Next Chartbuddy needs to be $36K
Define "needs to be"
First, a number of charts indicating the idea that the market is not in bear market territory (yet) but 'in between' bull and bear. Time will tell whether the coin flips to bear or remains in bull.
Fuck the charts.
We are in a bull market, for now..
So fuck the flipping of coins too.
In other words, we are in a bull market, until we are not.
In other words, we might be in a bear market tomorrow.. but we are not currently. Go tell your mom on me.
Will $35k prove a correction in a bull market or is it the precursor of a bear market?
Huh? We got down to $30,066, so far. this ($33,337) is like the third or so subsequent attempt to test $30,066 support.
Regarding your question... We are still in a bull market... there is no such thing as a "precursor" to a bear market - unless we look at the matter after the fact, and then we can say: "that was a precursor to a bear market," but right now, we are currently in a bull market..
(again, until we are not)This is the big gamble at this point. The Great Decide.
Huh? Not that big of a gamble.
If you are new to bitcoin, then you just start buying and you establish a position.
If you have been in bitcoin for a while, then you have to figure out your own situation in terms of whether you HODL right now.. or buy more or whatever...
Other than DCA strategies, I would not recommend a novice investor to take out a large position at this point.
Usually it is not good to take out a large position. However, let's say for example if a newbie has $12k available right now to buy bitcoin and the same person has a cashflow that provides $6k over then next 6 months that could be invested in bitcoin, then what would you recommend? Personally, I recommend the same thing as I always recommend. Divide the $12k stash into three and buy $4k right away, and set the other 2/3 up for DCA and buying on dips. With the other $6k of cashflow, that would likely get injected into DCA and buying on dips, so perhaps knowing that another $6k is coming in, then there might be a question about whether to go up to $6k (rather than $4k with the initial lump sum investing amount - that is $18k divided by 3 rather than $12k divided by 3).
So?
What you gonna do? Sit here and whine about whether we might be in a bear market or a bull market and question the matter and inadequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity?
Answer: hell no.
You are going to create an individually tailored plan that hopefully makes sure that you are adequately prepared both psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction.
First, let the market tell us what the further direction will be (bull or bear).
Again: hell no. What you believe about the market is ONLY one part of the formula.. you better figure out some other shit first, including but not limited to your cash flow, other investments, view about bitcoin as compared to other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and ability to learn, plan, strategize and employ strategies, while tweaking from time to time based on information learned.
The 'in between' narrative is illustrated in the next few charts, taken from glassnode.
1. Mayer Multiple
The Mayer Multiple had a nice peak and went down. But it hasn't truly bottomed like in previous great bottoms. Not a true long term buy signal at this moment.
2. MVRV Ratio
MVRV ratio not giving a long term buy signal. It's in between.
3. NVT Price
NVT is signalling a bottom. However, please note that this chart only starts from July 2017 and, looking at the 2018 bear, a bottom signal may also be a precursor to an ensuing bear market. NVT cannot be used as a sole indicator on the Great Decide.
4. VWAP Ratio
VWAP in the 2017 bull run showed a nice jagged pattern within a defined band all the way to the top. In 2021, the band may of course be higher but the comparison with 2017 gives that indefinite feeling again. The Great Decide.
5. Price Models
Looking at the price models. touching the purple line was the big bottom in a cycle. The purple line stands at $10,xxx
But that would also be the theoretical line in the sand. Notice that true bear markets saw the blue line crossing the yellow line downwards. We are not there yet. It would take many months before this potential signal could alarm us of bear market trouble.
In short, no true signal from this chart (yet) other than painting potential min and max $$ prices.
6. Hypothetical projection - repeat 2018 bear
I will admit: nice charts - including your quickie summary of each.
This leads me to a projection. The projection is mainly based on the idea of averages. The averages can tell us where Bitcoin is on a binary scale: overvalued or undervalued. Assuming that Bitcoin's true value is still increasing, investing in Bitcoin is still a good choice on the long term. But timing your entry right can mean the difference between a big win and a massive win.
Fuck that law of averages nonsense, Wekkel. There is a need to appreciate the unique aspect angle of bitcoin including a likely scenario that we are in the midst of the largest transfers of wealth in history.
Another angle that should be accounted for when attempting to figure out how much weight to give to your various charts would be to account for the various currently valid BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects. Sure, you might end up coming to similar conclusions, but you still better be attempting to incorporate currently valid BTC price prediction models into your weighting of those various charts.
The idea of the chart is that big bottoms in a cycle occur in an area far below the purple line. The purple line (in the 3Day chart) is currently at $20,000.
We have seen that the Bitcoin markets have plenty of speculative money in them + derivative trading. What goes up big time, can also go down big time. Especially in times of fear.
The assumption underlying the chart is that the current financial markets move along until something breaks. That's how it usually goes. A bank going bust, a large company is marked junk. It could be anything that suddenly breaks the markets. Stonks slide, yields go down and everything is sold in order to obtain cold hard cash.
The FED and other CBs step in and 'save the day' by printing even more money. After the panic subsides, market participants jump back in with both hands on the waves of yet another Great Reflation.
I take this as the default scenario.
The chart is essentially about extending the moving averages based on the 2018-2019 bear market (copy/paste). Extend and duration will probably not match the future; it's just an 'what if' exploration. For instance, the March 2020 panic will probably remain an outlier.
The chart gives me confidence:
- even in a major downturn - a Bitcoin bear market and/or the GFC 202x occurring - price is not expected go lower than approx 50% from here
- with nothing fundamentally changed to the long term Bitcoin growth drivers, buying a bit at this price point is fine
- this is the worst case scenario for me. Working through this period will probably take less time
This last section of your analysis is definitely fair... So cannot really disagree with anything that you are saying in terms of the possibility of another 50% drop from here.. because surely that is possible, and surely less likely if we happen to be in a bull market, but still being in a bull market can come to an end.. so then we would no longer be in a bull market, and sure 50% from here is within reasonable reach (even if at the moment, as I type this responsive post, it seems to be a long shot).
By the way, the 208-week moving average is currently just above $13k, so usually that 208-week moving average is not very reachable except for during bear markets or extreme short term BTC price spikes to the downside. The 208-week moving average is continuing to move UPpity, but it is not moving as quickly UPpity while we are in this $30k to $40k price range as compared to when we were in the $50ks and $60ks...
In any event, sure we will see what happens in terms of short-to-medium BTC price direction.... so surely how many coins you have.. could be a definite starting out factor in terms of attempting to figure out the extent to which to employ any lump summing into the way forward, and surely the devil could well be in the details.. about how much cash might currently be available and ongoing cashflows too along side with other personal factors - which now I am just inclining (or should we say devolving?) towards repeating myself.
Poll
