Price thoughts as of 12/4.
In case you've missed it, we have had a fairly large drawdown in price very quickly over the last 24 hours. I have been working on some hopium so I can keep deluding myself from proudhon's science.
As I have been saying for some time, retail markets have been very thinly traded during this "cycle". Retail is more interested in dog coins and NFTs this time around.
Long exchange open interest futures have been rising for a couple of months. It is natural for these big futures imbalances to get "washed out" from time to time. And since the majority of futures trading still happens on retail exchanges when the contracts get executed because of price they settle on those exchanges. This is all done automatically and the sells execute into the retail order books.
Since the order books at retail exchanges CONTINUE to be anemic this can cause a fairly extreme price swing on these retail exchanges.
It is my assertion that bitcoin trade is happening elsewhere than the retail exchanges for the most part. But these exchanges still act as a price oracle for most other trading. Prices on a DEX or something like localbitcoins.com are tied to exchange prices. Coinbase, Finex, Stamp and Kraken often being seen as the metric. And of course the OTC desks at these entities operate based on that exchanges price.
Because of this I see a high likelihood of this being a STRONG over-correction and expect the price at the exchanges to bounce back as long as we are not entering an extended bear market. That makes this a bit of a March '20 event, and people taking long positions right now are likely to do well.
I expect that the institutional/family office/hedge fund type traders are lighting up the OTC desks open over the weekend, while the retail volume REMAINS anemic. I think we should see some good gains early next week as well if my theory is true.
I believe this market is out of balance. In my opinion, it will remain so until retail volume begins to pick up. This is NOT because retail volume is all that important. In fact, it is because retail PRICES are more important than they should be. These markets are trading differently than any other times in Bitcoin's history And the current forces with the market and news, and general zeitgeist are continuing to drive the price of Bitcion in a direction it is not natural for it to be going.
One more thought: People seem to be holding an awful lot of funerals for PlanB. And I would think his prediction of 100k in 2021, IS indeed likely not to come to pass at THIS point. Particularly with retail poised to sell in December to settle tax bills. But I would not write off his model entirely yet... It could take a dent here, but pick back up depending on how things go over the next several weeks. Depending on what happens next this could be a fairly quick V shaped dip.
Or maybe bitcoin is just dead this time...
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