Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Oshosondy]

I like Microstrategy, after all the whole bear market, the company still bought 13,005 BTC at an average price of $37,617 for a combined total of about $489 million.

[modrobert]

I have sent an email to the "Wallet of Satoshi" support asking if there's a way to get "permanent receive address" which can take more than one payment, and also how long these Lightning addresses last. Waiting for reply.

Got reply...

When it comes to normal Lightning Invoices, that is not possible as they are one-use only.
The Invoices we generate in Wallet of Satoshi have an expiry time of 24 hours.
(That is configurable at the node level so some other services invoices may be less or more).

There are a couple of solutions on the protocol level in the works for the use case you mentioned, but unsure about how far away they are.

For something that works right now, tippin.me is a good service where you have a unique url and it generates a new 0-amount invoice each time you refresh the page.
When you have built up some tips you could then withdraw them all in one go to your wallet.
Good thing is that it's all on the lightning network so fees are extremely low.

Apparently tippin.me works similar to lnbits.com, haven't tested (yet), both supporting LNURLp (as tested here).

[JayJuanGee]

...

This leads me to a projection. The projection is mainly based on the idea of averages. The averages can tell us where Bitcoin is on a binary scale: overvalued or undervalued. Assuming that Bitcoin's true value is still increasing, investing in Bitcoin is still a good choice on the long term. But timing your entry right can mean the difference between a big win and a massive win.

The idea of the chart is that big bottoms in a cycle occur in an area far below the purple line. The purple line (in the 3Day chart) is currently at $20,000.

We have seen that the Bitcoin markets have plenty of speculative money in them + derivative trading. What goes up big time, can also go down big time. Especially in times of fear.

The assumption underlying the chart is that the current financial markets move along until something breaks. That's how it usually goes. A bank going bust, a large company is marked junk. It could be anything that suddenly breaks the markets. Stonks slide, yields go down and everything is sold in order to obtain cold hard cash.

The FED and other CBs step in and 'save the day' by printing even more money. After the panic subsides, market participants jump back in with both hands on the waves of yet another Great Reflation.

I take this as the default scenario.

The chart is essentially about extending the moving averages based on the 2018-2019 bear market (copy/paste). Extend and duration will probably not match the future; it's just an 'what if' exploration. For instance, the March 2020 panic will probably remain an outlier.

The chart gives me confidence:

• even in a major downturn - a Bitcoin bear market and/or the GFC 202x occurring - price is not expected go lower than approx 50% from here
• with nothing fundamentally changed to the long term Bitcoin growth drivers, buying a bit at this price point is fine
• this is the worst case scenario for me. Working through this period will probably take less time

I have come to the same conclusion.  But arrived at it using mining data.

Best miner does about 30 watts a th

so a th earns 22 cents

lets say I have 100 of them

100 x .22 = 22 dollars a day

30 watts x 100 = 3000 or 3 kwatts or 72 kwatts a day


at 5 cents =  3.60


22.00- 3.60 = 18.4   that is  0.000555 btc


or 1/0.000555  = a factor of  1801.80

1 = 1 btc

to earn 1 btc a day
 
1801 x 3.60 = 6483 in power  

while it seems way under the 15000 number for the low it neglects costs of your building your internet your wiring and your miners

A s19 went for 6000 at Bitmain it has a 2-3  year life on average so it cost 8.22 a day to own it. use 8.22 x 1801 you get 14,804

so 14,804 + 6483 = 21,287  which is well over 15k

but s19 also went for 3000 at bitmain
that means 4.21 a day to own

or 7,402 + 6483 = 13885 which is under 15k

the cost of the s19 is base on 2 year not 3 year.

I get 21,287+13885 = 35172/2 = 17586 fairly close to his 15k number.

I do suspect the life span to be over 2 and under 3 years. which means that 17586 is a bit high but not off by much remarkable that it is so close to his 15k number.  Since the way to get the number is very different.


So basically for mining a btc I get true cost close to 15-18k .

I mentioned earlier that this is different than 2018 here is why.

2017 12/31 diff = 2.60th
2018 01/31 diff = 3.01th
2018 02/28 diff = 3.46th
2018 03/31 diff = 4.02th
2018 04/30 diff = 4.31th
2018 05/31 diff = 5.08th
2018 06/30 diff = 5.95th
2018 07/31 diff = 6.73th
2018 08/31 diff = 7.15th
2018 09/30 diff = 7.45th.

2018 10/30 diff = 7.18th

so with faltering prices the diff rose 9 months in a row

that is not true right now.  

and this means it is different this time

"fact not conjecture"

Just not sure what will happen. Due to this fundamental difference in mining profit.

Even though you are asserting that you are not sure which way the BTC price is going to go, you are giving a decent amount of weight to considerations that BTC price might give shits about mining costs.  I have my doubts, but sure, on the margins all kinds of factors are at play.. just hate to be giving too much weight to any one (or narrow set) of factors.

I already responded to some of my concerns about how feckle Wekkel had arrived at his above conclusions, and I suppose several of my comments would apply to responding to your assessments, too, philip.

Next Chartbuddy needs to be $36K

Define "needs to be"

Having BTFD, for my short term gratification it "needs to be" uppity up

Can't really argue with that way of putting the matter.

We can cry together.


 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Chinese miners crackdown, energy FUD, Goldman Sachs shorting, stock market tanking and dragging Bitcoin down with it.

Crazy how sentiment changed so quickly.

Is goldman shorting bitcoin?

around the U.S. open corn was dumped out of the market like sh*t. so some technical oriented guys gave up.

looks like more sideways now. rally is delayed because it seems they don't want to have the corn to expensive to still fill their pockets at least until end of August.

Proof: yesterday someone posted that but deleted it just afterwards. but Eagleeye was faster.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/18/bitcoin-goldman-sachs-ramps-up-trading-in-partnership-with-mike-novogratz-galaxy-digital.html

I was the one who deleted it to spare negativity.

This sucks but we can't do nothing about it besides waiting for the rebound. Saw great indicators it wil happen but it has been postponed for now.

I would go with the longer the sideways and delay, the higher the next ATH. If we turn bullish now, I am sure we be stuck at 60k again. Bitcoin has to become boring for some time. Hope is September to take momentum again. But would be even better to resume parabolic bull market next year. Have to wait another year for 1 BTC = 1 Aventador.

I have my doubts any time that I hear that king daddy has to do x, y or z..

king daddy has to go down before up

king daddy has to go sideways for a while

I doubt king daddy gives too many shits, and it could be that if there are enough peeps betting on DOWNity or even sideways  (sideways betters are not very good in terms of leverage betting), then fuel might start to exist.. but whether such fuel would be used might be another question...

More purgening of shitcoins, anyone?  Don't know?  Do shitcoins have pep in their step?  Sure some of them do.  Don't know how it connects, but sometimes the purgening of shitcoins could be an additional irritating factor that is wished to be less of a consideration..

It's quite sad that Elon tweeting about bitcoin and tesla accepting bitcoin for their cars had a bigger impact on price than a country turning it into real currency, like wtf.

To be honest, many people don't regard El Salvador et al as a real country.

Yeah right.   

Let's ask Arriemoller for a representation regarding what "many people" regard.

Probably the last person I would ask, if I wanted anything close to accurate.

 

I am not sure if we are still in a bull or bear-a coin toss.

hahahaha

Yeah what else is new.

You have been unsure if we are in a bull market or a bear market like forever.

It's like you ongoingly push bear nonsense talking points but act like you want the BTC price to go up.

It's your schtick and sooner or later you are surely going to be right.

This market cycle was characterized by two front-running (that were ahead of S2F) waves of 2019 and 2020-2021 .
Maybe they are now front-running the bear earlier than expected.

Front running of the bear market is surely a plausible possibility, but it still is a minority likelihood in the whole scheme of things, so hopefully you and udder peeps are not failing and refusing to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity because you are assigning too high of odds to such a scenario that you are wishing for (while saying that you are not wishing for it).

TL;DR A coin toss between a bull and a bear;

There's no fucking coin toss, you dweeb.

We are in a bull market.. until we are not... and currently we are in a bull market.. so get over your coin tossing nonsense, you tosser.

I will note that I proclaim 50/50 assertions on a very regular basis in regards to short term BTC price direction, but that is not the same as proclaiming that it is 50/50 regarding whether we are in a bear market of a bull market.. because if you are proclaiming bull/bear market to be 50/50 then you are failing/refusing to give proper weight to ongoing and currently valid BTC prediction theories of stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.

raised funds from alts, ready to deploy to bitcoin (at least 90%) when I am ready. If current bear reverses back to bull soonish, then I will ladder to the upside faster.

Does not hurt to have some fiat.  Each of us would likely benefit by always being prepared for either BTC price direction, and surely sometimes we are going to come to differing assessments regarding the circumstances to deploy our fiat and how much to deploy under varying scenarios that may or may not end up playing out.

[philipma1957]

...


Can't really argue with that way of putting the matter.

We can cry together.


 

I am simply saying this time it is different.

Now does that mean much no.  But it is different.

I am fortunate in that I can stack btc and sell the other profitable mining for the time being.
I am not the only miner in the world with paid off gear that is able to continue mining at a profit.
And any miner like me can sell  the coins mined with the following letters

E..
L..
D...

while holding his BTC mined.

This makes me think that BTC is getting support from miners such as myself.

My profits do not drop as quickly as the price is dropping since the difficulty drops are offsetting the price drops.

Here is a case.

dec 2017 price 20k diff 2.6

sept 2018 price 6.4k diff 7.45



Apr 2021 price  64k    diff 23.5

June 2021 price 32k   diff 19.9 soon to be 16.5


I have zero idea of what these numbers mean in 2-3 months but they mean for me right now as a miner that holding the btc is not hard to do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I'm staying a little on the sidelines recently. Life calls and all. Seeing some dodgy price action with unexplicable - artificial? - drops and a few recoveries. Just don't poke her: she knows her way.

And how does that make you fffffeeeeewwwwlll

depressed, yet?

 

My btc projection number is higher than Wekkel's-I don't expect us to go lower than 19-20K (they might try to push it below prior ATH for giggles).

I smell a nocoiner that sold his bitcoins at 19k.

Why does anyone belief its gonna drop just because we are lower and consolidating ... ? Few weeks back same people where aiming for 70-80-90-100K short-middle term, just normal market behavior imo.

Going lower is always a part of the story but why does everyone suddenly think when we have 50% drop that another 50% is gonna happen?

I see hard coiners disappoint me from time to time and probably a lot of people are getting emotionally while they think they don't etc...
At the end of the story, we are all just humans, tough I expect the highest level of HODL-DIAMOND hands from people with my activity and more....

Btw I also do hope for moon every sec,  but I do ride the waves when they are here...

Look at difficulty dropping.

this is the opposite of what happened from Jan 2018 to Sept 2018.

the difficulty was up at the end of every month as price was dropping.

This time the difficulty is dropping as price is dropping.

Yeah we could say it is the lack of chips so no new gear.

But this is a new pattern.

Which could mean a new price pattern will evolve in the next two- three months.

You seem to be attempting to put too much weight on some potentially perilous decisions that miners have to make concerning their profitability or lack thereof, but bitcoin gives no shits..

In udder words, miners have to adapt to dee king daddy, not the other way around.

If they find it profitable, then mine.. .

If they don't find it profitable, then don't mine

The difficulty will adjust every two weeks in order that they can recalculate in case such difficulty adjustment may well make any difference (on the margins) in terms of which way such miners were leaning.

[bitcoinPsycho]

@JJG

cry???who's crying? certainly not me   

[shahzadafzal]

The first person to quote this post get to choose the new poll.

Go! 

mememememe



Ps.. do I count as a "person"?  #justasking

So where are we on the poll? Are we HODLING this too?

[El duderino_]

Staying above page parity please

[cAPSLOCK]

Staying above page parity please

Don't even talk like that!  Of course it's staying above page parity!

(I hope haha)

[marcus_of_augustus]

Chicoms bitcoin FUD working again?? you got to be shitting me right??

when are the idiots going to get past sucking on chinky commie dick?

it's fucking pathetic and more embarrassing than having an imbecile, demented geriatric chicom stooge in the White House

c'mon bitcoiners can do better than this surely.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Chicoms bitcoin FUD working again?? you got to be shitting me right??

when are the idiots going to get past sucking on chinky commie dick?

it's fucking pathetic and more embarrassing than having an imbecile, demented geriatric chicom stooge in the White House

c'mon bitcoiners can do better than this surely.

Spot on.

I admit I hate it when the price dumps & I might even panic, depending how bad it gets at times. But I have never once, in over 7 years, sold a single sat because of FUD.

If you didn’t sell in the 50k - 64k range then why the hell sell now, it’s beyond ridiculous.

[Hhampuz]

Strength in numbers and all that, china always had a big following for Bitcoin so not too surprising that China fud hits the hardest.

Probably hard to imagine, but if you are a citizen there it's possibly scary on levels we could not comprehend. idk

[JayJuanGee]

Remember @jjg taking issue with myself saying that it is "stalled" with misplaced pontifications of his/hers.

Yes.. thanks for the reminder Biodom about your previous dumb-ass statements.  It's not the first time that you had made dumb-ass statements, so kind of getting used to it.. no problema.  Anyhow, at first you denied making the "we are stalled" statement because the facts did not really add up, but then when it seemed to have become kind of true, then you embraced your dumb-ass statement full-heartedly (or should I say foolheartedly?).

One thing you are good for, Biodom, and that is... humor.


 

It not only stalled, but declined a good 40% since then.

Hm?  

Well, I suppose you could be better off with a proclamation that we are "stalled" currently, but there surely would be some problems with that too.. even though the BTC price has been moving around between mostly $30k and $40k for about a month, but I would even find some difficulties in characterizing such current activities as "stalled."  But whatever, you can say whatever you want to say.. it's a free country.... wait..

It's too bad I did not sell almost any at 50-55.

Well too bad..

Sucks to be you.  Doesn't it?

 

When having any doubts hodling:


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238.msg2004#msg2004

Something to note down...

- Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency
- Nodes based on the CPU Power

Yes ... exactly.

When satoshi used the word "cryptocurrency" in 2010, we knew what the fuck he was talking about, right?

Was there any ambiguity?

Don't give into the use of crypto or cryptocurrency too quickly shahzadafzal unless you recognize what the fuck the person using the term is saying or trying to say.

If they are being amorphous about it, or they are failing and refusing (perhaps purposefully?) to clarify the position of bitcoin as compared to shitcoins, then it is likely to your advantage to NOT be so god damned complacent about the use of such term.. even though it is accurate it can be ambiguous as fuck when used by shitcoiners and disingenuine dweebs.. similar to the term blockchain, yet perhaps even more ambiguous these days because all kinds of bullshit is lumped into the term cryptocurrency that had not been lumped into the term blockchain... think about various aspects of Defi and various aspects of NFTs, for example... and also think of some stable coins that might not even rise to the level of being a blockchain.. just some managed project in a database.

@JJG

cry???who's crying? certainly not me  

That sucks.

Well, I guess you abandoned me, then.

I am going to have to cry all by my lil selfie.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

This is fine

[JayJuanGee]

Damn what happened, I bought way more BTC than expected, with that drop triggering buy orders !

I will need to sell some back when it goes up, almost nothing left in the fiat bag. My bank accounts feel a bit empty.

Congrats Toxic !

Frequently shit happens, and you should be paying attention so that you do not end up getting traumatized by such happenings when they do happen to happen (or alternatively if they do not end up happening to happen).

I can't wait till the chinese fuck off entirely. I've been wishing that for 5 years though so will probably never happen.

You are right.

Not going to happen, so I remain unsure why you (or anyone else) would be wishening for such a thing unless just like to live in a fantasy world rather than our real world.   

A thing not seen since previous bull market is the big green dildo's after dumps.
Market seems to move slower

Constant FUD, not getting a chance.

Patience young padawans.

[El duderino_]

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