We (royal that is) have already figured out that your squigglies are quasi-random because they have close to no explanation in regards to their placement.
Go figure...
Well, without stressing much to explain it to you, I will just leave you a chart as to how that "squiggly" white line came about. The circled part was a range that lasted a very long time and eventually turned resistance to support at the price I mentioned earlier. I don't know what your trading patterns are. You may want to educate us on that if you know better.
I have spent plenty of time (and posts in this thread) explaining what I do and have done over the years, which has largely been initially setting goals of BTC accumulation and then after reaching such accumulation goals through DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing (including some front loading) which was largely through 2014 and 2015, thereafter transitioning into a strategy that was meant to focus more on maintenance that involved buying on the way down and selling on the way up as a form of insurance rather than as a way to accumulate more BTC because the BTC accumulation goals had mostly already been met by late 2014-ish.
Largely I would not even consider prudent to enter into the inclusion of selling BTC on the way up until the person has either met or exceeded BTC accumulation targets (which I had considered myself to reach my BTC accumulation goals in late 2014 and to exceed them in 2015), and subsequent BTC price movements locked me into such a position and perspective of my stash in respect to my own personal situation. So if your initial BTC accumulation goal might be 1% to 10% of your overall portfolio, or if you have had created goals to reach higher BTC accumulation levels, those are surely discretionary considerations.
Perhaps at some point anyone could consider the value of his her BTC in terms of the amount of profits, such as at least 2x but could be 3x to 4x or higher depending on personal preferences, so for many of us guys who have average BTC costs in the three digits, there would not be BIG concerns regarding making sure that our BTC portfolios are in sufficient profits to be able to feel comfortable to skim any value on the way up... yet my personal skim on the way up strategy has tended to involve largely small amounts of no more than 1% for every 10% rise at most.. but probably over the years, reducing to amounts that are closer to .5% per every 10% rise, yet my approach to my BTC maintenance has really change in accordance with any kind of attempt to predict the BTC price direction except for presuming that in the long run, the BTC prices are largely going to be going up in accordance with the currently valid BTC prediction models.. not to get caught up with short-term BTC price moves in any kind of meaningful way... except perhaps to criticize others who claim to know which direction that the BTC price is going with any kind of certainty and especially if their approach seems to NOT be adequately accounting for longer term BTC price prediction models.
In any event, from time to time I will assign probabilities to short term BTC price direction that goes beyond 50/50,.. but not too frequently-- especially since my maintenance strategy hardly gives any shits about short-term BTC price movements, even though there is likely some bias towards UP in my own perspective and preferences (at least in the longer term)..
In the end, the strategy of buying BTC on the way down and selling on the way up should never run out of either fiat nor BTC.. and a variety of other ideas and techniques related to setting goals to set and achieve BTC accumulation strategies first that mostly involve DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investments. I do not prescribe to margin trading nor selling BTC in order to buy BTC at a lower price as a BTC accumulation strategy.. except for a supplemental strategy that might be employed if a guy is already way overallocated in BTC. .and presumptively already in considerable profits with those BTC that are owned.
Nonetheless, I understand that some guys believe that they can trade BTC to increase their BTC stash.. even if they have not yet achieved their BTC accumulation goals (so presumptively have also not achieved overallocation in BTC either).. which seems to be a risky manner to attempt to achieve BTC accumulation goals by selling... including that it is likely that ONLY a small quantity of guys are able to employ BTC trading techniques that are actually better than DCA strategies and buying on dip strategies.. so trading has a lot of tendencies to attract fools that are going to end up losing more BTC than they would have been able to accumulate had they merely followed some kinds of more pure and simple DCA strategies.
Should we compare your approach to DCA, Mpamaegbu? If we go by your forum registration date, you have been in BTC since January 2017. So let's look up DCAing into BTC for that period, and let's say that
if you had bought $100 per week in BTC, then you would currently have about 4.88 BTC (about $232.5k) but around 840% profits (around 8.5x - because your investment amount would have been around $24,700). So hopefully any BTC accumulation strategies that you have been employing have been able to achieve similar (if not better) performance than a pure DCA strategy, no?
Once reaching BTC accumulation goals (or presumptively overly-accumulating) then the next stages would be maintenance and liquidation, and I would consider myself to be largely in maintenance stage since about late 2015-ish, even though I had spun my wheels a bit in 2016/2017 in terms of my confidence level regarding whether I felt that I was really in a maintenance stage or was I still trying to accumulate BTC. By early 2017, I became more confident that I did not need to worry about BTC accumulation even though I would still buy BTC on dips from time to time, but the accumulation aspects of my BTC portfolio management was not as much of an emphasis.
In more recent times, I have not been afraid to employ liquidation strategies, even though I have not actually been employing much if any of those strategies. In any event, some of the abilities to consider maintenance and liquidation with a bit of flippancy comes from having had already reached my accumulation goals in late 2014 and then largely overallocated in the 2015-ish timeframe.. without ever really falling out of that over-accumulation position, even though at the same time, Gresham's law causes the spending of less valuable assets and currencies first, so many times there have not been needs to spend BTC in any kind of meaningful way..so it largely continues to grow with the passage of time, whether its in 10x profits at $10k, 30x profits at $30k, 65x profits at $65k or 42x profits at $42k... Is there much of any difference that matters? sure the higher the better, but there is not really any meaningful constrictions in terms of shaving off a few BTC here and there along the way, no?
In any event, each of us should be attempting to tailor our plans and our BTC portfolio management strategies to our own situations.. based on various individual considerations.. that may or may not involve trading BTC because trading tends to be a more advanced strategy (and maybe not even a good idea until after overallocation goals have been reached)... Furthermore, trading may well not be necessarily needed in order to figure out the earlier tailoring aspects around individual considerations of: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to learn along the way to plan and strategize which may well involve tweaking plans from time to time, reallocating, trading and the employment of financial instruments.. the later of which of the trading and employment of financial instruments tend to be more advanced skills (as I keep saying) that may well not be necessary in terms of finding and following long-term BTC investment foundations...
Did you have any specific questions in regards to my approach to BTC?
I already said that I tend to be critical of guys who assign high probabilities to charts (ie squigglies), but that does not mean that the charts might not be helpful in the event that there is some humbleness in interpreting them and assigning probabilities to the squigglies assigned therein that might not cause betting too much on predictions about BTC's short-term price movements.
I don't know what your trading patterns are. You may want to educate us on that if you know better.
Now I feel bad...
Poll
