Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

By the same token, just because a person has covid when they die, doesn't mean they died of covid.  It's portrayed in quite the opposite manner though; it IS a covid related death even though they may have died due to taking a shower.

That's a pervasive conspiracy theory but not really true in most cases. IIRC some states (Oregon?) at one point didn't separate deaths "from COVID-19" and "with COVID-19" but the discrepancy is minimal even if you extrapolated it to the whole country. Your own assertion that 10% of people tested positive combined with normal annual death rate (below 1%) shows that this would barely make a dent in the 600k number.

Okay, I realize people are dying with covid but excess deaths on a 5 year average which doesn't take into account shifting age demographics or increasing population doesn't show us anything that would help to answer the question I posed.  We know that around 600,000 people in the US have died while either confirmed positive with covid or considered a presumptive covid case so far - I am not questioning that.  I'm not denying that covid is real or bad.  My question was, how many lost years of life does that represent as compared to lost years of life due to the negative vaccine side effects on the entire population of earth + booster shots for the rest of our lives.  After all, we're targeting 100% vaccination while only about 10% of the US population has tested positive for covid-19 and the mRNA technology is new and still experimental.

Death rates are quite stable year to year except for events like swine flue and now COVID-19. CDC data on this is quite extensive so if you can find something there to support your hypothesis please share. I don't really see anything like that. Even if you take VAERS numbers as vaccine-caused deaths (gross exaggeration) it's still quite obvious that the vaccine dramatically (~ ten-fold) reduces the risk of death or complications from COVID-19 and that is true among all age groups. Why would anyone not take a lower chance of death over a higher chance is quite puzzling but that's the funky times we live in.

 The graph you showed us doesnt address the death rate.  It addresses 'excess' deaths by using the previous 5 year average and subtracting it from the current number of deaths.  On top of that, it divides the 'excess' deaths by the previous 5 years averaged deaths which amplifies the value even further and displays it as a percentage.
 When you consider an increasing population, if the death rate stays constant, you will have more deaths year over year anyway.  You amplify that difference by subtracting the previous 5 year average which will be lower because the population was lower and call it 'excess deaths'.  Now you take that number and divide it by the previous 5 year average deaths which again is lower because population was lower and you get an exaggerated value which is barely passible as a valid result.  It also captures the heatwave deaths from 2020 which were an anomaly compared to the average of the previous 5 years (though there was a heatwave in 2016).  These are the statistics that lie; the ones 4 out of 5 of our parents warned us about 90% of the time.  It's a crude measurement which is an indication that there might be something happening which warrants an investigation.  
 How do we explain the elderly group dipping into negative territory in early 2021?  I've already said that there are more elderly as a percentage of population and the population in 2020 was higher than the previous years as well.  Disregarding covid, we should see excess deaths in that period as well but we dont.  Does this mean the vaccines prolonged life beyond even pre-covid life expectations?  Have we found the Fountain of Youth in the form of an mRNA vaccine?  Maybe it means that spike in November we attribute to covid took out those who would have died 3 to 6 months later of something other than covid anyway but that's speculation and probably not something we would base our covid response on.

 It probably goes without saying but I think we've overreacted to the covid pandemic.  I'm sick of the travel bans and lockdowns, I'm appalled at the economic devastation we've caused and I resent being essentially jailed for the last 18 months only being allowed day parole to attend to my essential businesses' needs while carrying a special letter in case I get stopped outside of my curfew or standing outside in endless lines 6 feet apart yet still wearing a mask waiting to shop for basic needs.  Remember when the news of the pandemic first broke and people all over the world rushed to the stores to buy all the food they could and they eventually had to limit the sale of sanitizer and paper products to one per customer?  I wish we would periodically adjust our covid response as well.  I think we've all seen one too many zombie apocalypse movies... our political leaders included.

 I just want to add some weight to my argument with factual information rather than speculation.  Now this is Canadian information and I can't say for sure that it translates to other countries but I would bet money that it does.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210712/dq210712b-eng.htm

 "While we sometimes observe excess mortality that is consistent with the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19, data reveal that indirect consequences of the pandemic are also having a significant impact on the number of excess deaths in Canada, particularly among younger Canadians. Based on the newly updated provisional dataset released today from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, from the end of March 2020 to the beginning of April 2021, an estimated 62,203 deaths were reported among Canadians aged 0 to 64. This represents 5,535 more deaths than expected were there no pandemic, after accounting for changes in the population such as aging. Over the same period, 1,380 COVID-19 deaths have been attributed to the same age group (those younger than 65), suggesting that the excess mortality is, in large part, related to other factors such as increases in the number deaths attributed to causes associated with substance use and misuse, including unintentional (accidental) poisonings and diseases and conditions related to alcohol consumption."


 TL;DR - 75% of the excess deaths in the 0-64 age group in Canada were NOT attributed to covid-19.

 

[Paashaas]

The BTC capacity in lightning is growing at a blistering rate!

https://twitter.com/VetleLunde/status/1414935599321124864

[Paashaas]

Grayscale Bitcoin trust adds BNY Mellon as service provider, eyeing ETF approval.

Asset manager Grayscale announced today that it has selected BNY Mellon as the asset servicing provider for its flagship product, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). BNY Mellon will provide GBTC with fund accounting and administration starting October 1, 2021, and facilitate the trust’s future intention to become an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

(Oh well, there is some non-FUD news after all.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Who cares about US dollar inflation

When

Not yet merit inflation, that a good thing 

Yeah, but you know that bitcoin value is not ONLY a factor of dollar inflation.

That is some bullshit that bitcoin naysayers like to say in order to distract from aspects of the importance of bitcoin's ongoing beating up of the dollar.

The dollar did not deflate by 50x in the past 4 years, even though if we look at our current bitcoin price of approximately $32.5k, as I type, we see that bitcoin is 50x up.. in 4 years.

Sure the dollar is fucked up and maybe there was 5% per year deflation prior to 2020, but in the past year there probably is closer in the range of 10% to 20% and sure it could get worse or it might plateau somewhere in the ballpark of 10% to 20% of lost value per year based on irresponsible and ongoing (and seems like never going to stop) money printing.

So, yeah, maybe the ongoing dumbass policies that are causing loss of value in the dollar that goes from 5% per year to 20% per year is going to cause some measuring in the BTC price appreciation, yet a large number of us longer term bitcoiners (who seem to be studying the topic and somewhat appreciating some of what is going on in this process) likely still can see that if the dollar is going to end up going down between 5% and 20% then bitcoin is going to likely have to go up at least the same, and probably more (even accounting for UPs and DOWNs in the dippening and cyclening processes that bitcoin goes through). 

So let's say that either bitcoin is going to go up again and reach another ATH above $64,895 or there is another possibility that the bear cycle hit us a wee bit earlier than expected and we end up suffering through an extended DOWNity period from here.  Even if we account for various UPs and DOWNs from here, we are still likely going to be seeing BTC prices appreciating way the hell faster than the dollar might either be able to retain value or to be able to stave off its likely inevitable losing of value.

And, not only are we likely going to continue to see Bitcoin way the hell out performing the dollar, it is likely to way the hell outperform any of the other dollar related asset bubbles, whether we are referring to stocks and property values or we are referring to various PMs that also seem to suffer from similar kinds of dollar related manipulated mechanisms - whether papering them or just the fact that they are not as good at verifiability since we know that those of us with any kind of wherewithal can figure out that we are capable to immediately demand possession of our lil fiend, aka bitcoin.  Try that with a million dollars worth of physical gold or your dumbass Apple (or Tesla) stocks... Sure, you can demand possession of your house or your real estate, but that is still suffering from a lot of the artificial inflation that causes normies (and even BIG businesses) to use realestate and housing as storage of value (however inefficient that mechanism seems to be).

[Syke]

Warning to my US-based WO family. The IRS is opening *criminal* investigations to any business that has ever accepted bitcoin as a payment method. If an IRS agent contacts you, say nothing, get a lawyer.

[JayJuanGee]

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Hopefully with a favorable end.

I'm sure of that. The only issue is HOW LONG? I'm getting a bit tired... but she will do as she will do.

Hm?  means that you are considering a kind of bullish fake out going on in bitcoinlandia, currently?

A Bitcoin address just did a transaction after being inactive for 9 years.
TX: https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/a922ec6d34e1a36cc935c7e9b37b5d8be826e11fb299a25d83285cc8b484e965

Moved 740BTC after 9 years!

Satoshi, was that you? 🤔

What's interesting are a couple of things:

Total Output
739.99999747 BTC
Fees
0.00000253 BTC

He used a "subtract fee from amount" thing, which leads me to believe he used Bitcoin Core wallet.

And, the fee is 8 cents to move a few million dollars.

He probably cashed out 100 of that (about $3.2 million dollars), and the rest goes into cold storage or into a native segwit address.

If he HODLs that for another 9 years, he can expect to have at least double to triple worth of that or more. The $3m should let him live off it for that amount of time or longer (possibly for at least 30 years even if that amount is never invested.) / depending on his expenses.

Oh gawd, Dabs.   

My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...

Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.

For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.

For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...

Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value? Sure, I am not one of those who devolve into 1 btc = 1 btc, when comes off as extreme on the other end, because no matter what we need to be attempting to peg our BTC value to something and if we lose confidence in pegging BTC value to the dollar, then we should not devolve into meaningless statements of pegging BTC to itself, and even pegging in a meaningful serving size of hookers, lambos, and blow would make more sense than either pegging bitcoin's value to itself or the nonsense that you seem to be devolving into in terms of suggesting that we should attempt to make long term assessments in regards to the dollar retaining its value or that we should peg our BTC prudence in terms of making lump sum cashening outenings of our BTC in order to speculating on having some kind of dollar security of some sort.

*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.

Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.

[xhomerx10]

Warning to my US-based WO family. The IRS is opening *criminal* investigations to any business that has ever accepted bitcoin as a payment method. If an IRS agent contacts you, say nothing, get a lawyer.

 What's wrong with accepting bitcoin for payment?  The IRS considered it property back in 2014 so it's a simple barter transaction.  Do you have any evidence?  Will NewEgg, Overstock, Dell, Paypal, Bitrefill, Microsoft and Tesla be criminally investigated or are they only after the little guys?
 

[WaltKitty]

Warning to my US-based WO family. The IRS is opening *criminal* investigations to any business that has ever accepted bitcoin as a payment method. If an IRS agent contacts you, say nothing, get a lawyer.

Quote a source? All the IRS is doing at the moment is trying to not sink. 35 million backlogged tax returns that have to be processed manually. Does the IRS have "criminal" investigations going on? Of course they do, I imagine it happens all the time. Will they file against every business that has touched Bitcoin? I don't think it would be physically possible.

https://www.wgal.com/article/irs-tax-returns-delays-backlogs/36996735

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

...even if some folks want you to consider that we are ONLY in the midst of a "trend" in which bitcoin gravitates towards its "inevitable price of zero.".... hahahahahaha

The question now, since nothing is forever, will this be one of the following:

1. not in 100 years? (one hundred)
2. not in 1000 years? (one thousand)
3. not in 10k years or longer?

In any case, we are all dead before bitcoin ever reaches zero.

Even though I believe that I understand what you are doing, I am not sure if your way of framing the matter is fair or even the same topic that I had mentioned.

Of course, there is always some amount of chance that BTC could go to zero, whether it is this particular correction cycle or if it were to take much further to play out.  And, there is also a rhetorical component, too.

So yeah if we are referring to the short term likelihood that bitcoin is going to zero the odds do seem to be quite low, but they are surely not at zero.. even for the short term.

In other words, we cannot completely rule out the actual possibility that bitcoin could go to zero in the short term and even in a time frame that is much less than 100 years.

Now, in terms of the rhetoric, and the kinds of feelings that status quo stake holders such as rich peeps, financial institutions and some status quo governments would like to create remains an impression that bitcoin is a flash in
the pan rather than anything meaningful and significant (as they might be learning that BTC is a much more formidable force than they are publicly admitting).  So sure, there are also a decent amount of status quo folks that are truly confused about bitcoin versus crypto and even contemplating that there are ways that bitcoin can be managed, in the event that it cannot be snuffed-out... which also likely requires coordination in the government and even coordination between governments if any kind of snuffing out might even be reasonably feasible at this stage in bitcoin's life.. and sure, I am not even suggesting that various kinds of governmental agent fantasies are realistic, but I am not going to negate that there are plenty of governmental agency officials and even status quo financial officials who might still be in their own little fantasy regarding how they are framing their ways to "deal with" bitcoin.

Some people think the end of the last mined bitcoin, by base reward, would be the end, around the year 2140.

Yeah, but why is that even relevant?  You really believe that at this time, we need to seriously consider whether any kind of potentially non development of a sufficiently sized fee market is any kind of real and meaningful threat to bitcoin in the next 100 or so years (or less perhaps?).. there are likely much more important considerations than that seemingly almost lame talking point, no?

But we will see a full decade or earlier if that will be the case or not, perhaps even by the middle of this century, as transaction fees approach or exceed the base reward per block mined.

Yes, for sure.. the fee market and the various ways of considering 1st layer or second layer (or any other layers) is an ongoing empirical question concerning dynamics that fall into place and whether some kinds of foreseeable and important vulnerabilities begin to show themselves in respect to bitcoin (or if it all of a sudden becomes too late to fix some kind of extreme vulnerability that might exist in connection to fee/reward related incentives).
 
I guess I should not really need to repeat that I consider your pondering on this question to be a bit of a pie in the sky contemplation at this time, but hey each of us have our various considerations and concerns in regards to the various king daddy investment theses.. and how much emphasis we believe those considerations/scenarios to deserve.

Warning to my US-based WO family. The IRS is opening *criminal* investigations to any business that has ever accepted bitcoin as a payment method. If an IRS agent contacts you, say nothing, get a lawyer.

Link or it did not happen.

[BillyCoiner]

In which moment do you guys take off your moon suits & admit to yourselves that the top is in for this cycle & there is now the beginning of a long bear market? There is no life in this bull now, the transition to bear is happening in front of your eyes. I am calling $10000 by the end of this year. Head & Shoulder formation playing out, we are going down town.

Sell everything now & buy back at $8000 in 2022.

My name is Billy not Silly. Sell everything ASAP.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

In which moment do you guys take off your moon suits & admit to yourselves that the top is in for this cycle & there is now the beginning of a long bear market? There is no life in this bull now, the transition to bear is happening in front of your eyes. I am calling $10000 by the end of this year. Head & Shoulder formation playing out, we are going down town.

Sell everything now & buy back at $8000 in 2022.

My name is Billy not Silly. Sell everything ASAP.

Activity 3

Merit 4

Which was the dumbass giving you…

Let me have a look 

*edit, Damn @Loyce…. ‘T kaf van ‘t koren scheiden

[BTCaesar]

In which moment do you guys take off your moon suits & admit to yourselves that the top is in for this cycle & there is now the beginning of a long bear market? There is no life in this bull now, the transition to bear is happening in front of your eyes. I am calling $10000 by the end of this year. Head & Shoulder formation playing out, we are going down town.

Sell everything now & buy back at $8000 in 2022.

My name is Billy not Silly. Sell everything ASAP.

Proudhon, is it you?

[HI-TEC99]

Bear trolling.

HODL.

[BillyCoiner]

A quick look into WO future

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

In which moment do you guys take off your moon suits & admit to yourselves that the top is in for this cycle & there is now the beginning of a long bear market?

You are making a good first impression here, you fucktwat.

If you believe that we are in a bear market, merely because you are wishing for it or because you are subscribing to some nonsense assessment of what is the bitcoin market based on lame indicators, then you likely have a lot to learn before you come to preach wannabe know-it-all-ness in these here parts.

There is no life in this bull now, the transition to bear is happening in front of your eyes.

Good luck with that.  You might be wrong.. but you might not.  Hopefully you have not placed too much leverage on your bet, and on a smaller note, there can be some risk for failure and refusal to reasonably and adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UP, just in case.

In udder words, if you are ONLY betting on one direction, you might end up with a not so pleasant surprise.

Time will tell, no?

Even though you are too god damned new to accept any of your representations regarding what your stake might be in one direction or another, even while you are coming into this thread attempting to establish (proclaim) that you have some kind of greater insight than guys participating herein.

I am calling $10000 by the end of this year.

I am sure that there are plenty of folks willing to bet your newbie ass on the matter, and I would recommend escrow for anyone considering such a matter with this dweeb.

Furthermore, good luck getting below the 208-week moving average especially accounting for where we seem to be at within the four-year fractal, which has not been bumped from its likely ongoing credibility as an outline for where we likely are and for where we are likely going.

Head & Shoulder formation playing out, we are going down town.

Head and shoulders do not mean shit if you are failing/refusing to account for broader concepts, including zooming out ur lil selfie a wee bit MOAR broader than you seem to be zoomening.

Sell everything now & buy back at $8000 in 2022.

You are saying dumber and dumber things, the further I read your post.  Billy is in a fantasy-landia and does not know the asset about which s/he/it speaks.

My name is Billy not Silly.

Yes.  An admission against interests, silly billy.

Sell everything ASAP.

The vast majority of peeps here know that you neither sell everything, and you also do not wait very long before buying back, in the event that you do sell some BTC for insurance purposes.

In other words, one of the strongest and most tried and true methodologies in bitcoinlandia has been to employ some variation of HODL and/or accumulating strategies, so a selling strategy, especially after already going through a 56% correction seems to be the opposite of smart in the best case scenario and more likely a kind of gambling rather than having any kind of rational and meaningful justification for anyone who may well be considering ways to improve their lot in life by including bitcoin as one of their tools rather than making their lot(s) MOAR worser.

In which moment do you guys take off your moon suits & admit to yourselves that the top is in for this cycle & there is now the beginning of a long bear market? There is no life in this bull now, the transition to bear is happening in front of your eyes. I am calling $10000 by the end of this year. Head & Shoulder formation playing out, we are going down town.

Sell everything now & buy back at $8000 in 2022.

My name is Billy not Silly. Sell everything ASAP.

Activity 3

Merit 4

Which was the dumbass giving you…

Let me have a look  

*edit, Damn @Loyce…. ‘T kaf van ‘t koren scheiden

hahahahaha

This might be one of those examples in which "mistakes were made"  

A quick look into WO future

Some of us are already there...

So what else is new, newbie billy no coiner?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation