What does that mean?
First thing that comes to my mind is Hump Day!
OK Guys, That's just CrEePy!!!
That's Wednesday!
Next you're gonna be talking about doing It! Ewww!
'
Baaaaawwwbbbb
We got one for you.
Likely gonna needs the rusty-pipe treatment or maybe some other variation that would be within your discretion.
#nohomo... or maybe in this case.. exceptions are made.The price has been overextended for months, if you follow my posts in the mining post I have been telling people not to buy over-priced mining gears because that price was not sustainable and a huge drop will have to come, I don't take credit for it because I have no invited the wheel, anyone who understands the basics of the markets understands that, but some people think everything is just random.
Surely, bitcoin prices are not random. We have some seemingly currently valid BTC price prediction models that give us some pretty damned decent indications of where BTC prices are most likely to go, even though surely nothing is guaranteed.
It is hard to disagree with your characterization of "overextended" BTC prices at least when we had seen such a considerable amount of BTC price increase from September to mid April of 6.5x and really without any kind of meaningful or lasting correction, so in that regard, claims to being a wee bit over extended do sound reasonable, in retrospect.. since we are in the midst of what is seeming like a pretty meaningful correction now..
We might say nearly a month of correction, so far... and surely pretty severe to get a 53% correction.. so surely, we might have been due for something like what we are experiencing, and in that regard, we should not be surprised to hang around down here in a kind of deep correction zone for a while.. ..; but who knows? Difficult to know if the correction is done yet or not.
Now my projection for the price is that we did indeed hit the bottom of the correction or at least came very very close to it, all those 5k and 15k calls are likely going to go with the wind,
Surely $5k to $15k does seem a bit extreme, but we know that extreme things can happen.. even though currently the odds for even below $20k are seeming quite low.. and surely the bottom of $30,066 could be "in" but still we remain in pretty damned close striking distance ($38,800 as I type), so hard to really rest assured about the bottom being "in", even though maybe I would feel a wee bit more comfortable resting assured if we could get the BTC price above $46k, and I would feel even MOAR better if we could get the BTC price over $50k.. and surely to kind of seem to have some legs of UPpity, more than just crossing above $46k or $50k and then dropping back down to lower $40ks or upper $30ks soon thereafter.
I, however, do not believe that will go straight up,
Going straight up is not very common, but jeez it does happen from time to time. remember April to June 2019.. whoaza!!!! We had 3.5x from $4,200 to $13,880 in just 3 months.. .. that is kind of like straight up.. so I would not completely rule out some kind of modified or moderated version like that happening, because we surely have some circumstances in and around bitcoin that could very well contribute to such a happening.... and do I need to list them?
I do get some sense that maybe a bit of a shitcoin purging of froth, just prior to a 2x or so in bitcoin would be a more healthy way of contemplating some "straight up" happenings in bitcoin even if we might not see anything greater than 2x in 3 months... but jeez a bit of purgening of a few shitcoins might help some of the understanding..... and do I need to name the frothy shitcoins, defi projects or NFTs even though there had been a wee bit of purgening of froth already, but they could use a bit more and that would be healthy for the whole space to allow the market to give us some stronger signs regarding who is dee indisputable king daddy... quite a few peeps seem confused about that.
this will probably be one of the longest bear traps in bitcoin's recent history,
I have heard that before.
I suppose if we look at 2013, we could say that the 2013 beartrap lasted from April to September/October, so are we going to have a longer bear trap than that? I have my doubts, but surely not out of the realm of possibilities... As long as you are not overly preparing for such a scenario, it does not sound unreasonable, even if it comes off as a bit pessimistic - but may well be necessary in order to purge some shitcoins and also there are probably some weakhands too that might need some purging too.. even though I personally suspect most of the need for purgenings remains in the shitcoins rather than in bitcoin.. and that is my sense of the matter.. and not even really a new sense of the matter.. so even I recognize and appreciate that shitcoins might not get purged during our next upcoming BTC pumpening...
we could very possibility extend the cycle for another year,
I have no problem with having the peak of this cycle coming at the end of 2022 rather than the end of 2021 and still being within reasonable parameters of various ongoing credible bitcoin price prediction models, including 1) the stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.
people who are expecting 100k this year will probably be wrong, I hope that I am wrong,
You probably are wrong, but surely there is a chance that we might not see $100k in 2021.
None of us should be overly presumptuous about either UPpity or cycles, and each of us who are investing in BTC should be prepared that it could take 4 years or longer to get back to profitability from any time that we are investing money into BTC... so even now, if we were to buy BTC at $38,800-ish, we should be prepared to hold that investment for at least 4 years, and the longer the better.
but I can't think of any other scenario except a for a boring market that will take months to change,
We are in a battle mikeywith. Have you heard about that?
In other words, boring is not very likely, especially given the place where we are at, currently.
regardless of what China, Elon or Trump has to say about bitcoin.
You are correct.. bitcoin gives no shits about various single factor entities (even if they may well have a following, they are popular, they are rich, they can torture you by running you over with a tank, etc) what they think or what they do, and even if these various single factor entities combine their forces, bitcoin still gives few if any shits.
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