Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Dinosaur Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday Mar/18

Prediction valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3674 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 606 USD.


The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The light blue-gray squares are the older price predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. The size of the Albertosaurus under each point indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is the mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is the daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from the ratio S.  The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the above prediction.

This diagram is a step towards "scientificating" the Chinese Slumber Method.  Instead of a binary classification of the Slumber Points into True (valid, used) and False (invalid, discarded), each point now gets assigned a numeric weight (shown above by the point's size) which is a decreasing function of the night-time activity ratio S = V_h/V_d. This weight is used for fitting each trend (by weighted least squares) and to choose breaks in the trends.  However the choice of the breaks and part of the fitting are still done by eyeballing.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which these days seems to be around 6.06 CNY/USD.

NOTE: There is no NOTE this time. I may provide two NOTES next time.

[TERA]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

[TERA]

Is anyone considering that a powerful operation is dead set on destroying the value of bitcoin once an for all?  International effort would be a piece of cake.  


Happy st paddy's

Here's the skinny: 2 out of 3 of the world's superpowers (Russia and China) are against Bitcoin. This leaves only the Unites States left to really support Bitcoin and set an authoritative precedent in the world. Also ,exchanges are dropping like flies. This year Bitcoin is actually experiencing a "reverse adoption" like never before (except maybe 2011) which is outweighing the adoption. The only hope left is that the United States continues to embrace Botcoin and that these exchanges start opening in New York in June. If I see that this is not going to happen then I will be leaving.

Tera. Calm down. Do you even listen to yourself sometimes?  Russia and China don't lead anything anywhere. They are not world leaders. However, Germany, if they were to start promoting bitcoin would be a world leader, because of their influence in Europe.  United Kingdom, same. Saudi Arabia, because of their influence in the Middle East. Hong Kong, because of their influence in Asia.

You basically pick the "axis of evil" and act like the fact that these countries (on, noos we left out the bitcoin unfriendly North Korea!) are anti-bitcoin is some sort of game changer.

Not only that but you set a deadline of June. Lol. Ok.

If you do leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out. But you know, I know, the american people know, and Bob Dole knows you aren't going anywhere.

Please replace "negativity", "positivity", etc with "speculation". Prices can move in two directions, and I am simply speculating about which way they could move based on certain events. There aren't many emotions involved.

[Peter R]

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Only time will tell.  


TERA I do disagree with your comment earlier that we are seeing de-adoption.  By the metrics I follow:

- blockchain.info web wallets
- coinbase wallets / merchants
- transactions per day excluding popular addresses
- network hash rate
- Reddit r/bitcoin subscribers

we are still growing exponentially and with the same "time constant."  Bitcoin is like a (good!) virus spreading across the world.  

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

             !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 !  03/14 !  03/15 ! 03/16 !  03/17 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 |   8.68 |   2.20 |  3.30 |   9.17 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 |   3.76 |   2.55 |  2.62 |   3.90 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  BitFinEx   |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 |   5.53 |   1.74 |  1.90 |   3.76 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 |   0.48 |   0.34 |  0.15 |   0.48 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 |   0.20 |   0.12 |  0.12 |   0.40 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.11 |   0.06 |  0.06 |   0.10 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.03 |  0.02 |   0.07 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |  18.82 |   7.04 |  8.17 |  17.88 |                     

  Huobi      |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 |  78.40 |  36.50 | 27.00 |  63.80 | CNY                 
  OKCoin     | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 |  97.80 |  55.40 | 40.00 |  59.00 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 |   2.97 |   1.13 |  1.51 |   2.74 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 |   0.19 |   0.35 |  0.28 |   0.34 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 | 179.36 |  93.38 | 68.79 | 125.88 |                     

  TOTAL      | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 | 198.18 | 100.42 | 76.96 | 143.76 |                     

All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.)

[billyjoeallen]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

[TERA]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

[JayJuanGee]

So, if loss of bid depth on both sides is dramatically measurable, that likely translates to a short-term loss of interest in BTC and likely downward trends....

I say it means hoarding has really begun.

a WILD CONJECTURE has appeared!

pretty sure it was just traders shifting the position of their orders in response to the first significant price action in almost a week. i forgot how far you guys in this thread will extrapolate and exaggerate any innocent data...

I would NOT describe a $5 to $10 downward trickling movement as a "significant price action."

then you have something to learn about price movement. not only is a $15 movement in a 6-hour period the largest range we have seen in about a week, the volume associated with the movement is the largest we've seen in that same time frame. this makes it significant in magnitude if only in comparison to the watching-paint-dry-caliber price behavior this past week. it is also significant in that it may herald a steady increase in volatility from here on out after that painfully quiet consolidation.

Looks like you are turning out to be correct; however, at the time that I wrote, the movement was only in its budding stages.  Also, I do NOT claim to be any expert, so I remain curious why you felt it necessary to engage in patronizing... Anyhow, thanks for the fairly detailed response...

[billyjoeallen]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.  

[TERA]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule. 

What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission".

[JayJuanGee]

This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.

Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books....   b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no?

[JorgeStolfi]

Total trade volume today (Mon Mar/17 00:00--23:59 UTC) was ~144 kBTC.  That is  87% more than yesterday's (77 kBTC), but still 43% less than last Monday Mar/10, and somewhat below the average of recent weeks.

Trade volume outside China more than doubled (from 8.2 to 18 kBTC) but is still 46% less than last Monday's.  Bitstamp's almost tripled (from 3.30 to 9.17), but BTC-e's grew only 49% (to 3.90 kBTC). Bitfinex 's volume almost doubled (from 1.90 to 3.76) and almost caught up with BTC-e, but is still only 30% of its volume last Monday.

Trade volume in China increased 83% since yesterday (from 69 to 126 kBTC) but is still 58% of last Monday's.  Huobi recovered its lead over OKCoin (51% versus 47% of China's volume, respectively).

China's slice of the total volume increased slightly from 88% to 89%.

EDIT: that is on the exchanges that I monitor (see my previous post).  Are there any significant exchanges besides those?

[TERA]

This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.

Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books....   b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no?

You can speculate about 'big investors not showing their cards' with ANY bid, even with a large bid they can still be there. I'd much rather speculate about them being there with a 100M USD order book than a 12M USD order book - there would probably be more of them too. Speculating about something I can't see and speculating about sneaky buyers suddenly making an appearance to save me from falling off a cliff is not how I like to trade. Also, the tiny order book represents a lack of maturity in the current market. There should be more there whether there are hidden buyers or not.

[Davyd05]

This seems more like that long squeeze, however...I just think somebody is picking up as many cheap coins as possible..those trying to kick start the markets with large buy orders could' have picked up more letting people dump em to them...add some of the low volume as of late and you get a prime time to squeeeeze

[solex]

Looks like a spike down to $575 imminent.

China's slice of the total volume increased slightly from 88% to 89%.

Their zero fee exchanges can churn thousands more btc than normal fee charging exchanges. As you are a mathematician you will know that repetitive 0.2% slices will quickly whittle down any large amount being churned with a small probability of an edge.

[JayJuanGee]

it is not a "SIGNIFICANT MOVE" as far as bitcoin price action is concerned, but it carries information in the short-term.

Exactly. Earlier today when I posted a chart illustrating the support breach this morning and lack of pressure to fuel a strong bounce, I was told I was over-analyzing. And I thought, do people around here wait for a sell-off to conclude that the price might go down? I'm trying to close or accumulate position before that occurs....

yeah it seems many traders around here don't understand the idea of keeping ahead of the market. chasing the market is more obvious, but obviously less profitable

it also doesn't require empirical methods of constructing a workable signalling theory like the one i outlined in my last post. but then again, many traders here don't even "believe in" TA at all

Why does it even matter if some traders have different points of view than you. So What...?  Not everyone here is a day trader, and sometimes BTC movements take place based on factors other than trend lines.  Surely, if I am fairly confident that a certain movement is going to take place, then I will act based on that confidence.  One of the problems with bitcoin; however, is that one or two whales can change the direction - and especially catch the less experienced "traders" off guard (to the extent that some of us are still engaging in trading, in spite of proclamations to the contrary).

[lyth0s]

Bitstamp prices now match btc-e prices as I stated

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518871.msg5758585#msg5758585



I'll be doing another analysis of the market within the next two days or so. But I still expect the $550-590 range before we start another upward trend.

According to my graph below we are still at a higher price per bitcoin than would be predicted with an R squared of >0.9

[billyjoeallen]

Buy when everybody is pessimistic.

We might not be there yet but it's close.

How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN.

We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not.

or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again.

Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that.

Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle".

The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule.  

What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission".

$32 is 320X $0.10  $1163 is 77.5X $15, so the wait until the next ATH should be only ~1/4th as long.

[MAbtc]

5m says bounce, just as 1200 of the ask at 620 gets removed... just a little one, though.