Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aysg76]

A country with 6.4 million population who have made btc as legal tender,holding 700 bitcoins,200-300 Bitcoin ATM and now 2.1 million users using Chivo wallet is surely not going to be poor and backward economy but will emerge as one of the strongest country with strongest legal currency Bitcoin

Get up guys and leave behind all persons grudges and just Hold or buy these dips as they are not coming back.Buy at some discounted rates so you won't regret in future.

This China FUD is temporary but more important matters are corporation, retail and small shops investing and accepting bitcoin.Just look at positive factors ignoring all these bullshits which will provide you profits.Make DCA investment if doing discussion about it.

[1715260270]

1715260270

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

Looking at the charts
Some bubbles in the corn field
Summer in winter?




#haiku

[cygan]

today there is the federal election in germany and here is one of the many ballot papers with 'i vote Bitcoin'

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin is on track
El Duderino is back
I'm hitting the sack

(Yeah I know, not my best work).

I dunno.. A rhyming Haiku is sort of special.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://twitter.com/blockworks_/status/1442140065132474372?s=21

Full article - https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2021/09/25/chinas-supposed-bitcoin-ban-fails-to-crash-market-as-twitter-adds-crypto-payments-in-historic-first/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[calchuchesta]

Bitcoin spent trolling bulls 3 years by constantly creating fakeouts. Im not convinced the bull phase is over until ATH. It could trick people into buying again the 200 MA breakout only to crash again. The fundamentals aren't also fantastic to say the least. We have the China ban which I think is underrated (this time it's not the same as previous bans, this is total prosecution of any crypto activity) and we have the Evergrande situation. I just don't see it. We'll see what the FED does with the rates. If the SP500 fails to break to the upside that's even more bearish pressure because like it or not, BTC continues to be quite correlated with the market.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Sunday, and I'm bored.
Feeling all bothered and hot.
Vax clotting my blood?

Peace, brothers, peace yo!
We're all on the same side, no?
No vax can kill WO!

See, in these here parts,
We buy the dip when it dumps,
And have sex with ants!

#haikusthatrhime

[cAPSLOCK]

https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/09/the-snake-oil-salesmen-and-covid-zero.html

This is so under-merited.
Everyone should really read this. Thank you jojo, everything in one place.

Very low quality antivaxxer shit. Using a couple of real facts to make is look trustworthy to cover up the rest 99% which is a huge pile of BS.

Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with? Attacking the author as "just" and agricultural advisor is immaterial. What Specifically do see as BS? I see very little, personally, that is counter to what I have known about virology, immunology, and yes, agricultural husbandry for many years. Do you want my personal credentials? GFY! Opsec.
Why not look into the credentials of Dr. Robert Malone? Or better yet, look a little deeper into the track record of Dr. Anthony Faucci... (how many died due to his stubborn insistence that HIV could be treated with a single miracle cure rather than a strategic regime of therapeutic & symptom based treatment?)


Serious questions: What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment?  

My own father (the best man I ever knew) died from Covid policies in June 2020 even though he was tested 4 times and came up negative every time. His bronchioscopy that was scheduled as a follow-up after his successful radiation treatment had eradicated his stage 1 cancer was canceled. His pulse-ox readings were dropping into the 80-85% range. But because he was Covid negative, and since covid protocol would not allow his regular Dr's, those familiar with his specific conditions, to see him or be involved in his treatment, he was quickly discharged and put on oxygen. 8 days after his 70th birthday after being discharged from the hospital 4 times, he sat up on the edge of his bed and told my mother, "I can't breathe!" The irony of his last words, in June of 2020, "I can't breathe!" He then fell over and bled out from the aneurysm in his left lung that had grown to the point of rupturing since it was first detected in October of 2019. His Oncologist felt that it was more important to continue his treatments at that time, but wanted to look back with a bronchioscopy in February or March... Our hospitals were never overwhelmed, but the medical industry lost its collective mind! My father never had Covid-19 as my wife and I were very careful to avoid exposing him or my mother as we both went through it in May. He never had it, but it killed him just the same. I did have it, it sucked. And it cost me an additional 6 weeks of time with my father. 6 weeks of his last 8.

I had it, I beat it, and I have been exposed numerous times since. Because when the world shut down and my wife was furloughed I was needed much more urgently. After 18 months of working 50+ hours per week and traveling at least 1 week out of every month, I'm tired and maybe a bit cranky! But you tell me to "trust the science" "listen to the professionals" & "take the jab" FUCK YOU! The science tells me I already have natural immunity and due to my genetic predisposition to cardiovascular issues and blood clots, the science tells me this vaccine is not offering enough benefit to outweigh the risks. My wife went ahead and got the Pfizer vaccine. She has a genetic autoimmune issue that made it seem sensible for her even though she had already beaten Covid in early 2020. Of course that was when it was deemed 94% effective 🙄 and she has since developed a heart murmur that nobody can explain. Probably not related, but who knows?

So yea it kinda matters to me personally, so tell me Specifically, what do you see as being BS?

I've tried to avoid this topic because this is a Bitcoin conversation, (and because it's a bit of an emotional topic for me) but I greatly appreciated the link that was posted as I found it very helpful to see my own thoughts and knowledge expressed so succinctly. But you insist that it's 99% BS, and dismiss it. NO, Specifically what is factually untrue or even misleading?

Thank you for sharing your ability to see nuance in this mess.  It encourages me that there are some folks who can still think critically and are not just falling into one or the other camp of extremes "Covid is a hoax"<--->"Trust the science".

It remains relevent to Bitcoin as this journey we are being taken on most certainly has a huge financial component, and I believe Bitcoin threatens exactly those powers who are either causing or using this crisis for/to their ends.

I am sorry for the loss of your father.

[cAPSLOCK]

The red curve on the big chart shows bitcoin's centered 100 week geometric mean.  A transform revealed an apparent sine pattern in the geomean, seen in the upper corner chart.  The yellow sine wave is my best fit.
The lower corner chart converts back into price domain and extrapolates the sine wave.  Indication:  we might have a couple of years of bearish action, but not a dire crypto winter.

I hate that this chart makes so much sense.   I mean... it's bullish in the big picture... but 2 years of consolidating here?  *sigh*.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Gotta start loading up guns into the back of the truck; Rick and I are trekking out to the ranch to have some fun...

... but yeah, about this Lightning stuff... So, I opened a "Wumbo" channel with LOOP. The channel got entirely drained from my side to their side.  The channel was co-operatively closed, apparently.

My settled balance is WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY BELOW what I put into it.

Did LOOP just rob me of near 0.17 BTC?

WTF?

If I am reading you right there are three possible scenarios.

1.  The value you lost in that channel was exactly gained in another one (or ones) that is still open.  *unless*---
2.  You spent the amount you are now "missing". (In this case the value stops in someone ELSE's channel)
3.  You channel partner broadcast an incorrect channel state and ripped you off.

The chance of it being number three is EXTREMELY low, and I would bet a lot that you have not been ripped off.  And unless you have SPENT 0.17ish BTC using your node then you should be able to see the total outgoing liquidity remaining the same minus anything you have SPENT. When you spend it should increase your INCOMING liquidity.  It is most likely to be a combination of 1 and 2. But unless you have been on a spending spree along with a channel opening spree then it is mostly #1.


For example, I opened a channel with you for 5 million sats.  (You also opened a channel with me with 5 million sats. We are 100% redundant, but that is ok lol)  My channel has been swept over to your side almost entirely.  So if we cooperatively closed that channel you would get almost all the corn.  In fact both channels look like this.  If we closed them both you would get something like 9.3 million sats.

But I have not LOST the other 4.3 that I put into the channel (or whatever I think my math might be off a little) because it has ended up in other channels as liquidity that I would GAIN if I closed THOSE channels.  In RTL the # to watch is this one:




The only thing that changes that number is SPENDING or EARNING Sats.  If you pay someone, or take a payment that number will go down or up respectively. (Also fees will trickle it up/down).  But ROUTING Sats is a net zero transaction aside from the fees.

One caveat.  I *do* think RTL will drop that number when a partner node goes offline... but those SATS are still yours just not part of your liquidity.  So make sure to also take into account local balances on offline channels.  Here is one with a majority local balance and offline:



This silly little channel is one of my oldest.  I do not know if they, or I opened this 350k sat channel.  Over it's life it has moved ~10x it's value back and forth.  If it were totally dead, I'd close it.  But I am keeping it to see if it keeps getting used more with MPP becoming a thing.

Clear as mud? lol.

[eXPHorizon]

By 2050 it is predicted that every human being will have abnormal levels of Plastic and Radioactive isotopes in their Bodys therefore damaging the nucleus of DNA....

[JayJuanGee]

In fact, the more people there are that believe the S2F model definitely will happen, the more that whale traders will have an incentive to NOT make it happen and do the opposite, fucking over both leveraged longs and shorts, and trying to shake out more weak-handed hodlers.

Actually, I largely agree with the total concepts of your post (including the portions that I snipped out), and I also recognize that you have some tendencies to ascribe "manipulation" to seemingly normal market tendencies and behaviors - even though you have gotten off of so much reliance on those angles in recent times.  Surely, I am also NOT trying to be combative; just pointing out some angles that I have been seeing in the substantive tendencies of your posts.

I do consider that you have highlighted a relatively interesting phenomena/dynamic in which powers that be are faced with some differing dynamics when they aim their targets at bitcoin manipulation based on both the immaturity of the bitcoin product and also aspects of bitcoin's fundamentals that some traditional market manipulators are striving to grapple with (and perhaps some of them are learning new techniques along the way that might work in bitcoin better than those same techniques would work in traditional markets/asset classes).

So surely the $million question remains whether bitcoin will still end up springing back to something like the S2F model in spite of strenuous efforts (and a lot of resources) striving to invalidate the S2F model.  I am surely all in agreement with you in terms of identifying that there are some likely high stakes traditional manipulators that feel that they have quite a bit to lose based on bitcoin success and ongoing success so they are willing to NOT pull any punches when dealing with bitcoin manipulation and to throw a lot of resources at such "problems," yet in spite of such spent efforts, what's going to happen?  Will bitcoin revert to something like S2F .. or perhaps S@F gets shifted downwardly on its curve projections a wee bit, but still does not invalidate S2F - beyond appearing that it is invalidated in the short term or even for one or two 4-year cycles and then at some point when we look back at the whole matter instead of doing something like what S2F had projected, we end up having a 1/3 performance level that resembles S2F, but really does not invalidate it beyond the need to shift the price projection curve downward by the necessary amount.

[cAPSLOCK]

Did LOOP just rob me of near 0.17 BTC?

Even if they didn't, the fact you don't know is definitely concerning.

What are you concerned about?

It should not be the lightning network in my opinion.  And knowing Bob, you will not need to be concerned about a lack of understanding for very long.

It is not impossible for someone to try to broadcast an incorrect channel state.  But it is HIGHLY unlikely for several reasons.  And Bob has all the data he needs to do the accounting for his node.

1.  BTC in/out on chain, and used to open channels
2.  On chain balance
2.  Channel balances
3.  Record of income and expenditures.

All those things should balance.  And do 100% on my 2 year old node.

It is true that lightning is more convoluted than the base layer.  Just as a set of bank accounts is more complicated than a gold bar.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/09/the-snake-oil-salesmen-and-covid-zero.html

This is so under-merited.
Everyone should really read this. Thank you jojo, everything in one place.

Very low quality antivaxxer shit. Using a couple of real facts to make it look trustworthy to cover up the rest 99% which is a huge pile of BS. Looked up the author: why do you believe someone who's only work experience is a self employed agriculture consultant? You don't believe scientists, infectologists, pharma professionals but you do believe a retired agriculture consultant? Truly people believe what they WANT to believe.  

So instead of attempting to refute the specific facts and concepts presented by the author, you instead ad hominem attack the author and dismiss it all.

Typical pro-vaxxer bullshit.

I don't have time to spoon-feed you. You have to use your own brain. Basically it's just one big lie. All "facts" are purely SOMA kind of statements. No sources, no references.

Actually the onus is on you to point out the specific so-called "lies". Point them out. Be specific.

He starts out with a particular standpoint on a subject and collects "facts" that fit that premise and disregards those that do not. That's not how science or decent investigative journalism works.

Ok, so which ones? Be specific.

How in the world I'm attacking the author? By exposing the fact that he's not an expert and is not competent in this field? Mmmkay...  

Ok, let's be more specific. Even the headline is full of BS and lies:

The Snake-Oil Salesmen and the COVID-Zero Con: A Classic Bait-And-Switch for a Lifetime of Booster Shots (Immunity as a Service)

Snake oil is a well-known scam, a fraudulent cure, a fake panacea. It implies that vaccines are not doing what they were advertised to do. In fact, it means the vaccines are useless. So what exactly vaccines are not doing as promised? Has anyone promised you that you won't be able to get Covid after the vaccination? So can vaccine be compared to snake oil? Or it's a lie and a massive anti-vaxxer BS? The fact is that vaccinated people have lower chances to get covid than unvaccinated. Judging by local stats I've been studying out of every 1000 infected only about 200 are not vaccinated or had only 1 shot. It's a difference isn't it?

As to the second part, I have already mentioned that nobody is going to force you to take the third (fourth, fifth etc) shot. In fact, many governments and doctors point out that it will be optional for peeps with weakened immune system. Hell, what are you talking about? Governments are pathetic they can't even force antivaxxers to receive the first shot and you're saying 3rd shot is mandatory? How delusional is that? Have you heard of anyone in any country of the world receiving a mandatory appointment for the 1st, 2nd or 3rd shot? Besides, pandemic will come to an end soon so it will not be necessary anyway. So, another lie?  

[serveria.com]

Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with? Attacking the author as "just" and agricultural advisor is immaterial. What Specifically do see as BS? I see very little, personally, that is counter to what I have known about virology, immunology, and yes, agricultural husbandry for many years. Do you want my personal credentials? GFY! Opsec.
Why not look into the credentials of Dr. Robert Malone? Or better yet, look a little deeper into the track record of Dr. Anthony Faucci... (how many died due to his stubborn insistence that HIV could be treated with a single miracle cure rather than a strategic regime of therapeutic & symptom based treatment?)

Serious questions: What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment?  

My own father (the best man I ever knew) died from Covid policies in June 2020 even though he was tested 4 times and came up negative every time. His bronchioscopy that was scheduled as a follow-up after his successful radiation treatment had eradicated his stage 1 cancer was canceled. His pulse-ox readings were dropping into the 80-85% range. But because he was Covid negative, and since covid protocol would not allow his regular Dr's, those familiar with his specific conditions, to see him or be involved in his treatment, he was quickly discharged and put on oxygen. 8 days after his 70th birthday after being discharged from the hospital 4 times, he sat up on the edge of his bed and told my mother, "I can't breathe!" The irony of his last words, in June of 2020, "I can't breathe!" He then fell over and bled out from the aneurysm in his left lung that had grown to the point of rupturing since it was first detected in October of 2019. His Oncologist felt that it was more important to continue his treatments at that time, but wanted to look back with a bronchioscopy in February or March... Our hospitals were never overwhelmed, but the medical industry lost its collective mind! My father never had Covid-19 as my wife and I were very careful to avoid exposing him or my mother as we both went through it in May. He never had it, but it killed him just the same. I did have it, it sucked. And it cost me an additional 6 weeks of time with my father. 6 weeks of his last 8.

I had it, I beat it, and I have been exposed numerous times since. Because when the world shut down and my wife was furloughed I was needed much more urgently. After 18 months of working 50+ hours per week and traveling at least 1 week out of every month, I'm tired and maybe a bit cranky! But you tell me to "trust the science" "listen to the professionals" & "take the jab" FUCK YOU! The science tells me I already have natural immunity and due to my genetic predisposition to cardiovascular issues and blood clots, the science tells me this vaccine is not offering enough benefit to outweigh the risks. My wife went ahead and got the Pfizer vaccine. She has a genetic autoimmune issue that made it seem sensible for her even though she had already beaten Covid in early 2020. Of course that was when it was deemed 94% effective 🙄 and she has since developed a heart murmur that nobody can explain. Probably not related, but who knows?

So yea it kinda matters to me personally, so tell me Specifically, what do you see as being BS?

I've tried to avoid this topic because this is a Bitcoin conversation, (and because it's a bit of an emotional topic for me) but I greatly appreciated the link that was posted as I found it very helpful to see my own thoughts and knowledge expressed so succinctly. But you insist that it's 99% BS, and dismiss it. NO, Specifically what is factually untrue or even misleading?

I don't have time to spoon-feed you. You have to use your own brain. Basically it's just one big lie. All "facts" are purely SOMA kind of statements. No sources, no references.

So your father has passed away that's sad but why do you blame C19 for it? I have a feeling most antivaxxers (the ones who were not antivaxxers before 2020) have become antivaxxers after something bad happened in their lives. Lost a job in tourism industry? Blame Covid! Lost a relative due to some other disease? Blame Covid! Lost a night club or restaurant related business? Blame Covid! People just seem to need an enemy. Covid is a virus so it has no owner or CEO or whatever (just like BTC does). You can't blame a virus right? But my government is saying I should stay home. Blame government! Or let's say the virus was artificially created by China! Blame China! Or big pharma is not giving away vaccines for free? Blame big pharma!  

If you wife has an autoimmune disease she made a wise choice. She'd most probably die from Covid. You know that Covid is 9-12 times more likely cause blood clots than vaccines?  

Staying alive is not big enough benefit for you?  

No pandemic can last forever. No one is forcing you to take unlimited booster shots. In fact many governments and doctors are against it and claim only people with weak immunity should take extra jabs.

And finally: if you trust a cow breeder as your doctor/medical advisor then why not let your car mechanic fix your teeth? Or your plumber examine your wife's genitals in a gyno checkup? And I thought that was clear for everyone with IQ above 50...  

I didn't ask you to spoon feed me, as I said this essay agrees with my understanding of things. I have used my brain and knew a majority of what was said there-in before I read it. I asked very specific questions and you dodged them completely and then proceeded to blather on with a series of straw men & insults, so yea, answer seems to have been given by your refusal to answer and Fuck You very much!

And NO, I do not blame Covid for my father's death. I thought I was clear about that, HE NEVER HAD IT! I blame the stupid reactions, fear mongering, and economic shutdown imposed upon us by brainless diptwats like yourself who blindly scream trust the science to support destructive societal changes that have absolutely NOTHING to do with Science! So I guess it would be much more sensible to say I Blame You for my father's death rather than C19. And NO I am NOT an "Antivaxxer" I am up to date on my mumps, measles & rubella as well as tetanus and a couple others. I never had to get the chicken pox vaccine because I had already gotten chicken pox as a kid... Just Like I have Already Gotten & FULLY RECOVERED from Covid. So why subject myself to additional risk (as small as it may be) when I already have immunity that has proven to be far more effective than the vaccine? And NO my wife does NOT have an autoimmune disease, and as I said she has already had and recovered from Covid as well so she "most probably" WON'T die from Covid you dumb fuck! (Reading comprehension troubles eh? Explains a lot!) Yes I made my decision as to what gave me the best odds of staying alive. Granted part of my decision was determined by the fact that everyone recommending the vaccine was using provable lies for support and refusing to account for my particular circumstances, having already achieved immunity and genetic factors. By the way, my Dr. completely agrees with my decision but warns that it may end up coming down to a matter of convenience as opposed to best personal health practices.
So I don't know where you got your straw man about a cow breeder as a health advisor. But since I do all my own auto repair, and also do far more daily to maintain my oral heigene than anyone else and since I also do my own plumbing work... Why don't you just Fuck Right Off if you're not going to answer the questions I posed?

What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment?  Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with?

Ok enough of this vaccine talk. I can't change you you can't change me. In the UK, over 90% of population have had at least one shot already. Other countries to follow. So it's over. Let go. You lost. You're the minority here, accept it.  

Yours truly,
Lab Rat
#nohomo