Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.

[cAPSLOCK]

OK.  What the hell?  I really like Tradingview, and there are some gems of shadetree analysis on there.  Some really interesting ideas and insights.  But WHY, WHY, WHY does ANYONE think shit like this is useful at all?

This guy is one of the top follows on there.  What the heck is wrong with people?

He needs to come sit under the zen feet of Toxic for a while and learn about ducks diving for salamanders and things like that.

[JayJuanGee]

A quick question from the OGs.
I have $4000 in USDT.

Should I buy BTC now for all of that or wait?
Not sure what to do with that. 

When you are considering investing more into bitcoin (presuming you already own some BTC) you need to consider lumpsum, dca and buying on dips... so how much of your $4k to plug into each or any of those categories would depend on if you have any money already dedicated in those categories... .

Furthermore, you need to consider your whole situation including your cashflow, how much you already have in bitcoin (which you seem to have already decided that you want $4k more to be in bitcoin), your other investments, your view of bitcoin compared with other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance, and your time, abilities to plan, learn and adjust your BTC portfolio along the way, if at all,.. presumably investing at least 4 years, no?

In other words, just market buy now... might help the rest of us to get a 5-minute pump.   

I've just bought for 500€ and I will keep doing that DCA each month until I retire. My advise for bigger sums is to divide them at least in 3 parts and buying now with the first part. In case the price falls enough, fire the next buy and so on.

You cannot just retire early, ivomm?

I am going to create a hypothetical that is not necessarily meant to be your situation, but let's say for example you have a pension that is $50k per year and it has a bunch of other perks that cause it to go up another 50% , so it is really worth around $75k per year of already earned money once your retirement date comes, so you do not feel comfortable leaving that on the table, but you have a BTC stash that is something like 100BTC, so you feel pretty good about the BTC having a current value of $3.3 million (income of $132k) ($33k BTC prices), and currently with BTC volatility uncertainties, you might want to value the BTC ONLY at the 208-week moving average of $13,333 - so therefore only $1.33 million (income of $53.2k).

But if BTC prices were to go up to $500k and then correct back down to $100k, at some point the 208-week moving average is going to move up to $100k too.. and that would cause some amount of certainty that your BTC stash is worth several multiples in excess of the pension that you might end up leaving on the table, no?  In other words, valuing BTC at $100k would cause a $10 million BTC portfolio value (income of $400k).  At some point, the pension would start to seem like peanuts compared to the value of freedom, no?

I understand that some people still do get some pleasures from their jobs, but there is a breaking point at some price point, too, no?  Those breaking points need to be considered no, whether it is having assurances of 2x the salary, 10x the salary or 50x the salary?  or some other breaking point to cause a desire to split away from current job duties and activities or maybe just renegotiate the terms, perhaps?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[WaltKitty]

I've just bought for 500€ and I will keep doing that DCA each month until I retire. My advise for bigger sums is to divide them at least in 3 parts and buying now with the first part. In case the price falls enough, fire the next buy and so on.

I have already bought worth $10k in 3 Months.
I will follow your technique. Thank you!

The number of USDTs irrelevant. What matters is how significant that amount is for you and what's your tolerance for risk. Is that your life savings? Or just some pocket change left over from buying a lambo last week? And how badly would you mindrust yourself if you lost half of it overnight?

Thank you for making me view it from an interesting viewpoint.

I will continue with DCA however I feel myself overbuying which might be a problem 

Don’t listen to both of them until the Dude has spoken, my point of view …. All in especially if it’s already in USDT, I prefer my wealth in BTC at any time and especially over USDT …. If it’s already converted from fiat to crypto, then HODL the right one as a MAIN rule

Also if it’s already in USDT then it’s purpose is investing it and not needing it for daily things “I think” …. So ALL ASAP

Listening to advice on a maximalist Bitcoin forum is OK in my opinion but I think you need to make up your own mind when it comes to financial investments. Trust your feeling's Luke. What I mean is maybe buy a nice fat stack of satoshi's with say a quarter of your fiat available for the warm fuzzy feeling it gives you and break the rest into smaller DCA portion's until that over-invested feeling dissipates to a manageable level. After several of these "hi-lo" roller-coaster ride's you will be a grizzled battle hardened veteran with a solid investment plan that fit's your personal risk tolerance.

[savetherainforest]

The problem that most don't understand is that the BTCiTcoins have dried up from the traditional supply. And the only way to get bitcoins is from the Altcoin Vs. Bitcoin market. But to do that, you have to acquire Altcoins to push the price in fiat on them and then dump them on a loss for BTC.      

So I guess... suck on that you maximalist fanatic! You won't get your way! You will get f^cked the Altway!!!

What utility altcoins you have in your mind other than bitcoin that can provide you security of transactions with thousands of potential nodes running across the network.So a certain so called dumbass group of persons will be able to push the shitcoins price high against bitcoin when they all follow it ? Eventually you don't need to dump the altcoins because the temporary run for them is over and so they automatically dumps and so called altway is set out of the market.Have some in depth knowledge before supporting the so called zero utility altcoins.

I always use altcoins to transfer stuff left < and > right.  ... "BTCutcoin" for me is sh!t. It is too slow and too high of a fee. F^ck security, SHA-256 is excessive, I'm happy with less.


*edit(0): Until Aliens attack us, we will manage our day to day precious sh!t currency transactions with less. Then we will use 512 or higher if its necessary for something greater than some stupid thing as called money. ... Don't get me wrong, I get along, but I actually deeply hate money.

*edit(1): Or the concept of money. There needs to be a better system, something better to be invented.

[Torque]

OK.  What the hell?  I really like Tradingview, and there are some gems of shadetree analysis on there.  Some really interesting ideas and insights.  But WHY, WHY, WHY does ANYONE think shit like this is useful at all?

This guy is one of the top follows on there.  What the heck is wrong with people?

He needs to come sit under the zen feet of Toxic for a while and learn about ducks diving for salamanders and things like that.

I feel for people like this. If they keep going like this, they'll eventually have a complete psychotic breakdown.

I have images of this person being rolled out on a gurney in a straightjacket in ten years.

[WaltKitty]

OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.

Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard. 

[cAPSLOCK]

OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.

Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard. 

Right.  I am definitely on heightened... umm heightened something.

But my antennas have served me well over the decades.  I have learned not to discount them.  Especially when they are receiving such an overwhelmingly strong signal.

Tough part is I usually have a bit of insight as to what the signal means. But I am not sure where we are headed.... I just seem to be picking up that we are in for a pretty wild ride.

You know how animals act funny before an earthquake, or trees turn their leaves up before a good rain?

My antennas are literally vibrating.

[El duderino_]

[JayJuanGee]

@100trillionUSD
June closing price $35,037 .. as far below S2F model as in Jan 2019. Next 6 months will be make or break for S2F (again).
https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1410530418495983617?s=21


 

Make or break sounds like nearly pure bullshit kind of language for a purported scientist to be describing and to be giving any shits about his model.

Tweak the fucking model... who cares if it were to end up falling short of expectations... ?

It should not be considered the best model (most highly-correlated) since slice bread and then all of a sudden considered as a dire failure.  Does not make any sense to me, but what am I except an outside observer?

As long as you have a roof over your head and your bills are taken care of you can never buy too much BTC

Exactly. I would never regret looking back at this post or comment in future.
I am sure all you Legends/Hero Members loves your yearly gains.

yeah. and dont forget to enjoy those potential multi year long losses too.

Yes, exactly.. patience is not a bad thing with any investment, including going through a full cycle or two or maybe even more than that.. past performance is no guarantee to future performance, and it can take a while to build any kind of investment.., whether investing in the seemingly fastest horse in the race or not.

OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.

Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard.  

Right.  I am definitely on heightened... umm heightened something.

But my antennas have served me well over the decades.  

Yeah right...    

I have learned not to discount them.  Especially when they are receiving such an overwhelmingly strong signal.

Tough part is I usually have a bit of insight as to what the signal means.

Yeah right...    

But I am not sure where we are headed.... I just seem to be picking up that we are in for a pretty wild ride.

You know how animals act funny before an earthquake, or trees turn their leaves up before a good rain?

My antennas are literally vibrating.

Nothing wrong with that bUGsly-lock.. just keep watching to see what happens next.

One thing about the future, we cannot really know for sure.  That's what makes it interesting and sometimes a wee bit scary when you be poking ur head out of the blankeee from time to time.

 

By the way, my understanding is that the difficulty adjustment is maxed out at 25% down, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.. especially since the hashrate is suggesting 27.5%, currently but the adjustment is coming in a wee bit more than 1 day from now.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

So it means that if the current hashrate continues, it will be lower than the adjustment, so the suggestion for the next period will still be down.. and if it rises to a level of 25% or more on the next period, that could be a good (opportune) time for any possible attacker, perhaps?

I am just watching, too, and waiting for greater experts to provide more details for what is happening, and sure, cAPSLOCK, you are part of that package of information... and many of us claiming to be normies, only have so much time to research further and hope to NOT be scared into taking any rash actions.

[WaltKitty]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Happy Canada Day all you WO Canucks.

Still stuck in the mid-$3xxxx range... currently $33740USD/$41714CAD (Bitcoinaverage). Waiting for October.

Too busy getting infrastructure together at the lake. Moved in temporary trailer last week. Laid gravel bed for the shipping container that will serve as garage and secure storage. After a couple of months of day trips we're ready to start spending nights.

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

There is something about the body not absorbing as efficient from pills as it does from food also.

I get my Vitamin C both ways. I eat a healthy diet of fresh foods, not peeled (the skin's the best part), not overcooked, and also take a 1000mg time-release Vitamin C tablet every morning and night.

Using time-release tablets is key.  Your body quickly pisses it out so you need to keep trickling your supply slowly into your system. This is why dietary Vitamin C works better. Digestion of food releases the C at a slower rate, just as soluble fiber slows the absorption of sugars, slowing diabetes.

Canada Day and the founding of chicom authoritarianism, what a bi-polar world we live in. Does not seem fair. Happy C-day anyway JimboToronto.

LOL El_Duderino. Perfect.

[Dabs]

Take 1g of Vitamin C every hour all day. That knocked out my COVID in a day.

Uh ... I know there's no such thing as Vitamin C overdose, but that's twice more than the maximum recommended (10 grams per day, some articles say 2 grams per day is the max without side effects) on some studies I read. I just take 1g a day and I'm doing fine. Maybe 2 if I don't forget, and just your typical costco / kirkland brand too.

Any more than 5 to 10 and you're likely to just waste it.

But then again, COVID is a new thing, perhaps that's what is needed ...

Someone with far more expertise than I about vitamins mentioned about doing it once in an hour due to how it is absorbed by the body and how quickly it loses effect (or something along those lines). Basically spreading it out throughout the day is the key.

There is something about the body not absorbing as efficient from pills as it does from food also.

It would make a little sense to conserve as much while spreading it out through the day, so maybe the smallest tablet you can consume taken several times in a day. Something like 100 mg per hour x 24 = 2.4 grams in a day, which is close to the maximum without "wasting" ... some studies show about half may get wasted through pills.

Some tabs have slits in them, so you can use a vitamin cutter to split a tab in half.

But all this might be too much work, LOL, so just get the smallest you can swallow and use that. The tabs I got are 1000 mg each, I've seen 500 mg tabs too.

[modrobert]

OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.

Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard.  

Right.  I am definitely on heightened... umm heightened something.

But my antennas have served me well over the decades.  I have learned not to discount them.  Especially when they are receiving such an overwhelmingly strong signal.

Tough part is I usually have a bit of insight as to what the signal means. But I am not sure where we are headed.... I just seem to be picking up that we are in for a pretty wild ride.

You know how animals act funny before an earthquake, or trees turn their leaves up before a good rain?

My antennas are literally vibrating.

After central (China) mining went offline, and difficulty still haven't adjusted downwards fully, the time between each block will fluctuate a lot more than usual. Hashing a block SHA256 checksum with leading zeroes is a bit like lottery, the more lottery tickets you pull per second the better the odds are (higher hashrate), it is still possible to pull a lot lottery tickets in a row without winning. The difficulty in a couple of days is estimated to go down with roughly 27%. The difficulty adjusts every two weeks with the goal to generate one block every ten minutes on average.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

Yes.. but gears are very empowering.

We do not get resolution of the perpetual motion machine merely by introducing gears though, do we?  Even if we can get a wind car that moves faster than the wind by use of gears.

Perpetual motion is such an interesting thought project that it just seems we should be able to harness the universal effects like gravity through some method that will not work out to a zero sum game but all that have tried have failed.

Maybe we will finally have the solution when we have a unified theory?

I've done some pseudo practical thought experiments on this one, but because of stuff like friction, we can not achieve 100% efficiency. The smoothest ball bearings (or other bearings / bushings) and the best performing gears ... there will be some losses, but can get close to 99% ? or something very high efficiency. Still, it is less than 100% so the output will always be less than whatever is the input.

I've even tried to do mechanical to chemical or electrical conversions, and use the electrical energy to power mechanical motors, ... Try plugging in 3 or 4 UPS in series, then plug the last one back to the first one, see how long it will last, LOL. Then plug an electric fan or light bulb somewhere in the middle. It will last awhile, but eventually all of the UPS will die. I've not tried to make it last too long.

The best we could hope for is something very efficient but still need input from other sources, be that solar, wind, water, tides, volcanos, heat, gravity ... I was a kid who thought I could power my house with a pair of double-A batteries.

I like the "perpetual motion" flywheel thingy that rolls to the bottom of a wide angle V shape and never stops spinning going back and forth. Or the bobbing duck. Trying to harness any meaningful amount of energy makes them stop. Trying to make it work by getting only 1% of the energy makes it kinda pointless, might as well stick to "traditional" solar or wind power commercially available already. My brother got a windmill and some solar panels on the roof of his house and he dropped his electric bill to about 20% to 30% of what it used to be.

There's very little point to getting it below 0% unless your electricity provider has some sort of grid-together-link-send back sort of thing, but they probably will not pay you, so the best you can get is either no bill, or very low bill, which you'll happily pay anyway.

[ivomm]

...

I've just bought for 500€ and I will keep doing that DCA each month until I retire. My advise for bigger sums is to divide them at least in 3 parts and buying now with the first part. In case the price falls enough, fire the next buy and so on.

You cannot just retire early, ivomm?

I am going to create a hypothetical that is not necessarily meant to be your situation, but let's say for example you have a pension that is $50k per year and it has a bunch of other perks that cause it to go up another 50% , so it is really worth around $75k per year of already earned money once your retirement date comes, so you do not feel comfortable leaving that on the table, but you have a BTC stash that is something like 100BTC, so you feel pretty good about the BTC having a current value of $3.3 million (income of $132k) ($33k BTC prices), and currently with BTC volatility uncertainties, you might want to value the BTC ONLY at the 208-week moving average of $13,333 - so therefore only $1.33 million (income of $53.2k).

But if BTC prices were to go up to $500k and then correct back down to $100k, at some point the 208-week moving average is going to move up to $100k too.. and that would cause some amount of certainty that your BTC stash is worth several multiples in excess of the pension that you might end up leaving on the table, no?  In other words, valuing BTC at $100k would cause a $10 million BTC portfolio value (income of $400k).  At some point, the pension would start to seem like peanuts compared to the value of freedom, no?

I understand that some people still do get some pleasures from their jobs, but there is a breaking point at some price point, too, no?  Those breaking points need to be considered no, whether it is having assurances of 2x the salary, 10x the salary or 50x the salary?  or some other breaking point to cause a desire to split away from current job duties and activities or maybe just renegotiate the terms, perhaps?

Well, I have 17 years to my retirement and there is no possiblity of an early retirement with a pension in my country. So, I guess, I will need something like 17x4 yearly salaries to live comfortably, but I won't be able to afford a big house or lambo (Audi e-tron GT tops). Currently my networth is around that sum, so I guess I'm alright. The first 17-year sum I've already cashed out just to be sure in case I lose my job, which is quite possible now. I have a goverment job which requires me to be in the office only 6-7 hours per week and with a huge 6 months yearly vacation. But the problems are 3. First, the government can shut us down. Second, my boss is an asshole and is stealing from his employes. So I have a choice to be silent and get what he gives me, or to be vocal and lose my job. Third, I have 4-5 illnesses which are not life treatening for now, but our health system is horrible and I can't get a proper treatment. For these reasons, I am looking for another country, where to move after say a couple of years, living only with the profit of my Bitcoins. I am thinking about Greece and Spain, where the real estates are very cheap, even cheaper than in my poor country.

All this will be possible if the price goes above 100K, which will happen in the next months or 1-2 years, I guess. I the meantime I enjoy donating small sums to various organizations and buying for myself computer stuff and quality guitar equipment. My latest purchase arrived yesterday - a Gretsch guitar. I'm a big ACDC fan and enjoy playing their music at home and with my friends. I feel  happy with every direction Bitcoin takes. I continue mining and buying Bob-alike degenerade style. Bitcoin has already changed my life. Now I have much bigger confidence. In my poor country I naturally started with much smaller investment compared to the western world. But the current situation is that if I cash out everything now, I will enter the list with 900 richest people in my country. So I go to shops, buy and don't care about the price. I often interrupt the salers, who are used to offer cheap stuff, and I order the most expensive things, like glasses, tablets (galaxy S7+ is a beast by the way), etc.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Karartma1]

Ok China left a bitcoin mining blackhole upon us.
But I ain't see any disruption.
Let's move on.

[Dabs]

The first 17-year sum I've already cashed out just to be sure in case I lose my job, which is quite possible now. I have a goverment job which requires me to be in the office only 6-7 hours per week and with a huge 6 months yearly vacation.

...

But the current situation is that if I cash out everything now, I will enter the list with 900 richest people in my country. So I go to shops, buy and don't care about the price. I often interrupt the salers, who are used to offer cheap stuff, and I order the most expensive things, like glasses, tablets (galaxy S7+ is a beast by the way), etc.  

If I may offer some unsolicited advice or suggestions:

You already have 17 years worth of cash? Then you should be okay for the next 17 years even if nothing else happens, but you also still have the remainder of your bitcoins?

I'd wait for a little dip, or DCA back into bitcoin and leave only maybe 5 years in cash as reserves, maybe 10 years. In other words, invest the other 7 or more years back into bitcoin.

If you cash out everything now, you say you will be in the top 900 richlist of your country, currently at around $35k USD/BTC. If you wait 5 to 10 years that may double or triple your BTC, or wait for $100k, then $200k?

Somehow, you should be able to calculate another 17 years into that figure?

I would personally keep the job, and even try to make the asshole boss a friend, be nice to him, so you stick around as long as you can, up to 17 years. You said you only need 6 to 7 hours per week? That's like one hour a day average? You are almost semi-retired at this point as long as you can keep the job and the income, plus 6 months vacation.

I do not see any other job that has this kind of arrangement now while maintaining your income. You are practically retired. Fully retiring means you add 6 to 7 hours back to your weekly life and adding maybe another 6 months of "vacation", which you will have to calculate if it's worth it to give up whatever income you are currently making from your job.

I am sure you will see the signs if you are forced to retire fully or if the government is going to shut you down. You can take more drastic actions then. In the meantime, you have 17 years worth of cash ... which is 17 years more than plenty of people who don't have enough until next week.

In theory, once you have at least 25 years, you can retire, but I would stretch that to 30 years or even more. I would try to stick to whatever job I have an keep accumulating until I have maybe 40 years worth. Or more. And if it's in Bitcoin, then so much the better for the future eh? You can wait out a couple of cycles (about 4 to 8 years?) and you'd have double or triple, or 60 to 70 years worth of cash.