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His Kraken account once reached a 30-day volume of more than $1M.
It is crazy how much trade volume can add up, even if you are not very active and you might not have a lot of money in an account.
He even installed a PC+monitor in his bedroom (I wonder what his wife thought of this), just to be able to observe the charts 24/7.
I have monitors all over the place too, but I have a couple of monitors that are getting long in the tooth - but I just had bought another computer.. so it seems a bit strange to buy another computer just to be able to set up more reliable monitors in more places.. but I can see myself doing it...... the bedroom might be a bit discourteous, though.
So much work for a measly 3x gain?
It can be turned into a kind of game.. so I can understand, but surely difficult sometimes to appreciate that the quantity of work (obligation that come from just staying active in the systems that you created) can become quite frustrating at times.
With my BTC system, sometimes I get a bit frustrated because if the BTC price is moving a lot, then I have to go through a kind of process to set or reset orders (in either direction), so sometimes the process of setting and resetting orders goes really quick.. like 10-15 minutes - wham, bamb, thank you maam.. but other times, it can become quite a project that takes a few hours .. and I am kind of toying around with some changes currently that take a bit of time, and when I go through to make some of the changes, then I have to think about the matter to make sure that I am actually comfortable with what changes I am going to make, including considering some downside aspects - then sometimes i have to rethink the part that I thought that I had already thought through.
Another thing, each of us has personalities and inclinations, so your friend might have some desires to be tinkering a bit, just to stay "up" with matters, and sure you could just say, get another hobby.. hahahahaha I know with myself, I had moved my spreads out to $6k and $7k, so sometimes it can take a long time for orders to trigger, and I remember sometimes historically, I would just create a new order to cause more work for myself..and to kind of retrigger some activities. So, you can imagine that depending on the order size, sometimes guys might recognize that there is "money on the table right now" that could end up getting "locked in." So instead of making $50 (or .0015625 BTC) on a trade that would wait for the normal course, I might only make $40 (.00125 BTC) by executing the trade early, and executing the trade early would both lock in the profits (albiet lower) and give me something to do (kind of like entertainment).
The lesson learned here is that investing in Bitcoin requires patience, it's a slow process, not a get-rich-quick scheme.
We should all be trying to learn and to practice that lesson of attempting to apply patience, and whatever system we have set up should allow us to not get too emotional about whereever we might be - even though sometimes when the BTC price is dropping a lot, there might be desires to just ignore the whole thing out of frustration - and then when the BTC price is going up like crazy, we might have some kind of apps that we can look at the price (and perhaps the value of our richie status) on a multi-times-per-day frequency.
For me, an important element that empowered me to HoDL strong and not sell or do any other crazy shit, is understanding the tech. When one understands how Bitcoin works and what gives it its superiority over any other shitcoin out there, then it's much easier to keep HoDLing, even through tough times such as 2018-2019. No need to be a rocket scientist, there are features in Bitcoin that are so easy to understand, such as the concept of Halving. This is what made me purchase my first coins in late-2015. Because I knew that the upcoming 2016 Halving would drive the price up. It's simple supply-demand, no need to be an expert or anything, just common sense.
Various aspects of what is important and what is not important does seem to click more with some people as compared with others, and I can surely understand when somethings do NOT seem to click for some people, even though it can be quite frustrating to talk with someone who keeps coming back to the same seemingly nonsense talking point, and so some things are just NOT clicking for some people.. and so many of us just have to be ready.. and maybe even a seemingly dumbie will start to better understand some of the sound money and networking effects of bitcoin beyond some of the more superficial considerations... and of course, we all love NGU technology - except when NGU does not seem to be playing out in the shorter or even the medium term.
So, to sum things up, I'd say, if you have a big chunk of fiat, buy Bitcoin now. If not, do it the DCA way, as you eloquently described above. Either way is a winning strategy.
One of the great powers of DCA is that some people do not even have any kind of lump sum abilities. Sure they might be able to garner up a few thousand dollars, but dedicating that straight into bitcoin might put themselves in stress because sometimes people have tendencies to overdo things, too and not really prepare for some expenses that they might end up having a few weeks down the road.. so systems to deal with cashflow do tend to be inadequate for a lot of people.
Let's say hypothetically, your guy is a bit burned out on bitcoin, but he kind of gives in and creates a few systems that he believes are comfortable for him. He might start to get cocky in the future again, or he may just sit on the whole matter. He might not even know himself how he might feel down the road.
So he lump sums the $6k or some variation of that, and then he sets up $20 to $60 per week for DCA'ing, but then he realizes that each year, he has a variety of cashflows that comes in, and with the passage of time and his higher level of comfort with his slowly growing BTC portfolio, he realizes that at various times he receives lump sum incoming cashflow that could cause him to invest - and of course, since he has become a reformed shitcoiner... he realizes that within those lump sums, he could dedicate anywhere between $3k to $6k per year (depending on how things work out) to bitcoin investing. Surely, he could dedicate the whole amounts to lump sum investing as soon as it comes in, but since he has become a bit more established (and maybe balanced in his whole BTC versus other investments), he can be more patient to divide those sums into three parts 1/3 lump sum, 1/3 DCA and 1/3 buying on dips... just saying as a supplemental consideration.. and of course, would potentially interfere with a good thing which is just the carrying out of pure DCA.. and just plugging those bonus amounts into his DCA system so that he does not really have to think about it much more than just temporarily changing the settings on his Swann account and making sure that he has that money in his drawn from DCA account.
I know some of us here are playing with shitcoins, and that's OK if they know what they're doing, or if the end target is BTC.
Fuck shit coins. #justsaying.
But for those (like me) who want peace of mind, and don't want to be glued to a screen observing charts 24/7, Bitcoin is an almost sure bet, that will take its time, will have its ups and downs, its Saylors and its Elons, but will greatly reward us in the end, whatever that end may be for each one of us.
Oh for sure with the passage of time, there going to be a lot of celebrities. Let's say that your friend struggles and gets up to 1 BTC over the next few years, and there will be people who come into bitcoin, and even though bitcoins are $1million each, they plop down their fiat and all of a sudden they have their 10 BTC.. so probably the best we can do is to attempt to figure out if there might be anything to learn from the various celebrities regarding what to do or not do, and hopefully retain a solid of enough plan that we are largely working our own bettering of ourselves through our investment without getting too distracted by what others might be doing (besides maybe being able to learn from them from time to time).
By the way.. sometimes I cannot stop typing once I get started... and, I don't want to go through a BIG ass repetition of some of my earlier points, but any of us do need to consider our own level of satisfaction regarding the returns that we may or may not get with bitcoin versus the returns of other possible asset classes - and I am not even going to suggest considering any shitcoins in this because I am just going to presume that we have already recognized bitcoin as the leader in this particular asset class - until we get evidence to the contrary. At the same time, we have to figure out what level of returns are comfortable for us, and are there other places that we might want to place our money to attempt to achieve whatever level of returns that we would like to target or even as forms of insurance - property and equities are considerations.
So, if we look at bitcoin before 2016, there could have been some ways to get between 20x and more than 100x in returns in pretty short timeframes, and if we look at the past 5 years, yes even in that mistakes could have been made (we are not all saints - just some of us), and our returns could have varied between 10x and 60x depending on a variety of factors including timing and some other matters related to strategies that might not have played out so well.
Even though I personally have become more bullish on my overall BTC performance expectations, I still believe that it remains prudent NOT to get too overly anxious about what kinds of returns that any new money might end up making. Sure, we have a historical set of evidence that bitcoin has always been higher 4 years later, even if some of us might have FOMO bought at the tippity top of the peak BTC price, but personally, I am not going to rest my expectations on the past performance guaranteeing future results in terms of the BTC price always being higher 4 years later no matter what, including the fact that there could be some relatively highly incentivized folks (whether governments, banks or some other status quo institutions) that strive to manipulate bitcoin to such high extremes that some of the various past patterns end up NOT being true - including the fact that if we are still in a bull market, the fact that some folks were saying that corrections of more than 40% could not happen blah blah blah (and even some folks were suggesting 30% as the max). I surely do not appreciate sorcerer wannabes, and I surely do not claim to know hardly shit, but I already anticipated that we could have much greater corrections than what were being proposed as limitations. blah blah blah.
What I am trying to say is that my BTC price performance expectations remain higher than they were in 2013 when I was hoping for an average of 6% per year to be my preferred minimum goal before I would thereafter consider performances greater than 6% per year (on average) as icing on the cake. Whatever your expectations, whether 6% per year or some other reasonable amount (I do not consider either 100% or 200% per year to be reasonable), these kinds of assessment should be attempted from the price where we are at currently. So yeah as I type we have gone from about $32,500 down the $31,025 in the past 90 minutes, which $31,025 which was just touched upon in the past 10 minutes would be the actual lowest that we have reached in the last two weeks. And, also if this is a test of $30,066.. which was nearly 3 weeks ago, but also the low for the past 4 months (not lower than $30k since late January 2021).
Anyhow, any of us are going to have some troubles trying to figure out how to assess short-term BTC price when the BTC price is seeming to move quite a bit and support (or even resistance - if the BTC price were to be going in the opposite direction, which it is not, sorry to say), so yeah, any of us could feel uncomfortable trying to assess where we are at and what is the current base (maybe the trying to catch a falling knife precautionary tale?).
Apart from our currently seeming dramatic BTC price moves, I am suggesting that we should be attempting to figure out whatever we are considering as our base price (which should be in the ballpark of the current price, removing some of the extremes) and then attempting to figure out our anticipated future BTC price performance from there. So if we are trying to be somewhat conservative, then maybe we stick with some kind of expectation that is 6% to 15% per year price performance (though I even believe 15% is a bit much), and to make our plans according to fairly conservative estimates.
I know that you AlcoHoDL are not really hostile to attempting to maintain somewhat conservative estimates of short to medium BTC price performance (and perhaps even longer term BTC price performance), even though historically you have been more willing to be bolder than me in terms of your attempts to match historical BTC price performance in bolder ways, which surely might be more realistic than my more conservative estimates that have historically been way outperformed, and I do not really mind having my relatively conservative estimates outperformed because I feel that I am both financially and psychologically prepared for that - even if I have been having some troubles figuring out how to spend my monies in higher levels of richie status than had been expected.. which surely has both psychological and financial components to better learn how to be richie and spend money like a richie or like a drunk sailor .. and maybe the dude needs to give drunk sailor spending lessons?. #just thinking out loud.
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