I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
You could generally argue that he got lucky with that, but whether luck or skill he was right after all. Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.
Assuming you are talking about Tone.
Can't like the guy.
Correct and yes, he's far from likeable
1. He's constantly virtue signalling as a "toxic maximalist" for social media clout. Annoying.
Yup, he puts the
toxicity in maximalism, as opposed to the fundamentals unfortunately.
2. What the heck is that crazy numerology he at least used to use? Maybe it's a legit market analysis but it looks more like Oijia board use to me. some 1-9 thing.
It's called TD Sequential, or now TI I think due to some copyright issues. He still uses it, quite religiously, mainly as sells the code. Apparently it's popular in wall street, or least he successfully used it there, though I fail to really believe that. It's not easy to explain, but based on the idea that candles will correct usually 1-4, or change trends until an 8 or a 9. It's only really reliable about 30-40% of the time I'd say.
There is the advantage that you can see when it's relevant on different time-frames with back-testing, and when it's completely not. For example at the moment on the 3 Day chart it looks relevant:
In summary, the 9 is when you'd be taking profits or buying back into the market, which at least the 9 Buy signal back in October (that changed to a Green 1 when price eventually went back above the Red 5), was relatively useful. In August it also claimed a top, but then would have been invalidated with price moving above it basically. It's not an indicator I'd ever use on it's own, that's for sure, way too unreliable.
The fact he's never been able to create a successful buy/sell script using this indicator should say a lot, while there are many others out there that are successful for generating profits, even simple MA crossovers for example. While it's worth noting that these indicators can make good profits, it won't necessarily be better % gains than hodling, but can be ways to increase $ values in a low-risk manner.
3. He wrong 50% of the time like a coinflip, IMO.
While probably true, I can't deny that, probably neither would he, this is how he makes his money. Like many others conservative traders out there. Some people even make money being wrong 60-70% of the time! He only speculates on a 3:1 or 4:1 risk/reward ratio, at a minimum. So half the time he might lose X, but then the other half he'll gain 3X or 4X. Overall, up 1.5X to 2X basically.
I can't remember the name of the "system" that he and some guy (who passed away RIP) will shilling back ~218 where they were CONSTANTLY saying we would be dumping to sub 1k prices. It was like the "supersystem" or something. He really hung his hat on that failed prediction.
Yeh "Hyperwave Theory" as I previously referenced. Epic fail basically. At least the guy who invented it - Tyler Jenks RIP - only treated it as a theory, and instead used a different more effective strategy using simple moving averages, in order to be buying back in around $6K to something similar in 2019, exactly when Tone was taking profits. He probably sold his stash to him haha. In fairness though, I don't think he ever claimed $1K
would happen, but that it
could, based on a specific theory of 100 years worth of data from traditional markets. But alas, BTC is different.
Not that I'm here to defend him either, I've always been highly critical.
Oh, and *YOU* have him beat 10 ways for quality TA woek!
While I realise that's intended as a compliment, I really don't think that's hard to achieve
Tone is stuck with an extremely rigid narrow-minded analysis of data with his sequential system, that as referenced isn't even useful half the time, so he misses a lot. Most things probably. Whereas I actually bother to look at at least a handful of different indicators or metrics, even if I don't always present them here, ideally up to a dozen different variables to factor in (especially on-chain ie data fundamentals).
It's all good and well sticking to a simple system of data analysis, such as "naked trading", MAs, etc, but it's only reliable when the underlying indicator you're using is accurate, which his is not ironically.
Anyway... good luck to him, I suppose...
He'll probably need it to be honest.
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