Bitcoin - Welcome To The Big Leagues
Recent developments are undoubtedly a thorn in the side of the once-isolated crypto trading community, filled with many who after spending years mastering their specific market are now essentially in competition with firms backed by billions in capex and decades of experience. Because unless it’s also a coincidence that Tesla and Bitcoin have hit their high or low for the month on the same day 8 out of the last 15 months, it really appears that Bitcoin trades only as a composite of long ‘the next big thing’ FOMO and short U.S debt. There’s nothing wrong with that - the trade has done well. But it’s a slap in the face to the uncorrelated/digital gold/reserve asset narrative. And it’s a major blow to those who were looking for an ‘alternative’ investment. Increasing correlation with bonds and equities is the biggest threat to Bitcoin right now.
It’s possible and maybe even likely that this is temporary - but whatever needs to happen for Bitcoin to again decouple from greater markets hasn’t happened yet. In light of the past two weeks, can anybody seriously say right now that they think Bitcoin will end the year higher than where it is currently if the S&P 500 doesn't?
But to be fair, long term hodlers don't really have anything to worry about since if the world post-GFC is any guide, the current pullback in equities will bottom out soon and if it doesn’t - the Fed will just announce a pause in their tapering plans and at that point everyone should go even more all in because rest assured it will give way to new all time highs for the Nasdaq, home prices, inequality, and the newest member of the liquidity-firehose winners club, Bitcoin.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit-hedge.co%2Fimg%2Fbubble.jpg&t=665&c=iEGuLInAvgDO9g)
Yeah.. good luck with those nonsense correlation theories.....and supposed suggestion that correlation with bitcoin and equities is so obvious that even a caveman would recognize it.
What a bunch of nonsense.
These desperate status quo financial twats come up with supposed correlation quite frequently, and we see how well that worked out in March 2020.. .yeah in the short-term there were all kinds of fucktwats gloating about "obvious" correlation blah blah blah.. and how long did that supposed correlation nonsense last? They talked about it for a long time, even when such supposed correlation did not match actual facts... but since when did nonsense need to match facts?
What happened in March 2020-ish?
You going to comment on the substance of the article jojo or just hide behind some bullshit text snip-it that you posted... I know that you are likely not a correlation zealot or even a believer in status quo bullshit ideas, but do you believe the correlation baloney? Yes.. I know that there are guys spouting that correlation nonsense in this thread too...
Let's attempt to take it apart a wee bit.
Let's be charitable, and start BTC from $9k in February/March 2020... We see that in March 2020 there would have been slightly more than a 50% BTC price correction (down to $3,850), and then over the next year a bounce back that took BTC to more than a 7x price appreciation from its $9k starting point and even if we account for the woa-is-me 56% correction down to $28,600 in summer 2021, that $28,600 still would have been more than a 3x price appreciation from our $9k starting point.
And, even if we look at BTC's price now, where are we? Last week we were at $58k, which would have been more than 6x our $9k starting point, and even now at $49k, we are still around 5.5x our $9k starting point.
Where the hell is equities in all of this?
Oh equities are the same as BTC because we are going to start over and we are going to start to match BTC's price with equities in a shorter timeframe.. We are not going to start from $9k in February/March 2020, right? Instead we are going to select some random price point that is more convenient and show correlation from there, no?, and we are going to selectively choose some random price point in which BTC and equities were dropping and the same time and viola!!!! we are going to proclaim correlation.
Did I say nonsense?
Zoom out. WE do not have correlation, even if some people are so damned attached to short-term periods and want to assert that there must be correlation merely because during such and such snap-shot period we had correlation.
Good luck with those wanna believe correlation theories, and furthermore, don't be telling me that there is any kind of close approximation in what happened with equities - even if you attempt to be selective about the matter.... Instead how the hell do we get here? and where are we going from here? Good luck if you are listening to the seemingly desperate equities pumping folks.