... a lot of his debt comes due between 4.5 years and 7 years from now, and he has various back-up strategies and he also has various plans in the event that matters don't play out in the expected direction...
It has been studied for awhile, just using price history as data, that anyone who bought bitcoin at any time and held for at least 3.8 years should be in profit. So holding bitcoin for at least 4 years and even up to 7 years without doing anything to it, should yield a nice capital gain or profit.
I'm trying to look for the article or data (of course, price data is easy enough to find) ... but it's out there.
A conservative plan to hold for at least 4 or 7 years or longer should be more profitable than anything else out there.
As much as "Past performance does not guarantee future results" is a worthy saying (and common disclaimer) as far as Bitcoin goes, if it is not worth significantly more than 30k in 7-10 years something has gone terribly wrong for it.
The bottom line right now is if lightning use continues to work in El Salvador as it has in El Zonte, it will not be up just a little bit by the time his debt is due. It's still that binary bet we've all been talking about for so long... And it's still just in the warm up. If lightning fails? Well, that is the black swan where some centralized garbage steps up to solve the problem. That's my only worry. But I do not think lightning is going to fail. It's not going to make the privacy or sovereignty purists happy right at first, but it's gonna work. WoS is a DAMN good UI. And the UX is also top notch.
Elon and his scaling on Coinbase... He really is just not as smart as many of us thought, is he?