Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

For the time being, if you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.

 

Plagiarist!

 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306

Its not, we are all Satoshi!

And you can't prove hes not.

For sure d_eddie is 99% more worth being a real Satoshi as the rest of all the F***up’s in this world

[JayJuanGee]

Crypto analyst PlanB

Hm?  I did not know that Plan B analyses anything other than bitcoin.

Why would any of us want to use a vague-ass term, such as "crypto" when we are trying to talk about bitcoin, and someone who analyses bitcoin?

I suppose "technically" if at any point in time, PlanB had actually analyzed any shitcoin - which probably he has done that, then "technically" it would be accurate to label him as a "crypto" analyst... but the way more accurate term would be to proclaim that he is a bitcoin analyst.. bitcoin is his focus, so why not use the most accurate word instead of propagating nonsense and fuzzy thinking to suggest that PlanB is in the business of analyzing anything other than having bitcoin as his main focal point (aka point of reference).

Beginner mistake no?  Should we call that strike one, or are we further down the road in terms of strikes?  or do we just say "that one does not count?"  hahahahahaha.. you get a pass on that?  hahahahahaha  



Hm?  






contemplating the matter..





computing ...






computing....

insists that the price of bitcoin (BTC) will hit $98,000 by the end of November, even as markets fall sharply.



Source: https://news.banana-coin.org/planb-insists-bitcoin-will-hit-98000-by-end-of-november-even-as-markets-fall/

Of course, many folks appreciate that I give a lot of credence to PlanB and his model, but seems erroneous to me for anyone to be insisting that king daddy has to perform x amount in y time blah blah blah.. even if he ends up being right, we are dealing with aspects of human behavior and some other complex variables contained therein, so in that regard, even if there may well be strong forces that are acting upon bitcoin supply that thereby push BTC prices, economics remains a soft science.. so the science and maths are probabilistic rather than very high levels of certainty that even approach "have to" descriptors..... so hypothetically maybe I could be getting the prediction wrong personally if I were to be ONLY assigning 42% odds (or whatever my odds are?), but maybe at best he is able to assign 80% odds because he has better access to facts and logic, but still 80% is not 100% or even close to 100%... so it does irritate me a bit when peeps overly assign odds, unless there are likely also peeps who are goating PlanB into such assertions or spins upon his work to make them sound as if they have higher certainties than they do.  

Crypto analyst PlanB insists that the price of bitcoin (BTC) will hit $98,000 by the end of November, even as markets fall sharply.

If you've read the article, then it's pretty clear that he's not insisting on, but trying to explain that the $98k price by the end of this month is based on what he calls a "floor model.". The S2F model predicts an average price of $100k in this cycle.

I'm not sure how reliable your source is, but somehow it seems to me that bananas and crypto news don't go very well together

In a tweet, however, PlanB explains that he uses three different models and the $98,000 target for November was not based on the stock-to-flow model. Instead, it is premised on what he calls the “floor model”, which relies on price and on-chain data.

“If, for example, $98K November floor model predictions fails, that does not mean stock-to-flow fails,” he insisted. PlanB clarified that the S2F for the current bitcoin cycle would be an average of $100,000, and on account of this, it may be difficult to know exactly at what price the model could be invalidated.

I'm particularly amused by the description of the floor model as relying on price and on-chain data.. err, so that would be just the same as the S2F model uses then ... sorry but the S2F model does seem to encourage constant obfuscation.

That is ridiculous tertius993.  The stock to flow model is amongst the best of the currently valid and credible BTC price prediction models, and surely it has some defects, and personally I believe that it is best coupled by 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles - and so just proclaiming that the model is deficient in some kinds of ways (obfuscation in your words) seems as if uie-pooie are either detached from reality, in denial or just getting caught up on personalities... .. fuck PlanB to the extent that he might be bolstering in various ways, yet his data and his various models still speak volumes whether you want to account for them, negate them or not or even to spin your own nonsense (could they be described as models?  the planB is obfuscating model?).. have fun staying poor..  

I'm particularly amused by the description of the floor model as relying on price and on-chain data.. err, so that would be just the same as the S2F model uses then ... sorry but the S2F model does seem to encourage constant obfuscation.

Highlighting the logical fallacy:

A bunch of wealthy investors gathered in a room, all looking at the S2F model, then asking each other: "So when are all you other wealthy investors going to raise the bitcoin price to $98k/btc by November? The S2F chart says that you have to, so when exactly? I need to know before I buy!"  

Oh gawd....

which ones of you are worse...

Option 1)
tertius993

or

Option 2)
Torquey porkey

[naim027]

Crypto analyst PlanB

Hm?  I did not know that Plan B analyses anything other than bitcoin.

Why would any of us want to use a vague-ass term, such as "crypto" when we are trying to talk about bitcoin, and someone who analyses bitcoin?

I suppose "technically" if at any point in time, PlanB had actually analyzed any shitcoin - which probably he has done that, then "technically" it would be accurate to label him as a "crypto" analyst... but the way more accurate term would be to proclaim that he is a bitcoin analyst.. bitcoin is his focus, so why not use the most accurate word instead of propagating nonsense and fuzzy thinking to suggest that PlanB is in the business of analyzing anything other than having bitcoin as his main focal point (aka point of reference).

Beginner mistake no?  Should we call that strike one, or are we further down the road in terms of strikes?  or do we just say "that one does not count?"  hahahahahaha.. you get a pass on that?  hahaha hahaha.

Don't you think "Bitcoin" is a "Crypto"?
I believe bitcoin is crypto so we can write crypto analyst.
If not, then I can say I am not a robot but a human being. So i can do mistakes.

BTW, Is it your habit to twist every word? no offense, Just curious.

[JimboToronto]

Don't you think "Bitcoin" is a "Crypto"?

Technically Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but that's like calling human beings animals.

Yes, technically we're animals but we like to differentiate between humans and subhuman species.

Similarly, we like to differentiate between Bitcoin and sub-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I don't usually engage bots but for the audience I will point out that I was the first person to allude to JJG's bot patterns which has spiraled since and if whoever is running this thing had bothered to do any research of this thread at all they would know that.

Oh gawd Hueristic...

Get a grip.

the first? 

Oh come on....



By the way, I will admit that you Hueristic, have a pretty long history of harping on nonsense (relatively speaking), including but not limited to that particular issue (which yeah seems to be part of the point that you are making).. as a seemingly form of goading.. but your claim to "first" status comes off as a wee bit muchie.. even for this here semblance of a peep wannabe.

I wouldn't mind if Bitcoin reaches $100k within 2022 instead of 2021.

What I would not like is another ice-cold Bitcoin winter, like 2018-2020. I'd still HoDL, but it would get pretty boring. $100k is, for me, a level when I'd slowly start spending "tiny" amounts for pleasure and dreams-come-true stuff. But not before it reaches $100k. It's just a psychological threshold for me. It used to be $50k, but I've decided to double up for safety, so that I have a 100% safety margin.

Plan B's S2F model is nice, and I hope corn price follows it, but nothing is guaranteed when it comes to King Daddy. Predicting what will happen, based on any model, is of no use to me, as I won't be buying or selling anything based on such info. So I just sit back, relax, and wait it out.

2021? 2022? It's a when, not an if, and that's what matters.

Overall I do get the various points that you are making, yet I believe that you may well be even misstating some of your own ways of learning along the way and tweaking your thinking on the king daddy topic. 

What I am trying to say is that you are someone who monitors the overall bitcoin situation, and sure there might not be BIG changes in what is happening behind the bitcoin scenes whether facts, logic or any combination of such; however, I would suggest the fact that you both UPped your "action" threshold from $50k to $100k and your ongoing determination to NOT adjust or tweak your decision has to do with a variety of factors and indictors and perhaps also based on what a variety of convincing people in the BTC space are continuing to say about bitcoin, so sure, maybe you are not triggered into making any further changes, and sure maybe what PlanB says only plays on you in less than 10% arenas, but still there are likely these kinds of ongoing discussions that could cause you to change your threshold if the information were to change.. I think so.. even if you want to deny it until the cows come home.. 
 hahahahahaha  #nohomo.

I wouldn't mind if Bitcoin reaches $100k within 2022 instead of 2021.

What I would not like is another ice-cold Bitcoin winter, like 2018-2020. I'd still HoDL, but it would get pretty boring. $100k is, for me, a level when I'd slowly start spending "tiny" amounts for pleasure and dreams-come-true stuff. But not before it reaches $100k. It's just a psychological threshold for me. It used to be $50k, but I've decided to double up for safety, so that I have a 100% safety margin.

Plan B's S2F model is nice, and I hope corn price follows it, but nothing is guaranteed when it comes to King Daddy. Predicting what will happen, based on any model, is of no use to me, as I won't be buying or selling anything based on such info. So I just sit back, relax, and wait it out.

2021? 2022? It's a when, not an if, and that's what matters.

So the Best Solution is HODL

NOT!!!!!


The best solution is to NOT be proclaiming what is best into simplistic formulas or assertions but instead to try to learn from your surroundings (including in this thread) to tailor what you are doing to your own situation. 

For example, if you don't have a sufficient quantity of BTC then the best solution may well be to be buying like a mudder... and if you don't have a lot of cashflow or resources, then the best solution may well be to tailor a reasonable and prudent plan that works for you and your financial/psychological situation.

There are a lot of other examples in which variations of other behaviors/actions may be justified and may or may not include HODL..

When that 10k daily candle?

Actually $10k or $20k from here does seem possible.. whether we have to wait further or not remains in the air...


Gonna happen?

Gonna happen?

show us king daddy.



 

[sirazimuth]

Crypto analyst PlanB

......

Don't you think "Bitcoin" is a "Crypto"?
I believe bitcoin is crypto so we can write crypto analyst.
If not, then I can say I am not a robot but a human being. So i can do mistakes.

BTW, Is it your habit to twist every word? no offense, Just curious.

Godamn! I can almost hear Jay's ballistic keyboard tapping in the distance....

[El duderino_]

Price more green again,
time to leave T A aside.
Just go with the flow.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/VailshireCap/status/1462056478487973894

Does this mean you don't have to eat cat food?

No cat food for me.

Pet food is just human food from the parts that don't appeal as delicious/high quality to humans and is considered low quality. The manufacturers grind it all up and repackage it as "pet food". The retailers jack up prices and market it as healthier for pets. The truth is: its cheaper and healthier if you just feed them regular food that you eat too.

Just make sure you dont give them food that they shouldn't eat. (chocolate, grapes, onions, garlic, salt/seasonings...)

Pet food is a marketing scam.

My late father was a truck driver, he owned one of those really large SCANIA trucks. I remember when I was a kid, he told me a funny story. He was travelling abroad with a couple of fellow drivers. So one night they went to the local supermarket to buy some canned food to eat. The food tasted really delicious, and they commented that this country had some really tasty canned food. When they collected the empty cans and remaining stuff to throw away, one of them noticed that the food was in fact dog food. They didn't spot it when they bought it from the supermarket! Nothing happened to them. They didn't buy it again though. When he came back he spoke normally, he didn't bark or anything.

It's fine to eat. But may be less safe due to the fact that pet food does not have to follow the same regulations as human food. Our aversion to eating pet food comes from the fact that its called "pet food". That makes it seem alien and dirty in our minds.

Another thing is that dogs seem to be way more tolerant to eat all kinds of foods that the vast majority of humans would not be able to tolerate.  When going on walks with my dog, I was pretty tolerant to let her eat quite a few things.. except for like bread and carbs.. I did not like for her to overly indulge in that kind of stuff if we encountered it during our walks, but she would grab dead squirrels, dead birds, dead fish or other variety of decomposing animals and even be chewing on them in competition with the maggots.. and sometimes it just stunk so badly from 20 feet away.. but she would sometimes just sample it.. but other times eat decent chunks of that crap, and most of the time she did not get sick from any of that, except maybe from time to time getting some runny stools.. and yeah I recall getting a little nauseous from my own eating of some raw seafood, and I ended up giving it to my dog and she had no issues. 

Oh by the way, I forgot that I did usually try to keep my dog from eating dead mice or rats or some kinds of animal carcuses that might have potentially died from poisoning... but if it just seemed to have been rot or road kill or some other sea creature that probably was not poisoned, then I did not really have any problems with her trying those out.. but surely, if she had already been sufficiently fed before the walk then she might not be acting as food desperate either.. One of my other theories was that it was nice to keep them a little hungry... hahahahahaha

......
The top spot goes to arm pit sniffer jobs.

Yes, Armpit Sniffers actually exist – and their noble sacrifice means you don’t have to smell quite as much sweat on your way to work. They’re employed by deodorant companies, and their day-to-day usually involves sniffing armpits in a hot room.

Speaking of cleanliness products....
I wonder if there's a job for sniffing....ahhhh nevermind...

Oh gawd...

You would go there.   

[Issa56]

Price more green again,
time to leave T A aside.
Just go with the flow.

So what do you think Bitcoin next target is?

[El duderino_]

Price more green again,
time to leave T A aside.
Just go with the flow.

So what do you think Bitcoin next target is?

As a wise man said

….

Where it has to be. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Price more green again,
time to leave T A aside.
Just go with the flow.

Haiku Saturday
You are doing it wrong man
It is on Sundays

[Arriemoller]

It's now Sunday here
Making haikus is kosher
But only today

[sirazimuth]

......


<snipped disgusting dog walk/roadkill story>... hahahahahaha
......

um Jay... did you make that up?

Well regardless, at least I don't have to cook supper tonight. I just lost my appetite. Thanx Jay!

   

[JimboToronto]

......


<snipped disgusting dog walk/roadkill story>... hahahahahaha
......

um Jay... did you make that up?

Well regardless, at least I don't have to cook supper tonight. I just lost my appetite. Thanx Jay!

   

That's actually a pretty tame dog food story. Dogs are disgusting animals that will eat almost anything.

I'll spare you the details of my most poignant dog food story except that it started with a couple hundred micrograms on a camping trip and ended with a couple of big doggie eyes staring up at me lovingly with a mouthful of toilet paper.

You connect the dots. 

[Hueristic]

Pet food is a marketing scam.

Not only your other points but pet food is specifically designed to smell good to humans so the pet owner is tricked into thinking their pet will love it when in fact if it was designed for the pet it would smell so rotten that a owner would toss it thinking its bad and never buy that brand a again. Its actually amusing if you think about it.

[sirazimuth]

That's actually a pretty tame dog food story. Dogs are disgusting animals that will eat almost anything.
....

Actually Jim, now you mention it, I do remember a former workmate
telling me about his endeavors of trying to cure his new dog of the habit of eating his own shit.

Oh gawwd