Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

[1714271071]

1714271071

[1714271071]

1714271071

[1714271071]

1714271071

[Macadonian]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

Yes

All other opinions are FUD

[Biodom]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

Yes

[JayJuanGee]

  people like J1G occasionally reward them with free hand outs.
Jay, when we develop a Rat problem, the solution doesn't involve feeding the Rats.

Nice little monologue Copetech, and it surely could have been worth a merit, perhaps? perhaps? except for your above lil factual misrepresentation... Might have been innocent.. perhaps?  perhaps? but it's not the first time that you have gotten some facts, logic and even conclusions wrong before based on such newbie citteee sloppiness Copetech..but hopefully you will get MOAR better with practice, practice and a wee bit more practice...

I scrolled WaY Back to find the posting I was Referring to and may have possibly gotten the referencing mixed up...?

I have told variations of the story with this particular tio several times in this thread, but I had specifically given him $10 worth of bitcoin in 2014 when the BTC price was around $385.  I did that through Circle, and they had a feature that you could claw back the gift in the event that the member had not opened their e-mail, which was the case for him, and I clawed it back in early 2016, but he contacted me in mid 2016 when BTC was around $750, and I agree to send him the same amount again, which was like $19-ish.  He then bought $300 worth of Bitcoin through Circle and then sold all of his BTC in about mid-2017 (presumably receiving long term tax treatment) for around $3,800-ish.. so he would have made something like $1,800 in profits.. and I am pretty sure that he has been a no coiner ever since...  

[Edit Snip Snip]

I already know that I won, but only trying to be charitable to him in terms of providing information if he is willing to receive it, and he does not want no charity, because he is a self-made kind of guy who has some comforts in paying his fund manager to manage his funds that my uncle has lived off for 25 years-ish... .

When I first saw this (shortly after the Rat had been called out on his begging) I took it as previously giving bits of cheese to the Rat... but now looking back, maybe it was J1GUncle that got the cheese?

Anyway memory is a very odd thing and creates very different realities for each individual. Maybe I did in fact get my reality confuzzled with your Bot Reality, but either way the overarching point still applies. Treat Rats as Rats and End up with less Stray Cats!

Your overall point was not a bad one, and at least you were able to clarify...

Of course, there is a balance with any kind of even giving attention to disingenuine, shilling, scammer posters like eXPHorizon, and guys here have differing opinions regarding whether they should just be completely ignored, and for sure, I do not subscribe to that philosophy, but of course, any kind of response does become dangerous if you seem to be going along with their nonsense in any kind of way rather than denigrating it, rebutting it or clarifying why it is wrong or looney.


For example the below post:  Should this be ignored or rebutted?  or maybe clarified?

Well to see everyone are knowledgeable gues i hope and observed that everyone point discussion smoothly but i just adding something @JayJuanGee is the most knowledgeable person of bitcoin and bitcoin market,  i hope you also agreed to @JayJuanGee deserved some extra respect only for writing and knowledgeable reply, ooh yeah @JayJuanGee your uncle true? hopfully @JayJuanGee is a master for sometime so we can learn some knowledge from him and learn more things.

Truly this is baloney, and I did not put Victorycoin up to spouting out such nonsense.  Also, I doubt that it is necessary to elaborate at this point, except perhaps to say that there cannot really be anyone that is more right than anyone else when it comes to pointing out matters that come from an individual perspective... so in order to have quality back and forth discussion, there needs to be some sharing of perspectives, which inevitably are going to differ from one person/bot to another.. even if we might agree about 99% of things, there is going to be some application or viewpoint differences that inevitably come merely from the fact that we are neither the same person / bot... to the extent that a person or a bot exists on the interwebs... we are all bots on the web... (or is it cats?... I forget.... whatever)...   

[vapourminer]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

a mere doubling from the current price? and months to do so? i would be (moderately) surprised if it didnt honestly.

[Toxic2040]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

a glimpse of something nice for a change 

[JayJuanGee]

@BTC_Archive
#Bitcoin  bull markets have all ended AFTER going parabolic - and with the Puell Multiple in the red zone.

We are nowhere near that!



https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1422519678539337730?s=21

I guess that we see from 2013 that there were two times that BTC prices went into the red zone in 2013, but still the first time did not cause the longer term BTC price correction (or an end of that particular bullmarket at that time), but surely, we only got about a 5x from the second half of the 2013 bullrun.. the first half of the 2013 run was something approaching 20x.. and the total of 2013 was 100x-ish..

It seems to me that 2013 threw off a lot of folks, and even distracted from the idea of the presence of a 4-year fractal in bitcoinlandia.

We also know and appreciate that there are a lot of ways that BTC prices can diverge from various price prediction models, and in that regard, the various BTC price prediction models are largely guides rather than absolutes, and sure they are meant to be broken (that is if you can, you bear twats?) ...

Part of the reasons to not panic when you believe that various BTC price prediction models might be broken or are appearing to be broken would be appreciating that there remain goals to assist you in your getting to a loss of belief in bitcoin, so you will shed some or all of your bitcoin at a time that is not be of your own choosing - especially if you were not in a somewhat emotional state of looking at the matter.. it is much more difficult to get longer term bitcoiners to be emotional about their bitcoin, but surely it is not impossible, especially if they have failed/refused to shave off reasonable amounts of BTC at various points on the way up.

The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker
https://twitter.com/scottmelker/status/1422535286073040897?s=21
So far so good. Still looking quite a bit like last December.

Healthy retrace, reset and push?

I don't really disagree with the overall idea of this thread, which just refers a decent possibility that we are going UPpity from here, but we also have to keep in mind that we are not in December 2020 anymore, Dorothy.

Remember December 2020 was first breaking through our previous ATH of $19,666 and thereafter experiencing month after month of new ATH - (5 in a row) including causing some peeps to wrongly conclude that we were going to get a new ATH every month for 2021... and we found that to NOT be true (and I am digressing, I know)...

but what I am saying is that the dynamic of bitcoin is one thing when it is breaking through a previous ATH (that was standing for about 3 years) as compared with when it is getting back to one that may be 5-6 months - depending on when we get there. Remember we were last at an ATH in mid April.. so we are already 4 months out from that.

So in reality our pattern location could be closer to 2013.. .even though 2013 was a whole other beast, too. .in terms of the severity of the drop that went more than 70% almost right away and then got stuck in the duldrums for more than 6 months..with even greater drops but way the hell less adoption or variety of the kinds of investors or even the financial tools available for players on both sides to attempt to play the BTC price in their favor (successful or not).. but even given so many of the differences, we still seem quite likely to find ourselves in previous patterns.. especially with the passage of time and the zooming out and the overlaying of charts that ends up showing similarities that might be hard to see when we are in the middle of them.. even while a lot of us long timers do tend to have pretty decent ideas where this is going, even while there are periods of doubt and the nocoiners, precoiners, fence sitters and understocked newbies continue to be wowed as fuck regarding how bitcoin could continue to go UPpity in spite of all the x, y z and other baloney and largely irrelevant considerations that nocoiners, precoiners , fence sitters and understocked newbies tend to take into account in order to fail and refuse to meaningfully and adequately pee pare their lil selfies for UPpity.

[Macadonian]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

a mere doubling from the current price? and months to do so? i would be (moderately) surprised if it didnt honestly.

Inject this optimism into my VEINS vapourminer

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

On the other hand, I do agree with his overall view about bitcoin being a long term play.. and also his overall perception that bitcoin is going to go up forever, Laura.. but there might be some decently long periods of downity between some of the periods of UPpity.

Yes. Though I lean more towards an s-curve. I just think anyone that gives any weight to twitter is making a mistake.

Agree on both of these points.  

It surprises me that the S-Curve idea seems to be a teeny minority position.  People are much more apt to believe it is going to keep following the 4 year S2F pattern.  And if they discount that they tend to think it will do the "just goes up" version.  Very few people seem to think that it will have a really big runup in the middle of all that.

It's slightly cynical, but these things tend to catch people off guard.  And I think the traders and the people who think just gently DCAing will miss a lot of the move just because it will be fast.  And lot's of folks will sell on the way up with the intention to buy the pop and never recover but a fraction what they sell.

The max pain theory really does support the idea that it moves up fast one big time.

But who knows?  I will be ready for any version, lol.

And yeah.  Twitter is a mess.

I am having trouble understanding why you are tending to put various BTC price prediction models in categories as if it has to be one model or another and they are independent from one another... when the fact of the matter is more likely that bitcoin gives few shits about price prediction models.. even if some will have more tendencies to be on track than others... anyhow...

Part of the exponential s-curve adoption theory remains that it may well be difficult to appreciate or understand while in the midst of it, and even if it is happening for several cycles, it might be difficult to see or appreciate the ongoing upward price pressures, even though it is in the midst of happening, along with 50% to 85% price corrections in the midst of it all.

In other words, stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption can all be happening at the same time and putting ongoing UPpity price pressures upon our wwwwweeeeeeeeeee king daddy... even while continuing to have decently severe price corrections along the way..

Yeah sure, severe price corrections for those who had gotten into BTC at the end of the latest price surge, but not necessarily severe at all for the longer term holders.. We have seen time and time again that a 85% price correction can happen and end up still 3x to 10x in profits merely from the lower arena of the earlier price cycle.. and sure maybe 85% corrections will become way less likely in the future and maybe we ONLY get to 70% price correction or whatever, but who cares?  the volatility becomes less and less over time, but when we are in the midst of all of it and still in the relatively early stages of BTC's adoption (even while peeps are claiming that BTC is mature and well adopted, and blah blah blah), there is no need to completely discount those decently strong BTC price corrections from discontinuing in occurring, even if they may well suddenly become a thing of the past (and less severe).

Better get some BTC now, cAPSLOCK.. you bear.. in case it might catch on.  


 

link from Drudge:
https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/03/people-recovering-from-covid-may-have-substantial-drop-in-intelligence-15030236/

Anecdotally, at least two recovered people who were hospitalized with covid told me that they are in a mental fog several months after release with memory being significantly affected.
This sucks.

Re bitcoin-I feel that if "they" would not allow bitcoin to blossom, we would end up like 20ies Germany, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
A clear fork in the road. Some want to take the road that leads to hyperinflation. We should take the other path and take as many people as possible with us.

 Covid19 commonly results in dehydration which has serious effects on your cognitive abilities.   Also, as people age their sense of thirst is diminished so by the time they feel thirsty, they're already dehydrated.  This is one of the things I have to watch for this in my elderly parents and it upsets me every time I have to take them out for something since they purposely won't drink fluids the morning of because they're afraid they might have to pee while they're out.

Whether you have heart problems or not, doctors start looking for reasons to put peeps on statins in their 40s, and water pills in their 60s.. and sure we cannot forget about some of the diabetes medicines and considerations that may well end up throwing off some hydration matters... and furthermore, salt restrictions come pretty early too.. perhaps too early, and if there is some kind of health issue, there become more and more medical concerns that are expressed so some people concern themselves a quite a bit about water retention and may well end up inadvertently dehydrating their lil selfies.

edit: Case in point - last month I had to take dad for physio and he asked me, "How would you buy Doge?" and I said  "You wouldn't!  Drink some water please."

Nice mix of topics, and surely we know that peeps asking about various shitcoins may well be in a kind of state of delusion.. what the fuck, a pretty damned decent friend of mine, who I had been telling about bitcoin since 2014-ish and she finally said that she was considering researching the matter and taking my DCA advices.. and she said that she can appreciate that she would not be in such a bad position right now (financially) if she had followed a fairly modest version of my advice back then (not that I like to characterize my various insistences as "giving advice").  I sent her some quasi-beginner articles to look at, and her first question before even reading one article was "what about Cardano?"  what do I think about that?  Oh gawd.,. she needs to drink some water too... fuck..

[Richy_T]

El Salvador may become overwhelmed by refugees from the US.

Population 6.5 million. So it would take quite a lot to affect politics there. Perhaps somewhere smaller might be better.

[Richy_T]

They had almost a solid year to purchase btc sub 10k. And most of them didn't do it.

I've come to the conclusion that when people talk to me about crypto, they are looking for validation, not illumination.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I still smell uncertain, doubtful sentiment. The top is past us, at 64k, and similar unlikely moaning.

When we cross 64k it will be epic. Many, many coiners will have a surge of relief and gloat as if nothing had been and they'd been knowing it all along. Sentiment will go berserk. We will rip through new territory on momentum alone. There, we should be wary of a premature ejaculation. Oops, I meant a hasty blow-off top.

If history repeats itself we will have another price correction as soon as we reach another ATH

Even though you are likely correct, no need to think about that part too much until getting there.

In other words, I hope that you, Macadonian, don't sell too much too soon.. .and some people have also already decided to hold through both the UPs and the DOWNs because they are worried about tax consequences and they are also worried that they still do not have enough BTC... so for example, some relative newbies might have a goal to get to fuck you status, but they ONLY have a small number of BTC, perhaps 5 BTC or fewer.. so it takes a while to get to that fuck you status.. and then also to be in a comfortable position through the whole matter.. who wants to get to fuck you status, so for example, you have your 5 BTC, and the BTC prices go to $400k and you sell all your BTC, but then you feel uncomfortable because you have your value in fiat.. so perhaps there might be more security to sell portions of BTC at various prices and to hold a decent amount of value in BTC rather than valuing wealth in dollars and cashing out their BTC.. even though if they are able to time the top, it could be an o.k. thing to cash out some with an expectation of buying back.. but people are worried about playing around with too much of their BTC stack in that kind of selling off too much of it, even if it might be the top for the cycle.

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

We have not gotten past the current poll yet.

Should that current poll be abandoned?

I would say that if the current poll ends up being correct to the upside, then it becomes quite likely for new ATH soon thereafter.. which gosh that resolution of this particular current poll should be this calendar year to resolve the current poll, no?..    We are ONLY in early August, and the current poll should be resolving soon.. perhaps this month?

Of course, if the current poll were to resolve to the downside, then we may well end in a doosey of a year with a lot more shaking of weak hands and even purgenings of quite a bit more froth in other cryptos too.. but to me, it does not seem that the purgenings are necessary.. or even should be greatly likely.. but none of us can really know how some of this could play out in terms of if DOWN ended up coming before UP..... no one likes for 14 year olds or even techies to get free money and to get rich quick, but I am not sure who holds more power here in terms of bitcoin power to continue to cause the gravitation UP, and we know that the shitcoiners are likely hanging on the apron strings the whole time..

So I am not going to say that I know anything (nuttin) in terms of short-term, even though I am still thinking that the odds are that the current poll has better odds of resolving UPpity rather than DOWNity. .but even two weeks ago we were getting close to resolving DOWNity.. so if we get back into the lower $30ks again, how are we going to feel?  We might feel that the current poll is gaining greater odds of resolving DOWNity.. so gosh, don't we need to cross one bridge before pee paring our lil selfies for the next one.. and yeah of course, we should always be prepared for UPpity.. so I am not saying that.. but we do have to get passed one point to more clearly know the answer to the next point.. especially if we are talking in smaller timeframe intervals. .

[shahzadafzal]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

but unfortunately last poll also went unbusted... and this one went so close ($42k) yet so far.... Do not go gentle into that good night.

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?
Answer is Yes yes yes.

Should that current poll be abandoned?

I think we should wait little more.

[Macadonian]

I still smell uncertain, doubtful sentiment. The top is past us, at 64k, and similar unlikely moaning.

When we cross 64k it will be epic. Many, many coiners will have a surge of relief and gloat as if nothing had been and they'd been knowing it all along. Sentiment will go berserk. We will rip through new territory on momentum alone. There, we should be wary of a premature ejaculation. Oops, I meant a hasty blow-off top.

If history repeats itself we will have another price correction as soon as we reach another ATH

Even though you are likely correct, no need to think about that part too much until getting there.

In other words, I hope that you, Macadonian, don't sell too much too soon.. .and some people have also already decided to hold through both the UPs and the DOWNs because they are worried about tax consequences and they are also worried that they still do not have enough BTC... so for example, some relative newbies might have a goal to get to fuck you status, but they ONLY have a small number of BTC, perhaps 5 BTC or fewer.. so it takes a while to get to that fuck you status.. and then also to be in a comfortable position through the whole matter.. who wants to get to fuck you status, so for example, you have your 5 BTC, and the BTC prices go to $400k and you sell all your BTC, but then you feel uncomfortable because you have your value in fiat.. so perhaps there might be more security to sell portions of BTC at various prices and to hold a decent amount of value in BTC rather than valuing wealth in dollars and cashing out their BTC.. even though if they are able to time the top, it could be an o.k. thing to cash out some with an expectation of buying back.. but people are worried about playing around with too much of their BTC stack in that kind of selling off too much of it, even if it might be the top for the cycle.

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

We have not gotten past the current poll yet.

Should that current poll be abandoned?

I would say that if the current poll ends up being correct to the upside, then it becomes quite likely for new ATH soon thereafter.. which gosh that resolution of this particular current poll should be this calendar year to resolve the current poll, no?..    We are ONLY in early August, and the current poll should be resolving soon.. perhaps this month?

Of course, if the current poll were to resolve to the downside, then we may well end in a doosey of a year with a lot more shaking of weak hands and even purgenings of quite a bit more froth in other cryptos too.. but to me, it does not seem that the purgenings are necessary.. or even should be greatly likely.. but none of us can really know how some of this could play out in terms of if DOWN ended up coming before UP..... no one likes for 14 year olds or even techies to get free money and to get rich quick, but I am not sure who holds more power here in terms of bitcoin power to continue to cause the gravitation UP, and we know that the shitcoiners are likely hanging on the apron strings the whole time..

So I am not going to say that I know anything (nuttin) in terms of short-term, even though I am still thinking that the odds are that the current poll has better odds of resolving UPpity rather than DOWNity. .but even two weeks ago we were getting close to resolving DOWNity.. so if we get back into the lower $30ks again, how are we going to feel?  We might feel that the current poll is gaining greater odds of resolving DOWNity.. so gosh, don't we need to cross one bridge before pee paring our lil selfies for the next one.. and yeah of course, we should always be prepared for UPpity.. so I am not saying that.. but we do have to get passed one point to more clearly know the answer to the next point.. especially if we are talking in smaller timeframe intervals. .

What I earn from Bitcoin will be deposited into assets like houses and personal items but my wealth will remain in Bitcoin. If we did get to 400k per coin then why would I ever need to convert back to fiat I would say fuck you to fiat as well as having the status of fuck you money but I do not have enough Bitcoin for that right now not in my life time so I need to accumulate more by setting aside 10k a year to invest in Bitcoin and the rest of my wealth will be used to feed me.

[JayJuanGee]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

but unfortunately last poll also went unbusted... and this one went so close ($42k) yet so far.... Do not go gentle into that good night.

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?
Answer is Yes yes yes.

Should that current poll be abandoned?

I think we should wait little more.

Also, I am kind of speculating that the current poll is largely asking the same question. 

Sure, it is not the exact same question, but I doubt that at this time, the results of the poll that LFC suggests would end up having results that are very different from the results of the current poll, even though the current poll has not been yet answered in terms of facts resolving the presented issue.. $25k first or $50k first?

[Macadonian]

Would love to see a poll here asking -

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?

Yes or No?

I’m just keen to see the sentiment amongst fellow HODLERS.

but unfortunately last poll also went unbusted... and this one went so close ($42k) yet so far.... Do not go gentle into that good night.

Do you think we’ll see another new ATH in 2021?
Answer is Yes yes yes.

Should that current poll be abandoned?

I think we should wait little more.

Also, I am kind of speculating that the current poll is largely asking the same question. 

Sure, it is not the exact same question, but I doubt that at this time, the results of the poll that LFC suggests would end up having results that are very different from the results of the current poll, even though the current poll has not been yet answered in terms of facts resolving the presented issue.. $25k first or $50k first?

I think the poll we have now is better than what LFC said to do because everyone in this topic a part from a couple of members will be voting yes at least we will see what people think the direction is going in with the current poll.