Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

What does that mean? 

That it’s Wednesday duuuuuuh….

[1714781685]

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[1714781685]

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[1714781685]

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[Gyrsur]

sometimes ppl have a special day in the week for special events.  

EDIT: BitCoin is soo quiet. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

The CEO of BitCoin has spoken:

"With the first country in the world which implemented BitCoin as a legal tender I declare every strong volatility is 'strengstens verboten' from now on."

[Sign and Seal of the CEO of BitCoin]

Something about the misspelling of bitcoin like that really irks me, even for a joke... but frequently I do appreciate dweebs spelling bitcoin like that, and if they continue to spell it like that, even when they are called out (or asked to fix their spelling), and if they refuse to fix it, that is a pretty strong sign that they are disingenuous, likely NOT very smart about what is bitcoin and also likely butt hurt too.

…..

My no coiner brother recently texted me (when bitcoin around 50k)
“So looks like your Bit Coins are doing good huh?”
I was gonna correct his bitcoin spelling ignorance with my typical snarkiness but thought better if it,
and just replied with a stupid shit eating grin/$$ sign emoji.
I didn’t want to come off as an asshat know it all. ( even though I am…)

[cAPSLOCK]

OK. I have a confession.

I am becoming a blockstream fanboy.  Maybe it's partly to be contrarian because of all the BSV types talking about how they subverted bitcoin.

1.  Scaling choices and general philosophy.
OK, This is the controversial one.  They are the consummate small blockers and they are often accused of subverting bitcoin because of this.  I will not ignite yet another blocksize conversation, but since I agree with their choice then I see their actions as rational.  The products they offer are tailored towards scaling needs based on small blocks.  Something they are quiet about is THEY are pocketing the liquid fees.  I see this as COMPLETELY reasonable.  Particularly because if it is something someone does not want to use, then it does not HAVE to be used.  Elements, their federated blockchain model in use with Liquid is FOSS and anyone can build their own.  If someone wants to launch a sidechain that charges NO fees or distributes them differently then they can.

2. Liquid.  
This is still a sleeper.  I think the power of a federated settlement layer on top of BTC is not yet grokked by the masses.   It adds CT to a BTC settlement layer which is super valuable.  Since it is a fedarated model the database can be bloated up as long as the Federation member will continue to store the chain, and can be trusted AS A GROUP not to cheat. Again.  Since this is not the BASE CHAIN it leave the base chain pristine so we do not have to introduce trust there.  This is the way.

3. Liquid assets.  
Ethereum is a train wreck.  It is a tool creating the problems it then claims to solve.  Did we really NEED OMG, or any of the other stupid tokens?  No.  hey were nothing more than an abstracted layer from the base that was used in countless shell games to fleece us.  But the reason I am writing this is Blockstream created a token on liquid that I paid $35.99 in L-USDT for.  It is sitting in my wallet on my phone.  When they get their Jades in stock I will be able to use it to buy one.  This is one of the FIRST token i have seen that is actually used for something that is... well... USEFUL.  And they are choosing to do the idea that ETHEREUM did badly the RIGHT way.  These tokens and all the data associated will be clogging up hard drives ar BitMex and Wiz's computer.  No extra garbage on the main chain.  And if this sidechain ends up being in heavy use it can maintain low fees and make Blockstream all the money they need to keep going. And if they get too frisky?  Well people will migrate to another chain for all the whiz-bang stuff we do not want clogging up BITCOIN.

4. Mining
They are investing big money in mining farms in the less socialist/communist sorts of places.  I think they might be building in my state of Texas.  This is a GOOD THING.

5. Satellite
I am not sure how they plan to monetize this.  But it's just damn cool that you can be in any remote place on most of earth and get the blockchain live.  Cypherpunk af.

6. Jade
I already have enough h/w wallets.  But this one will (eventually) be able to sign transactions completely air-gapped.  It has a camera.  That alone is worth the $36 it costs.

7.  Their explorer
I trust this explorer more than one ones funded by Roger.  They are all security leaks, but I would rather run that one.  It has a TOR address.

8. Lightning
They are maintaining one of the three major implementations of lightning, and contributing to BOLT etc.  They also are doing dev to make it work on Liquid.

9. Bitcoin Dev
Schnorr/Taproot came via Maxwell (ex blockstream since he's too busy trolling big blocks on reddit with his 200k sockpuppets j/k), and was contributed to by lot's of core devs, but BS carried a lot of weight.

Anyway... I see them as a HUGE net plus for Bitcoin.  Are they trying to make money by establishing themselves as early as possible with protocols and applications that are needed by the public as well as enterprise?  Well of course they are!  That's how this SHOULD work.  Could they end up being a net negative?  Absolutely, and they should be shunned if that happens, but I do not see that currently.  Quite the opposite.

[Hueristic]

What does that mean? 

First thing that comes to my mind is Hump Day!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The CEO of BitCoin has spoken:

"With the first country in the world which implemented BitCoin as a legal tender I declare every strong volatility is 'strengstens verboten' from now on."

[Sign and Seal of the CEO of BitCoin]

Something about the misspelling of bitcoin like that really irks me, even for a joke... but frequently I do appreciate dweebs spelling bitcoin like that, and if they continue to spell it like that, even when they are called out (or asked to fix their spelling), and if they refuse to fix it, that is a pretty strong sign that they are disingenuous, likely NOT very smart about what is bitcoin and also likely butt hurt too.

…..

My no coiner brother recently texted me (when bitcoin around 50k)
“So looks like your Bit Coins are doing good huh?”
I was gonna correct his bitcoin spelling ignorance with my typical snarkiness but thought better if it,
and just replied with a stupid shit eating grin/$$ sign emoji.
I didn’t want to come of as an asshat know it all. ( even though I am…)

Of course, sometimes the balance will be more delicate with closer relatives - and then of course, if you have had a few interactions about the topic that can surely cause you to account for your history on the topic.

And, sometimes even with fairly close relatives (and ones that you communicate with on a regular basis), they might not even tell you if they may have taken a position, and surely if the market performs in one direction or another, they might decide to let you know.

I have already mentioned one of my relatives a few times who is really quite successful in terms of his career and his various traditional investments, and likely he really sees little to no reason for bitcoin - even though I had tried on him a few times.

Probably the first time was around the time in late 2014 (bitcoin around $385-ish) that I was informing quite a few relatives and friends about bitcoin, and so I sent out several e-mails and even ended up sending some bitcoin to several folks, and he was one of them that received $10 worth.. which was around 0.0261 BTC, and it must have been  one year or so that he would drop little quips here and there about how much his $10 was worth - which was tending to be lower than $10, and I am pretty sure that he had not bought any BTC... but he would get his little digs in here and there.

Then I recall going to eat with him in March/April 2016, and for some reason he ended up paying for part of my bill, and I told him that I would send him the quantity in bitcoin of $20, and he said o.k.  The price was around $424 at that time  I made some kind snarky remark, and I am not even sure if he acknowledged whether he still had the earlier $10 or not.. but I said that if he hangs onto these bitcoins for 5-10 years or more, he is likely to be very well off with such bitcoins, and the amount that I sent was somewhere around 0.0472 BTC.  He said o.k. no problem; he will take that into account.

I cannot recall if he made very many snarky remarks about bitcoin in late 2016 and into 2017, and so I was not sure if he might have been warming up to bitcoin a bit.. perhaps? perhaps?  I recall that he had said something about about buying and selling a bitcoin, and that may have been in late 2017.. . and presumably profitable.. maybe he bought around $3k or $4k and sold around $7k, so he was kind of resentful in missing out on more profits for a short period, and then when his spouse was suggesting to buy more in early 2018, he was saying that he is not going to buy higher than he sold and prices were around $11k or $12k.

 I recall around the end of May 2018, there was some kind of business deal being worked out between him and another relative in which I was going to end up receiving a product, and I was going to have to pay him $105.  After we went over the various ways that I could send value to him, we agreed that I would send him bitcoin, and the BTC price was around $7,400.  I recall lecturing him again in a kind of joking way to hang onto these bitcoins for a very long time and he will likely have very good price performance, but I don't recall going into details regarding how long.. but just suggesting several years at minimum.  He again said o.k. without much argument or debate.  So I sent him 0.01425 BTC, and I cannot recall having any interaction with him on the topic, but in early 2019, he had made some pretty strong statements that I had ended up hearing though his spouse that he was not very happy about bitcoin (except that he was able to write off some portion of what he had bought as a loss for his 2018 tax returns, and it was his ONLY investment in which he had lost), and I had said to his spouse that it seems ridiculous that he would not just have hung onto whatever bitcoin that he had because it could not have been very much in regards to his total investment portfolio.

So, surely a bit crazy with that particular relative, and I am thinking that he remains a nocoiner, and maybe remaining in a kind of bitter and hostile status, even though he must kind of know about it - but likely his financial circles are not painting bitcoin in a good light.. and he probably also has quite a few hesitancies in buying any kind of investment at a higher price than he had previously sold it.

Just my three small transactions to him of $10 (0.0261 BTC), $20 (0.0472 BTC) and $105 (0.01425 BTC)= $135 (0.08755 BTC) would now be worth about $3,371 (at $38,500), and would have been worth $5,682 at our $64,895 peak.. I am not saying that he would have gotten rich from those small amounts, but surely he would have been on the way of getting a BTC holdings of at least 0.21 BTC in order to fit into the anticipated upcoming elite.., and surely, I know that he had owned at least one bitcoin at one time, too... and surely he has enough money to buy a few bitcoins, right now, but they would be way more expensive now than they would have been in earlier days.. which may also contribute to some of his ongoing hostilities towards bitcoin.  I am thinking that he may have also dabbled a bit more without saying anything to me, but I still believe that I know the essence of his bitterness.. and his seemingly ongoing "just say no" approach to BTC.

Actually, I might be seeing him this weekend.. so it has been a bit since I had seen him, and surely bitcoin and even other world financial matters remain kind of interesting topics - even though he does own several properties and even flipped a few recently, so he is not really suffering as far as I can tell from my a bit distanced perspective.  Let's see if the topic comes up this weekend.. that is if I end up seeing him.

[philipma1957]

So diff and price are locked in a downwards trend.

What can break us out of this?

proudhon. where the fuck are you?

You rang?

yeah you are back!

40k+ by thursday morning

[vapourminer]

So diff and price are locked in a downwards trend.

What can break us out of this?

proudhon. where the fuck are you?

You rang?

yeah you are back!

40k+ by thursday morning

so, using maths and sciency thing type reasoning if proudhons mere typing of two words could cause a gain of over $1k in a day (its ~38.7k as i type) thats like 500 bucks a word!

proudhon.. we need a SPEECH.

[philipma1957]

The CEO of BitCoin has spoken:

"With the first country in the world which implemented BitCoin as a legal tender I declare every strong volatility is 'strengstens verboten' from now on."

[Sign and Seal of the CEO of BitCoin]

Something about the misspelling of bitcoin like that really irks me, even for a joke... but frequently I do appreciate dweebs spelling bitcoin like that, and if they continue to spell it like that, even when they are called out (or asked to fix their spelling), and if they refuse to fix it, that is a pretty strong sign that they are disingenuous, likely NOT very smart about what is bitcoin and also likely butt hurt too.

Your boy LFC_Bitcoin, taking in some culture @ Van Gogh interactive art exhibition in UK.

Reppin BTC mask, not impressed with the dump.

Whoaza.. you must surely be a true bitcoiner to have eyes like that in dee real life (irl).

Scary though.. just saying.

So downward diff is now in step with downward price.

Lets see how long they march together.

Are we expecting a mining death spiral?

Anyone?

Anyone?

So diff and price are locked in a downwards trend.

What can break us out of this?

proudhon. where the fuck are you?

Don't you have to zoom out a bit philip?

You seem to be repeating this same idea as if you are rooting for DOWNity.

In essence, I would say, who cares?  Let it play itself out, whether we are talking about one or two difficulty periods or whatever it takes.  Seems that bitcoin can handle this, and not even sure if BTC prices are going DOWNity yet or we may well just be experiencing a fake out.

Hopefully peeps are prepared for either BTC price direction... and sure flat is in there as well, but we just don't seem to have much preparations needed for flat, except perhaps just DCAing on a regular basis.. whether that is daily, weekly, bi-weekly or some other reasonable/convenient time period to be injecting more value into BTC and accumulating it (aka stacking sats).

It may well be prudent to also be a wee bit aggressive in making sure that you reasonably reach some kind of meaningful BTC accumulation goals, too.. think about the Michael Saylors of the world, they are not going to be waiting around for peeps like you to make sure that you acquire your $20 bitcoin per week, so if you can it may well be more reasonable and prudent to attempt some kind of DCA like $500 to $2k per week (if you can) depending upon how many BTC that you may already have and what might be your target BTC accumulation levels.  

For a starter BTC accumulation level think 1% to 10% of your investment portfolio as being a good beginning allocation into BTC, but of course there is a need to individually tailor too..... so if you do not know shit, then think 1% to 10% as you study your own situation and then figure out where you would like to be in terms of accounting for your various individual specifics, to the extent that you are able to do so... and surely also having a reasonable beginning target BTC accumulation level can at least get some no coiner (and under-allocated precoiner) peeps started.

I don’t know what to expect. But at 5 cent power  all gear built from 2017 on turns a profit.

and yet it is being turned off.

I know this may be short term maybe for June July August.

but seeing the mining gear drop is a bit weird.

I dont quite understand the why of it.

In the summer my house has 17 cent power .

I can run a s17 at 2000 watts or about .17 x 24 x 2 = $8.50 rounding upwards

it earns 55 x .26 = $ 14.30

this means 8.5/14.30 x 38000 = $22587 a bitcoin with 17 cent power.

if I have 10 cent power

.10 x 50kwatts = 5.00

or 5.00/14.30 x 38000 = 13286 bitcoin

so why the hash drop never mind that

5 cent power and an s17 means ½ or 6643 a bitcoin.

So no one with 5 cent power is going to shut off gear as he gets his btc at 6643
and no one with 10 cent power is going to shut off gear as he gets his btc at 13286

yet people are shutting down gear.

So naturally I will follow this.

For me it is a double edge sword. I am positioned to play it both ways. But I am trying to figure is it simple as the chinese gov flexing muscle. or are there more factors.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

2. Liquid.  
This is still a sleeper.  I think the power of a federated settlement layer on top of BTC is not yet grokked by the masses.

I took a pretty deep look into it once and concluded there's no real reason not to use Liquid to cheaply move around BTC. I would rather leave it in on-chain BTC form for storage purposes but Liquid is great for moving it around... just needs more exchange support (Bitfinex and one or two other exchanges currently support it).

3. Liquid assets.  
Ethereum is a train wreck.  

Maybe. But then why would Samson Mow agree to advise an Ethereum shit token? His whole Twitter celebrity is based around trashing Ethereum, then he takes 100,000 shittokens to shill what turned out to be trash... goes back to unironically trashing Ethereum, basically undeterred by what just happened...  

Here's the chart of INX, the project Mow worked as "advisor" for (he's no longer listed as an advisor on the website):

(image redacted)

As you can see, a few months after distribution (the year after this SEC filing), there was a huge dump from which this project will never recover. Everyone who ever invested in this apparent scam is sitting on a loss.

Nobody should be taking Mow seriously. Same goes for Adam Back who unfortunately came to his defense in the matter on at least a few occasions.

They are bright people but also occasionally full of shit for the sake of furthering their own financial interest.

[Biodom]

Sorry, that's a wrong "INX" (INMax vs INX Ltd-which was controversial).
What a stupid name, anyway.
The one he worked on (INX_Ltd, don't know the ticket symbol)- is not trading yet, imho

OT: Mow's INX is this one:
https://www.coindesk.com/inx-wraps-openfinance-acquisition

Could be a stillborn company anyway...

[vapourminer]

if I have 10 cent power

.10 x 50kwatts = 5.00

or 5.00/14.30 x 38000 = 13286 bitcoin

so why the hash drop never mind that

5 cent power and an s17 means ½ or 6643 a bitcoin.

So no one with 5 cent power is going to shut off gear as he gets his btc at 6643
and no one with 10 cent power is going to shut off gear as he gets his btc at 13286

yet people are shutting down gear.

So naturally I will follow this.

For me it is a double edge sword. I am positioned to play it both ways. But I am trying to figure is it simple as the chinese gov flexing muscle. or are there more factors.

im behind on the china thing so maybe this is way off.. but anyway if this is related to that ban thing..

so if china outright bans mining that means that gear goes somewhere, assuming the gov doesnt just take it and mine for themselves. so with corruption etc gears gonna kinda diffuse through chinas borders via trucks, trunks of cars or tied under sheep as it aint gonna just sit around gathering dust. so how long to disappear and reappear some significant chunk of currently-in-china gear to mining friendly nations and get that missing hash back online?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

What does that mean? 

First thing that comes to my mind is Hump Day!

OK Guys, That's just CrEePy!!!

That's Wednesday!

Next you're gonna be talking about doing It! Ewww!

[nutildah]

Sorry, that's a wrong "INX" (INMax vs INX Ltd-which was controversial).
What a stupid name, anyway.
The one he worked on (INX_Ltd, don't know the ticket symbol)- is not trading yet, imho

OT: Mow's INX is this one:
https://www.coindesk.com/inx-wraps-openfinance-acquisition

Could be a stillborn company anyway...

Good catch, I take that part back.

[mikeywith]

so if china outright bans mining that means that gear goes somewhere, assuming the gov doesnt just take it and mine for themselves.

According to one of the Chinese miners I know, the government wants to tax the electricity used for mining, as funny as it may sound the government told miners in some regions to shut down for a while until the new electricity law gets implemented, so far the rumors are 10% tax on power, which isn't large by any means.

But regardless, all of the mining gears will have to find another home, it's only a matter of time before everything gets plugged in, I personally think the whole China news is irrelevant and that the market price could not care less.

The price has been overextended for months, if you follow my posts in the mining post I have been telling people not to buy over-priced mining gears because that price was not sustainable and a huge drop will have to come, I don't take credit for it because I have no invited the wheel, anyone who understands the basics of the markets understands that, but some people think everything is just random.

Now my projection for the price is that we did indeed hit the bottom of the correction or at least came very very close to it, all those 5k and 15k calls are likely going to go with the wind, I, however, do not believe that will go straight up, this will probably be one of the longest bear traps in bitcoin's recent history, we could very possibility extend the cycle for another year, people who are expecting 100k this year will probably be wrong, I hope that I am wrong, but I can't think of any other scenario except a for a boring market that will take months to change, regardless of what China, Elon or Trump has to say about bitcoin.

[cAPSLOCK]

Sorry, that's a wrong "INX" (INMax vs INX Ltd-which was controversial).
What a stupid name, anyway.
The one he worked on (INX_Ltd, don't know the ticket symbol)- is not trading yet, imho

OT: Mow's INX is this one:
https://www.coindesk.com/inx-wraps-openfinance-acquisition

Could be a stillborn company anyway...

Good catch, I take that part back.

I totally agree with you on the two faced bit.