even though while we are going through certain processes or certain price movements it may well matter to a lot of individuals about certain conversations even though it also might be difficult to measure in the aggregate.... So, blurry or not, and am not conceding about these conversations not mattering...including that there may well be some folks who decide to make decently sized changes in their lives because of some of these kinds of conversations or even their investment choices could end up causing them to have pretty damned BIG ass changes - whether we helped or hurt Mindrust when he finally decided to dump almost all of his BTC and to leave us may well be another story... there are quite a few different kinds of guys through the years, and sometimes we cannot really know if their stories are real or not, and I do take some of them at their word.. and others with a decently-sized grain of salt and each of us has to decide for ourselves if we believe that our participation here is helpful to ourselves and our own objectives.. rather than merely considering the whole matter as a kind of unimportant rambling of a blur.

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[1714929158]

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[Xinarae*]

Bitcoin seems to me that for a short period of time some groups or a few people want to keep Bitcoin down for a while but Bitcoin can't keep it down for a long time. Since Bitcoin is repeatedly trying to win the Fire in its previous place, we can say that Bitcoin will exceed the target at the specified time(soon $62k).



https://twitter.com/SirBrianTurner/status/1402113408837685249

[AlcoHoDL]

One man's trash is another man's treasure. Don't discount the possibility of trash having any value just because you believe it should not. They do. While we all believe they should be zero ... it's currently above zero for now. If you know how to take advantage of it, you probably would try. If not, then it's just as well to keep whatever value you need in just bitcoin.

Of course.. no need to either fuck around with shitcoins nor talk about possible hopenings of them here... so go take those kinds of nonsense ponderings about the possibility of value in trash..  blah blah blah...  somewhere else.  Oh yeah, I just found a can in that trash, and I could recycle it.. .. blah blah blah..

i.e... "subjective value is value too" blah blah blah..

We (royal of course) are not concerned about the truth of the matter asserted.... anything but bitcoin is shit, in case you were wondering. #nohomo

......and don't you dare go into this cryptocurrency shit.

I remember seeing that video a while back... ... it is even funnier now.. upon watching it again...

He even told me to withdraw that 0.17 BTC from Kraken and keep it in a paper wallet, so that he won't be tempted to "play" with shitcoins again.

May I suggest a normal wallet like, say, Electrum. Then write on paper the seed phrase. I understand paper wallet also means private key written down but that can get confusing in the future and you might inadvertently use a different address format that is not native segwit.

Of course, done on an air gapped cold machine, if possible.

Yes, good idea, thanks. He's not very good with technical stuff, so I should keep things as simple as can be. A vanilla paper wallet (without a seed) can be dangerous. The seed is a human-readable version of the private key, so I should use that instead.

Yes... I understand that peeps are quite reluctant to spend $150-ish  whoops, they went up in price $200-ish for a hardware wallet, such as a Trezor Model T - and yeah.. I see that they are now claiming to support 1,200 shitcoins.. so that could end up causing too many temptations to hold onto shitcoins.. so kind of understandable, that.  Maybe I am just confused by paper wallets and traumatized by some of my previous electrum experiences when I was trying to figure out if I could claim my bcash through electrum in 2017.. so surely sometimes experiential limitations might inform choices.. and even show my own needs to learn and experiment with other wallets to have some better knowledge and comforts... like wallets that allow for transacting through lightning network, too  (more of a "me" thing rather than considering the situation of your kind of coiner friend).  

By the way would be good to get your friend into DCA investing.. fucking powerful to have DCA investing.. and hardly even notice how powerful it tends to become.  $20 a week or whatever.. or just lump sum with $80 per month to save on some fees..even though I am kind of more inclined towards weekly purchases.. and Swan bitcoin would surely be good for that.. if the amounts are relatively small, then once a year or so, send from Swan to cold storage wallet... I know.. more involved, but still.. fuck the laziness of just ONLY sitting on BTC... and your friend has already shown that he needs something to keep him busy as long as he knows that the rules are not to fuck around with selling, just accumulation and HODL only...

Yes.. I know that you are suggesting that your friend could have had 5 BTC over the past 5 years, but the power of DCA shows that $20 per week over the past 5 years would have gotten the guy about 1.87BTC..  which would have been $5,220 invested.

I am going to presume that if we multiply by three to $60 per week, then maybe your friend could budget 3x higher than my $20 starting suggestion.. especially since he is more experienced, and he seems to potentially have a higher budget. Over the past 5 years, $60 per week would have generated 12.25x in profits on an investment of $15,660 that would have added up to the accumulation of about 5.6 BTC.  

Sure so, even if that $60 per week DCA method is not getting to the 30x returns that you are saying that he could have had gotten (presuming lump sum front-loading investing), it is still a very good return.. and somewhat passive.  Note: I am going to admit that lump sum investing can surely be better than DCA in terms of actual front-loading price performance, but you are saying that your friend is already doing a certain amount of front-end lump-summing with his $6k.  Furthermore, if someone such as your friend is actually somewhat burnt out on the whole investing in "crypto" situation, he might be more able to swallow the medicine of practical investing (rather than gambling) with DCA-ing that is kind of more under the radar in terms of just ongoing investing of relatively small amounts that he should be able to afford without any major sacrifices in his expected ongoing lifestyle.

Thanks for this Jay, these are some great ideas for him to consider, and I will let him know. DCA is a good investment strategy, and DCA+Bitcoin is just awesome. Just thinking of the amount of profit one can achieve by only regularly contributing pocket change amounts really. I also liked the ease of use of the Swan app. This will surely make the process much easier than logging in to Kraken, setting up orders, etc. In fact, it sounds kind of good for me too. What's wrong with putting $50 per week or month in Bitcoin? Hell, even Bob does it! Many people consider $50 to be far too small to even bother investing in Bitcoin, and wait to accumulate larger chunks of fiat. I do that too. I've never transferred amounts less than $1000 to an exchange for buying BTC. The key word here is regularity. $50, or even $10, when converted to BTC regularly, say, every week or month, can lead to unbelievably large gains. It's so tempting...

About that video, yeah, it's funny. I made it by chopping clips from a longer video of this guy talking about how he got scammed by Bitconnect. It's sad really, if you think about it. So many people falling for this "cryptocurrency shit". I guess greed is so strong that it can overwhelm logical thinking and drive people to do crazy things. I mean, just look at Bitcoin's performance over the years. What more could anyone want? How much better? But people, especially noobs, want an even faster way to reach "fuck-you" status, and then they get "fucked-up" by those scams. In a funny way, they did achieve a kind of "fuck-you" status, except they were the ones being fucked up.

My above mentioned friend can also be considered one of those people. He started with $6k, when 1 BTC = $1k-1.5k. He could have bought 4-5 BTC then. But he thought "it's too expensive" as usual, and played with shitcoins instead. Non-stop. For almost 5 years! Sure, he ended up with nearly 3x of his initial investment (from $6k to $16k), which sounds kind of OK. But to do this, he made countless buys/sells between dozens of shitcoins. His Kraken account once reached a 30-day volume of more than $1M. He even installed a PC+monitor in his bedroom (I wonder what his wife thought of this), just to be able to observe the charts 24/7. So much work for a measly 3x gain? If he had bought 5 BTC and had just forgotten about it (no work, no chart observing, no trying to catch the market, etc., just HoDLing), he would now have $160k which is around 27x of his initial investment. I think this is what he has now realised, and he just wants to withdraw his profits. At least he's keeping his initial investment ($6k) in BTC, just under 0.2 BTC, and he intends to HoDL it for many years he says.

The lesson learned here is that investing in Bitcoin requires patience, it's a slow process, not a get-rich-quick scheme. For me, an important element that empowered me to HoDL strong and not sell or do any other crazy shit, is understanding the tech. When one understands how Bitcoin works and what gives it its superiority over any other shitcoin out there, then it's much easier to keep HoDLing, even through tough times such as 2018-2019. No need to be a rocket scientist, there are features in Bitcoin that are so easy to understand, such as the concept of Halving. This is what made me purchase my first coins in late-2015. Because I knew that the upcoming 2016 Halving would drive the price up. It's simple supply-demand, no need to be an expert or anything, just common sense.

So, to sum things up, I'd say, if you have a big chunk of fiat, buy Bitcoin now. If not, do it the DCA way, as you eloquently described above. Either way is a winning strategy. I know some of us here are playing with shitcoins, and that's OK if they know what they're doing, or if the end target is BTC. But for those (like me) who want peace of mind, and don't want to be glued to a screen observing charts 24/7, Bitcoin is an almost sure bet, that will take its time, will have its ups and downs, its Saylors and its Elons, but will greatly reward us in the end, whatever that end may be for each one of us.

[El duderino_]

Getting time for a reversal rocket 🚀

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LoyceV]

[ur l=http://error]

[im g width=300]http://error[/img]

Drunk bot?

I had a "nightmare" last night, I dreams Bitcoin was down to €16k. Luckily it was "only" down to €26k when I woke up.

[machasm]

You know we are in a crazy world run by emotions when tweets and triangles have more effect on price than bullish fundamentals such as countries adopting bitcoin.
I am not worried and still stack sats knwing that in the end, fundamentals trumps all.
Stay strong my fellow WO brethren.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused 
click ignore 

     yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench 

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

[UnDerDoG81]

It's been over 10 years, but it's wild to finally see the confirmed end of bitcoin play out in real time. What should we do now?

Let's spread some love...!!!

I love the idea of a decentralized form of money! 

Proudhon is a sarcastic mega bull.

[somac.]

So price is not looking good once again, expected with the complete lack of demand lately, mempool empty etc. Anyway, I’ve been looking through a lot of indicators, very few of them indicated our recent top. That could be because we still haven’t reached the top for this cycle though I currently find that unlikely.

In a hunt for something that did indicate the top (and previous tops), while still being based on some actual fundamentals (rather then stupid shit like MACD), I have found what I think makes the most sense. Short-term holder supply.

This first chart is a little old, but as you can see it appears as though short-term holders drive the price. This makes sense as increased short terms means more demand as noobs flood into the market when at first they think it is good value/time to start accumulating, and then later with FOMO. Excluding the Mt Gox bubble of 2013, each top shows a definite slowing of noob buying. Each low in price and bull run beginning, also seems to be shown buy first a pausing of the decline in short termers then followed by an increase.



Same can be seen in chart 2 below



Now look at chart 3 and you’ll see a pretty exact picture of what I mentioned above for the recent top. So in my opinion we aren’t going to see this price decline stop until we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders and then for price to increase again we would need an increase in these short-term holders



In conclusion, we may be at a bottom, but I won’t believe it till we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders. And whenever this happens (hopefully now) it will be a better time to start buying.

Too bad glassnode don’t give this data away for free.

[Gyrsur]

Explanation

Code:

[quote author=ChartBuddy link=topic=178336.msg57184842#msg57184842 date=1623142919]
[url=http://error][img]https://i.imgur.com/ETbGPPP.png[/img][img width=300]http://error[/img][/url]
[url=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10084622#msg10084622]Explanation[/url]

something is wrong with your service, ChartBuddy.

please fix it because one user is on its way to establish a movement against you for banning you here.

[Gyrsur]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

EDIT:

[modrobert]

In conclusion, we may be at a bottom, but I won’t believe it till we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders. And whenever this happens (hopefully now) it will be a better time to start buying.

I felt similar after looking at this:



The deep BTC dips occur shortly after the "unconfirmed transaction" peaks.

[Arriemoller]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

Minorities have rights you know.

[Gyrsur]

this mofo chart buddy.

stay focused  
click ignore  

    yeh its irritating looks like the Marianas trench  

Very well put, it's like the junk mail in your inbox, just every hour.
Merited.

look, Bitcoin is working like this:

the majority comes to an agreement for accepting the txs which should be included in the next block, right?

same with ChartBuddy:

the majority came to the agreement that ChartBuddy (again) is very welcome in this thread, right?

please don't open the Pandora's Box again. did you nothing learned from the Hash Block Limit War?  

Minorities have rights you know.

this thread here is not the only place where you can spend your free time. am I right?   #honomo

accept ChartBuddy or please leave. end of discussion from my side because you have the intelligence to understand it but you are not willing it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gyrsur]

Explanation

seems Imgur.com is down. don't blame it on ChartBuddy!

https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/imgur

EDIT:

[somac.]

In conclusion, we may be at a bottom, but I won’t believe it till we see a levelling of the decline in short-term holders. And whenever this happens (hopefully now) it will be a better time to start buying.

I felt similar after looking at this:



The deep BTC dips occur shortly after the "unconfirmed transaction" peaks.

yeah that fits in this time, but not as well with past times. still worth keeping an eye on though.