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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337046 times)
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OutOfMemory
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November 24, 2021, 09:34:56 PM


Why don't you put in a air/water heat pump, my neighbor had a system like yours and when it broke down he put in a heat pump, he said it saved him a lot of money on the electricity bill.

Good idea, all in all. I use a water-heatpump myself for the home, but this is a different story, because i always have about 8-9°C water temperature down in 128 meters below the ground.
In contrast, these air-water pumps perform pretty well in environmental temperatures above -5° Celsius, but if you get below that, their efficiency is degrading.
Another problem: Infrasonic noise. Some people suffer from hum that is produced and resonating in walls and/or ceilings in the right distance (single or multiple wavelength of the hum frequency), i'd recommend some sort of anti-vibration mount, or placing the thing further away from the house, with a solid structure in between, down a hill for example.

My three cents.
Reminds me of a guy I used to work with back in the 80s.
I was working at a CD factory and it had some big fans and a big duct system in the attic, one morning we found the guy sleeping in the attic next to the fans, he claimed that the ultra sounds from the fans calmed him down and helped him sleep.
I don't know, but he was overusing amphetamine, tall and scrawny with that weird way of walking these guys get and a bit of a weirdo. I suspect he was just homeless for a period.


LOL  Cheesy

I dug quite into that topic of infrasound and it seems to be amplified by some independent factors. In the end it's sound, so wavelength (modes) and distance, as well as mounting seems to worsen the issue. There were studies about configurations like 4 houses, arranged in a square manner, and one was fitted with the air pump, while the house in front of it had the most suffering residents. They monitored the frequency, calculated the distances and it seemed that the wall surfaces of the houses in between, 45° to the sound source, projected at a multiple of the wavelength onto the outer wall of the house in front. So the dominant vibration frequency of the compressor produced a wave at an even multiple of the length (or at wavelength) between the two houses and the pump, and they reflected and added up. Of course, the two reflecting houses didn't show as severe infrasound problems, because their walls directed to the center of the square the houses were arranged at were at a certain point of the wave cycle, while the "victim" house's wall was hit with the mirror image of the wave amplitude as originating at the pump.

Better arrange houses following Helmholtz' Law of frequency modes then...
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November 24, 2021, 10:01:25 PM


Explanation
philipma1957
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November 24, 2021, 10:04:19 PM

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

One more year?  Holy moley!

You are really rolling your own models, no?

Yeah, bearish, I know... But a realist too.

There's no point in sticking to some target ($100k+ in 2021), when said target becomes increasingly unreachable. PlanB's model is all nice & cute, and it could work under certain circumstances, but here we're talking about far too many uncertain parameters. Of course, this entire price dippening / suppressening / sidewaysening could just end up being a big outlier, and the price could spring back up at any time, reasserting PlanB's model. It's just that I don't currently see the dynamics of such a large UPpity action ($40k+) being able to fit inside the space on 1 month.

Early 2022? Likely.
Within 2022? A certainty (for me).

Yes.... but I was hung up on your assertion of "a year at most."  When i see such a specific statement in regards to time, I read it literally as having a start date at the time of the post and an end date one year later, which would be November 23, 2022... so getting to $100k at the end of that timeline surely seems to  either be some kind of new model, some BIG variation of existing models or just sloppy in terms of did you really mean "a year at most?"

Another thing is getting to supra $100k or the alternative prediction of figuring out what is going to be the top for this cycle.   I doubt also that you would be proclaiming that $100k would be the top - even if it were to come as late as November 2022  (is that even possible?).

Personally I doubt that any kind of delay into 2022 in respect to getting to supra $100k is anything bold enough to write home about, so my quibble is your getting into the second quarter or beyond for something as mediocre as $100k - without explaining MOAR better how you may have gotten there.

Another thing you seem to be treating some of the price prediction models a wee bit loosey goosey... so surely when we talk about some kind of small deviation from calendar year 2021 but then drag way out past the end of 2021 into the end of 2022, that just seems a step way too far for me in terms of attempting to either be rigorous in thinking or to really treat our currently valid and credible models with some kind of deference for the underlying data that support them ..and that does not mean that you have to kiss any PlanB rings or lick any guru deemed butt holes (yeah I went there.... not good for opsec for any purported guru or guru wanna be to be exposing such bodily parts to us mere plebs... hahahahahaha).

why are you knocking the licking of butt holes?

@nohomo
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November 24, 2021, 11:01:26 PM


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Hueristic
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November 24, 2021, 11:01:29 PM

As a side note I would just like to say that if I had a purely electrical heating system I would absolutely have a backup.

Even if you don't. Ours is gas/electric and when the power goes out, there's no electric to do the electricy things. Fortunately, we have a gas range so there's at least something available.

True and you can always run a furnace off a generator, trying to run straight electric methods off a generator is not viable.
OutOfMemory
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November 24, 2021, 11:43:53 PM
Merited by Hueristic (3)

As a side note I would just like to say that if I had a purely electrical heating system I would absolutely have a backup.

Even if you don't. Ours is gas/electric and when the power goes out, there's no electric to do the electricy things. Fortunately, we have a gas range so there's at least something available.

True and you can always run a furnace off a generator, trying to run straight electric methods off a generator is not viable.

I learned it the simple way in engineering school: You don't want to use linear motion dynamics (combustion cylinder) to create a circular movement to generate alternating current. This is the reason it's so inefficient.
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November 25, 2021, 12:01:33 AM


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November 25, 2021, 12:19:42 AM

True and you can always run a furnace off a generator, trying to run straight electric methods off a generator is not viable.

While that's true, cheap generators in the US tend to be 120V only and the furnace is 240. I've looked into whether some kind of upgrade would be possible but it seems like the answer is "it's complicated".
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November 25, 2021, 12:29:18 AM

True and you can always run a furnace off a generator, trying to run straight electric methods off a generator is not viable.

While that's true, cheap generators in the US tend to be 120V only and the furnace is 240. I've looked into whether some kind of upgrade would be possible but it seems like the answer is "it's complicated".

You can rewire a 120 for 240 if need be but i've seen tons of cheap generators on craigslist that supply 240v.

Just set a alert on craigslist and you can nab one cheap.

I almost grabbed a monster 50kwh diesel former military diesel for under a grand but someone got there first.
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November 25, 2021, 12:29:53 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5)

Peace of mind is something important I think.

Absolutely.
Setting goals and living on those, is a pretty right way of handling this kind of risks.
Retiring at 35 without any debt and some real estate, while preserving the vast majority of your stash, sounds a very good plan to me.

I wish I could fulfill what you have done!

Quote from: Anonymous link=topic=12156.msg169751#msg16975
I am pretty certain we are going to be very wealthy men -- even with a sum as small as 10 Bitcoins.
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November 25, 2021, 12:55:17 AM

This is a bear trap...

Just sayin'.

Strap in?  Or Strap on?  Pick your fav I guess...

Just quoting as a reminder...

One last reminder.  You all strapped?

Lol I could eat these words, but I am 90% sure we are going to see a rather violent turn pretty soon...
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November 25, 2021, 01:01:26 AM


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November 25, 2021, 01:20:45 AM

look 58k l👀  !!
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November 25, 2021, 01:35:20 AM

This is a bear trap...

Just sayin'.

Strap in?  Or Strap on?  Pick your fav I guess...

Just quoting as a reminder...

One last reminder.  You all strapped?
I guess some like to strap in, some to strap on.  Cheesy

Quote
size=1pt
Lol I could eat these words, but I am 90% sure we are going to see a rather violent turn pretty soon...

Did you write them in size=1pt so they would be easier to eat?  Tongue

(And for what it's worth, I feel in a similar way.)
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November 25, 2021, 01:44:42 AM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5), seljo (5)

Has there ever been a larger and more obvious bull trap than this?

<checks math and science notebook>

Nope
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November 25, 2021, 01:46:00 AM

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

75% of my stash goes nowhere this cycle. I have sold some at $60,000 & at $65,000. I even panic sold some at $57,xxx & $56,xxx recently. I have extracted a large amount of cash already & have some corn on an exchange which will be sold this year too. I’m waiting for hopefully better prices before the bull run ends on them though.

I can guarantee 75% of my stash isn’t touched this cycle. Some I’ve sold already though & that will total 25% before Christmas. I won’t regret it either. I will be retired at 35 with a new home without a mortgage, no debt, a lump sum of fiat to get me through to the next cycle. Probably look to invest in some stonks & maybe a small apartment or two to rent out also.

75% going nowhere though.
25% partially sold & will all be sold by New Year.

No regrets, after buying & HODLING since 2014 this is the first time I’ve extracted significant funds from bitcoin. I think I deserve it, less pressure & panic watching charts. Peace of mind is something important I think.

Well for me I have not sold anything yet, except for what little I have sold by using my Binance card.
I still believe there will be a blow of top in late December or early January. We have been following the pattern from the two previous cycles so far, I see no reason why we wouldn't keep doing it.
Remember, we have not had any type of real top yet, and I mean the type where you make a couple of years worth of salary over night a couple of nights in a row and then suddenly it drops like a stone. Before that occurs we have not reached the top as far as I'm concerned.
Still bloody annoying though.

Sure I largely agree with you on this particular point, Arriemoller - even though we may characterize the situation a wee bit differently.

Of course, our run to $64,895 in April had a lot of UP and then we end up revisiting it and making higher highs in the past 5 weeks or so.. and not even solidly piercing $65k, but instead dabbling around that price, which surely could end up playing out as failed attempts to frustrate our UPpity...

Even though there are a decent amount of folks who continue to argue various ways that bitcoin prices are manipulated, I personally believe that there are enough adversarial players in the BTC market that end up causing the BTC price to be less manipulated than some folks would like to make it out to be and if the bear whales could either stop the BTC price from going up or delay the BTC price from going up or cause it to go down, they would use whatever tools are at their disposal to cause such challenges to the UPpity narrative... and perhaps that is what will cause us to explode UPwardly at some point because there is ONLY so much that can be done to either fight the UP trend or to cause a reversal.. but we should not be putting it past any of the bearwhale players to try to be creative in whatever ways that they can.. whether it is the attempts at physical sales (whether cash or BTC) or information campaigns.. and sure it may well work until it does not....

But even if we end up getting the resumption of UPpity, the exponential UPPity that you seem to be describing seems to be towards the end of the cycle rather than at any other point, which surely means that there is a kind of a need for a ramping up before getting to that stage.. so yeah maybe in the end we agree that there are likely ongoing battles and battles and even  if we are not guaranteed any kind of blow off top, we have hardly any information to argue that a blow off top is not going to happen..... so we are more likely in better shape to presume that there is going to be a blow off top rather than not, even if whatever blow off top either ends up not occurring as we expected or ends up looking different in a variety of ways from our previous blow off tops (and we have seen those "blow off tops" at the end of cycles and we have also seen several variations of those blow off tops in the middle of cycles too... so blow off tops that appear to be the end of blow off tops, but end up NOT really being the blow off top that we thought that it was)....
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November 25, 2021, 02:01:25 AM


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November 25, 2021, 02:02:00 AM

This is a bear trap...

Just sayin'.

Strap in?  Or Strap on?  Pick your fav I guess...

Just quoting as a reminder...

One last reminder.  You all strapped?
I guess some like to strap in, some to strap on.  Cheesy

Quote
size=1pt
Lol I could eat these words, but I am 90% sure we are going to see a rather violent turn pretty soon...

Did you write them in size=1pt so they would be easier to eat?  Tongue

(And for what it's worth, I feel in a similar way.)

I did, and I have some 24pt sri racha fornt to cover them when the time comes... It WAS just confirmed by Proudhon...
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November 25, 2021, 02:32:12 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

How about a bit of sweet, sweet hopium:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/is-this-bitcoin-price-run-bringing-hyperbitcoinization

A large article with MANY salient points.

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In 2017, everyone was selling their bitcoin for a Lambo. In 2022, don't be surprised if people are selling their Lambos for bitcoin.
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November 25, 2021, 02:36:28 AM

This is a bear trap...

Just sayin'.

Strap in?  Or Strap on?  Pick your fav I guess...

Just quoting as a reminder...

One last reminder.  You all strapped?

Lol I could eat these words, but I am 90% sure we are going to see a rather violent turn pretty soon...

Without Proudhon we can't be sure. It might be a regular, expected correction or it may be a bear trap. Good lord, where is Proudhon's math when you need it?
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