Yet another report from Kraken Intelligence:
Kraken Intelligence — Taking a BreakShitcoin-sanitized overview:
- Bitcoin prices retraced from all-time highs in November — an unexpected turn for what has historically been a positive-yielding month. Will the trend persist into 2022 or is there cause for concern?
- Safe…For Now
Bitcoin’s retreat from $69K raised concerns of crypto entering a bear market. However, support was found at the key level of $54K, boosting optimism that the bull trend remains intact and the market dodged a large deleveraging event. While December averages a historical return of 13% for BTC, current price action is not trending like any other prior fourth quarter.
- Whale Watching
The number of Bitcoin whales (wallets holding >₿1,000) grew slightly in November to reach a 2-month high. Yet, the total holdings in those same wallets dropped, an indication that profit-taking may have factored into the price drop.
- Number Go Up
BTC technicals suggest that recent pullbacks are simply retesting levels of support, perhaps before a move higher.
Holy Cow.. you are correct.
There is a lot of shitcoin discussion in that report..so I merited you for saving us from the seeming shitcoin dominance of the overall report...
[edited out]
it's no longer people with much insight or knowledge about the currency or markets in general.
oh gawd..
you trying to make another overall
(wrong and likely irrelevant) assessment regarding how the BTC market participants have changed?
I personally find the mentality or others who are invested in Bitcoin quite interesting, especially their ludicrous theories, mainly because it's not representative or those who have been invested for a longer period of time, nor or users in this thread, or any statistical probability.
Yes.. interesting and largely irrelevant.. just like those shadows on the cavewall.
Bare in mind that around 50% of investors are currently new, so obviously this changes the dynamic, whether you like it or not.
Interesting thing about bitcoin is that there are always new investors. Yes... that's true.. but still a BIG so what.. at least so far in the ways that you are supposedly wanting to use such information.
Willy Woo has touched on this quite a lot, based on the blockchain data available, as well as exchange data. It's part of his argument for ending up in a super cycle based on the 100% increase in Bitcoiners every 2 years. Personally, I find it interesting, even if others do not.
Sure.. Willy Woo has good analysis and a variety of good arguments.. does not make him right about specfics regarding a supercyle.. even if he has some decently good ideas.
This is why I can see price taking a little longer than usual to recover, due to the current price structure (or time structure I should say).
It does not necessarily need to take a lot of time to recover.
Never said it did, I was pointing out that I can see why price could take a longer than expected, exactly like in summer. It didn't need to in summer either, but it did.
I was commenting on your vague-ass seemingly nonsense theory that we are supposedly going to get stuck between $30k and $70k for a year..
Nobody should ever be scared to see healthy consolidation or a correction in a bull market. Patience is a virtue.
Who said anyone is scared.. merely because someone is pointing out your nonsense.. including your wanting to hinge on minority theories about $10k, $20k or $30k when that is not even close to where we seem to be at, currently.
Many are fearful of the market right now, most of these are newbies who don't even know whether they should be buying, selling or hodling.
I doubt that is much different from previous cycles, and probably overall there is way more confidence in this cycle than there was in 2017... even though there are likely more DOWNity manipulation tools.. but even if there are more DOWNity manipulation tools, that does not mean that those DOWNity manipulation tools are going to be successful to stop the bull run that we are in, even if they seem to have been successful in undermining noman's land (at least temporarily).
What are these manipulation tools you talk of?
Financial instruments, such as futures...
Nobody ever talks about manipulation when price is going up, only down I see. Do you have any references?
I don't need any references. If there are more tools in the market in order to be able to attempt to cause BTC prices to go down without buying any BTC, then those kinds of tools can be used to attempt to manipulate BTC price.. whether they are successful or not may well be another story.
As far as I understand a whale simply wanted to cash out or panic sell and decided the spot market was a good place for that, hence why price dropped so quicklyt.
Have you heard about leverage?
have you heard about margin trading?
Have you heard that some BTC settlements are made OTC and other BTC trades are made on exchanges?
Have you heard that some BTC settlements are made without owning BTC and other BTC trades are made through owning BTC?
Each to their own... it provided some great BTFD opportunities, so I'm not going to discourage any whales from that emotional behaviour!
I don't claim to be any kind of expert in terms of what they can do or can't do, but I doubt that they give any shits about whether you are encouraging them or not.,. or even if you recognize, know or can theorize about what some peeps (whales or whatever) may be doing.
Don't get me wrong in terms of some thoughts that I am "into" manipulation theories that ONLY explain one side of BTC's price movements, and in that regard, I am not too much into manipulation theories in any kind of direction, but I am not going to deny that manipulation exists or to ignore various behind the scenes conduct that may well be happening.. whether it ends up affecting BTC price in one direction or another or it becomes a kind of wash.
Longer-term investors know there is no rush in these conditions, and simply take cheap Bitcoin as it comes back down to support.
Yes.,. .. so where is the balance going to be reached then?
To me the charts shows that this balance is already being reached, with the recent consolidation at support over the past few days. While newbies were panic selling, investors were accumulating. I can't say the same for the wick down to $42K, that looked more a cascade of liquidations, after a panic seller got impatient and started panic selling even quicker, not realising he/she/they were triggering such a crash.
Yes.. a liquidation event.. fair enough. I doubt that it was triggered by one seller... but whatever.
Seems to me that we are in a bullmarket until otherwise, and who gives any shits about the scared newbies. Scared newbies get reckt in every bullrun.. so we need not be weighing them as if they were some kind of significant meaningful factor that we now need to take into account.. when there is already a tendency to run them over like a steamroller anyhow.
Personally I think the newbie mentality of around 50% of those invested in Bitcoin right now is extremely relevant, as it's a great signal of what not to do.
I'm sorry you fail to see the value in that, given how rekt they routinely get in bull markets, as well as bear markets.
Yes.. newbies.. a likely wash. Good luck with your newbies in the market theory.. you are likely going to need it, if you are working your price analysis to give much if any weight to that kind of wash-laden information.
I mean look at Billy for example, he's still waiting for $10K or whatever, and the reality is he's not the only one.
Fuck Billy...
He is hardly representative.
He is a troll at best, and if you actually believe that Billy actual represents any kind of meaningful person then you are likely delusional yourself.
He's not representative of most Bitcoiners no, but newbies are easily drawn to his and others mentality that price could drop 50%+ again from here, on a permanent basis it seems. Obviously I barely even think this is possible, without the black swan event you suggested, but this plays on many newbies emotions that are fast becoming a dominant force in this market.
yeah.. newbies and their mentality is about as dominant as one of my little fingers in terms of both of my hands (and my feet for that matter).
I still remember in summer, when price rebounded to $40K, most newbie investors I knew were looking at a chart that was going viral with an arrow pointed to $10K or some similar stupid level, based on the idea that $40K rebound was a lower high and therefore price would go down. Claiming it was like 2017, without any real analysis to back up such a claim. The classic newbie becoming a TA expert overnight lol.
I literally had to draw a line to $1 million to show how anyone can draw a line on a chart, but without much explanation apart from "looks similar", it doesn't mean anything.
Ok... so you recognize how meaningless the newbies were in May, June, July but you still want to give them some meaning this time around? Pretty soon my eyes are going to roll into the back of my head.. if you do not stop with some of this newbies impacting the BTC price dynamics nonsense...
And you would not want to be responsible for my loss of vision, would you?
Sure, I know that anything can happen, but it seems that quite a bit of attention is being given to such highly unlikely scenarios.. and sure even you are saying that going below $46k could put some of those scenarios back into play.. but to me it seems that we would surely need pretty black swan events to be visiting $10k or $20k and we might even need a black swan event to get down to $30k-- even though of course, $30k has some kinds of outrageousness possibilities (maybe less than 15% odds?) that are quite a bit higher than $10k or $20k which seem to be less than 1.5% or 3% odds respectively..
Not sure where you heard me thinking that dropping below $46K would meaning creating lower prices than $30K, you must have me mistaken with those newer investors I referenced
I thought that you said that if we move below $46k then it opens up more likelihood for some of the lower numbers.. I am not mixing you up..
Lower numbers yes, it would likely open the door for $40K re-test, and below there I believe the bull market would end (closing below the 50 Week MA) and price would then consolidate between $30K-40K, or at least re-test the next level of volume support around $36K (which is between $30K-$40K for reference sake). Obviously another wick doesn't count, just like $42K meant nothing long-term.
Yes.. you really seem to be latching onto giving way more emphasis to the end of the bull market than it deserves.. but sure whatever.. you can have whatever theories that you like.. even if you seem to be hinging on theories of minority likeliehood..
So yes, if price moves down further I think it would go lower, but that doesn't mean I think the annual lows of $28K would be broken, far from it. I'm under the impression these lows will likely never be broken unless there is a black swan event. Simply because there has been considerable amount of institutional investment around $30-$40K to allow this to happen, they will instead defend their long-term positions.
Fair enough.. but still $30k to $70k for the next year.. not seeming too likely.. but sure, anything can happen.. I will give you that.
As I've stated before, can't be bothered to quote, closing below key support would provide a good argument that the bull market is over, for now,
You see... you just said it again. You believe that the bull market is likely to be over soon.. and I think that we are quite a ways from reaching that conclusion.. even though I do understand that it is possible that there is no further UP.. and $69k ends up being the high for this cycle.. which means that the bull market is over.. I just think that it is a minority likelihood at this time which means that I believe that we are still in a bull market.. at least until we are not.
Again, you misunderstood me. I said
IF price moves below key support, which it has not done so.
I am not misunderstanding you.
As I've said repeatedly in this thread, I see no evidence that the bull market is over, again you have misunderstood my analysis.
Yes.. even though you see no evidence that the bull market is over, you still want to spend a lot of time talking about what if it were over? Go on then, tell me more about what if the bull market were to be over even though you do not believe it to be.. does that make sense? You are contributing to your own talking outside of both sides of your mouth, no? You want to be academic? so what.
Finding support in the $49K-51K only made me more certain that price is in a bull market, not less. Recent price action has fortunately proved so far that we are still in a bull market.
I am glad that you think that..
I also think now based on price structure that if the bull market ends, given the wide $30K-70K range in the past 10 months (fact not opinion),
Yes a fact with misleading implications.
I don't see a bear market starting either, but further consolidation.
yes.. we are likely going to have consolidation, until we don't which is likely not going to take that long to get us back into noman's land, which I currently believe is in the neighborhood of $62k -ish to $92k -ish.
So we likely have resistance in the sub-noman's land region.. and then we may well have resistance in the $92k to $112k region and then our next arena is $112k to $200k and then supra $200k... since we are currently in a bullrun, these are the most relevant areas to watch.. first the pre-noman's land area and then noman's land and then the etc etc price areas.. as I already mentioned.
and that given price is in a trading range of $30-70K,
Oh gawd.. that is way too damned broad.. I doubt that we are currently in a $30k to $70k trading range..
Please have a look at the chart, price has been between $28K and $69K for the past 10 months, so I was rounding.
So what.
We are currently pre-noman's land.. your large range of the last year is largely irrelevant in terms of attempting an reasonable analysis of where we are at how we got here or where we might be going, even though it is factually correct.
This has been the trading range, unless you know of other trades that have been occurring OTC or otherwise outside of this range, this IS the current price range long-term.
Yeah.. believe it all that you like.. good luck with those vague boundaries and your belief that they are relevant in terms of attempting to make a meaningful analysis..
Nor am I implying that price is stuck on that range, but that trades have been occurring between these prices.
Again. So what?
This is fact not opinion.
Who cares? yes.. you do ... but still.. ? Do we want to attempt to get into the meat of matters rather than just throwing out meaningless, largely irrelevant and without a context nonsense?
I know that you are getting mad.. that's on you.
Probably we could assert that we are currenty in a $45k to $55k trading range.. probably too early to call, exactly because we just corrected down to $41,967 a few days ago.. so currently in the midst of a bounce back from that.. and let's see where it goes and if we get back into noman's land.. which seems likely to me.. but hey.. we are not there, yet.
Of course, in the shorter-term, price is currently in a $46K to (checks price) $52K range. You could even say it's in a $42K to $61K range longer-term. It's all depend on time-frame, not opinion nor perspective.
I think that I did just adjust my thinking to those parameters.. we are in pre-noman's land territory.. which noman's territory is now in the ballpark of $62k to $92k.. as I just mentioned.
it's most likely to stay there - maybe for another year.
I doubt it.
Please avoid misquoting me, given how often you misunderstand me.
Who is misquoting you? not me.
I don't mind the misunderstandings, but the misrepresentations are simply quite rude.
I doubt that misrepresentations are going on. If you believe that you are not being understood well enough, then make yourself more clear. I feel that I am making sufficiently good enough representations, and if you believe I got it wrong then state it.. what you getting so worked up about... no one is purposefully maligning you.. you might be saying a bunch of inconsistent shit because you are trying to keep 10 balls in the air when it may well be better to focus on keeping three or four in the air because 10 is unmanageable and confusing...and just going to lead to tragedies.
I said if price drops below key support, we'd likely remain in the same wide trading range for another year, as we have done so already for nearly a year in a healthy manner.
Yes.. and I disagree.
This is simply as if key support is broken, it'd confirm this 10 month trading range has been consolidation, not a continued uptrend as I currently believe is the most likely theory based on available data. Obviously this consolidation hasn't been confirmed, this was a what if scenaio. These theoretical scenarios DO NOT imply that I think they were happen, hence they are theories. I think this is much of the confusion here, I'm discussing cause and effect, not most likely scenarios here.
discuss what you like and if it causes confusion then that is one of the risks.. so it seems
Why bother with these unlikely theories? Because people are curious as to what is likely to happen if support breaks, and as I said it's much less of a concern than 2013 or 2017 bubble pops.
Fair enough... There are members who do talking about unlikely scenarios.. and they may well get backlash.. so do what you like.
Also the obvious of being prepared for any scenario, so as to never be surprised, confused or upset about price movements, and simply benefit from adequate risk management.
Sure. We should be prepared for either UP or down.. I am not against that, especially since I also talk about being prepared for UP or DOWN frequently, too.
Not something I've really considered as that likely either, or necessarily that worrying, although sure anything is possible.
Seems like a minority scenario, but hey you can frame your tentative theory any way that you like. I prefer to stick with stock to flow, the four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects as still being driving forces that are keeping up in a likely bull market. and $70k just happens to be around the middle of Noman's land.. Hey.. I might have to readjust noman's land based on this latest correction to call the new noman's land to be $61k to $96k or something like that... to early to reformulate that aspect.. because we are still in the midst of recovering from the liquidation of longs that dropped us to $41,967 and to figure out how much of a bounce we are going to have or if we might get stuck in pre-noman's land prior to reentering the tentatively new noman's land.
Agreed, I also think it's a minority scenario, given the bull market has recently shown it's strength and confirmed itself further with a pattern of long-term support holding. We're certainly more in a bull cycle now after re-testing this support than we were when price was rejected from ATH, that much is certain statistically speaking. Now we have a solid pattern of price consistently finding support, it's extremely healthy.
I'm merely considering all the possibilities here, as I always do. So far price remains predictable and taking the most probable outcome, even more so since the crash. Rejected from resistance, bouncing from support, etc. That's why I'd consider the current 10 month long wide trading range to remain in tact, if price moves below key support. This doesn't mean price will drop below key support either.
ok Fair enough.
Poll
