Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Hello friends! I haven't written for a month because a series of unfortunate accidents which happened to my father during our vacation. His life was in a great danger and it is not over yet. I experienced a big shock and I still haven't completely come out of it. May God save us! I have the support of my faithful friends who have helped us tremendously and continue to do so. Regarding Bitcoin, I am not as happy as before, of course. But when I have a chance, I continue to buy. I will perhaps write more in a few weeks. Stay strong and hodl as long as possible!

I truly hope your father pulls through, and wish you the best.

Material possessions are meaningless. Screw cars, mansions, holidays, and consumer crap. The only thing that matters is health and family, everything else is designed to distract you from this. No bitcoin of mine (more accurately my descendants, I'm just a caretaker) will ever be given to Lamborghini or any other corporation. Needs only and the rest will go to my children, for their needs only, and so on down the line.

Boring.

I hope that your snot-nosed brat descendants are as responsible as you in their treatment of such asset.

I suppose that you could attempt to set up a trust that would restrict their use..

One irony in your having had shown so much damned emotionalism about bitcoin's drop to the lower $30ks and subsequently into the upper $20ks - just a few short months ago is that you should give even fewer shits about such price drops - even if there had been a premature entry into a bear market (which now is seeming to be more confidently a correction rather than entry into a bear market), you should not have been getting so damned emotional over short-term BTC price moves because you are not even looking for your own profit, just the creation of a kind of legacy.. so if you legacy only ends up having $20k in its funds or $10 million.. then that is just a matter of time that will work itself anyhow.. given if your trust is set up based on either a measuring life or if possible perpetual trusts are even possible for normies (considering that you may well be a normie who is struggling like a lot of us with figuring out how to use our new wealth.. to the extent that we are mostly HODLers and considering ourselves as having excessive wealth.. whether 0.21BTC or 0.63BTC or some other target amount).

Regarding bitcoin price performance of the past month...

[...]

...some of my no coiner friends...

they don't see it,
they cannot see it
they don't want to see it

[...]

I'm also amazed at my nocoiner friends/colleagues/relatives' persistent passiveness when it comes to Bitcoin. They laughed at me in 2015, they still didn't listen to me in 2017, they started getting interested in 2020, they are more interested now, but they are still nocoiners and haven't bought a single sat!

Yes.. they are still laughing on the inside, but just don't want to say anything.

Instead, whenever Bitcoin is mentioned, they look at me like rabbits blinded by the light.

cute... none of us are against weeeee cute lil rabbits, here.  Are we?  Maybe Elmer Fudd, but we're not like that in these here parts (perhaps royal we?).
 

Bitcoin is a strange beast. You either get it, or you don't. Maybe some kind of special brain wiring is needed?  

They might need a batman slap, and that might not even work - except to make batman's arm sore from all the slapping.

On the serious side, I do not speculate.

For some people, some thing strikes a nerve right way, there are some people who do have to go through some shitcoining and then it starts to sink in what differentiates bitcoin, and I do still think that there are some people who will come around later... because sometimes certain life events do have to happen for the matrix enlightenment type ideas (if it can even be considered like that?) will start to come through or the ideas that so many of the inferior storage of values cannot keep being pumped through the money printing.. and sure there will be some people who will never really get it, and they don't need to because all they need is that "everyone else is doing it" so therefore "I am going to do it too, even though it costs me $1 per 100 satoshis or $1 per 10 satoshis or whatever the going rate ends up being when "everyone else is doing it" ")

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[philipma1957]

To give an idea of a 2eh investment look at nice piece by fillippone



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5359284.msg57904934#msg57904934

from above


each window is  13x12 = 156 pieces so 20,000/156= 128 windows were added world wide in the last 7 days.



















now that is based on 50-50 new and old gear just saying the new is 128 windows the old would also be the equivalent so 256 windows like the photo above

translation big money companies are investing in infrastructure and gear = very bullish.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

To give an idea of a 2eh investment look at nice piece by fillippone



...


This is a very nice answer to give to someone asking "is it profitable to mine at home?"
Sorry, this is a great example of "back of the envelope calculation". I have to steal it.


















...

Damn I did all this cropping and forgot what to say.


oh I know

mine with gpus at home convert the eth to BTC

My power bill was 1700 July 1 to Sept 14 in my home.

But I mined 3700 worth of btc on nicehash so 2000 usd in 75 days.

all in my garage. with 16 cent power .

The difference for me is if mining falters I can move the gear to our main location.

[JayJuanGee]

Regarding bitcoin price performance of the past month...

[...]

...some of my no coiner friends...

they don't see it,
they cannot see it
they don't want to see it

[...]

I'm also amazed at my nocoiner friends/colleagues/relatives' persistent passiveness when it comes to Bitcoin. They laughed at me in 2015, they still didn't listen to me in 2017, they started getting interested in 2020, they are more interested now, but they are still nocoiners and haven't bought a single sat! Instead, whenever Bitcoin is mentioned, they look at me like rabbits blinded by the light.

Bitcoin is a strange beast. You either get it, or you don't. Maybe some kind of special brain wiring is needed? 

You see, #hodl is in fact a lifestyle.
You either just fit in, adapt to it, or you stay out.
Now guess what your nocoiner friends/collegues/relatives are like...

Sorry to say that, but you really tried to help them, they didn't listen. Now that they are #HFSP, they have no chance but continue watching from the sideline in apathy.

That comes off as an improper framework.

You seem to be just reiterating the part that almost all of them believe, which is largely:
"bitcoin is like a stock and if it pumps, it can ONLY pump so much, so since bitcoin has already pumped 10x, 1,000x and 10,000x - depending on when beginning the base measurement - it is not capable of pumping more; therefore, I am too late."

That's not true.  They are not too late.

It is true that bitcoin has pumped

It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot

It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier

It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential

It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late


Surely, we can say HFSP (have fun staying poor) but some of those folks will still end up coming around and can still come around - even if BTC pumps another 1,000x from here (that would be $46.6 million per coin), the investment thesis for bitcoin will not disappear, even if it costs more per unit to get it.. whether merely satoshi's can be afforded that time, and our 0.21BTC or our 0.63BTC collections are looking quite sweet at those BTC price levels.

Actually, some people will come around by just creating some kind of account and starting to invest $10 per week... but yes.. it is a whole hell of a lot of work, just to get them to carry out what (to us) seems to be the bare bones basics.

If you want to change your life, you have to act. Waiting is a trap. Especially in regards to get into Bitcoin long term.

Exactly.. that's why some will likely act later.. they are not trapped forever in HFSP.. even though relatively speaking they are going to likely end up being less richie.. but whatever.. we can ONLY do so much to help these normie peeps.. If they are not ready.. they are not ready.. I am not going to walk them through every single step.. especially if they are making too much work for me out of the project.  Of course, if they are showing interest.. and taking a wee bit of a humble pill, then yes, I will help them to set up an account or point them in a direction where they can learn more or even talk through a few of the matters that they might not want to read. but they learn by talking through the matter, but they have to take some actions rather than my having to drag them through each step... for example.. work on sending me a BTC address and then I can send you .00021BTC or something like that.. do something... do something... act excited about the info.. that's a start.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[JayJuanGee]

Lark Davis
@TheCryptoLark
BTC golden cross will probably confirm tomorrow

https://twitter.com/thecryptolark/status/1437637730058395649?s=21

But?  What does it mean?

Anyone?

Anyone?


Oh? looks as if dragonvslinux has already anticipated my questions and answered (a mind reader of sorts, nohomo).  Not that I necessarily agree with the conclusions, but surely decent analysis including considering ways to potentially deal with risk of either direction, too  (such as hedging psychologically/financially even if some of us might assign different probabilities to some of the indicators, while at the same time, many of us can also appreciate that there are BIG players out there that have tools in which they are able to at least attempt manipulating the opposite of expectations.. just for shits and giggles.. not saying that they are always going to be successful, that's for sure and sometimes they might consider that they have enough ammunition to play a certain way, and the market ends up recking some of those BIGGER players too - even if they do tend to have enough tools and information about the market to hedge well even when they are attempting to manipulate).

Lark Davis
@TheCryptoLark
BTC golden cross will probably confirm tomorrow

https://twitter.com/thecryptolark/status/1437637730058395649?s=21

Wow, that is really nasty. It can really go in any direction. MA200 can move down or MA50 can move up. Now it's just a question of which player does what.
I'm assuming the worst. And pull out my network cable...

Yeah.. but those lines do not really move very easily.. of course the 50ma can move much easier than the 200ma.. .. and part of dragonvslinux's whole point about the indicators lagging.  

Punchline.. take those squiggly lines (even if they are pronounced as if they have a whole hell of a lot of meaning) with a decently large assed grain of salt...  - especially the shorter term ones.. .. and especially if you are considering them to be anything other than a curious kind of background noise... which seems to be what you are doing bct_ail with your serious pull out the cable strategy.. which is likely novel and going to serve you MOAR better than a variety of other potential approaches during these uncertain short-term times in which many of us are becoming much more richie beyond our imaginations by merely holding BTC, accumulating BTC on dips from time to time and maybe even DCA'ing from time to time (depending where we are at and how long we have been in - including ur lil selfie having at least gone through a whole cycle already, if we can go by your forum registration date). 

Anyhow, we may well be feeling quite good already if we had already reached a decently good-sized stash - whether that would be 0.21 BTC, 0.63 BTC or some other meaningful and significant amount of a BTC stash.

[El duderino_]

Haha lol Jason Derulo song

[shahzadafzal]

Someone just sent $2,000,000,000 USD using #bitcoin  and paid a transaction fee of 0.00001713 $btc, or about $0.80.

That's a transaction fee of ~0.0000000389%

-No trusted 3rd party was requried.
-No Person/Government/Company can stop nor reverse this transaction.

Eighty Cents.

[OutOfMemory]

Regarding bitcoin price performance of the past month...

[...]

...some of my no coiner friends...

they don't see it,
they cannot see it
they don't want to see it

[...]

I'm also amazed at my nocoiner friends/colleagues/relatives' persistent passiveness when it comes to Bitcoin. They laughed at me in 2015, they still didn't listen to me in 2017, they started getting interested in 2020, they are more interested now, but they are still nocoiners and haven't bought a single sat! Instead, whenever Bitcoin is mentioned, they look at me like rabbits blinded by the light.

Bitcoin is a strange beast. You either get it, or you don't. Maybe some kind of special brain wiring is needed? 

You see, #hodl is in fact a lifestyle.
You either just fit in, adapt to it, or you stay out.
Now guess what your nocoiner friends/collegues/relatives are like...

Sorry to say that, but you really tried to help them, they didn't listen. Now that they are #HFSP, they have no chance but continue watching from the sideline in apathy.

That comes off as an improper framework.

You seem to be just reiterating the part that almost all of them believe, which is largely:
"bitcoin is like a stock and if it pumps, it can ONLY pump so much, so since bitcoin has already pumped 10x, 1,000x and 10,000x - depending on when beginning the base measurement - it is not capable of pumping more; therefore, I am too late."

That's not true.  They are not too late.

It is true that bitcoin has pumped

It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot

It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier

It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential

It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late


Surely, we can say HFSP (have fun staying poor) but some of those folks will still end up coming around and can still come around - even if BTC pumps another 1,000x from here (that would be $46.6 million per coin), the investment thesis for bitcoin will not disappear, even if it costs more per unit to get it.. whether merely satoshi's can be afforded that time, and our 0.21BTC or our 0.63BTC collections are looking quite sweet at those BTC price levels.

Actually, some people will come around by just creating some kind of account and starting to invest $10 per week... but yes.. it is a whole hell of a lot of work, just to get them to carry out what (to us) seems to be the bare bones basics.

If you want to change your life, you have to act. Waiting is a trap. Especially in regards to get into Bitcoin long term.

Exactly.. that's why some will likely act later.. they are not trapped forever in HFSP.. even though relatively speaking they are going to likely end up being less richie.. but whatever.. we can ONLY do so much to help these normie peeps.. If they are not ready.. they are not ready.. I am not going to walk them through every single step.. especially if they are making too much work for me out of the project.  Of course, if they are showing interest.. and taking a wee bit of a humble pill, then yes, I will help them to set up an account or point them in a direction where they can learn more or even talk through a few of the matters that they might not want to read. but they learn by talking through the matter, but they have to take some actions rather than my having to drag them through each step... for example.. work on sending me a BTC address and then I can send you .00021BTC or something like that.. do something... do something... act excited about the info.. that's a start.

I'm not in the situation to reply to all of this in detail, but i wrote in a way that kind of overexagerrated the apathy part.
Now, i do think some of them will change (in figures of the 20/80 rule). Some problem with groups (co-workers) is, they tend to internally agree and sympathize, so i don't expect the co-workers are able to change their common narratives on Bitcoin.
I think it works more like so: Co-worker A hears from more friends or relatives over time that they discovered, understood and had success with Bitcoin (or "crypto").
He then starts off with a little set-and-forget buy, switches to lump-sum or DCA later, makes the same mistakes most newbies made and becomes a #hodler.
When he is successful and educated enough, he will probably slip into AlcoHODL's role and talk about in the co-worker circle.
It really gets on like in a pyramid scheme, but we know that this comparison/term is bullshit, when it comes to Bitcoin, but at least can push more people to FOMO-in, which is the way PS's work. Atomic social systems, if you know what i mean...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Love him or hate him, Jbear is a very interesting individual. He and I had several long discussions on music and vintage musical gear. He owns some gear used by Joe Walsh, Elton John, Rick Derringer, Billy Joel. and Michael Jackson.

I won't go into details because he told me this privately.

Yeah I chatted a couple times in this realm as well... I wrote him privately after breaking down and buying a piece of Behringer gear and falling in love with it (Wing) to my great surprise.

The only piece of gear I own with anything like a pedigree is a used mic I paid 100$ for that was supposedly tried out on a J-Lo track and rejected. lol.

As I said I hope he's OK and just got tired of being picked on for BSV...

Part of the potential problems with some of the bcash shills is going to be the extent to which they might hedge or even sufficiently hedge - because at some point aspects of their investment are going to look very stupid, and  when rubber hits the road there could be considerable questions whether there was a sufficient balance in the portfolio to even wind down from having both had taken such a ludicrous position and then even smart people might end up taking one gamble upon another in considering that they have to "make up for" earlier mistakes that they made.

Surely. jbreher had seemed to have been a pretty decently prudent investor, but some of his stances on BSV could have ended up leading him into precarious finances and psychology.. so maybe at some point, unwinding some of his positions might have caused him to conclude to lessen his forum participation - in the vent that there might not have been other matters going on in terms of all of our limitations in our meat wagon - whether we want to believe it or not. 

Personally, I would prefer to attempt to make some kind of an announcement if my meat wagon might be failing me too much to be able to continue to participate herein.. but many of us.. including your truly frequently will consider that even if we are having some health related issues, the passage of time might allow us to improve in our abilities to be able to get back to where we kind of were before.. so sure hopefully, jbreher's health is decently well.. but I also know that he was (not really meaning to speak of him in the past tense.. even though he has not been posting here) no spring chicken.

Wow, that is really nasty. It can really go in any direction. MA200 can move down or MA50 can move up. Now it's just a question of which player does what.
I'm assuming the worst. And pull out my network cable...

COWARD!! come BACK

it is traditional around here to celebrate 85% loses dips with toasts,and memes and tears.

FTFY


The tears part tends to be good for all of us HODLers (not talking royal, here.. #nohomo).. even if dippenings do tend to be a wee bit painful while going through with them.. though I am imagining the dippenings to be less and less painful with the passage of time - especially the longer into BTC, even if the relatively large scale dips are likely to continue for several more cycles.. that's my sense.

[serveria.com]

Someone just sent $2,000,000,000 USD using #bitcoin  and paid a transaction fee of 0.00001713 $btc, or about $0.80.

That's a transaction fee of ~0.0000000389%

-No trusted 3rd party was requried.
-No Person/Government/Company can stop nor reverse this transaction.

Eighty Cents.

... one of the reasons we love king Daddy! 

[El duderino_]

proof of sh*tcoins, Solana is down, restart initiated 

[Phil_S]

update:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

Explanation

These steady 45-47 numbers are working along with gentle diff raises .

I feel there is a controlled dampening of price due to lack of chips.

[fillippone]

To give an idea of a 2eh investment look at nice piece by fillippone

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5359284.msg57904934#msg57904934

from above

each window is  13x12 = 156 pieces so 20,000/156= 128 windows were added world wide in the last 7 days.




now that is based on 50-50 new and old gear just saying the new is 128 windows the old would also be the equivalent so 256 windows like the photo above

translation big money companies are investing in infrastructure and gear = very bullish.

Now, I liked your "back of the envelope" calculations, I had to set up a proper Google Spreadsheet.
Of course, my results are a little bit different, but I might have messed some details:

How many "Valstagna Windows" equate to the most recent difficulty update?
Check here.

[El duderino_]

The dude tired AF….

HODLsleep highly recommended.

Have a good HODL friends.









Edit… or whiteout HIGHLY, then it would be a HAIKU