Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713909563]

1713909563

[1713909563]

1713909563

[1713909563]

1713909563

[OutOfMemory]

You see, #hodl is in fact a lifestyle.
You either just fit in, adapt to it, or you stay out.
Now guess what your nocoiner friends/collegues/relatives are like...

Sorry to say that, but you really tried to help them, they didn't listen. Now that they are #HFSP, they have no chance but continue watching from the sideline in apathy.

That comes off as an improper framework.

You seem to be just reiterating the part that almost all of them believe, which is largely:
"bitcoin is like a stock and if it pumps, it can ONLY pump so much, so since bitcoin has already pumped 10x, 1,000x and 10,000x - depending on when beginning the base measurement - it is not capable of pumping more; therefore, I am too late."

That's not true.  They are not too late.

It is true that bitcoin has pumped

It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot

It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier

It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential

It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late


Surely, we can say HFSP (have fun staying poor) but some of those folks will still end up coming around and can still come around - even if BTC pumps another 1,000x from here (that would be $46.6 million per coin), the investment thesis for bitcoin will not disappear, even if it costs more per unit to get it.. whether merely satoshi's can be afforded that time, and our 0.21BTC or our 0.63BTC collections are looking quite sweet at those BTC price levels.

Actually, some people will come around by just creating some kind of account and starting to invest $10 per week... but yes.. it is a whole hell of a lot of work, just to get them to carry out what (to us) seems to be the bare bones basics.

If you want to change your life, you have to act. Waiting is a trap. Especially in regards to get into Bitcoin long term.

Exactly.. that's why some will likely act later.. they are not trapped forever in HFSP.. even though relatively speaking they are going to likely end up being less richie.. but whatever.. we can ONLY do so much to help these normie peeps.. If they are not ready.. they are not ready.. I am not going to walk them through every single step.. especially if they are making too much work for me out of the project.  Of course, if they are showing interest.. and taking a wee bit of a humble pill, then yes, I will help them to set up an account or point them in a direction where they can learn more or even talk through a few of the matters that they might not want to read. but they learn by talking through the matter, but they have to take some actions rather than my having to drag them through each step... for example.. work on sending me a BTC address and then I can send you .00021BTC or something like that.. do something... do something... act excited about the info.. that's a start.

I'm not in the situation to reply to all of this in detail, but i wrote in a way that kind of overexagerrated the apathy part.
Now, i do think some of them will change (in figures of the 20/80 rule). Some problem with groups (co-workers) is, they tend to internally agree and sympathize, so i don't expect the co-workers are able to change their common narratives on Bitcoin.
I think it works more like so: Co-worker A hears from more friends or relatives over time that they discovered, understood and had success with Bitcoin (or "crypto").
He then starts off with a little set-and-forget buy, switches to lump-sum or DCA later, makes the same mistakes most newbies made and becomes a #hodler.
When he is successful and educated enough, he will probably slip into AlcoHODL's role and talk about in the co-worker circle.
It really gets on like in a pyramid scheme, but we know that this comparison/term is bullshit, when it comes to Bitcoin, but at least can push more people to FOMO-in, which is the way PS's work. Atomic social systems, if you know what i mean...

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying OOM.. just I am not sure why you really even need to go down the pyramid scheme analogy path - because there are some built-in appropriatenesses in using that kind of a description of how people might become more convinced about bitcoin.

For sure, there is going to be some blind-word of mouth aspects regarding bitcoin's continued and ongoing adoption - and sure that word of mouth component coupled with the recognition of past profits gets some folks to either blindly go into bitcoin or to go in with those kinds of superficial ideas about helping the pump.

There may well even be a whole hell of a lot of us in this thread who do not really understand bitcoin very well and we are just here because of the NGU (number go up) technology, and I am not even proclaiming that everyone necessarily needs to understand bitcoin beyond the NGU aspects of it.

For sure, it is not even uncommon for a large number of folks to come into bitcoin, and really to know nothing beyond looking at the charts or some other superficial assessment.  I am not really proclaiming my lil selfie to be very much of an exception to the rule except that I was already coming to bitcoin in late 2013 while looking for a dollar hedge and a gold replacement..... but even if I might have had one aspect of what I was looking for that caused aspects of bitcoin to resonate with me, I had continuously been an advocate of continuing to study and to attempt to learn as I went.. in terms of trying to get better understandings of what bitcoin was and part of my attraction to participating regularly in this forum/thread - once I was referred to it.

I do appreciate how there could be various kinds of group think that could end up going from negative to positive and therefore cause a group of associated individuals, such as coworkers to transition and then ending up transitioning based on superficial (and perhaps even nonsense - get rich quick ideas that may or may not end up playing out to their favor), and sure of course, sometimes it might not even matter so much how some individuals get into something like bitcoin because there are some pretty damned strong fundamentals that are likely going to help to gravitate some of the earlier ignorant entrance to begin to recognize and appreciate Gresham's law type principles.. even if they might not be able to articulate that is exactly the sense that they are getting in regards to spending other monies prior to touching their bitcoin.. and then the more and more those Gresham's law principles become known within their consciousness and they might even state them to their co-workers, peers, friends and relatives, - causing some of the Gresham law-type principles to likely also become somewhat contagious too.. even if some of the folks cannot articulate exactly why they are choosing to spend their BTC last (amongst their various spending options) .. and maybe even figuring out ways to NOT spend their BTC until they have exhausted all their other spending options first.

The "pyramid scheme" was an attempt to raise understanding WHY nocoiners still see Bitcoin as such, while the actual happenings (history) of Bitcoin show that it's not really the case.
People tend to simplify (as do i in my argumentation more often than not). It's easier for them to remember the pyramid scheme narrative than educate themselves in Bitcoin, economy and sound money principles. Bringing in the "pyramd scheme argument" was a perfect move and the narrative grew successfully.
Now it's harder to get followers of the "pyramid scheme conspiracy" educated. A (temporary) win for the "fiat society", because people tend to stay with simple explanations and affirmations. Most people do hard to change their beliefs. Give a simple explanation for a complex question (on a complex subject) and the most dumbest guy/gal will "understand".
That is an important factor of AlcoHODL's collegues and relatives NOT really understanding Bitcoin, because they think they already do.

Second biggest factor: Trust.
Humans trust information more, the closer the relation is to the informer. We don't want to be alone, we don't want to decide alone, so we take over narratives from people we look up to, as well as from people we relate to on the "same height of sight" (as we tend to say in my country). While people like us (WO's) are likely seen as freaks by normie nocoiners, they tend to keep trust to information from other normie nocoiners, which form a bigger group they feel related to, while we may seem like mavericks.

In the background it's even more complicated, just wanted to highlight the simple aspects that stand out more.
To keep it short: Peeps either doing something or not, they are basically driven by fear or love. They fear (refuse) things they don't know, they love (accept) things they do know.

Strangely, my attention was always drawn to the unknown (which provided me fantastic experiences in the past and present, by the way).

EDIT: Fuck, missed to break CB triplet by a minute :/

[dragonvslinux]

Now it's getting interested after reclaiming the 0.5 fib retracement level from annual high to local low. The Golden Cross has otherwise confirmed as of yesterday's close, with the 50 Day MA moving above the 200 MA:



On the 4hr chart, the TD/TI Sequential is signalling a sell at the 200 MA, following the death cross of the 50 & 200 MAs. I've left arrows of previous TD 9 Buy/Sell signals for relevance sake:



I'm remaining neutral here for the short-term. I was previously 50-50 on confirming $40K old resistance as new support vs re-testing $50K distribution level.

Weekly remains 90% bullish (with only the 21 MA still trending downwards slightly), while price remains above short to long-term MAs that are all in bullish formation:



Now I'm 55-45 bullish at best for the short-term. Thinking the bullish factors of the Daily/Weekly charts could out-do the shorter-term bearish factors on the 4hr, but is not a requirement here.

Either way, the 50 Week MA that previously acted as support and continues to rise fast and is now in the $38-40K volume support zone. Time is on the side of the bulls.

[OutOfMemory]

RIP Norm.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayH--FXV8jo

Shit. He wasn't that old, was he?
Makes me want to watch all seasons all over again (one of the rare shows i bought all dvd's of).

Jason Lee also was a successful Skateboarder, co-founded a skateboarding brand before he went doing movies through Beverly Hills 90210.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shKJ3kcSkh0

[heslo]

To give an idea of a 2eh investment look at nice piece by fillippone



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5359284.msg57904934#msg57904934

from above


each window is  13x12 = 156 pieces so 20,000/156= 128 windows were added world wide in the last 7 days.



















now that is based on 50-50 new and old gear just saying the new is 128 windows the old would also be the equivalent so 256 windows like the photo above

translation big money companies are investing in infrastructure and gear = very bullish.

This is very true and I know first hand. Without giving too much away for opsec reasons, a mate of mines company is in the business of power generation and depending on the rates and demand at times sometimes it actually COSTS them to get rid of the power they generate. I suggested a while back they use that excess energy to mine bitcoin and it took a while but they actually did their research and just bought 1.5EH of gear that they're rolling out as a test. They have 7 more sites that if this works out they will expand to; this is a company that previously had ZERO exposure to bitcoin. Their plan is to sell off a percentage to cover costs and hold the rest. Could end really well for them and could possibly end in a job for me as well

[Mpamaegbu]

RIP Norm.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayH--FXV8jo

Shit. He wasn't that old, was he?

Death doesn't go by age, does it 🤷

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mpamaegbu]

BTC still respecting the strong support line as indicated with the white horizontal line @40,921.

[fillippone]

This is very true and I know first hand. Without giving too much away for opsec reasons, a mate of mines company is in the business of power generation and depending on the rates and demand at times sometimes it actually COSTS them to get rid of the power they generate. I suggested a while back they use that excess energy to mine bitcoin and it took a while but they actually did their research and just bought 1.5EH of gear that they're rolling out as a test. They have 7 more sites that if this works out they will expand to; this is a company that previously had ZERO exposure to bitcoin. Their plan is to sell off a percentage to cover costs and hold the rest. Could end really well for them and could possibly end in a job for me as well

This is exactly what the company I mentioned in my thread is doing: helping legacy Power producers to integrate their revenue mix by self consuming electricity to mine bitcoin, whiteout any knowledge on the matter.
I don’t know your location, but the guys there have plants all over the Alps, Russia and Chile.

Read it here: ALPS BLOCKCHAIN: mining in Italy from 100% renewable energy


Again:*** I am not involved with that firm***

[marcus_of_augustus]

This is very true and I know first hand. Without giving too much away for opsec reasons, a mate of mines company is in the business of power generation and depending on the rates and demand at times sometimes it actually COSTS them to get rid of the power they generate. I suggested a while back they use that excess energy to mine bitcoin and it took a while but they actually did their research and just bought 1.5EH of gear that they're rolling out as a test. They have 7 more sites that if this works out they will expand to; this is a company that previously had ZERO exposure to bitcoin. Their plan is to sell off a percentage to cover costs and hold the rest. Could end really well for them and could possibly end in a job for me as well

... this is awesome, well done for setting this in motion. I think bitcoin mining has a lot to offer in the way of smoothing out grid operation and thus making grids in net overall more efficient electricity systems.

... especially with the intermittent supply of wind and solar renewables now being added to grids in many regions that is threatening to destabilise operations, bitcoin mining can be used as an easily sheddable baseload that can soak up excess power when required and drop out at peak times

... the people currently slamming bitcoin mining are the usual climate-alarmist nutters who are clueless when it comes to systems engineering and the wholistic analyses needed to fully grok what's going on.

... when free markets are allowed to do their thing, usually it's sufficient for prices to give the correct signals about what is the systemically most efficient way to operate ... but alas with fiat money, central bank interest rate settings, top-down interference for opaque "carbon" reasons, we are closer to command and control economic systems a la Soviet Union, including grid operations, than the classical small-c capitalism and free markets.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/spanish-govt-announces-temporary-tax-cuts-soften-blow-consumers-after-record-power

... I think we are going to start seeing this all over the globe before too long, power prices are going to be the canary in the coalmine for inflation (hyper inflation?) that the central banks have set in motion

... bitcoin will play it's part, mining sets the floor on the bitcoin price and power prices being a major contributor to the average cost of mining bitcoins

... if bitcoin becomes something of a reserve money in the long term the rate of btc/kWh should be asymptotic globally whereby demand for money and demand for energy will be competing in a correlated market ... interesting to see what happens to free market interest rates in that scenario

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

This is very true and I know first hand. Without giving too much away for opsec reasons, a mate of mines company is in the business of power generation and depending on the rates and demand at times sometimes it actually COSTS them to get rid of the power they generate. I suggested a while back they use that excess energy to mine bitcoin and it took a while but they actually did their research and just bought 1.5EH of gear that they're rolling out as a test. They have 7 more sites that if this works out they will expand to; this is a company that previously had ZERO exposure to bitcoin. Their plan is to sell off a percentage to cover costs and hold the rest. Could end really well for them and could possibly end in a job for me as well

This is exactly what the company I mentioned in my thread is doing: helping legacy Power producers to integrate their revenue mix by self consuming electricity to mine bitcoin, whiteout any knowledge on the matter.
I don’t know your location, but the guys there have plants all over the Alps, Russia and Chile.

Read it here: ALPS BLOCKCHAIN: mining in Italy from 100% renewable energy


Again:*** I am not involved with that firm***

None of those countries

[cAPSLOCK]

El Salvador another achievement as half a million population is already using the official wallet Chivo which have $30 of bitcoin as signup bonus
 
Source:  Half a million users using Chivo wallet

It has just adopted it as legal tender and this is growth so many are going to adapt to the same.

I am still holding my breath.  This is a HUGE crossroads for bitcoin.  Either this works or it doesn't.  And if it does the question is how well, and will we be able to keep going?

On my own end, two very notable changes can be seen with my lightning node:

1.  My traffic continues to go parabolic.  I am routing hundreds of payments a day now.  Much more than in the past.
2.  The payment sizes show a real difference.  Seem like people PLAYING with the network, or balancing channels will send small round payments.  I used to see lots of 1000, 10000, 100000 type payments... or little patters like 40005 40006 40007.  Now they are very random, and generally around the $5-$25 range.  The patterns that look like people playijng around are going away (still there but now like 10%) and there are even 10 minute periods of time in which my node routes millions of sats (in the tens of thousands USD value).

So from my vantage point stuff is happening for sure.

The next few months really are critical.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tash]

El Salvador another achievement as half a million population is already using the official wallet Chivo which have $30 of bitcoin as signup bonus
 
Source:  Half a million users using Chivo wallet

It has just adopted it as legal tender and this is growth so many are going to adapt to the same.

Official government wallet, that is a disaster in the making. Bitcoin has no official wallet

The people of El Salvador are protesting against Bitcoin bill
https://cryptoslate.com/the-people-of-el-salvador-are-protesting-against-bitcoin-bill/

[somac.]

Don't know if anyone has been keeping an eye on China of late. But it seems like they may be in the beginnings of a financial crisis. The CCP is still ramping up the crazy tyrannical government thing, and they seem to be playing hard ball with the capitalist side of things and want to reverse the strangle hold that the corporations, particularly finance, have over the country. Of course the funny thing about that is that the CCP created this monster in the first place.

Anyway, I've switched my forced legacy market holdings to 75% bonds, will keep it that way for 2 months, or till a 20% decline in the markets. Even if the CCP doesn't back down and throw the money printers at it, we all know the FED will if this thing spreads, so I wouldn't want to hold out for more than a 20% decline.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-lehman-moment-arrives-13th-anniversary-lehman-bankruptcy-beijing-tells-banks